South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#176
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#95
Pace63.1#333
Improvement+0.9#117

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#176
First Shot+0.8#149
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#261
Layup/Dunks+5.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#319
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement+1.7#62

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot+1.2#129
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#301
Layups/Dunks+6.2#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.5#365
Freethrows+5.2#6
Improvement-0.8#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 15.0% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 96.1% 98.8% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 86.9% 80.1%
Conference Champion 15.8% 18.5% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.7% 15.0% 9.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 167 @Toledo W 76-74 37%     1 - 0 +4.3 +8.0 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 6 331 Alcorn St. W 76-70 87%     2 - 0 -7.4 -4.9 -2.7
  Thu, Nov 13 322 Central Michigan W 66-64 79%     3 - 0 -7.6 -3.4 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72-62 93%     4 - 0 -8.0 -4.4 -3.1
  Wed, Nov 19 252 @Jacksonville St. W 71-65 54%     5 - 0 +3.9 +3.5 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 110 @UAB L 72-80 23%     5 - 1 -1.2 +9.6 -11.6
  Sun, Nov 30 286 @Texas San Antonio W 82-58 61%     6 - 1 +20.1 +8.3 +11.5
  Tue, Dec 2 132 New Mexico St. W 77-75 39%     7 - 1 +3.7 +9.7 -5.8
  Fri, Dec 5 123 @East Tennessee St. L 65-91 25%     7 - 2 -20.1 -3.5 -17.2
  Sun, Dec 14 146 North Texas W 65-64 55%    
  Wed, Dec 17 358 @Louisiana Monroe W 77-67 83%    
  Sat, Dec 20 239 @Texas St. W 67-66 52%    
  Wed, Dec 31 325 @Louisiana W 67-61 70%    
  Sat, Jan 3 147 @Troy L 67-72 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 231 Georgia Southern W 78-72 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 153 Arkansas St. W 76-74 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 325 Louisiana W 70-58 86%    
  Thu, Jan 22 183 @James Madison L 70-72 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 159 @Marshall L 70-74 36%    
  Thu, Jan 29 243 Coastal Carolina W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 334 Georgia St. W 76-63 87%    
  Wed, Feb 4 259 @Appalachian St. W 65-64 55%    
  Thu, Feb 12 202 @Southern Miss L 70-71 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 153 @Arkansas St. L 73-77 34%    
  Thu, Feb 19 239 Texas St. W 70-64 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 147 Troy W 70-69 54%    
  Wed, Feb 25 358 Louisiana Monroe W 80-64 93%    
  Fri, Feb 27 202 Southern Miss W 73-68 66%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.0 4.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 15.8 1st
2nd 0.3 3.3 6.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 6.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.9 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.3 4.7 0.8 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.1 1.4 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.5 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.1 0.4 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.6 10.6 13.7 14.9 14.9 12.3 8.8 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 97.5% 2.4    2.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 84.8% 4.4    3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 56.9% 5.0    2.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.5% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 8.9 4.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 50.0% 50.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 40.9% 40.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.4% 42.3% 42.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-3 5.1% 37.2% 37.2% 13.4 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 3.2
14-4 8.8% 30.0% 30.0% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.2
13-5 12.3% 22.2% 22.2% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 9.5
12-6 14.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.0 12.8
11-7 14.9% 7.6% 7.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 13.8
10-8 13.7% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.3
9-9 10.6% 1.8% 1.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.5
8-10 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
7-11 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 2.4% 2.4
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.5 2.9 0.2 87.3 0.0%