Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #202
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #209
Pace 60.1 #362
Improvement +4.2 #25

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #250 C- C C+ D- C
Defense #162 C+ C D C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.19 #137 -0.9 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #228 0.70 #278 -1.5 #260
Three Pointers 46% #80 0.92 #305 +0.2 #168
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #240 -2.2 #239
Freethrows 0.28 #248 61% #365 0.17 #329
Second Chance 29.9% #208 1.06 #147 0.32 #175
Turnovers 16.0% #146
Total Offense -2.8 #250

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #208 1.05 #62 +2.3 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #277 0.77 #199 +1.3 #96
Three Pointers 45% #81 0.99 #144 -1.3 #239
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #115 +2.3 #108
Freethrows 0.29 #164 70% #83 0.21 #136
Second Chance 31.8% #241 0.99 #97 0.31 #166
Turnovers 13.9% #326
Total Defense +0.2 #162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #170 0.7% #232
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.6% #256 -4.9% #86
Possession Length 18.0 #244 17.6 #223
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #329 0.17 #183
Improvement +1.6 #99 +2.6 #49

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 6.0% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.6
.500 or above 78.1% 89.4% 67.3%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 92.8% 71.5%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.4% 6.0% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 64 - 8
Quad 412 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 304 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 60% -12  0 - 1 -21 -4 F C- B- -18 F C- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 342 NC Central W 76 - 54 87% +16  1 - 1 +7 +3 F A+ A +7 A- B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 35 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 5% -6  1 - 2 -5 -6 D- B- B- -2 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 16 235 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 45% +5  2 - 2 +7 +9 A C- F -3 D B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 172 Charlotte W 65 - 63 55% -2  3 - 2 -2 +4 C+ B- C- -5 A F+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 192 Elon L 53 - 88 59% -17  3 - 3 -40 -18 F F C+ -27 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 154 @Mercer L 67 - 75 28% +3  3 - 4 -5 +2 F+ B A -8 B+ F+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 203 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 39% -8  3 - 5 -12 -12 F D+ C- -0 B F B+
 Thu, Dec 11 253 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 48% +9  4 - 5 +11 +1 C+ B F +11 A B F+
 Sun, Dec 14 96 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 22% +2  5 - 5 +14 +6 B+ F A +7 A A+ D
 Thu, Dec 18 237 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 67% +4  6 - 5 1 - 0 +11 -3 A- F F +15 A+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 269 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 73% -4  6 - 6 1 - 1 -16 -9 D+ F B+ -7 F A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 232 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 44% +13  7 - 6 2 - 1 +7 +13 B- A+ D -6 F B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 163 @Marshall L 81 - 88 30% -8  7 - 7 2 - 2 -4 +9 B- B+ C+ -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 269 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 51% -2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -1 -13 F C- D +12 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 237 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 45% +5  8 - 8 3 - 3 -6 +3 F+ B+ A -11 F C D
 Thu, Jan 15 210 James Madison W 80 - 65 63% +11  9 - 8 4 - 3 +9 +17 A+ A+ B- -6 A C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 232 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 67% -10  9 - 9 4 - 4 -9 +3 D+ B A -12 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 22 314 Louisiana W 72 - 58 82% +1  10 - 9 5 - 4 +2 +9 A+ C- F -5 B+ D- F
 Fri, Jan 23 361 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 93% +8  11 - 9 6 - 4 -3 -22 F F C +19 A+ A C
 Thu, Jan 29 262 @Southern Miss L 66 - 67 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 115 @Troy L 63 - 72 20%
 Wed, Feb 4 190 South Alabama W 65 - 63 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 241 Eastern Michigan W 67 - 62 67%
 Wed, Feb 11 246 @Georgia Southern L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 210 @James Madison L 66 - 69 40%
 Thu, Feb 19 163 Marshall W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 246 Georgia Southern W 75 - 70 68%
 Fri, Feb 27 275 @Texas St. W 66 - 65 53%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3 -3 C- C C+ +0 C+ C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.4 2.3 0.3 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.8 6.8 5.1 0.5 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 5.8 8.5 1.1 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 1.1 10.5 2.8 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 6.1 6.9 0.3 13.4 6th
7th 1.0 9.1 1.5 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 3.3 5.0 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.5 5.2 0.9 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 2.7 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 0.4 2.5 11th
12th 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.9 4.6 12.7 22.2 25.6 19.7 10.7 3.2 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 40.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 23.2% 23.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 3.2% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.7
12-6 10.7% 12.9% 12.9% 14.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 9.3
11-7 19.7% 6.2% 6.2% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 18.5
10-8 25.6% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 24.9
9-9 22.2% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 21.9
8-10 12.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.1 0.1 12.5
7-11 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 0.9% 0.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.5 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.4%