Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
115 Troy 45.2%   13   13 - 6 8 - 1 +3.4      +2.8 101 +0.7 140 66.5 245 +4.5 97 +8.0 1
151 Arkansas St. 18.7%   11 - 8 5 - 4 +0.6      +1.6 124 -1.1 211 78.4 13 +1.9 136 -0.7 3
163 Marshall 12.6%   12 - 7 5 - 3 -0.2      +0.7 144 -0.9 200 72.8 78 +0.7 152 -1.9 5
190 South Alabama 8.2%   12 - 6 5 - 3 -2.0      -2.5 237 +0.5 151 64.1 307 +1.0 148 -1.6 4
202 Appalachian St. 4.4%   11 - 9 6 - 4 -2.6      -2.8 250 +0.2 162 60.1 362 -2.3 209 -3.5 8
210 James Madison 1.9%   9 - 11 3 - 6 -3.0      +0.6 145 -3.7 287 64.6 294 -3.5 221 -6.4 11
232 Old Dominion 1.0%   5 - 15 3 - 6 -4.2      -2.8 251 -1.3 221 71.2 116 -7.3 283 -7.1 12
237 Coastal Carolina 2.9%   12 - 9 6 - 4 -4.3      -3.6 275 -0.7 191 69.0 174 -1.0 185 -2.4 7
246 Georgia Southern 1.9%   11 - 9 5 - 4 -4.7      -0.4 177 -4.3 298 74.7 43 -3.0 218 -2.4 6
262 Southern Miss 0.8%   9 - 11 5 - 5 -5.4      -4.4 290 -1.0 207 70.6 135 -4.5 231 -6.3 10
269 Georgia St. 1.9%   7 - 12 6 - 3 -5.9      -5.7 319 -0.2 173 71.1 121 -4.6 233 +0.7 2
275 Texas St. 0.3%   9 - 11 4 - 6 -6.5      -5.1 309 -1.3 219 66.9 233 -5.8 251 -6.1 9
314 Louisiana 0.0%   5 - 16 3 - 6 -9.2      -7.2 341 -2.0 238 60.3 360 -11.1 332 -9.7 13
361 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 18 0 - 9 -15.9      -8.4 352 -7.5 354 75.2 38 -24.9 364 -22.3 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 246 Georgia Southern 78 115 Troy 83   
Sat, Jan 24 151 Arkansas St. 81 269 Georgia St. 82   
Sat, Jan 24 237 Coastal Carolina 85 262 Southern Miss 67   
Sat, Jan 24 210 James Madison 82 275 Texas St. 57   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 151 Arkansas St. 85 232 Old Dominion 77 77%   
Wed, Jan 28 163 Marshall 76 275 Texas St. 72 63%   
Thu, Jan 29 237 Coastal Carolina 66 190 South Alabama 71 70%   
Thu, Jan 29 210 James Madison 69 115 Troy 78 81%   
Thu, Jan 29 202 Appalachian St. 66 262 Southern Miss 67 51%   
Thu, Jan 29 269 Georgia St. 66 314 Louisiana 65 51%   
Thu, Jan 29 246 Georgia Southern 86 361 Louisiana Monroe 78 78%   
Sat, Jan 31 151 Arkansas St. 85 163 Marshall 82 64%   
Sat, Jan 31 202 Appalachian St. 63 115 Troy 72 80%   
Sat, Jan 31 210 James Madison 72 262 Southern Miss 73 53%   
Sat, Jan 31 232 Old Dominion 71 275 Texas St. 72 53%   
Sat, Jan 31 269 Georgia St. 65 190 South Alabama 72 75%   
Sat, Jan 31 246 Georgia Southern 72 314 Louisiana 70 56%   
Sat, Jan 31 237 Coastal Carolina 80 361 Louisiana Monroe 71 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.1 96.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.1
Arkansas St. 2.9 5.3 48.5 22.7 11.0 6.1 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Marshall 4.1 3.5 27.2 20.3 15.2 10.7 7.6 5.8 3.8 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1
South Alabama 4.3 3.2 20.7 20.3 16.8 12.4 9.4 6.7 4.4 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.0
Appalachian St. 5.6 0.8 8.2 13.2 15.4 14.4 13.4 11.6 8.5 6.5 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.1
James Madison 8.6 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.9 7.2 8.6 10.7 11.6 13.5 12.9 12.4 10.5 5.0 0.0
Old Dominion 9.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.3 6.8 9.4 10.6 13.7 13.8 14.9 14.8 6.8 0.0
Coastal Carolina 5.5 0.6 9.5 13.2 14.7 14.8 13.9 11.9 8.7 6.1 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.1
Georgia Southern 6.5 0.3 5.1 9.1 11.7 12.5 12.7 12.1 11.2 9.5 7.1 4.9 2.8 0.8
Southern Miss 8.5 0.0 1.0 2.5 4.3 5.8 8.4 10.9 12.7 14.6 14.3 13.3 9.9 2.4
Georgia St. 5.8 1.1 8.0 12.4 14.3 14.5 13.1 11.3 8.6 6.9 4.8 3.2 1.6 0.3
Texas St. 9.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.8 5.6 8.4 10.6 13.8 15.2 16.5 15.5 7.2 0.0
Louisiana 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.9 4.8 7.3 11.7 20.3 50.0 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 15 - 3 21 - 8 0.1 0.3 2.0 7.1 17.1 28.6 30.0 14.9
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 19 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 9.4 19.8 29.5 26.1 10.7
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.0 11.1 18.5 22.6 20.4 13.7 5.6 1.2
South Alabama 11 - 7 18 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.9 13.0 21.0 24.2 19.8 10.1 3.5 0.5
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 16 - 13 0.9 4.6 12.7 22.2 25.6 19.7 10.7 3.2 0.5
James Madison 8 - 10 15 - 15 0.1 1.0 4.4 11.1 19.4 25.1 21.5 12.4 4.4 0.6
Old Dominion 8 - 10 10 - 20 0.1 1.2 5.8 14.7 23.5 25.0 18.5 8.4 2.5 0.3
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 16 - 14 0.6 4.4 12.3 22.3 25.6 20.3 10.5 3.4 0.5
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.5 2.7 9.5 18.0 23.7 22.3 15.0 6.5 1.7 0.3
Southern Miss 8 - 10 12 - 17 2.3 10.8 22.2 26.4 21.6 11.5 4.2 0.9 0.1
Georgia St. 10 - 8 12 - 17 1.2 5.7 14.2 21.6 24.1 17.7 10.3 4.1 1.0 0.1
Texas St. 8 - 10 13 - 16 0.7 5.8 16.8 25.7 25.8 16.4 6.8 1.7 0.2
Louisiana 6 - 12 8 - 23 4.2 15.3 26.0 25.6 17.6 8.2 2.5 0.6 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 39.8 37.1 16.9 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 96.0% 87.6 6.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Arkansas St. 5.3% 1.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Marshall 3.5% 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 3.2% 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Appalachian St. 0.8% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
James Madison 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 1.1% 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 0.0% 0.0
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 45.2% 45.2% 0.0% 13   1.5 14.8 22.2 6.3 0.5 0.0 54.8 0.0%
Arkansas St. 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 6.7 8.3 2.2 0.1 81.3 0.0%
Marshall 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.0 2.3 0.1 87.4 0.0%
South Alabama 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.9 0.2 91.8 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.3 95.6 0.0%
James Madison 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 98.1 0.0%
Old Dominion 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 97.1 0.0%
Georgia Southern 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 98.1 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 98.1 0.0%
Texas St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.4
2nd Round 5.0% 0.1 95.0 5.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 45.2% 0.0% 45.2% 3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 18.7% 0.0% 18.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 12.6% 0.0% 12.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.4% 0.0% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.9% 0.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%