Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Troy 20.1%   14   4 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 6 +0.7      -0.7 182 +1.4 123 69.4 189 +0.4 164 0.0 1
153 Arkansas St. 17.7%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0.4      +0.5 154 -0.1 169 78.6 17 +3.6 120 0.0 1
159 Marshall 15.5%   7 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +0.1      +0.5 153 -0.4 176 71.4 132 +3.4 127 0.0 1
176 South Alabama 12.7%   7 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 7 -1.1      -0.4 176 -0.7 191 63.1 333 +6.2 95 0.0 1
183 James Madison 9.7%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1.6      +1.9 122 -3.5 289 65.0 298 +0.4 166 0.0 1
202 Southern Miss 6.9%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.8      -0.8 184 -1.9 239 69.1 197 -2.3 205 0.0 1
216 Old Dominion 5.4%   2 - 8 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 8 -3.4      -1.3 199 -2.1 242 70.6 162 -7.0 271 0.0 1
231 Georgia Southern 3.6%   6 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -4.0      -0.6 180 -3.4 288 75.9 40 -2.2 203 0.0 1
239 Texas St. 3.1%   5 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -4.4      -3.9 271 -0.5 181 65.5 282 -4.7 239 0.0 1
243 Coastal Carolina 2.8%   5 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4.7      -4.3 286 -0.5 180 72.1 113 -1.5 189 0.0 1
259 Appalachian St. 2.2%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -5.4      -4.1 279 -1.3 213 59.9 364 -4.4 236 0.0 1
325 Louisiana 0.1%   1 - 10 0 - 0 7 - 23 6 - 12 -9.7      -7.9 353 -1.9 233 62.2 349 -15.5 349 0.0 1
334 Georgia St. 0.1%   1 - 9 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 13 -10.6      -7.5 347 -3.1 280 71.8 122 -13.1 335 0.0 1
358 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 8 0 - 0 4 - 24 3 - 15 -14.3      -7.1 341 -7.1 352 72.3 110 -20.7 363 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 203 Southern 83 239 Texas St. 86   
Wed, Dec 10 159 Marshall 77 145 Western Kentucky 61   
Thu, Dec 11 259 Appalachian St. 67 287 East Carolina 54   
Sat, Dec 13 159 Marshall 76 143 Wright St. 74   
Sat, Dec 13 153 Arkansas St. 76 210 Rice 77   
Sat, Dec 13 60 Mississippi 71 202 Southern Miss 67   
Sat, Dec 13 75 George Mason 73 216 Old Dominion 61   
Sat, Dec 13 243 Coastal Carolina 61 91 Grand Canyon 82   
Sat, Dec 13 231 Georgia Southern 91 315 West Georgia 85   
Sat, Dec 13 334 Georgia St. 77 252 Jacksonville St. 73   
Sat, Dec 13 325 Louisiana 44 179 Louisiana Tech 65   
Sat, Dec 13 33 Miami (FL) 104 358 Louisiana Monroe 79   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 147 Troy 71 110 UAB 77 72%   
Sun, Dec 14 146 North Texas 63 176 South Alabama 65 54%   
Sun, Dec 14 259 Appalachian St. 67 95 High Point 78 84%   
Wed, Dec 17 183 James Madison 74 216 Old Dominion 76 55%   
Wed, Dec 17 153 Arkansas St. 75 239 Texas St. 74 57%   
Wed, Dec 17 176 South Alabama 77 358 Louisiana Monroe 67 83%   
Thu, Dec 18 259 Appalachian St. 68 243 Coastal Carolina 65 59%   
Thu, Dec 18 325 Louisiana 62 202 Southern Miss 72 83%   
Thu, Dec 18 231 Georgia Southern 82 334 Georgia St. 73 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 3.6 29.0 17.4 13.3 10.5 8.3 6.2 5.0 3.8 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Arkansas St. 3.8 25.8 17.3 13.4 10.6 8.8 7.0 5.5 4.0 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
Marshall 4.2 19.9 16.8 13.6 11.0 9.5 7.8 6.5 5.2 4.0 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
South Alabama 4.7 15.8 13.7 12.6 11.8 10.3 8.8 7.7 6.3 5.1 3.7 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.1
James Madison 5.4 10.8 11.7 11.2 10.9 10.2 9.2 8.7 7.8 6.7 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.2
Southern Miss 5.9 8.6 9.2 9.8 10.1 10.6 9.9 9.3 8.8 7.8 6.1 4.8 3.1 1.5 0.5
Old Dominion 6.4 6.4 7.9 9.0 9.1 10.2 9.4 9.8 9.3 9.2 7.5 6.0 3.9 1.8 0.5
Georgia Southern 6.8 5.0 6.6 7.8 8.5 9.1 9.2 10.0 9.7 9.5 8.6 7.2 5.1 2.7 0.9
Texas St. 7.5 3.6 4.9 5.9 7.0 8.1 8.8 9.5 10.3 10.8 10.8 9.3 6.6 3.4 1.1
Coastal Carolina 7.3 3.9 5.7 6.6 7.6 8.5 9.1 9.7 9.5 10.4 9.8 8.5 6.1 3.5 1.3
Appalachian St. 7.9 2.6 4.2 5.1 6.2 7.6 8.4 9.1 10.3 10.7 10.8 10.4 8.0 5.0 1.5
Louisiana 10.8 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.8 5.7 8.0 10.7 15.5 20.8 18.1 10.3
Georgia St. 11.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.7 5.6 8.2 12.9 17.9 26.2 18.3
Louisiana Monroe 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.5 6.7 13.7 25.8 45.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.3 6.6 10.0 13.2 15.1 15.0 13.5 9.8 5.7 2.4 0.6
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.8 7.2 10.9 13.5 15.2 15.0 12.8 8.9 5.0 1.8 0.4
Marshall 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.4 6.0 8.9 12.2 14.4 15.5 14.2 11.0 6.9 3.5 1.4 0.2
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.6 10.6 13.7 14.9 14.9 12.3 8.8 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.2
James Madison 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.4 9.7 12.3 14.3 14.1 13.3 10.2 6.8 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1
Southern Miss 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.1 8.0 10.9 13.3 14.8 14.0 11.7 8.4 5.2 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.4 6.1 9.3 12.6 14.1 14.5 12.8 10.4 7.2 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.5 7.4 10.4 13.2 14.3 14.0 11.6 9.1 5.9 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.0 9.7 12.6 14.2 14.4 12.9 10.3 6.9 4.4 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.5 8.6 11.9 13.7 14.2 13.1 10.6 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.3 7.4 10.5 12.9 14.4 14.1 12.0 9.1 6.2 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.3 2.0 5.3 9.9 14.5 16.6 16.4 13.1 9.6 6.1 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 5 - 13 1.3 5.1 9.8 14.1 16.6 15.3 13.4 10.1 6.4 3.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 5.0 13.0 19.5 19.7 16.9 11.6 7.1 3.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 29.0% 18.5 7.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 25.8% 16.1 6.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 19.9% 11.4 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 15.8% 8.9 4.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison 10.8% 5.8 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 8.6% 4.3 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 6.4% 3.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 5.0% 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 3.6% 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 3.9% 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.5 7.0 2.6 0.2 79.9 0.0%
Arkansas St. 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.0 7.8 3.3 0.2 82.3 0.0%
Marshall 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 4.4 6.8 3.0 0.2 84.5 0.0%
South Alabama 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.5 2.9 0.2 87.3 0.0%
James Madison 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.2 3.3 0.4 90.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.1 0.9 93.1 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.1 94.6 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 96.4 0.0%
Texas St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 96.9 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 97.2 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 97.8 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 20.1% 0.0% 20.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 17.7% 0.0% 17.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 15.5% 0.0% 15.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 12.7% 0.0% 12.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 9.7% 0.0% 9.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.9% 0.2% 6.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.4% 1.0% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.1% 0.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.8% 0.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0
2nd Round 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0