Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #246
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #218
Pace 74.7 #43
Improvement -0.1 #186

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #177 D+ C B- B- B
Defense #298 D+ D B- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.02 #323 -2.0 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #340 0.93 #19 -2.4 #300
Three Pointers 49% #37 0.92 #300 +1.6 #126
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #261 -2.9 #260
Freethrows 0.34 #69 71% #224 0.24 #100
Second Chance 28.8% #233 1.12 #84 0.32 #167
Turnovers 14.9% #84
Total Offense -0.4 #177

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.22 #262 -4.1 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #321 0.87 #333 +1.2 #97
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.04 #222 -0.5 #200
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #291 -3.4 #285
Freethrows 0.35 #317 74% #248 0.26 #326
Second Chance 36.6% #353 1.03 #147 0.38 #309
Turnovers 18.5% #67
Total Defense -4.3 #298

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #34 2.0% #340
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #309 5.0% #271
Possession Length 16.4 #84 16.9 #102
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #255 0.20 #266
Improvement +0.1 #176 -0.3 #208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.1
.500 or above 71.6% 77.8% 49.3%
.500 or above in Conference 69.4% 75.9% 46.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 413 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 253 @East Carolina L 89 - 92 40% -2  0 - 1 -5 +6 C B+ C- -11 D+ F D
 Sat, Nov 8 203 UNC Asheville W 93 - 90 54% -1  1 - 1 -3 +6 C+ F+ A -9 F+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 231 @Florida Gulf Coast W 95 - 94 37% +3  2 - 1 -0 +15 A+ D C+ -16 D+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 113 @Georgia Tech L 66 - 68 15% +1  2 - 2 +4 -6 D- B D- +11 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 106 @Florida St. L 72 - 98 14% -14  2 - 3 -19 -9 F+ F C- -5 D+ C+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 222 Youngstown St. L 61 - 67 46% -4  2 - 4 -10 -11 F F C +1 C- D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 343 Texas San Antonio L 64 - 77 75% +1  2 - 5 -25 -16 F C- C- -8 C+ D- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 300 Houston Christian W 80 - 62 73% +6  3 - 5 +7 +4 C C A+ +4 C+ C+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 221 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 69 57% +4  4 - 5 +1 +8 A- C+ C -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 84 84% +3  5 - 5 -11 +2 D+ D- B+ -14 F D+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 329 @West Georgia W 91 - 85 61% +9  6 - 5 -1 +11 C A- C -12 D- F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 269 Georgia St. W 90 - 67 66% +8  7 - 5 1 - 0 +14 +19 D+ A- A+ -4 F B+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 210 James Madison W 96 - 92 OT 55% -3  8 - 5 2 - 0 -2 +7 D+ D+ A- -10 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 237 @Coastal Carolina W 82 - 81 OT 37% +3  9 - 5 3 - 0 -0 +3 D+ B D+ -3 A- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 232 @Old Dominion W 93 - 86 37% +12  10 - 5 4 - 0 +6 +8 B C C+ -3 A- D F
 Sat, Jan 10 190 @South Alabama L 71 - 87 29% -9  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -2 F+ D- A- -12 F B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 232 Old Dominion W 87 - 84 60% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 -4 +10 A C- C- -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 237 Coastal Carolina L 75 - 79 OT 60% +2  11 - 7 5 - 2 -11 -4 F C+ A+ -7 B- C- A+
 Thu, Jan 22 151 Arkansas St. L 68 - 85 41% -9  11 - 8 5 - 3 -19 -12 F A D -7 F A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 115 Troy L 78 - 83 31% -4  11 - 9 5 - 4 -5 +12 C+ A+ A -17 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 29 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Jan 31 314 @Louisiana W 72 - 70 55%
 Wed, Feb 4 275 Texas St. W 78 - 73 68%
 Wed, Feb 11 202 Appalachian St. W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Marshall L 82 - 83 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 269 @Georgia St. L 77 - 79 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 202 @Appalachian St. L 70 - 75 32%
 Wed, Feb 25 210 @James Madison L 76 - 81 33%
 Fri, Feb 27 163 @Marshall L 79 - 86 24%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 -5 +0 D+ C B- -4 D+ D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.6 1.3 0.2 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.2 3.1 0.3 9.1 3rd
4th 0.1 4.6 6.4 0.6 11.7 4th
5th 1.2 9.2 2.1 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 6.1 6.4 0.2 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 9.6 1.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 5.2 5.8 0.1 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 7.4 1.0 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.1 3.4 3.6 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.6 0.5 4.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.8 12th
13th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.5 2.7 9.5 18.0 23.7 22.3 15.0 6.5 1.7 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 26.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 16.0% 16.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.7% 14.2% 14.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
12-6 6.5% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.1
11-7 15.0% 4.0% 4.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.4
10-8 22.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 21.8
9-9 23.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 23.6
8-10 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 17.9
7-11 9.5% 9.5
6-12 2.7% 2.7
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.5%