Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Purdue 98.3%   1   3 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 14 - 6 +20.2      +14.2 1 +6.0 34 63.7 324 +26.1 1 0.0 1
7 Illinois 96.5%   2   4 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +18.5      +10.9 5 +7.6 17 76.6 53 +18.9 8 0.0 1
10 Michigan 93.3%   2   3 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 7 +17.6      +8.3 24 +9.3 7 73.1 101 +21.2 5 0.0 1
17 Indiana 86.4%   4   3 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 8 +16.1      +10.2 10 +6.0 36 69.5 191 +17.3 15 0.0 1
23 USC 78.4%   6   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 8 +15.0      +8.1 26 +6.9 21 77.7 37 +11.0 49 0.0 1
24 Ohio St. 76.1%   6   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.8      +10.2 9 +4.6 55 67.7 244 +4.8 119 0.0 1
25 Wisconsin 73.1%   7   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 9 +14.7      +8.1 27 +6.6 24 68.7 214 +5.7 113 0.0 1
27 Michigan St. 77.3%   6   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.2      +5.9 55 +8.3 12 68.2 236 +18.7 9 0.0 1
30 UCLA 67.8%   8   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13.8      +7.0 38 +6.8 22 63.3 327 +8.0 82 0.0 1
33 Iowa 65.8%   8   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 10 +13.5      +8.2 25 +5.4 42 72.4 110 +9.4 64 0.0 1
41 Nebraska 57.3%   9   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 11 +11.9      +8.4 22 +3.5 81 69.7 185 +16.0 19 0.0 1
47 Washington 41.2%   3 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +10.8      +6.8 41 +4.0 72 68.8 208 +9.9 60 0.0 1
51 Northwestern 44.2%   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.7      +5.6 57 +5.1 44 64.6 313 +12.3 32 0.0 1
52 Oregon 41.8%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +10.6      +3.2 88 +7.5 18 69.3 196 +12.0 34 0.0 1
53 Maryland 40.0%   3 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +10.6      +4.1 75 +6.5 25 72.6 107 +9.4 63 0.0 1
85 Penn St. 10.6%   4 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 14 +6.4      +3.8 79 +2.7 94 67.1 258 +7.7 87 0.0 1
86 Minnesota 8.4%   3 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 14 +6.2      +2.7 97 +3.5 82 60.0 363 +4.8 120 0.0 1
90 Rutgers 7.8%   3 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 14 +5.6      +2.1 104 +3.5 84 70.6 160 +2.8 141 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Nov 12 86 Minnesota 60 35 Missouri 83   
Wed, Nov 12 52 Oregon 83 145 South Dakota St. 69   
Wed, Nov 12 17 Indiana 101 189 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 70   
Thu, Nov 13 16 Alabama 80 3 Purdue 87   
Thu, Nov 13 27 Michigan St. 79 175 San Jose St. 60   
Fri, Nov 14 9 Arizona 69 30 UCLA 65   
Fri, Nov 14 10 Michigan 67 74 TCU 63   
Fri, Nov 14 112 DePaul 79 51 Northwestern 81   
Fri, Nov 14 33 Iowa 81 108 Xavier 62   
Fri, Nov 14 116 Illinois St. 67 23 USC 87   
Fri, Nov 14 47 Washington 81 163 Washington St. 69   
Fri, Nov 14 291 Lehigh 72 90 Rutgers 84   
Fri, Nov 14 203 Colgate 65 7 Illinois 84   
Sat, Nov 15 41 Nebraska 105 55 Oklahoma 99   
Sat, Nov 15 57 Marquette 82 53 Maryland 89   
Sat, Nov 15 212 La Salle 69 85 Penn St. 83   
Sat, Nov 15 317 Green Bay 65 86 Minnesota 72   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Nov 16 64 Notre Dame 68 24 Ohio St. 76 79%   
Sun, Nov 16 79 Akron 70 3 Purdue 86 92%   
Sun, Nov 16 17 Indiana 84 214 Incarnate Word 62 97%   
Mon, Nov 17 52 Oregon 73 123 Oregon St. 61 86%   
Mon, Nov 17 191 SIU Edwardsville 57 25 Wisconsin 77 96%   
Tue, Nov 18 8 Kentucky 77 27 Michigan St. 73 65%   
Tue, Nov 18 192 Southern 69 47 Washington 85 93%   
Tue, Nov 18 33 Iowa 88 228 Southeast Missouri St. 68 96%   
Tue, Nov 18 304 American 66 90 Rutgers 82 92%   
Tue, Nov 18 256 Sacramento St. 61 30 UCLA 83 97%   
Tue, Nov 18 343 Chicago St. 58 86 Minnesota 78 96%   
Wed, Nov 19 16 Alabama 88 7 Illinois 91 59%   
Wed, Nov 19 176 Harvard 64 85 Penn St. 75 85%   
Wed, Nov 19 10 Michigan 84 146 Middle Tennessee 63 96%   
Wed, Nov 19 53 Maryland 81 266 Mount St. Mary's 61 95%   
Thu, Nov 20 67 Memphis 71 3 Purdue 82 85%   
Thu, Nov 20 41 Nebraska 82 95 New Mexico 75 74%   
Thu, Nov 20 23 USC 83 119 Troy 68 92%   
Thu, Nov 20 24 Ohio St. 91 257 Western Michigan 68 97%   
Thu, Nov 20 17 Indiana 93 315 Lindenwood 65 99%   
Thu, Nov 20 343 Chicago St. 64 33 Iowa 91 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Purdue 3.6 33.1 17.8 12.2 8.9 7.0 5.0 4.1 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois 4.1 23.4 17.6 13.5 10.6 8.1 6.2 5.1 4.1 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Michigan 4.9 17.4 14.8 12.7 10.6 8.9 7.2 6.2 5.0 4.1 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1
Indiana 6.2 10.3 10.5 10.2 9.6 9.3 8.3 7.9 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.2 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.3
USC 6.9 8.2 8.9 9.2 8.8 8.6 8.2 7.7 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.0 4.5 3.7 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.6
Ohio St. 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.1 8.5 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 4.7 3.9 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.4 0.7
Wisconsin 7.4 6.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.4 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.1 3.4 2.6 2.2 1.3 0.7
Michigan St. 7.7 6.4 7.2 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.3 5.6 5.3 4.6 4.0 3.2 2.3 1.7 0.9
UCLA 8.0 4.8 6.1 6.8 7.5 7.8 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.1 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.1 4.1 3.4 2.7 1.7 0.9
Iowa 8.5 4.5 5.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.7 4.9 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.4
Nebraska 9.9 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.0 3.8 2.3
Washington 10.8 1.2 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.4 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.0 5.3 3.3
Northwestern 10.8 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.2 7.3 6.8 5.3 3.5
Oregon 10.9 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.4 4.2 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.5 7.9 8.4 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.1 3.8
Maryland 11.0 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.8 7.3 8.0 8.3 8.0 8.3 7.5 7.1 5.8 3.9
Penn St. 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.8 4.8 6.1 7.5 9.2 11.5 13.7 15.8 17.2
Minnesota 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.7 7.4 9.0 11.2 13.9 16.8 17.6
Rutgers 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.7 7.0 8.7 10.6 13.3 16.6 20.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.7 12.5 13.6 13.2 11.9 8.3 4.7 1.6
Illinois 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.3 7.6 9.8 12.5 13.5 13.6 12.0 9.4 5.9 2.7 0.6
Michigan 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.8 7.0 9.2 11.3 12.5 13.0 11.9 10.1 6.7 4.1 1.9 0.5
Indiana 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.2 7.6 9.4 11.8 12.4 12.1 11.2 9.2 6.5 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.1
USC 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.6 8.6 10.2 11.6 11.8 11.4 9.7 7.8 5.4 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.5 7.1 9.0 10.8 11.7 11.7 10.6 9.0 7.1 5.0 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.1
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.4 7.9 9.6 11.2 12.1 11.7 10.8 9.0 6.6 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
Michigan St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.0 8.1 9.7 10.9 11.7 11.3 10.1 8.3 6.4 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
UCLA 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.7 10.4 11.8 12.0 11.6 9.8 7.8 5.3 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
Iowa 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.5 7.5 9.4 10.6 11.3 11.5 10.5 9.0 6.9 4.7 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1
Nebraska 9 - 11 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.0 9.8 11.6 12.3 11.6 10.5 8.5 6.4 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.7 7.4 9.9 11.0 12.0 12.1 10.8 9.2 6.7 5.2 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.1 9.6 11.9 12.3 12.4 10.7 9.0 6.9 5.0 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.6 9.7 11.1 12.2 11.9 10.4 8.4 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 7.6 9.9 11.3 12.4 12.0 10.9 8.8 6.5 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 6 - 14 0.9 3.4 7.0 10.5 13.1 14.0 13.3 11.7 9.3 6.6 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 1.1 3.9 7.2 10.8 13.4 13.9 13.3 11.5 8.9 6.5 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 6 - 14 1.4 4.4 7.9 11.1 13.3 14.0 12.7 10.7 8.6 6.2 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 33.1% 22.7 7.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Illinois 23.4% 14.8 6.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Michigan 17.4% 10.6 4.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana 10.3% 5.9 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
USC 8.2% 4.4 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 7.6% 4.1 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 6.5% 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 6.4% 3.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
UCLA 4.8% 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa 4.5% 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Maryland 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 98.3% 23.8% 74.5% 1   39.9 24.3 13.2 8.0 5.0 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.7 97.8%
Illinois 96.5% 16.1% 80.3% 2   22.7 20.6 16.5 11.7 8.5 6.0 3.6 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.1 3.5 95.8%
Michigan 93.3% 12.9% 80.5% 2   17.8 18.1 15.6 12.0 9.2 7.0 4.2 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.7 92.3%
Indiana 86.4% 8.6% 77.8% 4   8.2 10.2 11.1 11.3 10.3 9.1 7.6 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.5 0.2 13.6 85.1%
USC 78.4% 6.4% 72.1% 6   4.6 6.6 8.4 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.6 7.7 6.6 5.1 3.7 0.2 0.0 21.6 77.0%
Ohio St. 76.1% 6.2% 70.0% 6   4.3 5.8 8.0 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.3 8.4 5.7 4.6 3.2 0.2 23.9 74.6%
Wisconsin 73.1% 5.7% 67.5% 7   3.4 5.1 7.0 8.0 8.7 8.8 8.6 7.9 6.3 5.1 3.9 0.2 26.9 71.5%
Michigan St. 77.3% 5.1% 72.2% 6   4.5 7.2 9.4 9.2 9.7 9.7 7.6 5.8 4.9 4.3 4.6 0.4 0.0 22.7 76.1%
UCLA 67.8% 4.2% 63.5% 8   1.9 3.4 5.2 6.6 7.6 8.1 8.7 8.6 6.8 5.9 4.6 0.3 0.0 32.2 66.3%
Iowa 65.8% 3.7% 62.1% 8   2.1 3.5 5.6 6.2 7.5 8.1 8.7 7.8 6.4 5.3 4.3 0.3 34.2 64.5%
Nebraska 57.3% 1.9% 55.4% 9   0.8 1.9 3.3 4.4 5.7 6.8 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.4 6.0 0.4 0.0 42.7 56.5%
Washington 41.2% 1.3% 39.9% 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.5 4.4 5.5 6.1 5.9 5.3 5.0 0.4 58.8 40.4%
Northwestern 44.2% 1.2% 43.0% 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.8 6.0 6.5 6.1 6.0 5.4 0.4 55.8 43.5%
Oregon 41.8% 1.4% 40.4% 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.8 4.0 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.0 4.8 5.0 0.4 0.0 58.2 41.0%
Maryland 40.0% 1.2% 38.8% 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.4 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.1 0.5 0.0 60.1 39.2%
Penn St. 10.6% 0.1% 10.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.2 0.2 89.4 10.5%
Minnesota 8.4% 0.1% 8.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 0.1 91.6 8.3%
Rutgers 7.8% 0.1% 7.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.7 0.2 92.2 7.7%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 98.3% 1.0% 97.9% 91.4% 65.5% 41.1% 24.3% 13.7% 7.6%
Illinois 96.5% 1.6% 95.8% 84.9% 55.3% 31.4% 16.8% 8.7% 4.3%
Michigan 93.3% 2.4% 92.2% 79.3% 49.4% 26.8% 13.9% 7.0% 3.5%
Indiana 86.4% 4.0% 84.5% 66.0% 36.4% 17.9% 8.5% 4.0% 1.8%
USC 78.4% 4.2% 76.5% 56.1% 28.4% 13.3% 6.2% 2.7% 1.2%
Ohio St. 76.1% 3.6% 74.4% 54.1% 26.8% 12.3% 5.5% 2.4% 1.1%
Wisconsin 73.1% 4.5% 71.1% 50.8% 25.0% 11.5% 5.2% 2.3% 1.0%
Michigan St. 77.3% 5.2% 74.7% 54.1% 27.1% 11.8% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9%
UCLA 67.8% 5.2% 65.3% 44.0% 19.7% 8.3% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5%
Iowa 65.8% 4.9% 63.4% 42.8% 19.4% 8.4% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6%
Nebraska 57.3% 6.8% 53.9% 32.8% 12.9% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3%
Washington 41.2% 5.7% 38.3% 21.9% 7.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Northwestern 44.2% 6.2% 40.9% 22.8% 7.9% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Oregon 41.8% 5.8% 38.8% 22.4% 8.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Maryland 40.0% 6.0% 36.9% 21.1% 7.5% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Penn St. 10.6% 2.5% 9.2% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 8.4% 2.0% 7.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 7.8% 1.9% 6.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.6 0.0 0.4 3.1 13.4 28.0 31.7 18.0 4.9 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 10.3 0.1 0.8 5.9 18.8 31.7 27.7 12.2 2.6 0.3
2nd Round 100.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.4 15.2 26.9 27.5 16.6 6.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 4.0 0.2 1.9 9.6 23.3 31.0 22.3 9.3 2.2 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 93.4% 2.0 6.6 26.1 36.6 23.0 6.7 1.0 0.1
Final Four 70.8% 1.0 29.2 46.3 20.9 3.4 0.1
Final Game 43.3% 0.5 56.7 38.4 4.9
Champion 23.3% 0.2 76.7 23.3