Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.4 #115
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 #97
Pace 66.5 #245
Improvement +3.1 #50

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #101 C+ B- C C B+
Defense #140 C C- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.08 #278 +1.3 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #336 0.82 #98 -3.3 #330
Three Pointers 45% #113 1.07 #110 +2.9 #88
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #140 +0.9 #151
Freethrows 0.31 #171 73% #177 0.22 #162
Second Chance 35.0% #60 1.04 #185 0.36 #85
Turnovers 16.6% #187
Total Offense +2.8 #101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.07 #69 +3.0 #83
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.93 #359 -1.9 #321
Three Pointers 43% #114 1.05 #243 -1.9 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #202 -0.7 #202
Freethrows 0.28 #119 69% #34 0.19 #85
Second Chance 31.2% #208 1.11 #274 0.35 #250
Turnovers 16.7% #163
Total Defense +0.7 #140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #25 -0.3% #136
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #182 1.8% #216
Possession Length 17.8 #221 17.6 #226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.16 #151
Improvement +3.7 #19 -0.6 #220

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.2% 46.6% 39.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 96.0% 97.5% 89.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round45.2% 46.6% 39.2%
Second Round3.5% 3.8% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 36 - 59 - 7
Quad 413 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 142 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 47% +8  1 - 0 +10 +12 A+ C+ C+ -3 B D- D
 Fri, Nov 7 159 @Furman W 64 - 61 51% +7  2 - 0 +6 -5 C- F+ F +12 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 155 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 51% -3  2 - 1 -8 -5 C+ D+ F -3 F+ A- D
 Sun, Nov 16 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 64% -4  2 - 2 -9 +8 B+ F A -17 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 46 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 15% +3  3 - 2 +15 +20 C A+ A+ -5 C+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 48 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 16% -2  3 - 3 +13 +9 C A+ D +5 B A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 165 Toledo L 68 - 75 65% -2  3 - 4 -7 -7 F F+ C+ -1 B- D+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 94% -2  4 - 4 -4 -8 F+ D+ F +4 D+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 329 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 93% +0  4 - 5 -17 -8 C F F -9 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 118 @UAB W 86 - 85 41% +0  5 - 5 +7 +19 A- A- A+ -12 F D- B
 Sat, Dec 20 163 Marshall W 70 - 63 74% +6  6 - 5 1 - 0 +4 -5 D- C- D +9 A+ A- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 275 Texas St. W 100 - 80 88% +8  7 - 5 2 - 0 +11 +27 A+ A+ A+ -16 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 190 South Alabama W 59 - 49 79% +5  8 - 5 3 - 0 +5 -3 D- D B- +10 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 151 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 49% -10  8 - 6 3 - 1 -8 -3 D+ F C -4 D- D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 314 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 82% +16  9 - 6 4 - 1 +14 +26 C+ A+ D -10 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 262 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 86% +12  10 - 6 5 - 1 +18 +15 A C A+ +2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 151 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 71% +9  11 - 6 6 - 1 +23 +29 A+ A+ A- -5 B+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 232 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 67% -1  12 - 6 7 - 1 +5 -1 F B- C- +5 B- A D+
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 69% +4  13 - 6 8 - 1 +3 +16 C A+ D+ -12 D- F D
 Thu, Jan 29 210 James Madison W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 202 Appalachian St. W 72 - 63 80%
 Wed, Feb 4 269 @Georgia St. W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 62 Akron L 80 - 83 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 275 @Texas St. W 74 - 67 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 262 @Southern Miss W 76 - 70 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 69 94%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @South Alabama W 71 - 69 59%
 Tue, Feb 24 314 Louisiana W 75 - 59 93%
 Fri, Feb 27 361 Louisiana Monroe W 88 - 66 98%
Totals 21 - 8 15 - 3 +3 +3 C+ B- C +1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 5.2 16.7 28.6 30.0 14.9 96.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.4 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 2.0 7.1 17.1 28.6 30.0 14.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 14.9    14.9
16-2 100.0% 30.0    30.0
15-3 100.0% 28.6    28.1 0.5
14-4 97.9% 16.7    12.8 3.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 73.2% 5.2    1.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 29.7% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 96.0% 96.0 87.6 6.9 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 14.9% 52.4% 52.4% 12.1 1.3 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.1
16-2 30.0% 49.2% 49.2% 12.6 0.1 6.4 7.2 1.0 0.0 15.2
15-3 28.6% 44.4% 44.4% 12.9 0.0 3.2 7.4 2.1 0.1 15.9
14-4 17.1% 40.7% 40.7% 13.2 0.7 4.1 2.0 0.2 10.1
13-5 7.1% 35.9% 35.9% 13.5 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.6
12-6 2.0% 22.3% 22.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5
11-7 0.3% 16.9% 16.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.2% 45.2% 0.0% 12.8 54.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 11.7 33.2 61.6 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%