Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #295
Expected Predictive Rating -10.8 #329
Pace 69.2 #167
Improvement -4.7 #343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 D C- D C D
Defense #239 D+ C C D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 0.97 #353 -3.5 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #32 0.76 #159 +3.6 #32
Three Pointers 32% #344 1.04 #152 -4.5 #321
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #308 -4.4 #307
Freethrows 0.34 #80 65% #351 0.22 #172
Second Chance 30.4% #192 0.97 #278 0.30 #228
Turnovers 18.5% #300
Total Offense -5.6 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #189 1.37 #363 -4.2 #316
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #363 0.76 #187 +3.0 #7
Three Pointers 49% #18 0.96 #109 -2.6 #293
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #301 -3.8 #299
Freethrows 0.36 #324 69% #50 0.25 #295
Second Chance 32.9% #280 1.01 #125 0.33 #221
Turnovers 16.3% #196
Total Defense -2.0 #239

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #318 2.1% #347
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #290 5.2% #275
Possession Length 18.0 #248 17.4 #186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #105 0.24 #348
Improvement +0.6 #148 -5.3 #361

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% 31.3% 23.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 18.6% 33.2% 10.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 97.3% 85.8%
Conference Champion 22.9% 38.0% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four24.1% 26.6% 22.8%
First Round13.8% 17.3% 11.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 412 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 132 William & Mary L 78 - 81 27% +4  0 - 1 -4 -2 A- F F -2 C+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 232 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 27% -1  0 - 2 -4 -6 F B- F +1 B- C+ C-
 Fri, Nov 14 164 @Towson L 41 - 51 17% +1  0 - 3 -7 -20 F B A+ +11 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 234 Hampton W 62 - 60 48% +2  1 - 3 -5 -5 D D- B- -0 F B B
 Sun, Nov 23 110 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 10% -11  1 - 4 -1 +0 D C D+ -2 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61 - 98 0% -17  1 - 5 -10 -3 B- B- C- -4 C+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 210 @James Madison L 67 - 68 23% -4  1 - 6 -1 -3 B C F +1 B D F+
 Wed, Dec 10 45 @Baylor L 67 - 97 3% -16  1 - 7 -15 -7 F D C -6 D+ B- B-
 Thu, Dec 18 285 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 49% -14  1 - 8 -19 -10 F D+ B -8 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 336 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 63% +11  2 - 8 -1 +0 B F F+ -2 D+ D B+
 Sun, Dec 21 256 @UTEP W 72 - 71 30% +3  3 - 8 -1 -0 C+ F F+ -1 D- D A+
 Mon, Dec 22 119 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 16% -16  3 - 9 -16 +5 B- A+ F -22 F F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 314 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 44% -9  3 - 10 -15 -9 F D- C -8 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 342 @NC Central L 67 - 69 54% -3  3 - 11 0 - 1 -11 -7 F F+ D+ -3 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 357 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 64% -1  4 - 11 1 - 1 -9 -8 C- F+ F -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 331 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 72% -0  4 - 12 1 - 2 -18 -0 F A+ B -18 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 359 @South Carolina St. W 89 - 82 66% -0  5 - 12 2 - 2 -5 +9 C+ A+ F -14 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 103 - 76 92% +15  6 - 12 3 - 2 +4 +6 A+ F+ F -6 F D+ C+
 Mon, Jan 26 356 Morgan St. L 78 - 79 81% +3  6 - 13 3 - 3 -18 -10 F C B+ -8 F B C
 Sat, Jan 31 276 @Howard L 69 - 73 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 342 NC Central W 75 - 68 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 357 Delaware St. W 72 - 62 82%
 Mon, Feb 16 331 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 66 - 67 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 359 South Carolina St. W 78 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 78 - 69 81%
 Mon, Mar 2 356 @Morgan St. W 77 - 74 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 276 Howard W 72 - 70 57%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 6 -8 -6 D C- D -2 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 8.0 10.9 3.5 22.9 1st
2nd 0.3 7.7 15.6 3.9 0.2 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 13.7 2.8 0.0 19.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 8.7 4.6 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.4 4.5 5.5 0.2 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.4 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.2 7.8 18.0 26.7 26.4 14.9 3.7 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 94.0% 3.5    2.9 0.6 0.0
10-4 73.5% 10.9    6.1 4.3 0.5 0.0
9-5 30.2% 8.0    1.1 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0
8-6 1.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
Total 22.9% 22.9 10.0 8.3 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 3.7% 48.8% 48.8% 15.8 0.4 1.4 1.9
10-4 14.9% 39.0% 39.0% 16.0 0.0 5.8 9.1
9-5 26.4% 30.6% 30.6% 16.0 0.0 8.1 18.3
8-6 26.7% 21.5% 21.5% 16.0 5.8 20.9
7-7 18.0% 19.5% 19.5% 16.0 3.5 14.5
6-8 7.8% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 1.1 6.7
5-9 2.2% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.2 1.9
4-10 0.3% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 26.3% 26.3% 0.0% 16.0 73.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 15.8 22.3 77.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%