American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
75 Memphis 26.0%   11   4 - 5 0 - 0 19 - 12 13 - 5 +7.7      +3.0 103 +4.7 56 72.7 94 +5.6 96 0.0 1
83 Tulsa 23.3%   8 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +7.1      +6.7 52 +0.4 153 67.6 231 +12.8 43 0.0 1
86 South Florida 18.5%   6 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +6.5      +3.7 85 +2.8 88 77.6 24 +6.2 91 0.0 1
100 Wichita St. 12.1%   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +4.9      +2.0 121 +2.9 83 65.1 298 +0.7 159 0.0 1
117 Florida Atlantic 7.7%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +3.3      +3.8 84 -0.5 183 70.9 147 +4.7 104 0.0 1
119 UAB 7.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +3.2      +2.5 112 +0.6 143 72.1 115 +2.0 139 0.0 1
145 North Texas 3.7%   7 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +0.9      -3.0 249 +3.9 68 62.1 348 +3.5 119 0.0 1
158 Temple 2.9%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 +0.2      +4.2 78 -4.0 308 67.3 245 -2.4 207 0.0 1
194 Charlotte 0.9%   3 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 -2.4      -0.3 176 -2.0 243 61.7 356 -5.3 248 0.0 1
206 Tulane 0.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 12 -3.0      +0.8 143 -3.8 299 67.0 249 +0.1 170 0.0 1
208 Rice 0.7%   4 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -3.2      -1.3 203 -1.8 233 64.5 306 -4.4 238 0.0 1
280 East Carolina 0.1%   3 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 13 -6.5      -5.3 313 -1.2 210 71.2 139 -9.4 304 0.0 1
286 Texas San Antonio 0.1%   2 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -6.9      -5.5 318 -1.4 220 73.1 77 -8.2 290 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 11 231 Appalachian St. 67 280 East Carolina 54   
Sat, Dec 13 113 DePaul 61 100 Wichita St. 58   
Sat, Dec 13 10 Louisville 99 75 Memphis 73   
Sat, Dec 13 133 New Mexico St. 70 83 Tulsa 83   
Sat, Dec 13 153 Arkansas St. 76 208 Rice 77   
Sat, Dec 13 206 Tulane 67 89 UC San Diego 93   
Sat, Dec 13 62 Colorado 88 286 Texas San Antonio 64   
Sat, Dec 13 117 Florida Atlantic 105 328 Albany 79   
Sun, Dec 14 143 Troy 86 119 UAB 85   
Sun, Dec 14 145 North Texas 58 179 South Alabama 57   
Sun, Dec 14 194 Charlotte 67 170 College of Charleston 74   
Sun, Dec 14 216 Buffalo 70 280 East Carolina 73   
Sun, Dec 14 363 St. Francis (PA) 67 158 Temple 95   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 17 75 Memphis 76 11 Vanderbilt 84 76%   
Wed, Dec 17 15 Alabama 97 86 South Florida 83 90%   
Wed, Dec 17 145 North Texas 65 74 Santa Clara 72 75%   
Wed, Dec 17 178 Louisiana Tech 67 206 Tulane 69 55%   
Wed, Dec 17 280 East Carolina 66 263 Presbyterian 65 58%   
Wed, Dec 17 100 Wichita St. 77 246 Wofford 65 88%   
Wed, Dec 17 321 Cleveland St. 72 119 UAB 88 92%   
Wed, Dec 17 37 USC 88 286 Texas San Antonio 66 97%   
Thu, Dec 18 127 Davidson 77 158 Temple 72 69%   
Thu, Dec 18 194 Charlotte 73 319 Lafayette 63 83%   
Fri, Dec 19 39 St. Mary's 79 117 Florida Atlantic 67 86%   
Fri, Dec 19 83 Tulsa 81 147 Western Kentucky 78 63%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3.0 32.6 21.6 14.5 10.4 7.4 5.1 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 3.0 32.1 21.2 14.4 10.2 7.4 5.3 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
South Florida 3.8 21.0 17.2 15.5 12.6 10.5 7.9 6.0 4.0 2.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
Wichita St. 4.4 14.8 14.7 14.7 13.1 11.7 9.5 7.5 5.4 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.2
Florida Atlantic 5.2 9.1 10.8 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.0 10.1 8.0 6.2 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.5
UAB 5.3 8.7 10.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 11.0 10.2 8.5 6.1 4.3 2.5 1.5 0.6
North Texas 6.6 3.7 5.7 7.7 9.4 11.0 11.5 11.7 11.4 9.9 7.8 5.4 3.3 1.5
Temple 6.2 4.3 6.7 9.3 10.7 12.1 11.7 11.6 10.2 8.5 6.6 4.4 2.7 1.4
Charlotte 8.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 4.9 6.8 7.9 10.7 12.4 13.5 13.1 11.1 8.3 5.0
Tulane 9.6 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.8 6.6 9.0 11.5 14.4 16.9 16.3 12.0
Rice 8.8 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.3 7.1 9.1 11.0 13.4 14.4 13.0 10.8 7.4
East Carolina 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.8 6.0 8.8 13.2 16.9 21.4 24.0
Texas San Antonio 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.7 4.3 6.2 8.6 12.1 16.1 20.9 25.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.2 8.3 11.8 14.6 16.5 15.0 12.0 7.4 3.3 0.8
Tulsa 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.5 8.7 11.8 14.5 16.0 14.9 11.5 7.3 3.3 0.8
South Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.2 8.6 11.9 14.6 15.4 14.1 11.8 7.5 3.9 1.3 0.3
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 10.8 13.2 15.2 15.3 12.3 8.7 5.3 2.4 0.7 0.1
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.0 7.7 10.3 13.1 14.9 14.1 12.1 9.2 6.0 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.5 7.5 10.4 13.2 15.1 14.3 12.1 9.0 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
North Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.1 8.3 11.6 14.0 14.5 13.9 11.4 8.2 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Temple 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.9 7.0 10.2 12.8 14.8 14.3 13.0 9.2 6.3 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.7 7.0 11.0 13.6 15.2 14.8 12.2 9.2 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulane 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 5.0 9.2 12.7 14.6 15.1 13.7 10.7 7.3 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.5 9.0 12.3 14.9 15.0 13.6 10.2 7.4 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 1.0 4.1 9.1 13.7 17.2 16.6 13.8 10.6 6.4 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 1.2 4.8 9.5 13.8 16.4 16.0 13.6 9.9 6.9 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 32.6% 21.6 8.3 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 32.1% 20.8 8.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Florida 21.0% 12.8 6.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 14.8% 8.4 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 9.1% 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
UAB 8.7% 4.4 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Texas 3.7% 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Temple 4.3% 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 26.0% 24.5% 1.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 11.7 9.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 74.0 2.1%
Tulsa 23.3% 21.7% 1.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 10.3 9.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 76.7 2.0%
South Florida 18.5% 18.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 7.1 8.8 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 81.5 0.6%
Wichita St. 12.1% 12.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 6.4 2.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 87.9 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 92.3 0.1%
UAB 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 92.8 0.0%
North Texas 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 96.3 0.0%
Temple 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 97.1 0.0%
Charlotte 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 99.1 0.0%
Tulane 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 26.0% 1.0% 25.6% 6.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 23.3% 1.2% 22.7% 5.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 18.5% 0.4% 18.3% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 12.1% 0.1% 12.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 7.7% 0.1% 7.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.7% 0.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.9% 0.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 97.3 2.5
2nd Round 20.8% 0.2 79.2 20.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0