Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.5#7
Expected Predictive Rating+23.2#8
Pace63.7#320
Improvement-1.0#251

Offense
Total Offense+13.2#1
First Shot+10.3#6
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#31
Layup/Dunks+4.0#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#74
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-1.2#281

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#19
First Shot+6.8#23
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#152
Layups/Dunks+8.0#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#301
Freethrows+5.8#2
Improvement+0.2#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.3% 6.2% 3.0%
#1 Seed 27.8% 31.0% 19.6%
Top 2 Seed 58.8% 63.6% 46.8%
Top 4 Seed 89.7% 92.5% 82.6%
Top 6 Seed 97.7% 98.5% 95.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
Average Seed 2.5 2.4 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.8% 97.6%
Conference Champion 18.8% 20.3% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Second Round94.9% 95.9% 92.4%
Sweet Sixteen68.6% 70.5% 63.9%
Elite Eight40.5% 42.6% 35.3%
Final Four21.0% 22.7% 16.9%
Championship Game10.4% 11.4% 7.9%
National Champion4.8% 5.3% 3.5%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 57 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 112 - 7
Quad 26 - 118 - 7
Quad 36 - 023 - 7
Quad 43 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 276 Evansville W 82-51 99%     1 - 0 +22.0 +17.5 +8.6
  Fri, Nov 7 149 Oakland W 87-77 97%     2 - 0 +7.7 +9.1 -1.4
  Thu, Nov 13 15 @Alabama W 87-80 50%     3 - 0 +27.6 +22.3 +5.4
  Sun, Nov 16 65 Akron W 97-79 91%     4 - 0 +23.4 +18.2 +4.6
  Thu, Nov 20 76 Memphis W 80-71 88%     5 - 0 +16.6 +14.7 +2.2
  Fri, Nov 21 24 Texas Tech W 86-56 71%     6 - 0 +44.9 +23.6 +22.9
  Fri, Nov 28 333 Eastern Illinois W 109-62 99.5%    7 - 0 +33.4 +28.8 +3.4
  Tue, Dec 2 133 @Rutgers W 81-65 92%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +20.7 +17.5 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 6 4 Iowa St. L 58-81 56%     8 - 1 -4.1 -0.9 -4.9
  Wed, Dec 10 103 Minnesota W 85-57 95%     9 - 1 2 - 0 +29.4 +19.2 +12.3
  Sat, Dec 13 88 Marquette W 79-59 94%     10 - 1 +22.9 +14.5 +9.9
  Sat, Dec 20 28 Auburn W 79-73 72%    
  Mon, Dec 29 124 Kent St. W 91-70 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 40 @Wisconsin W 80-74 70%    
  Wed, Jan 7 47 Washington W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Jan 10 104 Penn St. W 86-67 96%    
  Wed, Jan 14 23 Iowa W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 34 @USC W 80-75 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 30 @UCLA W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 14 Illinois W 80-74 70%    
  Tue, Jan 27 27 @Indiana W 75-72 60%    
  Sun, Feb 1 94 @Maryland W 81-69 86%    
  Sat, Feb 7 66 Oregon W 82-67 92%    
  Tue, Feb 10 26 @Nebraska W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 23 @Iowa W 71-69 58%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 75-78 39%    
  Fri, Feb 20 27 Indiana W 78-69 78%    
  Thu, Feb 26 12 Michigan St. W 73-67 69%    
  Sun, Mar 1 31 @Ohio St. W 78-74 64%    
  Wed, Mar 4 58 @Northwestern W 78-70 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 40 Wisconsin W 83-71 85%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.2 6.1 4.0 0.9 18.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 7.5 11.2 8.2 2.8 0.2 31.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.8 7.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.7 1.8 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.4 0.1 7.1 5th
6th 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.2 4.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 6.8 10.5 13.9 16.8 16.3 13.8 8.8 4.1 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 95.7% 4.0    3.2 0.7
18-2 68.8% 6.1    3.5 2.5 0.1
17-3 37.9% 5.2    2.0 2.7 0.5 0.0
16-4 13.5% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.8% 18.8 10.2 7.1 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.1% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.2 3.3 0.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.8% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 1.3 6.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.8% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 1.6 7.0 5.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.3% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 1.8 5.9 7.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.8% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 2.2 3.3 7.4 5.0 1.0 0.1 100.0%
14-6 13.9% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.8 1.1 4.4 5.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.5% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 3.4 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.8% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 4.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 4.1% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 4.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.3% 100.0% 1.8% 98.2% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 1.0% 98.4% 1.9% 96.5% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4%
8-12 0.4% 87.6% 87.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.6%
7-13 0.1% 46.4% 3.6% 42.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 44.4%
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 15.0% 84.9% 2.5 27.8 31.0 20.2 10.7 5.5 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 7.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3