Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #270
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #242
Pace 66.9 #234
Improvement +0.5 #158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #306 D C- D C- D+
Defense #211 D B- C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.10 #257 +2.9 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #28 0.75 #184 +3.5 #35
Three Pointers 24% #365 0.81 #361 -11.1 #365
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #316 -4.8 #316
Freethrows 0.27 #282 74% #114 0.20 #244
Second Chance 31.8% #147 0.91 #332 0.29 #239
Turnovers 18.6% #313
Total Offense -5.0 #306

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.22 #272 -4.4 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #302 0.67 #47 +2.3 #25
Three Pointers 40% #212 1.15 #339 -2.2 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #312 -4.3 #312
Freethrows 0.33 #285 72% #147 0.24 #272
Second Chance 29.4% #129 0.96 #69 0.28 #91
Turnovers 17.1% #131
Total Defense -1.2 #211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #278 1.8% #330
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.2% #317 6.5% #303
Possession Length 17.7 #211 17.2 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #107 0.18 #204
Improvement +0.3 #164 +0.3 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 35.8% 51.7% 19.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.1% 58.7% 20.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 91 - 10
Quad 413 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 146 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 17% -13  0 - 1 -31 -23 F F F -8 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 8 180 @Tulane L 71 - 79 23% +6  0 - 2 -7 +2 D B- C+ -9 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 342 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 79% +10  1 - 2 -4 +0 F A- B+ -4 C C- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 307 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 70% +12  2 - 2 -1 -3 D- A+ F +2 C- B+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 259 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 59% +11  3 - 2 +5 -5 D F+ F +12 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 281 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 64% +5  4 - 2 -1 -7 C+ F F +7 B A- B+
 Fri, Nov 28 124 Seattle L 52 - 66 21% -5  4 - 3 -12 -6 C- F D+ -8 F A- D
 Sat, Nov 29 304 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 58% +1  4 - 4 -12 -2 D C- F+ -10 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 232 @Rice L 72 - 77 31% -2  4 - 5 -6 -1 D+ F C -6 B F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 256 Southern W 86 - 83 59% -2  5 - 5 -5 +1 A- F F -7 F+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 158 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 38% -8  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -8 F C D+ -14 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 190 South Alabama W 67 - 65 46% -6  6 - 6 1 - 1 -3 -1 F B+ D+ -1 C B B
 Wed, Dec 31 120 @Troy L 80 - 100 14% -8  6 - 7 1 - 2 -14 +12 C A+ D -27 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 74% +3  7 - 7 2 - 2 -8 +2 D- A D- -10 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 266 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 37% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 -13 -9 F C- C- -3 D B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 158 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 19% -5  7 - 9 2 - 4 +2 +2 D+ A+ F +1 B- A B
 Wed, Jan 14 310 Louisiana W 59 - 54 71% +5  8 - 9 3 - 4 -7 -9 B+ F F +3 C B- C
 Sat, Jan 17 266 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 60% +3  9 - 9 4 - 4 -2 -3 C- D- F +1 C A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 234 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 32% -3  9 - 10 4 - 5 -3 +0 F D+ A+ -4 C B C-
 Sat, Jan 24 194 @James Madison L 57 - 82 25% -17  9 - 11 4 - 6 -24 -11 F F C+ -16 F D C
 Wed, Jan 28 166 Marshall W 72 - 68 40% +4  10 - 11 5 - 6 +1 -2 C B+ D +2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 225 Old Dominion W 72 - 71 51%
 Wed, Feb 4 246 @Georgia Southern L 74 - 78 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 273 Western Michigan W 75 - 72 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 120 Troy L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 361 Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 67 88%
 Thu, Feb 19 190 @South Alabama L 63 - 70 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 310 @Louisiana L 64 - 65 49%
 Fri, Feb 27 197 Appalachian St. L 64 - 65 45%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -6 -5 D C- D -1 D B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.9 0.2 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.8 1.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.8 5.1 0.3 6.3 5th
6th 4.3 2.7 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.5 9.6 0.8 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 4.3 6.8 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.7 12.1 1.9 14.7 9th
10th 0.1 5.3 9.4 0.1 15.0 10th
11th 1.6 9.3 2.6 13.4 11th
12th 0.1 3.9 5.7 0.3 10.0 12th
13th 0.6 2.5 0.8 3.9 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.7 8.1 21.8 29.3 23.6 12.0 4.0 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.5% 14.1% 14.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 4.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-8 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9
9-9 23.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 23.5
8-10 29.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 29.3
7-11 21.8% 21.8
6-12 8.1% 8.1
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%