Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.1 #356
Expected Predictive Rating -11.8 #335
Pace 74.6 #45
Improvement -0.1 #187

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #335 D- D D B- D-
Defense #351 D- F D+ F F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.02 #326 -4.9 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #27 0.73 #208 +3.3 #39
Three Pointers 36% #296 0.89 #327 -5.0 #328
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #346 -6.5 #346
Freethrows 0.33 #100 74% #114 0.25 #91
Second Chance 28.8% #234 0.85 #360 0.25 #327
Turnovers 18.6% #311
Total Offense -6.9 #335

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.31 #333 -8.2 #363
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #357 0.86 #325 +2.1 #35
Three Pointers 40% #207 1.01 #173 +0.5 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #333 -5.6 #334
Freethrows 0.44 #365 72% #177 0.32 #365
Second Chance 34.6% #319 1.31 #364 0.45 #359
Turnovers 14.7% #287
Total Defense -7.2 #351

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #338 3.1% #363
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.0% #329 7.6% #314
Possession Length 17.8 #216 16.0 #19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #234 0.25 #352
Improvement -1.7 #273 +1.5 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.9% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 92.6% 68.2%
Conference Champion 17.4% 23.3% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 1.2%
First Four5.1% 5.9% 3.8%
First Round1.6% 1.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 49 - 1310 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 90 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 3% -10  0 - 1 -8 -4 D+ D+ F -3 B D F+
 Tue, Nov 11 263 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 29% -6  0 - 2 -10 -1 D- C C -9 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 306 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 21% -13  0 - 3 -19 +1 F A+ F -21 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 292 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 36% -4  0 - 4 -16 -5 D F A+ -11 F+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 232 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 12% -18  0 - 5 -33 -14 F F+ D+ -21 F+ F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 201 Drexel L 66 - 71 21% -7  0 - 6 -11 -3 C- F A -8 D+ B+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 261 Longwood L 80 - 84 29% -1  0 - 7 -12 -2 D D- C- -10 D+ F C
 Tue, Dec 9 92 @DePaul L 49 - 92 3% -24  0 - 8 -34 -15 F F F -20 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 349 Niagara W 81 - 73 55% +4  1 - 8 -7 +5 A+ A- F -12 D F F+
 Fri, Dec 19 66 @California L 50 - 97 2% -22  1 - 9 -36 -16 F+ D F+ -20 F F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 98 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 3% -13  1 - 10 -22 -2 C C F+ -20 C F D+
 Tue, Dec 23 155 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 6% -16  1 - 11 -24 -12 F B+ F -12 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 331 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 26% -6  1 - 12 0 - 1 -25 -23 F F F -3 B- D- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 359 South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 64% -2  2 - 12 1 - 1 -13 -5 D- F B+ -8 D- F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 342 NC Central L 78 - 89 52% -4  2 - 13 1 - 2 -26 -1 D+ F C -25 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 357 @Delaware St. W 80 - 79 39% +5  3 - 13 2 - 2 -10 +3 C- F B+ -13 F+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Howard W 78 - 77 16% -3  4 - 13 3 - 2 -2 -3 F A+ D- +1 A+ F B-
 Mon, Jan 26 295 @Norfolk St. W 79 - 78 19% -3  5 - 13 4 - 2 -4 -1 C F D+ -3 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Coppin St. W 80 - 77 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 331 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 359 @South Carolina St. L 77 - 79 42%
 Mon, Feb 16 342 @NC Central L 74 - 79 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 357 Delaware St. W 73 - 70 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 276 Howard L 73 - 78 34%
 Mon, Mar 2 295 Norfolk St. L 74 - 77 36%
 Thu, Mar 5 364 Coppin St. W 83 - 74 80%
Totals 9 - 17 8 - 6 -14 -7 D- D D -7 D- F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 5.8 7.5 3.2 0.5 17.4 1st
2nd 0.2 6.7 11.8 3.0 0.3 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 13.6 3.0 0.0 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 11.1 4.7 0.1 17.7 4th
5th 0.7 6.7 6.6 0.2 14.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 3.9 0.5 7.2 6th
7th 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.6 3.8 12.6 22.2 25.7 20.6 10.6 3.4 0.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
11-3 92.3% 3.2    2.6 0.5 0.0
10-4 71.0% 7.5    3.7 3.2 0.6 0.0
9-5 28.1% 5.8    0.6 2.3 2.3 0.6 0.0
8-6 1.8% 0.5    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
Total 17.4% 17.4 7.3 6.0 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.5% 18.3% 18.3% 16.0 0.1 0.4
11-3 3.4% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.6 2.9
10-4 10.6% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 1.1 9.5
9-5 20.6% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 1.3 19.3
8-6 25.7% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 1.1 24.5
7-7 22.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.7 21.6
6-8 12.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.3
5-9 3.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
4-10 0.6% 0.6
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 16.0 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.5%