Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#153
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#120
Pace78.6#17
Improvement+2.1#56

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#154
First Shot-2.3#240
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#36
Layup/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#191
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+1.5#75

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot-2.8#268
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#23
Layups/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#208
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement+0.6#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 21.0% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 13.9
.500 or above 93.6% 97.1% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 95.4% 84.3%
Conference Champion 25.8% 33.7% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.7% 21.0% 13.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 175 @Ohio W 89-85 44%     1 - 0 +6.0 +9.4 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 7 140 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 35%     1 - 1 -20.6 -8.0 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 11 250 @Missouri St. W 86-85 60%     2 - 1 -1.1 +2.0 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 19 38 @St. Mary's L 72-85 9%     2 - 2 +2.2 +9.1 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 21 39 @SMU L 69-100 9%     2 - 3 -16.0 -6.5 -5.5
  Mon, Nov 24 252 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 79%     3 - 3 +2.9 -3.9 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 28 144 North Dakota St. W 85-80 OT 60%     4 - 3 +2.9 +2.2 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 177 Texas Arlington W 83-63 67%     5 - 3 +15.9 +7.6 +7.6
  Sat, Dec 6 313 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90-78 73%     6 - 3 +6.0 +12.3 -6.6
  Sat, Dec 13 210 @Rice L 76-77 52%     6 - 4 -1.1 +4.0 -5.2
  Wed, Dec 17 239 @Texas St. W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Dec 20 202 @Southern Miss W 80-79 51%    
  Sun, Jan 4 183 James Madison W 81-76 68%    
  Wed, Jan 7 147 Troy W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 239 Texas St. W 78-70 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 176 @South Alabama L 74-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 147 @Troy L 76-79 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 231 @Georgia Southern W 84-83 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 334 @Georgia St. W 82-74 77%    
  Wed, Jan 28 216 Old Dominion W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 159 Marshall W 82-79 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 243 @Coastal Carolina W 79-77 57%    
  Wed, Feb 11 358 Louisiana Monroe W 89-71 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 176 South Alabama W 77-73 66%    
  Thu, Feb 19 325 @Louisiana W 75-68 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 358 @Louisiana Monroe W 86-74 85%    
  Tue, Feb 24 202 Southern Miss W 82-76 71%    
  Fri, Feb 27 325 Louisiana W 78-65 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.3 7.6 4.9 1.8 0.4 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.6 7.2 4.8 1.3 0.1 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 6.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.4 3.3 4.3 0.8 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.0 1.3 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.8 7.2 10.9 13.5 15.2 15.0 12.8 8.9 5.0 1.8 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 97.3% 4.9    4.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 85.5% 7.6    5.5 2.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 57.3% 7.3    3.3 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.1% 3.3    0.6 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 16.1 6.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 54.1% 54.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 48.1% 48.1% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-2 5.0% 42.9% 42.9% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.9
15-3 8.9% 36.9% 36.9% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.6
14-4 12.8% 31.4% 31.4% 13.8 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.8
13-5 15.0% 21.3% 21.3% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 11.8
12-6 15.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 13.0
11-7 13.5% 8.2% 8.2% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 12.4
10-8 10.9% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-9 7.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1
8-10 4.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.1% 1.1
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.0 7.8 3.3 0.2 82.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.4 1.7 5.1 52.5 37.3 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%