James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #221
Pace 64.6 #294
Improvement +1.2 #127

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #145 C C C C- C+
Defense #287 C C F D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.13 #205 -2.0 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.64 #329 -2.3 #294
Three Pointers 47% #58 1.07 #105 +4.5 #49
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #173 +0.1 #173
Freethrows 0.28 #252 72% #209 0.20 #242
Second Chance 28.4% #246 1.08 #124 0.31 #200
Turnovers 16.7% #195
Total Offense +0.6 #145

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.10 #108 +0.2 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #281 0.72 #119 +1.6 #76
Three Pointers 43% #128 1.07 #253 -1.9 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #185 -0.2 #185
Freethrows 0.36 #320 72% #179 0.26 #318
Second Chance 31.3% #212 1.00 #116 0.31 #163
Turnovers 11.7% #361
Total Defense -3.7 #287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #153 1.1% #270
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.4% #180 -0.7% #172
Possession Length 18.7 #313 17.4 #191
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #270 0.15 #116
Improvement -0.6 #210 +1.8 #79

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 44.6% 68.7% 39.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.8% 66.1% 32.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.9% 3.8% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 412 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 62 @Akron L 71 - 85 9% -0  0 - 1 -2 -1 C F+ F -0 A+ C F+
 Sun, Nov 9 364 Coppin St. W 84 - 70 96% +13  1 - 1 -9 +0 C- F D+ -9 D+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 261 @Longwood L 72 - 82 47% -8  1 - 2 -12 -2 D D B- -10 B B F
 Sat, Nov 15 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 79 - 88 41% -10  1 - 3 -10 +0 C+ D D -9 F A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 164 Towson W 81 - 75 51% +3  2 - 3 +3 +20 A+ F A+ -17 D+ D+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 181 @Florida International W 80 - 72 33% -1  3 - 3 +10 +11 F A+ A+ -1 B- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 250 Nebraska Omaha W 88 - 77 57% +13  4 - 3 +6 +20 A+ A+ C -13 F D C
 Sat, Nov 29 87 @George Mason L 66 - 82 12% -1  4 - 4 -6 +0 D C+ A+ -8 F+ A C
 Wed, Dec 3 342 NC Central W 67 - 62 86% +4  5 - 4 -10 -7 F D- C+ -3 B- D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 295 Norfolk St. W 68 - 67 77% +4  6 - 4 -10 -3 F C+ A- -7 F C- A-
 Wed, Dec 17 232 @Old Dominion L 68 - 77 43% -6  6 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -2 C F+ D- -9 C A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 246 @Georgia Southern L 92 - 96 OT 45% +3  6 - 6 0 - 2 -6 +6 D- A- C+ -11 C B- F
 Mon, Dec 29 19 @Arkansas L 74 - 103 3% -17  6 - 7 -9 +8 A C- D -17 F+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 151 @Arkansas St. W 78 - 74 26% -2  7 - 7 1 - 2 +8 +4 A- D F +3 B A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 163 Marshall L 64 - 66 51% -8  7 - 8 1 - 3 -5 -3 D- B- D+ -3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 232 Old Dominion W 70 - 69 66% -9  8 - 8 2 - 3 -6 -5 B F+ F -1 A- C+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 202 @Appalachian St. L 65 - 80 37% -11  8 - 9 2 - 4 -15 +6 F+ C A- -24 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 163 @Marshall L 72 - 77 29% +0  8 - 10 2 - 5 -2 +2 C- A- F -4 A- C- C
 Thu, Jan 22 190 South Alabama L 83 - 90 58% -2  8 - 11 2 - 6 -12 +3 B+ C- F -14 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 275 Texas St. W 82 - 57 73% +17  9 - 11 3 - 6 +16 +15 A- B C +3 B+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 29 115 @Troy L 69 - 78 19%
 Sat, Jan 31 262 @Southern Miss L 73 - 74 47%
 Wed, Feb 4 314 Louisiana W 71 - 62 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Toledo W 78 - 77 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 269 Georgia St. W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 202 Appalachian St. W 69 - 66 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 237 @Coastal Carolina L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Georgia St. L 72 - 73 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 246 Georgia Southern W 81 - 76 67%
 Fri, Feb 27 237 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 70 66%
Totals 15 - 15 8 - 10 -3 +1 C C C -4 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 0.3 2.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 1.9 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 1.2 5.4 0.5 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 5.5 3.1 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 8.6 0.6 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 6.4 5.1 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 10.6 1.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 6.9 5.6 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.2 3.4 7.8 1.0 12.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 5.8 2.6 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.5 0.2 5.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.4 11.1 19.4 25.1 21.5 12.4 4.4 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.6% 16.4% 16.4% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 4.4% 11.6% 11.6% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.9
10-8 12.4% 4.5% 4.5% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.8
9-9 21.5% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 21.0
8-10 25.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 24.8
7-11 19.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.4
6-12 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
5-13 4.4% 4.4
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.6 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%