American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
61 South Florida 33.4%   11   16 - 8 9 - 3 +8.8      +5.2 69 +3.6 74 77.2 19 +7.7 74 +9.2 1
70 Tulsa 26.7%   18 - 5 8 - 4 +8.0      +7.8 46 +0.2 160 69.0 172 +8.7 63 +7.0 2
88 Memphis 12.5%   12 - 12 7 - 5 +5.9      -0.7 177 +6.6 33 74.1 48 +3.5 105 +3.4 6
94 Wichita St. 12.0%   14 - 10 7 - 5 +5.3      +1.4 131 +3.9 68 66.2 248 +3.3 112 +4.7 3
115 Florida Atlantic 4.6%   12 - 11 6 - 6 +3.1      +1.4 132 +1.7 121 74.1 49 +2.5 123 +1.8 8
117 UAB 5.9%   15 - 9 7 - 5 +2.9      +0.9 141 +2.0 116 72.8 67 +3.7 102 +4.7 4
140 North Texas 2.2%   12 - 11 5 - 7 +1.6      -3.9 277 +5.5 46 63.4 321 +0.8 147 -0.9 11
148 Temple 2.8%   14 - 9 7 - 4 +0.7      +2.0 117 -1.4 216 64.7 284 +1.6 138 +2.3 7
170 Charlotte 1.7%   12 - 11 7 - 4 -0.5      +2.3 111 -2.8 259 61.6 348 +0.8 149 +4.0 5
176 Tulane 0.7%   13 - 10 5 - 6 -0.9      -0.6 172 -0.3 180 67.1 227 +0.8 148 -0.1 9
218 Rice 0.3%   9 - 14 5 - 7 -3.1      +0.1 161 -3.2 274 64.5 291 -3.2 219 -0.7 10
251 East Carolina 0.1%   7 - 16 3 - 8 -5.1      -4.1 282 -1.0 203 70.4 132 -7.4 284 -6.5 12
349 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   2 - 20 0 - 12 -12.6      -6.6 334 -6.1 332 71.7 95 -13.3 347 -16.9 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 61 South Florida 66 94 Wichita St. 58   
Wed, Feb 11 70 Tulsa 63 117 UAB 68   
Wed, Feb 11 148 Temple 66 176 Tulane 77   
Wed, Feb 11 115 Florida Atlantic 73 218 Rice 81   
Wed, Feb 11 251 East Carolina 88 349 Texas San Antonio 72   
Thu, Feb 12 88 Memphis 69 140 North Texas 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 70 Tulsa 75 94 Wichita St. 76 51%   
Sat, Feb 14 88 Memphis 69 35 Utah St. 81 86%   
Sat, Feb 14 251 East Carolina 70 218 Rice 75 69%   
Sun, Feb 15 115 Florida Atlantic 81 61 South Florida 84 60%   
Sun, Feb 15 140 North Texas 65 148 Temple 67 58%   
Sun, Feb 15 176 Tulane 71 117 UAB 78 74%   
Sun, Feb 15 170 Charlotte 81 349 Texas San Antonio 66 91%   
Wed, Feb 18 148 Temple 76 117 UAB 75 53%   
Wed, Feb 18 140 North Texas 69 176 Tulane 63 70%   
Wed, Feb 18 170 Charlotte 70 70 Tulsa 82 86%   
Wed, Feb 18 251 East Carolina 67 94 Wichita St. 75 76%   
Wed, Feb 18 115 Florida Atlantic 85 349 Texas San Antonio 72 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
South Florida 1.4 75.2 17.3 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 1.8 43.2 41.8 9.1 3.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Memphis 4.5 5.5 10.0 20.7 18.0 16.1 12.6 9.0 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.1
Wichita St. 3.8 6.3 17.3 26.9 19.3 12.4 8.4 5.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Florida Atlantic 6.3 0.4 2.0 8.0 10.6 14.4 15.4 17.1 16.5 10.7 4.0 0.8 0.0
UAB 4.7 2.6 9.0 21.8 19.5 15.3 12.0 9.7 6.4 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
North Texas 8.2 0.1 1.4 3.4 6.6 8.1 12.4 16.3 22.2 18.1 10.6 0.9
Temple 5.2 2.6 7.4 15.7 16.0 16.0 13.5 12.0 8.8 5.2 2.2 0.6 0.0
Charlotte 5.1 2.5 6.4 14.5 17.1 17.7 15.9 12.9 8.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Tulane 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 5.8 9.0 18.7 26.1 30.5 3.4
Rice 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 6.3 11.5 22.2 29.5 21.1 3.6
East Carolina 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 5.6 15.5 76.0 0.1
Texas San Antonio 13.0 0.7 99.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Florida 13 - 5 20 - 10 0.1 0.8 4.5 16.1 30.9 32.5 15.1
Tulsa 13 - 5 23 - 6 0.0 0.1 1.7 9.2 26.4 40.2 22.4
Memphis 11 - 7 16 - 15 0.5 4.1 14.8 27.5 30.6 17.8 4.6
Wichita St. 11 - 7 18 - 12 0.1 1.6 7.9 21.4 34.2 26.5 8.3
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.5 4.1 15.6 30.7 30.2 15.4 3.5
UAB 11 - 7 19 - 11 0.5 4.1 15.0 28.3 31.2 17.1 3.9
North Texas 8 - 10 15 - 14 1.0 6.8 19.7 29.5 26.8 13.4 2.9
Temple 10 - 8 17 - 13 1.2 7.8 20.6 29.8 25.0 12.0 3.2 0.4
Charlotte 10 - 8 15 - 15 0.5 5.5 21.1 33.6 26.3 10.7 2.2 0.1
Tulane 7 - 11 15 - 15 5.6 21.1 30.1 25.6 12.8 4.0 0.7 0.1
Rice 8 - 10 12 - 17 1.7 13.8 33.5 31.2 15.3 4.1 0.5
East Carolina 5 - 13 9 - 21 8.5 27.5 32.0 20.7 8.6 2.3 0.3 0.0
Texas San Antonio 1 - 17 3 - 25 43.9 40.0 13.4 2.4 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Florida 75.2% 48.7 20.9 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
Tulsa 43.2% 17.8 20.1 3.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
Memphis 5.5% 1.0 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 6.3% 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
UAB 2.6% 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
North Texas
Temple 2.6% 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 2.5% 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Florida 33.4% 31.0% 2.3% 11   0.1 0.4 2.4 25.5 5.1 0.0 66.6 3.4%
Tulsa 26.7% 26.3% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.1 11.1 0.3 73.3 0.6%
Memphis 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 6.5 3.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 87.5 0.0%
Wichita St. 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 3.2 7.8 1.0 0.0 88.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.2 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.2 95.4 0.0%
UAB 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 4.0 1.2 0.0 94.1 0.0%
North Texas 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 97.8 0.0%
Temple 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 97.2 0.0%
Charlotte 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 98.4 0.0%
Tulane 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 99.3 0.0%
Rice 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.2 2.8
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 98.7 1.2
2nd Round 16.4% 0.2 83.6 16.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Florida 33.4% 2.2% 32.1% 7.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 26.7% 0.4% 26.5% 5.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 12.5% 0.0% 12.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 12.0% 0.0% 12.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.8% 0.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%