Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#58
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#87
Pace67.6#233
Improvement-1.2#260

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#46
First Shot+4.7#65
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#60
Layup/Dunks+5.8#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#270
Freethrows+1.5#98
Improvement+0.6#123

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#93
First Shot+3.0#77
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#224
Layups/Dunks+0.3#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#48
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement-1.7#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.1% 16.7% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.9% 16.6% 7.3%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 9.5
.500 or above 50.7% 52.7% 25.2%
.500 or above in Conference 16.8% 17.4% 10.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 6.0% 10.0%
First Four4.4% 4.6% 2.6%
First Round13.7% 14.4% 5.7%
Second Round6.5% 6.8% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 12
Quad 23 - 36 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 328 Mercyhurst W 70-47 97%     1 - 0 +9.9 -5.9 +16.7
  Fri, Nov 7 288 Boston University W 76-52 95%     2 - 0 +14.0 +6.9 +11.1
  Mon, Nov 10 319 Cleveland St. W 110-63 97%     3 - 0 +34.7 +23.3 +8.9
  Fri, Nov 14 114 @DePaul W 81-79 61%     4 - 0 +8.3 +15.8 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 25 Virginia L 78-83 30%     4 - 1 +9.9 +9.2 +0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 87 South Carolina W 79-77 63%     5 - 1 +8.0 +16.9 -8.7
  Thu, Nov 27 53 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 46%     5 - 2 +5.3 +8.6 -3.1
  Wed, Dec 3 40 @Wisconsin L 73-85 30%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +2.9 +7.4 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 6 31 Ohio St. L 82-86 45%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +6.6 +11.3 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 13 316 Jackson St. W 93-53 97%     6 - 4 +27.9 +13.6 +12.8
  Tue, Dec 16 212 Valparaiso W 79-63 93%    
  Sat, Dec 20 54 Butler L 79-80 48%    
  Tue, Dec 30 299 Howard W 84-64 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 103 Minnesota W 74-66 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 12 @Michigan St. L 65-77 14%    
  Sun, Jan 11 133 @Rutgers W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Jan 14 14 Illinois L 76-81 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 26 Nebraska L 74-77 40%    
  Wed, Jan 21 34 @USC L 76-83 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 30 @UCLA L 69-77 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 104 Penn St. W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 47 Washington W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Feb 4 14 @Illinois L 73-84 15%    
  Sun, Feb 8 23 @Iowa L 67-76 21%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 71-86 9%    
  Sat, Feb 14 26 @Nebraska L 71-80 22%    
  Wed, Feb 18 94 Maryland W 80-73 73%    
  Tue, Feb 24 27 @Indiana L 71-80 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 66 Oregon W 78-74 64%    
  Wed, Mar 4 7 Purdue L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Mar 7 103 @Minnesota W 71-69 57%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.6 0.2 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.9 1.9 0.1 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.6 1.8 0.1 12.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 3.3 6.7 3.2 0.2 0.0 13.6 13th
14th 0.1 2.2 6.5 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.2 14th
15th 0.1 1.3 4.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 10.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.7 0.9 0.1 8.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.5 11.8 15.1 16.4 14.9 11.8 7.9 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 20.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 3.4% 96.6% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.4% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.1% 97.9% 0.9% 96.9% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
12-8 2.5% 94.4% 0.8% 93.6% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.3%
11-9 4.8% 79.9% 0.4% 79.5% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 1.0 79.8%
10-10 7.9% 57.8% 0.4% 57.4% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.0 3.4 57.6%
9-11 11.8% 23.9% 0.2% 23.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.1 9.0 23.8%
8-12 14.9% 5.6% 0.1% 5.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 14.0 5.5%
7-13 16.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.3 0.3%
6-14 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 15.1
5-15 11.8% 11.8
4-16 7.5% 7.5
3-17 3.8% 3.8
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.1% 0.2% 15.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.0 3.6 3.8 0.3 83.9 15.9%