Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#159
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#127
Pace71.4#132
Improvement-0.9#243

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#153
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#124
Layup/Dunks-4.3#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#96
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement+1.0#97

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#176
First Shot-2.7#261
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#45
Layups/Dunks+4.1#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#267
Freethrows-2.1#309
Improvement-1.9#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 21.7% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 13.9
.500 or above 94.6% 98.0% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.1% 94.9% 84.2%
Conference Champion 19.9% 33.4% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.5% 21.7% 11.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 36 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 152 @Massachusetts W 78-72 37%     1 - 0 +9.5 -3.0 +11.6
  Sat, Nov 8 167 @Toledo W 85-73 41%     2 - 0 +14.3 +9.1 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 12 192 Elon W 96-89 69%     3 - 0 +2.1 +8.7 -7.2
  Sat, Nov 15 25 @Virginia L 78-104 6%     3 - 1 -8.1 +5.6 -11.8
  Thu, Nov 20 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-70 92%     4 - 1 +12.3 +10.2 -0.4
  Sun, Nov 23 328 Mercyhurst W 69-60 89%     5 - 1 -4.1 -1.9 -1.2
  Wed, Nov 26 142 Lipscomb L 67-90 58%     5 - 2 -24.9 -12.4 -10.1
  Wed, Dec 3 109 @UNC Wilmington L 69-70 26%     5 - 3 +5.8 +6.2 -0.5
  Sat, Dec 6 175 @Ohio L 81-88 43%     5 - 4 -5.0 +4.8 -9.6
  Wed, Dec 10 145 Western Kentucky W 77-61 59%     6 - 4 +13.8 +5.1 +9.1
  Sat, Dec 13 143 Wright St. W 76-74 58%     7 - 4 +0.0 +10.6 -10.4
  Sat, Dec 20 147 @Troy L 72-76 37%    
  Wed, Dec 31 334 Georgia St. W 81-67 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 259 Appalachian St. W 72-64 79%    
  Wed, Jan 7 183 @James Madison L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 334 @Georgia St. W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 243 Coastal Carolina W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 183 James Madison W 78-73 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 358 Louisiana Monroe W 85-68 94%    
  Sat, Jan 24 176 South Alabama W 74-70 64%    
  Wed, Jan 28 239 @Texas St. W 72-71 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 153 @Arkansas St. L 79-82 38%    
  Wed, Feb 4 202 Southern Miss W 79-73 71%    
  Wed, Feb 11 216 @Old Dominion W 77-76 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 231 @Georgia Southern W 81-80 54%    
  Thu, Feb 19 259 @Appalachian St. W 69-67 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 243 @Coastal Carolina W 76-74 56%    
  Tue, Feb 24 216 Old Dominion W 79-73 72%    
  Fri, Feb 27 231 Georgia Southern W 84-77 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.0 5.5 3.4 1.4 0.2 19.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.6 7.0 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 6.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.4 3.7 4.7 0.8 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.5 1.3 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.3 0.2 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.4 6.0 8.9 12.2 14.4 15.5 14.2 11.0 6.9 3.5 1.4 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.5% 1.4    1.3 0.0
16-2 96.5% 3.4    3.0 0.4
15-3 80.7% 5.5    3.7 1.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.3% 6.0    2.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.6% 2.9    0.5 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 11.4 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 45.6% 45.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.4% 48.7% 48.7% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.5% 44.0% 44.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0
15-3 6.9% 34.7% 34.7% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 4.5
14-4 11.0% 32.5% 32.5% 13.8 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.5 7.4
13-5 14.2% 22.3% 22.3% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 0.0 11.1
12-6 15.5% 14.1% 14.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.0 13.3
11-7 14.4% 7.6% 7.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 13.3
10-8 12.2% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.7
9-9 8.9% 2.1% 2.1% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.7
8-10 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
7-11 3.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 1.6% 1.6
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 1.0 4.4 6.8 3.0 0.2 84.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 38.7 58.1 3.2