Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#164
Pace69.4#189
Improvement-3.4#350

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#182
First Shot+0.5#160
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#254
Layup/Dunks+0.9#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#300
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#229
Freethrows+3.1#32
Improvement-2.0#317

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#123
First Shot+2.1#105
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#242
Layups/Dunks+4.1#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows-0.9#234
Improvement-1.4#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.1% 24.3% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 84.3% 93.2% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 94.7% 90.7%
Conference Champion 29.0% 35.6% 26.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.1% 24.3% 18.4%
Second Round1.4% 2.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 67 - 8
Quad 411 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 124 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 31%     1 - 0 +11.9 +11.5 -0.8
  Fri, Nov 7 148 @Furman W 64-61 39%     2 - 0 +6.7 -6.5 +13.3
  Fri, Nov 14 134 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 35%     2 - 1 -6.3 -4.1 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 16 222 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 55%     2 - 2 -9.6 +7.5 -16.7
  Tue, Nov 18 52 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 12%     3 - 2 +14.4 +17.6 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 20 34 @USC L 106-107 3OT 8%     3 - 3 +15.0 +7.0 +8.3
  Mon, Nov 24 167 Toledo L 68-75 56%     3 - 4 -7.7 -7.2 -0.6
  Wed, Nov 26 363 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 92%     4 - 4 -5.1 -7.5 +1.9
  Mon, Dec 1 315 West Georgia L 89-93 2OT 88%     4 - 5 -16.0 -6.7 -8.6
  Sun, Dec 14 110 @UAB L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Dec 20 159 Marshall W 76-72 63%    
  Wed, Dec 31 239 Texas St. W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 176 South Alabama W 72-67 67%    
  Wed, Jan 7 153 @Arkansas St. L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 325 @Louisiana W 69-62 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 202 Southern Miss W 77-70 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 153 Arkansas St. W 79-76 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 216 @Old Dominion W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 231 @Georgia Southern W 78-76 56%    
  Thu, Jan 29 183 James Madison W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 259 Appalachian St. W 71-62 80%    
  Wed, Feb 4 334 @Georgia St. W 76-68 78%    
  Wed, Feb 11 239 @Texas St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 202 @Southern Miss W 74-73 52%    
  Wed, Feb 18 358 @Louisiana Monroe W 80-68 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 176 @South Alabama L 69-70 46%    
  Tue, Feb 24 325 Louisiana W 72-59 89%    
  Fri, Feb 27 358 Louisiana Monroe W 83-65 94%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.9 8.4 5.6 2.4 0.6 29.0 1st
2nd 0.3 3.5 7.1 5.0 1.4 0.1 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.6 1.2 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.8 0.3 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.3 6.6 10.0 13.2 15.1 15.0 13.5 9.8 5.7 2.4 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.0
16-2 97.8% 5.6    5.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 85.8% 8.4    6.1 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 58.3% 7.9    3.6 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.9% 3.6    0.7 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 18.5 7.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 56.2% 56.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.4% 52.1% 52.1% 12.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1
16-2 5.7% 44.2% 44.2% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.2
15-3 9.8% 38.7% 38.7% 13.2 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.1 0.1 6.0
14-4 13.5% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.4 9.1
13-5 15.0% 23.0% 23.0% 13.8 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 11.5
12-6 15.1% 15.6% 15.6% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 12.8
11-7 13.2% 8.9% 8.9% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 12.0
10-8 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.5
9-9 6.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
8-10 4.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.2
7-11 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 1.1% 1.1
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.5 7.0 2.6 0.2 79.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.9 1.9 5.7 13.2 56.6 22.6