Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #262
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 #231
Pace 70.6 #135
Improvement -5.5 #355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #290 D C D+ B D-
Defense #207 D+ C+ C+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 1.19 #136 +0.3 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #14 0.76 #175 +4.4 #18
Three Pointers 30% #353 0.73 #365 -10.1 #361
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #327 -5.4 #328
Freethrows 0.34 #65 75% #94 0.26 #54
Second Chance 29.2% #223 1.06 #159 0.31 #196
Turnovers 17.8% #272
Total Offense -4.4 #290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.13 #144 +0.8 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #222 0.76 #174 +0.6 #148
Three Pointers 43% #115 1.19 #354 -4.8 #339
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #283 -3.4 #284
Freethrows 0.33 #287 71% #92 0.24 #267
Second Chance 29.2% #122 1.04 #166 0.30 #134
Turnovers 17.2% #130
Total Defense -1.0 #207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #337 0.4% #202
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #306 6.2% #297
Possession Length 17.8 #220 16.7 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #175 0.21 #298
Improvement -6.4 #365 +0.9 #136

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 13.7% 21.1% 5.8%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 53.5% 22.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 411 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 184 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 27% +3  0 - 1 -5 +9 B+ B- F -14 D D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 9 78 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 8% -2  0 - 2 +7 +6 C B B+ +1 D A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 285 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 46% -6  0 - 3 -9 -3 F A+ A -7 F B B+
 Sat, Nov 22 348 North Florida W 92 - 83 75% -0  1 - 3 -3 +5 C+ B- D+ -9 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 229 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 45% +17  2 - 3 +6 +16 B- B- B -7 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 3 255 @Radford W 82 - 75 38% +6  3 - 3 +5 +0 F D D+ +4 A- C+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 39 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  3 - 4 -8 -4 D A F -3 C C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 8 285 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 68% -1  4 - 4 -2 -7 D+ D F +5 C- A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 64 Mississippi L 67 - 71 10% -3  4 - 5 +5 +2 C+ C D +3 C+ B+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 314 Louisiana W 62 - 54 74% +2  5 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -12 F F+ A+ +8 A- A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 151 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 39% -3  5 - 6 1 - 1 -9 +9 C+ B- D+ -18 B- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 41 @LSU L 62 - 90 4% -14  5 - 7 -13 -5 F D- C+ -8 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 76% +11  6 - 7 2 - 1 +1 +0 B D F -1 C C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 314 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 53% +2  7 - 7 3 - 1 +1 +3 C+ D F -2 D+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 275 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 65% -0  8 - 7 4 - 1 +1 -3 D C- D+ +2 B- C C
 Sat, Jan 10 361 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 89% -0  9 - 7 5 - 1 -9 -10 F C- B +1 C B- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 115 @Troy L 65 - 91 14% -12  9 - 8 5 - 2 -20 -6 F B+ F -14 F B F
 Sat, Jan 17 275 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 43% -3  9 - 9 5 - 3 -10 -7 F F D -3 F+ B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 269 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 41% -2  9 - 10 5 - 4 -10 -11 F F+ C+ +1 A F B
 Sat, Jan 24 237 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 35% -12  9 - 11 5 - 5 -19 -2 C- D- B- -17 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 202 Appalachian St. W 67 - 66 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 210 James Madison W 74 - 73 53%
 Wed, Feb 4 163 @Marshall L 72 - 80 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 142 Kent St. L 77 - 81 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 190 South Alabama L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 115 Troy L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 232 Old Dominion W 75 - 73 57%
 Tue, Feb 24 151 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 84 20%
 Fri, Feb 27 190 @South Alabama L 66 - 72 28%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -5 -4 D C D+ -1 D+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 1.7 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.9 4.5 0.3 5.8 5th
6th 0.1 5.2 3.1 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 1.4 8.7 0.8 10.9 7th
8th 0.2 6.9 5.5 0.1 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 2.3 11.1 1.2 14.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 7.8 6.1 0.1 14.3 10th
11th 0.1 3.2 9.0 0.9 13.3 11th
12th 1.2 5.9 2.8 0.0 9.9 12th
13th 1.0 1.3 0.1 2.4 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.3 10.8 22.2 26.4 21.6 11.5 4.2 0.9 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 4.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 21.7% 21.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.9% 6.3% 6.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 4.2% 5.3% 5.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.9
10-8 11.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.2
9-9 21.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 21.4
8-10 26.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 26.4
7-11 22.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.2
6-12 10.8% 10.8
5-13 2.3% 2.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%