IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
California
Atlantic Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.7	#91
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.5	#167
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.7	#78

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.0	#115

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	1.1%	1.2%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.7%	9.5%	2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	8.2%	9.0%	2.6%
Average Seed	9.0	9.0	9.3

.500 or above	56.3%	59.8%	29.6%
.500 or above in Conference	27.3%	29.1%	14.2%
Conference Champion	0.8%	0.8%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	16.6%	15.3%	26.2%

First Four	2.6%	2.9%	0.5%
First Round	7.3%	7.9%	2.5%
Second Round	3.4%	3.6%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.9%	1.0%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 88.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 4	2 - 8
Quad 2	3 - 5	5 - 13
Quad 3	3 - 2	8 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 1	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	77-64	88%
Nov 06, 2025	206	Wright St.	W	79-68	85%
Nov 10, 2025	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	80-61	96%
Nov 13, 2025	57	@ Kansas St.	L	67-74	27%
Nov 18, 2025	263	Presbyterian	W	76-62	89%
Nov 21, 2025	279	Sacramento St.	W	77-62	91%
Nov 25, 2025	13	UCLA	L	63-75	15%
Dec 02, 2025	89	Utah	W	75-72	60%
Dec 06, 2025	219	Pacific	W	78-66	86%
Dec 13, 2025	257	Northwestern St.	W	74-60	88%
Dec 19, 2025	358	Morgan St.	W	87-64	98%
Dec 21, 2025	267	Columbia	W	85-71	89%
Dec 30, 2025	10	Louisville	L	71-80	21%
Jan 02, 2026	63	Notre Dame	L	69-70	48%
Jan 07, 2026	44	@ Virginia	L	61-70	21%
Jan 10, 2026	76	@ Virginia Tech	L	68-73	35%
Jan 14, 2026	3	Duke	L	64-78	13%
Jan 17, 2026	23	North Carolina	L	73-80	30%
Jan 24, 2026	99	@ Stanford	L	69-72	43%
Jan 28, 2026	75	@ Florida St.	L	72-77	35%
Jan 31, 2026	55	@ Miami (FL)	L	71-78	28%
Feb 04, 2026	79	Georgia Tech	W	74-72	56%
Feb 07, 2026	42	Clemson	L	66-70	38%
Feb 10, 2026	64	@ Syracuse	L	72-78	30%
Feb 14, 2026	96	@ Boston College	L	70-73	41%
Feb 21, 2026	99	Stanford	W	72-69	61%
Feb 25, 2026	46	SMU	L	73-76	39%
Feb 28, 2026	80	Pittsburgh	W	73-71	57%
Mar 04, 2026	79	@ Georgia Tech	L	71-75	36%
Mar 07, 2026	67	@ Wake Forest	L	68-74	31%
Projected Record						16 - 14	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.8	1st
2nd													0.2	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1				1.4	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.0					1.9	3rd
4th											0.0	0.6	1.3	0.5	0.1						2.6	4th
5th										0.0	0.6	1.5	1.0	0.1							3.2	5th
6th										0.3	1.5	1.5	0.3	0.0							3.6	6th
7th									0.0	1.2	2.5	0.7	0.0								4.5	7th
8th									0.5	2.7	1.5	0.1									4.9	8th
9th								0.1	1.9	3.0	0.4										5.4	9th
10th							0.0	0.9	3.6	1.3	0.0										5.9	10th
11th							0.4	3.0	2.8	0.3	0.0										6.4	11th
12th						0.1	1.7	4.1	1.1	0.0											7.0	12th
13th					0.0	0.8	3.8	2.5	0.1												7.3	13th
14th				0.0	0.3	3.1	4.1	0.9													8.3	14th
15th				0.1	2.1	4.5	1.6	0.1													8.5	15th
16th			0.2	1.7	4.2	2.7	0.3														9.1	16th
17th		0.2	1.5	3.8	3.1	0.6	0.0														9.3	17th
18th	0.9	2.5	3.6	2.3	0.7	0.0															9.9	18th

Total	0.9	2.7	5.3	7.9	10.4	11.9	12.0	11.7	10.1	8.8	6.6	4.5	3.5	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
16-2	75.0%	0.2		0.1	0.1
15-3	50.1%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1
14-4	16.1%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-5	3.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0							0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.8%	0.8		0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%									0.0
17-1	0.1%		100.0%	12.3%	87.7%	4.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
16-2	0.3%		100.0%	11.1%	88.9%	5.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0										100.0%
15-3	0.5%		98.7%	10.8%	87.9%	6.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		98.5%
14-4	1.1%		88.1%	8.8%	79.3%	7.4				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0						0.1		86.9%
13-5	1.9%		73.4%	5.2%	68.2%	8.5				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.1						0.5		71.9%
12-6	3.5%		55.9%	3.0%	52.8%	9.3						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.3	0.0					1.5		54.5%
11-7	4.5%		34.8%	1.1%	33.7%	9.8						0.0	0.0		0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.0					3.0		34.0%
10-8	6.6%		15.8%	0.6%	15.1%	10.2								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0					5.6		15.2%
9-9	8.8%		8.7%	0.2%	8.5%	10.4									0.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.0					8.1		8.5%
8-10	10.1%		1.5%	0.1%	1.5%	10.6										0.0	0.0	0.1						9.9		1.5%
7-11	11.7%		0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	11.3												0.0	0.0					11.6		0.2%
6-12	12.0%																							12.0
5-13	11.9%		0.1%	0.1%		12.0													0.0					11.9
4-14	10.4%																							10.4
3-15	7.9%																							7.9
2-16	5.3%																							5.3
1-17	2.7%																							2.7
0-18	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		8.7%	0.5%	8.2%	9.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	1.0	1.5	2.7	1.7	0.1					91.3		8.2%