Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#325
Expected Predictive Rating-15.5#349
Pace62.2#349
Improvement-0.9#242

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#353
First Shot-5.7#329
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#317
Layup/Dunks-4.2#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#189
Freethrows-3.3#334
Improvement-2.0#320

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#233
First Shot-2.1#246
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#168
Layups/Dunks-2.6#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#16
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows-3.9#353
Improvement+1.1#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 26.7% 9.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 7.7% 20.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 46 - 107 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 308 @Ball St. L 64-75 33%     0 - 1 -16.3 -4.7 -12.6
  Fri, Nov 7 256 SE Louisiana W 58-52 44%     1 - 1 -2.3 -4.4 +3.3
  Tue, Nov 11 207 Tulane L 62-66 36%     1 - 2 -10.0 -10.2 -0.2
  Fri, Nov 14 71 @McNeese St. L 62-88 4%     1 - 3 -15.1 -1.2 -15.2
  Tue, Nov 18 93 @Stanford L 66-93 5%     1 - 4 -18.4 -4.1 -13.8
  Fri, Nov 21 73 @Santa Clara L 43-80 4%     1 - 5 -26.3 -23.5 -4.8
  Mon, Nov 24 201 @UC Davis L 56-77 17%     1 - 6 -20.6 -10.9 -11.2
  Fri, Nov 28 316 Jackson St. L 45-51 59%     1 - 7 -18.1 -25.1 +6.2
  Wed, Dec 3 224 @Lamar L 55-65 20%     1 - 8 -10.7 -6.4 -5.7
  Sat, Dec 6 109 UNC Wilmington L 63-70 16%     1 - 9 -6.2 -5.0 -1.8
  Sat, Dec 13 179 @Louisiana Tech L 44-65 14%     1 - 10 -19.3 -17.6 -5.2
  Thu, Dec 18 202 @Southern Miss L 62-72 17%    
  Sat, Dec 20 358 @Louisiana Monroe W 69-67 56%    
  Sun, Dec 28 234 Norfolk St. L 61-64 40%    
  Wed, Dec 31 176 South Alabama L 61-67 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 202 Southern Miss L 65-69 36%    
  Thu, Jan 8 358 Louisiana Monroe W 72-64 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 147 Troy L 62-69 25%    
  Wed, Jan 14 239 @Texas St. L 59-67 22%    
  Sat, Jan 17 176 @South Alabama L 58-70 14%    
  Thu, Jan 22 259 @Appalachian St. L 58-65 25%    
  Sat, Jan 24 216 @Old Dominion L 63-72 19%    
  Thu, Jan 29 334 Georgia St. W 68-64 64%    
  Sat, Jan 31 231 Georgia Southern L 70-73 40%    
  Wed, Feb 4 183 @James Madison L 62-73 16%    
  Thu, Feb 12 243 Coastal Carolina L 65-67 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 153 Arkansas St. L 68-75 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 239 Texas St. L 62-64 42%    
  Tue, Feb 24 147 @Troy L 59-72 11%    
  Fri, Feb 27 153 @Arkansas St. L 65-78 12%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.7 0.5 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.2 1.6 0.1 10.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.0 7.3 3.2 0.3 15.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 5.8 8.4 4.6 0.6 0.0 20.8 12th
13th 0.2 1.9 5.4 6.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 18.1 13th
14th 0.3 1.8 3.4 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 14th
Total 0.3 2.0 5.3 9.9 14.5 16.6 16.4 13.1 9.6 6.1 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 56.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
9-9 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.1
8-10 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
7-11 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-12 16.4% 16.4
5-13 16.6% 16.6
4-14 14.5% 14.5
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 5.3% 5.3
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%