Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.9 #361
Expected Predictive Rating -24.9 #364
Pace 75.2 #38
Improvement -0.5 #211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #352 D- D- C- C- C-
Defense #354 F+ D- D+ B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 0.96 #355 -4.5 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #152 0.67 #305 -0.4 #194
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.97 #245 -0.8 #211
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #335 -5.7 #334
Freethrows 0.29 #236 71% #223 0.20 #229
Second Chance 21.4% #355 1.04 #196 0.22 #349
Turnovers 17.1% #224
Total Offense -8.4 #352

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #190 1.32 #346 -3.3 #287
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #344 0.85 #311 +1.7 #65
Three Pointers 47% #38 1.13 #322 -5.7 #353
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #359 -7.3 #359
Freethrows 0.24 #25 71% #106 0.17 #24
Second Chance 34.9% #324 1.13 #292 0.40 #333
Turnovers 15.0% #270
Total Defense -7.5 #354

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #226 1.6% #315
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.8% #337 12.6% #358
Possession Length 16.9 #133 16.0 #18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #331 0.23 #336
Improvement -1.9 #283 +1.4 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.9% 99.7% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 42 - 142 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 310 @Northern Illinois L 82 - 102 17% -10  0 - 1 -26 +3 C+ D+ C -27 F+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 64 @Mississippi L 65 - 86 1% -17  0 - 2 -9 -5 C F+ D+ -3 D D A
 Thu, Nov 13 300 @Houston Christian L 61 - 72 16% +3  0 - 3 -16 -16 F F F +0 C- B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 207 Lamar L 66 - 79 17% -9  0 - 4 -19 -10 F+ C- D+ -8 C- B- F+
 Sat, Nov 22 299 Morehead St. L 80 - 83 23% -0  0 - 5 -11 +0 D F C -11 F D D+
 Sun, Nov 23 129 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 97 4% -20  0 - 6 -37 -15 F C- C -23 F F D+
 Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 66 - 52 85% +10  1 - 6 -13 -11 F+ F D -1 A+ C D
 Sun, Dec 7 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 76 - 96 3% -11  1 - 7 -13 +5 F B+ B+ -18 F B D
 Sat, Dec 13 39 @Miami (FL) L 79 - 104 1% -12  1 - 8 -9 +13 B+ C+ A+ -22 F D F+
 Wed, Dec 17 190 South Alabama L 92 - 96 2OT 15% +7  1 - 9 0 - 1 -9 -0 B A- F -8 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 314 Louisiana L 62 - 76 36% -12  1 - 10 0 - 2 -26 -8 F C F -20 F B+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 88 @Kansas St. L 85 - 94 2% -6  1 - 11 +0 +7 A F C- -5 D+ B+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 262 Southern Miss L 73 - 87 24% -11  1 - 12 0 - 3 -22 -9 F D C+ -12 F C A
 Sat, Jan 3 275 Texas St. L 79 - 84 27% -3  1 - 13 0 - 4 -14 -0 A- F D+ -14 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 8 314 @Louisiana L 79 - 85 18% -3  1 - 14 0 - 5 -12 +4 B D- C -16 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 262 @Southern Miss L 60 - 70 11% +0  1 - 15 0 - 6 -12 -11 F F+ F+ -2 B D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Georgia St. L 57 - 77 25% -9  1 - 16 0 - 7 -29 -15 F F C -15 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 163 @Marshall L 60 - 115 5% -28  1 - 17 0 - 8 -52 -15 F D+ C -34 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 202 @Appalachian St. L 43 - 59 7% -8  1 - 18 0 - 9 -16 -28 F F F+ +12 B A+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 246 Georgia Southern L 78 - 86 22%
 Sat, Jan 31 237 Coastal Carolina L 71 - 80 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 232 @Old Dominion L 70 - 85 8%
 Sat, Feb 7 294 Ball St. L 70 - 75 31%
 Wed, Feb 11 151 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 93 3%
 Sat, Feb 14 275 @Texas St. L 68 - 80 12%
 Wed, Feb 18 115 Troy L 69 - 85 6%
 Sat, Feb 21 151 Arkansas St. L 77 - 90 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 190 @South Alabama L 64 - 81 6%
 Fri, Feb 27 115 @Troy L 66 - 88 2%
Totals 2 - 27 1 - 17 -16 -8 D- D- C- -8 F+ D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 39.8 37.1 16.9 4.8 0.7 0.1 99.4 14th
Total 39.8 37.1 16.9 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 5.0% 5.0
2-16 16.9% 16.9
1-17 37.1% 37.1
0-18 39.8% 39.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 28.6%