Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.6 #151
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #136
Pace 78.4 #13
Improvement -1.0 #237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #124 C- B D B B-
Defense #211 C- B- D C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.16 #169 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #287 0.73 #220 -2.1 #285
Three Pointers 45% #96 0.93 #285 +0.2 #169
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #225 -1.5 #224
Freethrows 0.33 #102 77% #37 0.25 #56
Second Chance 36.5% #33 1.09 #116 0.40 #46
Turnovers 18.8% #321
Total Offense +1.6 #124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #214 1.26 #308 -1.6 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #138 0.78 #227 -0.8 #237
Three Pointers 41% #197 1.02 #192 +0.1 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #254 -2.2 #254
Freethrows 0.33 #280 72% #158 0.24 #273
Second Chance 25.7% #32 1.10 #267 0.28 #93
Turnovers 13.7% #330
Total Defense -1.1 #211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #95 -0.4% #130
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #249 4.7% #268
Possession Length 15.0 #17 17.3 #166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #145 0.19 #233
Improvement +0.3 #162 -1.4 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 20.6% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.7% 97.0%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.5% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.7% 20.6% 12.6%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 37 - 48 - 7
Quad 412 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 214 @Ohio W 89 - 85 53% -2  1 - 0 +4 +10 C A+ F -7 F+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 27% -16  1 - 1 -18 -6 F C- F+ -11 D+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 177 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 45% -7  2 - 1 +3 +4 D B+ D- -1 C- B+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 42 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 10% -7  2 - 2 +2 +8 C A+ C+ -6 D+ D B+
 Fri, Nov 21 36 @SMU L 69 - 100 7% -15  2 - 3 -14 -7 D A+ F -3 F A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 196 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 71% +7  3 - 3 +6 -4 C- D F +9 A+ B B
 Fri, Nov 28 134 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 58% -1  4 - 3 +4 +2 D B- A +1 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 158 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 63% +10  5 - 3 +17 +9 B+ C- D+ +7 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 279 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 66% +8  6 - 3 +8 +13 C B+ B- -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 238 @Rice L 76 - 77 57% +7  6 - 4 -2 +2 C+ F+ C -5 C- B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 275 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 65% +8  7 - 4 1 - 0 +16 +13 A- A+ F +2 C+ C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 262 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 61% +3  8 - 4 2 - 0 +5 +18 F+ A+ A+ -14 F D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 210 James Madison L 74 - 78 74% +2  8 - 5 2 - 1 -10 -5 D- D C -5 F A- A-
 Wed, Jan 7 115 Troy W 86 - 74 51% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +12 +6 B- B+ F +5 B- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 275 Texas St. W 83 - 82 83% +5  10 - 5 4 - 1 -8 -1 F C F -8 D F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 190 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 48% -0  10 - 6 4 - 2 -3 +3 C- C+ F -6 C- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 115 @Troy L 74 - 99 29% -9  10 - 7 4 - 3 -19 +7 F+ A A- -27 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 246 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 59% +9  11 - 7 5 - 3 +15 +4 B+ F F +10 A+ F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 269 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 63% +3  11 - 8 5 - 4 -4 +13 A- C F+ -17 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 232 Old Dominion W 85 - 77 76%
 Sat, Jan 31 163 Marshall W 86 - 82 64%
 Wed, Feb 4 237 @Coastal Carolina W 80 - 78 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 147 Bowling Green W 82 - 79 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 361 Louisiana Monroe W 93 - 74 97%
 Sat, Feb 14 190 South Alabama W 79 - 73 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 314 @Louisiana W 76 - 69 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 90 - 77 89%
 Tue, Feb 24 262 Southern Miss W 84 - 75 80%
 Fri, Feb 27 314 Louisiana W 79 - 66 88%
Totals 19 - 10 12 - 6 +1 +2 C- B D -1 C- B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.7 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 16.0 21.9 8.0 48.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 8.6 11.6 2.0 0.0 22.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.8 6.7 1.5 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.3 3.9 1.8 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 1.1 1.9 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 9.4 19.8 29.5 26.1 10.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 25.1% 2.7    0.9 1.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.6% 2.2    0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 1.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 10.7% 34.9% 34.9% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 7.0
13-5 26.1% 26.8% 26.8% 13.6 0.3 3.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 19.1
12-6 29.5% 17.3% 17.3% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.8 0.8 0.0 24.4
11-7 19.8% 11.0% 11.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 17.6
10-8 9.4% 5.9% 5.9% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.9
9-9 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
8-10 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 13.6 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 12.7 1.3 37.0 54.6 6.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%