Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.2 #163
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #152
Pace 72.8 #78
Improvement -2.1 #282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #144 C+ B- D+ D+ D
Defense #200 C+ B- C D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.30 #43 -3.1 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #89 0.71 #256 +1.1 #118
Three Pointers 46% #88 1.08 #94 +3.7 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #130 +1.7 #130
Freethrows 0.26 #293 75% #100 0.20 #254
Second Chance 32.8% #119 1.15 #62 0.38 #67
Turnovers 18.4% #299
Total Offense +0.7 #144

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.15 #176 +2.3 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #70 0.76 #184 -1.5 #297
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.99 #142 +0.4 #160
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #139 +1.3 #139
Freethrows 0.36 #323 72% #168 0.26 #322
Second Chance 32.9% #279 0.87 #18 0.29 #97
Turnovers 16.1% #204
Total Defense -0.9 #200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #320 -1.5% #65
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #83 -1.1% #167
Possession Length 15.7 #44 17.8 #260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #84 0.18 #201
Improvement +0.2 #170 -2.3 #308

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 14.9% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 97.2% 99.0% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 97.1% 86.4%
Conference Champion 3.5% 5.0% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.6% 14.9% 8.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 413 - 420 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 170 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 41% +5  1 - 0 +8 -4 A C F +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 165 @Toledo W 85 - 73 39% -1  2 - 0 +15 +10 A D- D- +5 B B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 192 Elon W 96 - 89 68% +6  3 - 0 +2 +9 B+ A+ D- -8 C+ C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 22 @Virginia L 78 - 104 4% -20  3 - 1 -6 +7 C- A+ F -12 C- D+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 88% +5  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ F C+ +2 A C+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 306 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 85% +5  5 - 1 -2 +1 B+ F+ C -2 B+ C C
 Wed, Nov 26 167 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 63% -17  5 - 2 -27 -14 F C+ F+ -11 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 3 122 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 29% -1  5 - 3 +5 +7 C- A+ F+ -3 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 214 @Ohio L 81 - 88 50% -6  5 - 4 -7 +6 C- B C -13 D C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 166 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 63% +7  6 - 4 +12 +5 D+ B+ A+ +8 B- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 153 Wright St. W 76 - 74 59% -1  7 - 4 -0 +8 C+ A- C -9 C- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 115 @Troy L 63 - 70 26% -6  7 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -7 F D D- +7 A A- B-
 Wed, Dec 31 269 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 80% +2  8 - 5 1 - 1 -5 +4 B- A F+ -9 D D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 202 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 70% +8  9 - 5 2 - 1 +1 +14 A+ F B -12 D D C
 Wed, Jan 7 210 @James Madison W 66 - 64 49% +8  10 - 5 3 - 1 +2 -0 F B+ B +3 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 269 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 61% +3  10 - 6 3 - 2 -11 -2 C- B- F -9 B F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 237 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 75% -5  10 - 7 3 - 3 -9 +9 A- D+ B+ -18 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 210 James Madison W 77 - 72 71% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 -1 +1 D B+ F -2 B- F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 95% +28  12 - 7 5 - 3 +36 +27 A+ A+ D- +6 A+ C- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 275 @Texas St. W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 151 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 86 36%
 Wed, Feb 4 262 Southern Miss W 80 - 72 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 91 Miami (OH) L 81 - 84 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 232 @Old Dominion W 78 - 77 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 246 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 82 55%
 Mon, Feb 16 190 South Alabama W 75 - 70 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 202 @Appalachian St. L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 237 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 75 55%
 Tue, Feb 24 232 Old Dominion W 81 - 74 74%
 Fri, Feb 27 246 Georgia Southern W 86 - 79 76%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 +0 +1 C+ B- D+ -1 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 9.5 11.2 4.1 0.5 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.7 9.0 9.2 1.4 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.1 4.8 9.0 1.4 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.5 7.7 2.5 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.8 4.5 0.2 7.6 6th
7th 0.3 4.8 0.8 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 2.4 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 0.5 2.6 9th
10th 0.4 1.2 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.0 11.1 18.5 22.6 20.4 13.7 5.6 1.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 52.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3
14-4 26.7% 1.5    0.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.5% 1.2    0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.2% 35.7% 35.7% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 5.6% 31.0% 31.0% 13.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 3.9
13-5 13.7% 24.3% 24.3% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.4
12-6 20.4% 17.8% 17.8% 13.9 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 16.8
11-7 22.6% 8.9% 8.9% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 20.6
10-8 18.5% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 17.5
9-9 11.1% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.7
8-10 5.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
7-11 1.6% 1.6
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 13.8 87.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 9.7 61.3 29.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%