Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +0.7 145
Results Rating -0.2 160
Consistency 0.16 253
Pace 78.1 11
Improvement +1.0 146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 143 C- B D- B- B-
Defense C 175 C- B- D+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 198 C 59% 159 -0.1 186
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 280 D 34% 307 -2.6 302
Three Pointers 46% 65 D+ 32% 271 +1.4 135
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 99 C- -1.8 246
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 217
Second Chance A- 37.5% 23 C 1.02 189 B 0.38 47
Opponents' Steals F+ 11.9% 352
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 272
Turnovers D- 19.8% 337
Freethrows B- 0.33 97 C+ 73% 172 B- 0.24 110
Total Offense C +0.8 143

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 180 C 10.7% 164
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 197 F 9.5% 356
Three Pointers B+ 92% 16 B+ 0.2% 24
Total B- 61% 69 C 5.6% 194


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 243 C- 61% 247 +0.0 176
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 158 C 38% 168 +0.1 198
Three Pointers 42% 135 C 34% 200 +0.7 226
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 130 C- +0.9 219
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 204
Second Chance B- 27.4% 75 C 1.02 166 B- 0.28 95
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 139
Other Turnovers F 5.0% 363
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 283
Freethrows C- 0.33 257 C+ 71% 124 C- 0.23 238
Total Defense C -0.1 175

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 333 D 7.9% 306
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 239 C- 3.7% 248
Three Pointers C+ 83% 142 C- 0.6% 231
Total D+ 60% 282 D 3.9% 309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 15 17.4 203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 130 0.18 216
Consistency 0.11 52 0.14 278
Improvement -0.4 210 +1.4 117

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 147 146 145
Results Rating Rank 160 159 159
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 310 - 110 - 5
Quad 48 - 718 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 227 @Ohio W 89 - 85 56% -2  24% 1 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 C- A+ F C- -3 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 106 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 26% -16  0% 1 - 1 F+ -18 F+ -10 F D+ D D- -7 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 195 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 48% -7  15% 2 - 1 C+ +2 C -0 D B+ F+ B- +2 C- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 30 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 7% -7  4% 2 - 2 C+ +5 B +7 C A- C+ C- -3 D+ D B+
 Fri, Nov 21 42 @SMU L 69 - 100 8% -15  6% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -10 D- A+ F C -1 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 203 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 71% +7  86% 3 - 3 B- +6 D -6 D+ D F A +11 A A B+
 Fri, Nov 28 125 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 55% -1  43% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C +0 D B- A B +4 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 169 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 65% +10  78% 5 - 3 A- +17 B+ +8 B+ C- D- A- +8 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 304 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 73% +8  97% 6 - 3 B- +6 A- +10 B- A- C+ D+ -4 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 224 @Rice L 76 - 77 55% +7  97% 6 - 4 C -2 C +0 B- D C C- -2 C- B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 233 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 58% +8  91% 7 - 4 1 - 0 A- +18 A- +11 A A+ F B+ +6 B+ C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 213 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 53% +3  60% 8 - 4 2 - 0 B- +7 A+ +17 D- A+ A F -10 F C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 209 James Madison L 74 - 78 73% +2  65% 8 - 5 2 - 1 D -10 D- -6 D D B- D+ -3 F A A-
 Wed, Jan 7 142 Troy W 86 - 74 61% +10  86% 9 - 5 3 - 1 B +10 C+ +4 B A- F B+ +6 C A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 233 Texas St. W 83 - 82 78% +5  94% 10 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 F C F+ D+ -4 C- F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 206 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 50% -0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -3 C- -1 C- B F C- -2 C B F
 Sat, Jan 17 142 @Troy L 74 - 99 38% -9  16% 10 - 7 4 - 3 F -21 B- +4 D- A- B+ F -26 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 230 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 57% +9  88% 11 - 7 5 - 3 A- +16 C +1 B+ F F A+ +14 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 305 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 73% +3  64% 11 - 8 5 - 4 D+ -7 B+ +8 B+ C F F -15 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 244 Old Dominion L 71 - 75 79% -5  1% 11 - 9 5 - 5 D- -12 F -11 D D F C -1 C+ C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 202 Marshall L 61 - 70 71% -4  11% 11 - 10 5 - 6 D- -14 F -14 F D D C -1 C+ C- B-
 Wed, Feb 4 240 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 59% +0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 6 C+ +2 D+ -4 C D+ F B+ +6 C+ D A+
 Sat, Feb 7 168 Bowling Green W 91 - 54 65% +21  98% 13 - 10 A+ +34 B+ +9 A+ A C+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 353 Louisiana Monroe W 103 - 70 95% +15  99% 14 - 10 7 - 6 A- +15 A +12 B A C+ B- +2 C+ C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 206 South Alabama L 88 - 92 OT 72% +5  74% 14 - 11 7 - 7 D -9 C+ +3 C A- F F -12 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 19 299 @Louisiana W 79 - 62 72% +1  53% 15 - 11 8 - 7 B+ +12 B- +4 B+ B F A- +8 A- A F
 Sat, Feb 21 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 94 87% +6  89% 16 - 11 9 - 7 C- -4 B+ +9 C+ C C F -13 F F B
 Tue, Feb 24 213 Southern Miss W 89 - 84 74% +3  74% 17 - 11 10 - 7 C -1 C+ +2 F A+ F D+ -4 F+ D D
 Fri, Feb 27 299 Louisiana W 81 - 58 87% +14  98% 18 - 11 11 - 7 B+ +12 D -5 D+ D B A+ +14 A+ B+ F
 Thu, Mar 5 230 Georgia Southern L 77 - 80 68% -3  23% 18 - 12 D+ -7 C- -2 D B- C D -5 F A+ C-
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 +1 C +1 F C- B- C +0 D+ C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D D+ C- 38% 29% 46% B- C- A- C B D- B- C+ B- C C- C C C- 37% 21% 42% C+ C- B- C B- D+ C- C+ C-
1.10 59% 34% 32% -2 +1 0.99 37% 1.0 .38 20% .33 73% .24 1.09 61% 38% 34% +1 0 1.04 27% 1.0 .28 15% .33 71% .24
Nov
3		 Ohio B F A+ C D+ 42% 4% 54% A- C- A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D+ F C F 41% 17% 42% D- F A A+ A+ D C- B- C
1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44 1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23
Nov
7		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F F+ F F 41% 13% 46% B F D+ C+ D+ D A+ B+ A+ D- A- F A- D 27% 29% 44% B D+ F F F A+ F A+ C-
0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43 1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17
Nov
11		 Missouri St. C B+ A F D+ 19% 43% 38% F D B B B+ F+ A+ A- A+ B- F C- B D+ 31% 31% 38% B+ C- A+ F B+ D+ F F+ F
1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36 1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40
Nov
19		 St. Mary's B D D+ D- D+ 47% 10% 43% A C A+ C- A- C+ C- A+ C+ C- C A+ F D+ 51% 19% 30% D- D+ D+ D+ D B+ F A- F
1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19 1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45
Nov
21		 SMU F+ A- A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D- A+ C+ A+ F A- D+ B+ C F F D+ F 41% 27% 32% C+ F A A+ A+ F A- A+ A
0.86 67% 50% 17% -8 -1 0.86 54% 1.0 .54 40% .33 69% .23 1.25 81% 56% 38% +16 -1 1.33 31% 0.2 .05 10% .22 63% .14
Nov
24		 Jacksonville St. D D F C+ D 39% 8% 53% B D+ D- C- D F A+ B- A+ A B+ F A+ A 38% 16% 46% B A D+ A+ A B+ F B- F
1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40 0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33
Nov
28		 North Dakota St. C D F C+ D- 37% 10% 53% B+ D C A B- A A- A+ A+ B A+ C F C+ 34% 23% 43% C C+ A A+ A+ C- F A F
1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30 1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30
Dec
2		 Texas Arlington B+ A+ C+ F A- 40% 28% 32% C B+ A F C- D- A+ C+ A+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% B A+ C F D- F+ F A+ C-
1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36 0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26
Dec
6		 Arkansas Little Rock A- A+ F C- B- 36% 7% 57% B- B- B- A A- C+ F A+ F+ D+ F C+ F F 27% 38% 35% B+ F A+ F A+ F D A C-
1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15 1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16
Dec
13		 Rice C A+ C+ F B- 37% 33% 31% C- B- C+ F D C C F D C- B- A+ F C 35% 25% 40% D C- A- C+ B+ F F B D-
1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21 1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24
Dec
17		 Texas St. A- B+ F A+ A 46% 13% 41% B- A A+ A+ A+ F B B- B B+ A- C+ A- A 53% 28% 19% D- B+ A F C+ F+ C- F D
1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28 0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24
Dec
20		 Southern Miss A+ D F C F+ 43% 16% 41% B- D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F F 28% 40% 32% A+ F B F C- D- F F F
1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43 1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41
Jan
3		 James Madison D- A F F D 35% 17% 48% C D A F D B- A F C D+ D- C- F F 45% 23% 32% B- F B+ A A A- F A+ F
1.04 68% 11% 27% -6 0 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 11% .43 59% .25 1.10 67% 36% 47% +9 0 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 21% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Troy C+ F A+ A B+ 23% 19% 58% D B B+ B+ A- F A+ B+ A+ B+ F A+ D D+ 30% 26% 44% A+ C A+ A+ A+ D B- A+ A-
1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37 0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17
Jan
10		 Texas St. D+ B F F F 43% 13% 44% B- F A+ F C F+ A+ A- A+ D+ F A- A+ D+ 44% 35% 20% C+ C- A F F B- D+ F D-
1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41 1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26
Jan
15		 South Alabama C- B D+ D- D+ 25% 5% 69% B- C- B+ C- B F C B+ B- C- D+ F A+ B- 51% 9% 40% F C A+ F B F F D- F
1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19 1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27
Jan
17		 Troy B- F A- B+ F 45% 12% 43% B+ D- C+ A+ A- B+ A+ F C+ F F F D+ F 43% 2% 55% F+ F F+ F F F D- F F
1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21 1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32
Jan
22		 Georgia Southern C D A+ A+ B+ 47% 8% 45% B+ B+ D F F F B- A A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 43% 6% 51% F+ A+ F+ F F C F A+ D+
1.14 54% 75% 43% +7 +2 1.22 31% 0.7 .22 23% .40 83% .33 0.91 52% 0% 11% -22 +2 0.62 33% 1.3 .42 16% .42 65% .27
Jan
24		 Georgia St. B+ C A+ C+ B 51% 6% 43% A B+ A- F+ C F B+ A+ A+ F A+ F F F 20% 26% 54% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.20 58% 100% 35% +5 +3 1.17 41% 0.8 .34 21% .36 89% .32 1.22 40% 62% 44% +11 -2 1.20 13% 0.5 .07 10% .37 91% .33
Jan
28		 Old Dominion F A- F D+ D 32% 19% 49% C- D D+ D D F D- F F C C D+ B- C 32% 31% 37% B- C+ A+ F C+ F+ A- D- B+
0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19 1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Marshall F B+ F F F 32% 11% 57% B+ F B+ F D D A+ F A- C C B F C 27% 38% 35% A+ C+ D- B+ C- B- D F F+
0.96 67% 20% 19% -12 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31 1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23
Feb
4		 Coastal Carolina D+ F F A+ C 33% 27% 41% C+ C A F D+ F A C A- B+ B F A- B- 28% 16% 56% F C+ D D+ D A+ D- A C-
1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27 0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20
Feb
7		 Bowling Green B+ A+ F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% B+ A+ A+ C+ A C+ C+ F D- A+ C- A A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C D-
1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19 0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
11		 Louisiana Monroe A B A+ B+ B- 47% 5% 48% A- B A+ C- A C+ C F F+ B- A+ B- D C 29% 23% 48% B C+ C+ C+ C+ C- F A+ D
1.39 67% 67% 39% +9 +3 1.26 51% 1.1 .56 15% .25 50% .13 0.95 40% 33% 36% -5 -1 0.90 23% 1.0 .23 16% .42 62% .26
Feb
14		 South Alabama C+ F D+ B C+ 14% 12% 75% D C A+ D- A- F A+ F A+ F A A+ F C 21% 29% 50% A+ B- D- F F F D- F F
1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34 1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28
Feb
19		 Louisiana B- A A+ F A- 50% 17% 33% C+ B+ A+ D- B F A+ C- A+ A- A+ F+ A- A- 27% 37% 36% B- A- C A+ A F A- D B+
1.15 71% 86% 21% +8 +1 1.21 45% 0.9 .41 26% .55 71% .39 0.90 31% 45% 29% -7 -3 0.81 27% 0.4 .12 4% .17 73% .12
Feb
21		 Louisiana Monroe B+ F+ A- A+ C+ 32% 8% 60% C+ C+ C C+ C C A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F+ F 40% 19% 40% D+ F F F F B F C F
1.31 53% 50% 44% +8 +1 1.21 35% 1.2 .41 15% .47 84% .40 1.21 76% 20% 38% +6 0 1.15 39% 1.2 .48 19% .46 72% .33
Feb
24		 Southern Miss C+ B- F F F 43% 22% 35% C F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+ D+ C+ F+ D- D- 55% 20% 25% F F+ D- C- D D B A+ A+
1.13 62% 9% 18% -13 0 0.76 45% 1.4 .64 23% .76 78% .59 1.06 57% 45% 36% +1 +1 1.07 36% 1.1 .39 16% .32 52% .17
Feb
27		 Louisiana D B+ F D+ D 38% 7% 55% B- D+ F A+ D B C F F A+ A+ B+ A- A+ 35% 28% 37% F+ A+ A C B+ F F A+ D+
1.07 67% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.04 21% 1.3 .28 16% .38 50% .19 0.77 35% 31% 29% -13 -1 0.74 18% 0.9 .16 12% .35 52% .18
Mar
5		 Georgia Southern C- B F D- D 34% 14% 52% C- D A D- B- C C+ F F D F C F F 22% 10% 68% B F A A+ A+ C- C- F F
1.12 65% 29% 31% -2 +1 1.00 47% 0.9 .42 19% .38 52% .20 1.16 73% 40% 41% +11 0 1.24 20% 0.3 .07 15% .34 90% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%