Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   12 - 0 2 - 0 28 - 3 18 - 2 +27.5      +13.1 3 +14.4 1 81.6 7 +27.7 4 +21.0 4
3 Purdue 100.0%   1   12 - 1 2 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 4 +22.6      +14.1 1 +8.5 13 63.7 324 +24.7 8 +18.8 5
8 Illinois 99.5%   3   10 - 3 1 - 1 23 - 8 14 - 6 +20.4      +12.8 5 +7.6 24 68.4 217 +17.5 22 +14.7 8
17 Michigan St. 98.9%   4   12 - 1 2 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 7 +17.2      +7.0 49 +10.3 6 68.0 228 +23.2 10 +26.1 3
19 Iowa 91.5%   6   11 - 2 1 - 1 22 - 9 12 - 8 +16.6      +9.0 23 +7.7 21 61.3 354 +16.6 25 +11.6 11
26 Nebraska 97.0%   5   13 - 0 2 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 8 +15.0      +8.2 35 +6.8 33 68.8 199 +27.0 6 +35.1 1
28 Indiana 67.6%   9   10 - 3 1 - 1 19 - 12 10 - 10 +14.8      +7.1 44 +7.7 22 69.6 181 +10.3 59 +4.3 15
29 UCLA 78.3%   8   10 - 3 2 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14.4      +8.8 25 +5.7 43 65.2 293 +13.0 45 +26.5 2
31 Ohio St. 74.5%   8   9 - 3 1 - 1 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14.3      +9.1 21 +5.3 53 70.8 146 +12.1 49 +14.9 7
40 USC 77.8%   8   11 - 1 1 - 1 20 - 10 10 - 10 +12.9      +7.6 38 +5.3 52 74.5 56 +18.5 19 +10.3 12
45 Wisconsin 32.8%   9 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 14 9 - 11 +11.4      +5.8 62 +5.7 44 73.3 72 +9.7 61 +12.2 10
49 Washington 33.8%   9 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 14 9 - 11 +10.8      +5.1 70 +5.8 41 69.0 192 +9.0 67 +13.7 9
55 Oregon 9.4%   7 - 6 0 - 2 14 - 17 7 - 13 +9.7      +6.2 57 +3.5 78 69.3 186 +5.5 97 -2.7 18
57 Northwestern 10.5%   8 - 5 0 - 2 15 - 16 7 - 13 +9.4      +5.7 63 +3.6 77 66.4 260 +6.5 86 -2.5 17
94 Minnesota 2.1%   8 - 5 1 - 1 14 - 17 7 - 13 +5.9      +2.1 118 +3.8 73 59.8 364 +3.3 120 +18.7 6
95 Maryland 1.3%   7 - 6 0 - 2 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.9      +2.6 104 +3.3 84 70.8 142 +6.2 89 +6.4 14
122 Penn St. 0.1%   9 - 4 0 - 2 13 - 18 4 - 16 +2.7      +3.5 91 -0.8 194 70.2 161 +4.0 112 +0.6 16
139 Rutgers 0.0%   7 - 6 0 - 2 11 - 20 4 - 16 +1.1      -0.9 192 +2.0 110 67.0 249 +0.3 158 +7.5 13




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 29 113 Utah 65 49 Washington 74   
Mon, Dec 29 159 Cornell 97 17 Michigan St. 114   
Mon, Dec 29 357 Fairleigh Dickinson 43 94 Minnesota 60   
Mon, Dec 29 347 Delaware St. 50 139 Rutgers 65   
Mon, Dec 29 349 NC Central 67 122 Penn St. 90   
Mon, Dec 29 8 Illinois 90 240 Southern 55   
Mon, Dec 29 128 Kent St. 60 3 Purdue 101   
Mon, Dec 29 19 Iowa 90 304 Umass Lowell 62   
Mon, Dec 29 81 McNeese St. 71 1 Michigan 112   
Tue, Dec 30 265 Howard 60 57 Northwestern 80   
Tue, Dec 30 26 Nebraska 86 331 New Hampshire 55   
Tue, Dec 30 197 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 60 45 Wisconsin 80   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 2 17 Michigan St. 71 26 Nebraska 72 53%   
Fri, Jan 2 1 Michigan 92 40 USC 75 94%   
Fri, Jan 2 95 Maryland 75 55 Oregon 76 53%   
Fri, Jan 2 31 Ohio St. 79 139 Rutgers 69 83%   
Sat, Jan 3 19 Iowa 72 29 UCLA 67 69%   
Sat, Jan 3 3 Purdue 80 45 Wisconsin 71 78%   
Sat, Jan 3 94 Minnesota 64 57 Northwestern 71 73%   
Sat, Jan 3 8 Illinois 87 122 Penn St. 70 94%   
Sun, Jan 4 28 Indiana 77 49 Washington 70 75%   
Mon, Jan 5 26 Nebraska 76 31 Ohio St. 78 59%   
Mon, Jan 5 17 Michigan St. 79 40 USC 72 76%   
Mon, Jan 5 55 Oregon 75 139 Rutgers 70 70%   
Tue, Jan 6 29 UCLA 76 45 Wisconsin 75 50%   
Tue, Jan 6 19 Iowa 68 94 Minnesota 61 77%   
Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan 93 122 Penn St. 71 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.4 74.2 17.6 5.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Purdue 2.6 26.7 36.0 16.8 8.6 4.9 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois 3.7 8.3 21.6 24.8 16.9 11.3 7.1 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 5.0 4.7 11.3 17.0 16.6 14.6 10.6 8.4 5.8 4.4 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 6.4 1.6 6.6 10.5 11.8 13.2 12.5 10.8 9.5 7.3 5.4 4.5 2.8 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 6.1 1.6 7.3 11.5 13.1 12.6 12.7 10.6 9.4 7.2 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 8.2 0.3 2.0 4.2 6.4 8.3 10.2 11.4 11.8 10.5 10.5 8.4 6.2 4.7 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
UCLA 6.4 1.4 5.6 10.3 12.7 12.8 12.6 11.0 9.5 7.7 5.8 4.2 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 7.6 0.7 2.5 6.1 8.2 10.7 11.3 11.5 11.5 9.5 8.6 7.3 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
USC 9.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 4.5 6.8 8.3 9.7 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.4 7.9 6.4 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
Wisconsin 10.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.4 5.8 7.4 9.6 10.3 10.9 11.5 11.5 9.3 6.7 4.1 2.4 0.9 0.4
Washington 10.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.5 7.1 8.9 9.7 11.2 12.1 11.7 9.4 7.2 5.0 2.8 1.2 0.3
Oregon 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 2.9 4.4 5.8 7.9 9.8 11.5 12.7 13.5 11.6 8.6 4.8 2.1
Northwestern 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.0 4.5 6.6 9.1 12.1 13.4 14.4 13.5 10.4 6.2 2.3
Minnesota 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.6 2.5 4.0 6.0 7.8 10.0 12.4 14.8 15.0 12.5 7.8 3.5
Maryland 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.1 4.9 7.4 10.2 13.4 15.9 17.3 14.9 8.1
Penn St. 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.5 4.1 7.0 11.5 18.1 27.2 27.3
Rutgers 16.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.7 11.3 16.4 23.9 32.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.2 5.4 11.1 19.8 25.1 24.3 11.1
Purdue 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.8 6.8 11.4 16.8 17.9 17.7 13.6 6.8 2.1
Illinois 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 5.3 8.8 15.3 19.2 18.5 15.4 9.6 3.8 0.7
Michigan St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.5 7.2 10.4 14.4 16.7 17.3 13.4 8.4 4.4 1.7 0.4 0.0
Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 11.2 14.5 16.0 15.8 13.0 7.7 4.2 1.8 0.4 0.1
Nebraska 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 7.3 11.2 14.6 16.2 15.4 12.6 9.1 4.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Indiana 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 5.6 9.5 13.9 16.2 16.7 14.1 9.3 5.9 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
UCLA 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.6 7.7 12.1 14.7 16.2 15.6 11.8 7.7 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.3 8.3 11.4 14.5 16.5 15.5 11.7 8.0 4.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
USC 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.8 8.0 12.1 15.2 15.9 14.9 11.4 7.5 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.0 7.6 11.7 15.2 16.1 15.0 12.3 8.1 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1
Washington 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.6 7.7 12.7 15.5 16.6 14.5 11.4 7.4 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Oregon 7 - 13 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.4 7.3 11.4 14.5 16.7 15.1 12.3 8.3 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.3 8.7 13.6 16.8 16.7 15.3 10.6 6.5 3.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 0.5 2.1 6.3 10.0 15.3 17.2 16.7 12.7 9.4 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2
Maryland 6 - 14 0.2 1.8 5.6 11.1 15.6 17.8 16.4 13.3 8.7 5.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 4 - 16 2.0 8.2 16.2 20.9 19.7 14.9 9.4 5.3 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Rutgers 4 - 16 3.0 10.3 16.8 20.4 18.3 14.0 8.6 5.1 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 74.2% 59.3 12.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
Purdue 26.7% 15.8 9.2 1.5 0.1 0.0
Illinois 8.3% 3.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 4.7% 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Iowa 1.6% 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
Indiana 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 1.4% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 0.7% 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0% 0.0
Oregon 0.0% 0.0
Northwestern
Minnesota
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1   81.2 16.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 1   42.1 34.8 14.6 5.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 99.5% 10.5% 89.0% 3   9.5 17.1 21.7 20.0 14.1 8.1 4.6 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 99.4%
Michigan St. 98.9% 4.2% 94.6% 4   3.7 10.5 20.0 21.0 18.0 12.2 6.5 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.1 98.8%
Iowa 91.5% 3.4% 88.1% 6   1.3 3.1 8.2 12.5 13.6 14.7 12.3 10.1 6.8 5.4 3.3 0.1 0.0 8.5 91.2%
Nebraska 97.0% 1.8% 95.2% 5   1.4 4.8 12.0 16.8 18.6 16.2 10.5 6.5 4.8 3.3 2.0 0.1 3.0 96.9%
Indiana 67.6% 1.7% 65.9% 9   0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 5.6 7.0 10.8 11.8 10.8 9.6 6.7 0.3 32.4 67.0%
UCLA 78.3% 1.6% 76.8% 8   0.1 0.6 2.4 4.4 8.1 10.8 13.8 13.2 11.3 8.2 5.3 0.2 0.0 21.7 78.0%
Ohio St. 74.5% 1.5% 73.0% 8   0.1 0.6 1.8 3.9 6.4 9.7 13.3 12.6 10.9 8.8 6.2 0.2 25.5 74.1%
USC 77.8% 0.7% 77.1% 8   0.1 0.4 2.0 3.9 7.7 11.2 12.8 12.5 10.6 9.5 7.0 0.2 0.0 22.2 77.7%
Wisconsin 32.8% 0.3% 32.6% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.6 5.3 6.3 7.1 6.9 0.4 67.2 32.6%
Washington 33.8% 0.2% 33.5% 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.7 7.6 7.5 6.6 0.3 66.2 33.6%
Oregon 9.4% 0.1% 9.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.8 0.2 90.6 9.3%
Northwestern 10.5% 0.1% 10.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.7 0.2 89.5 10.4%
Minnesota 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.0 97.9 2.1%
Maryland 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 98.7 1.3%
Penn St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 89.9% 74.3% 56.5% 41.3% 29.9%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.1% 76.8% 50.3% 29.5% 16.0% 8.2%
Illinois 99.5% 0.4% 99.3% 90.5% 61.0% 32.0% 16.2% 7.6% 3.4%
Michigan St. 98.9% 0.7% 98.5% 82.7% 44.9% 18.3% 7.2% 2.7% 0.9%
Iowa 91.5% 3.8% 89.9% 66.9% 31.4% 12.5% 4.9% 1.7% 0.7%
Nebraska 97.0% 2.3% 95.8% 69.5% 30.1% 9.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Indiana 67.6% 7.7% 64.2% 39.7% 13.3% 5.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
UCLA 78.3% 6.1% 75.5% 47.0% 15.1% 5.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Ohio St. 74.5% 7.3% 71.1% 43.9% 14.7% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
USC 77.8% 8.0% 73.6% 40.6% 12.3% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Wisconsin 32.8% 7.7% 29.2% 14.8% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 33.8% 7.5% 30.0% 13.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon 9.4% 3.2% 7.9% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 10.5% 4.1% 8.5% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 2.1% 0.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 1.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.8 0.1 1.0 8.6 29.6 38.9 18.6 3.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 9.5 0.1 2.1 13.6 35.6 34.5 12.5 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 7.2 0.1 1.1 6.6 20.3 33.4 26.4 10.2 1.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.0 0.0 1.0 7.6 25.1 35.0 22.9 7.2 1.1 0.1
Elite Eight 97.2% 2.2 2.8 19.9 40.6 28.4 7.5 0.7 0.0
Final Four 84.3% 1.3 15.7 48.0 31.6 4.5 0.2
Final Game 63.3% 0.7 36.7 53.5 9.7
Champion 44.2% 0.4 55.8 44.2