Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #234
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #191
Pace 68.5 #193
Improvement +1.1 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #281 D D B D+ D-
Defense #168 B- B- F C A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.04 #308 -6.9 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.75 #182 +2.9 #53
Three Pointers 42% #158 0.97 #243 -0.5 #200
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #312 -4.5 #312
Freethrows 0.26 #313 73% #141 0.19 #293
Second Chance 24.1% #337 0.98 #260 0.24 #339
Turnovers 14.3% #54
Total Offense -4.1 #281

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #325 1.04 #52 +5.6 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #7 0.81 #276 -4.8 #362
Three Pointers 37% #290 1.01 #164 +2.3 #101
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #79 +3.0 #79
Freethrows 0.30 #179 72% #143 0.21 #172
Second Chance 26.6% #56 1.07 #217 0.28 #95
Turnovers 11.6% #361
Total Defense -0.1 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #341 -3.5% #9
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #284 -2.5% #136
Possession Length 18.8 #313 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #328 0.13 #56
Improvement +3.1 #41 -2.0 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.1% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 76.4% 82.6% 52.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 85.2% 53.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.7% 3.1% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 411 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 273 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 47% +1  0 - 1 -8 -11 F+ D+ F +3 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 123 Winthrop W 72 - 66 37% +7  1 - 1 +5 -4 B B- F +9 A- A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 185 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 30% -7  1 - 2 -6 -1 F B+ A- -5 B F F
 Fri, Nov 21 359 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 77% +13  2 - 2 +8 +3 D D C +4 A- F+ D-
 Sat, Nov 22 279 North Dakota W 75 - 58 60% +10  3 - 2 +10 -8 D+ F A+ +17 A+ B C-
 Sun, Nov 23 88 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 11% -30  3 - 3 -43 -28 F F B -12 F+ B+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 298 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 74% +6  4 - 3 -4 -9 F F+ C +6 B A D
 Wed, Dec 3 301 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 54% +7  4 - 4 -12 -5 D+ F B- -7 C B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 123 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 19% -1  5 - 4 +9 +17 B C A+ -8 B+ F+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 74 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 9% -19  5 - 5 -10 -1 C- D- A+ -10 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 197 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 32% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -17 -18 F D- C -1 F+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 225 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 36% +1  6 - 6 1 - 1 +1 +0 D F A+ +1 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 139 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 21% +2  7 - 6 +10 -2 D C C +12 A A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 246 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 63% -3  7 - 7 1 - 2 -9 -5 F C+ B+ -4 B- D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 275 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 69% +1  7 - 8 1 - 3 -27 +1 D- A D+ -30 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 225 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 59% -7  7 - 9 1 - 4 -11 -8 F F+ C+ -3 C+ D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 197 Appalachian St. W 67 - 62 54% -5  8 - 9 2 - 4 -0 +8 A D B -7 A- D F
 Wed, Jan 14 166 @Marshall W 85 - 83 26% +5  9 - 9 3 - 4 +5 +14 A+ D- C- -9 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 246 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 75 OT 40% -2  10 - 9 4 - 4 +2 -1 F F+ D+ +3 A C F
 Thu, Jan 22 270 Texas St. W 72 - 70 68% +3  11 - 9 5 - 4 -7 -2 F+ D- A- -5 A- B F
 Sat, Jan 24 266 Southern Miss W 85 - 67 67% +12  12 - 9 6 - 4 +9 +13 A+ C+ F -3 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 29 190 @South Alabama L 48 - 53 31% -0  12 - 10 6 - 5 -4 -14 F F C- +9 B+ A F
 Sat, Jan 31 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 70 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 158 Arkansas St. L 77 - 78 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 170 Massachusetts L 74 - 75 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 310 @Louisiana W 66 - 64 56%
 Wed, Feb 18 194 James Madison W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 166 Marshall L 74 - 75 47%
 Tue, Feb 24 275 @Georgia St. L 71 - 72 48%
 Fri, Feb 27 194 @James Madison L 69 - 74 32%
Totals 16 - 14 10 - 8 -4 -4 D D B +0 B- B- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 3.1 3.8 0.8 7.7 2nd
3rd 1.3 7.8 2.3 0.1 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 6.4 5.9 0.2 12.5 4th
5th 1.1 10.8 1.2 13.1 5th
6th 5.6 6.3 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.4 11.2 1.3 12.9 7th
8th 2.6 6.9 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.3 6.7 1.4 8.3 9th
10th 1.5 4.1 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.3 2.4 1.1 3.8 11th
12th 0.3 1.4 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.3 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.8 5.7 14.9 26.3 26.3 18.0 6.7 1.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 28.2% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1
12-6 6.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.3% 16.1% 16.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 6.7% 10.3% 10.3% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 6.0
11-7 18.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 17.1
10-8 26.3% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 25.5
9-9 26.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.1 0.1 26.1
8-10 14.9% 14.9
7-11 5.7% 5.7
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.8 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.4 23.3 20.0 50.0 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.4%