NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #342
Expected Predictive Rating -12.6 #338
Pace 67.2 #228
Improvement +2.3 #81

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #321 D- D+ D+ B- C
Defense #337 D- C- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #82 1.07 #281 +0.3 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #97 0.59 #349 -0.4 #198
Three Pointers 33% #329 0.90 #321 -5.8 #337
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #339 -6.0 #338
Freethrows 0.33 #112 76% #56 0.25 #79
Second Chance 28.2% #252 0.98 #262 0.28 #266
Turnovers 17.8% #273
Total Offense -5.8 #321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 1.34 #354 -0.7 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.82 #278 +0.9 #127
Three Pointers 49% #16 1.09 #286 -5.8 #354
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #334 -5.6 #335
Freethrows 0.32 #248 71% #97 0.23 #217
Second Chance 36.3% #345 0.96 #76 0.35 #262
Turnovers 16.6% #170
Total Defense -5.9 #337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #221 0.4% #201
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.4% #343 10.6% #341
Possession Length 17.5 #184 17.3 #172
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #122 0.27 #362
Improvement +3.7 #21 -1.3 #261

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 12.3% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 1.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 76.5% 89.9% 62.3%
Conference Champion 16.2% 24.0% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four10.2% 12.1% 8.3%
First Round4.2% 5.1% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 8
Quad 48 - 98 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -30 -2 C C- D- -26 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 22 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +1 +4 D C C+ -6 C D A-
 Sun, Nov 9 202 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 13% -16  0 - 3 -22 -12 F F+ D- -11 B+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 29 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -26 -13 F D B- -13 C- F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 86 @Dayton L 55 - 74 3% -19  0 - 5 -9 -7 F A+ F -3 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 307 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 27% -10  0 - 6 -20 -5 F C B- -16 F C- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 210 @James Madison L 62 - 67 14% -4  0 - 7 -5 -7 F C+ F +1 A- B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 292 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 45% +1  0 - 8 -25 -26 F F D +1 B- D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 27 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -18 +2 C C- C -18 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 261 Longwood L 72 - 74 37% -2  0 - 10 -10 -6 F D C -4 D+ F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 112 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 5% -8  0 - 11 -17 -3 C+ A+ F -14 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 295 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 46% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -9 -4 D F D -4 C B C
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 69% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -6 +14 D- A+ B- -19 F B+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 356 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 48% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 -0 +12 A+ F B- -12 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 276 Howard L 69 - 83 41% -5  3 - 12 3 - 1 -23 -3 C+ F D -20 F+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 359 @South Carolina St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Mon, Feb 2 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 66 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 295 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 80 - 69 85%
 Mon, Feb 16 356 Morgan St. W 79 - 74 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 276 @Howard L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 357 @Delaware St. L 68 - 69 49%
 Mon, Mar 2 331 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 69 35%
 Thu, Mar 5 359 South Carolina St. W 77 - 71 71%
Totals 8 - 16 8 - 5 -12 -6 D- D+ D+ -6 D- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 5.5 7.1 2.7 0.4 16.2 1st
2nd 0.3 6.4 9.4 1.8 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 13.0 2.4 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 11.4 4.5 0.1 17.7 4th
5th 0.9 7.7 6.9 0.2 15.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 5.0 5.4 0.7 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.2 1.7 6.6 15.0 22.7 24.4 17.3 9.0 2.8 0.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
11-3 98.0% 2.7    2.4 0.3
10-4 79.7% 7.1    3.5 3.0 0.6 0.0
9-5 31.6% 5.5    0.6 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0
8-6 1.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
Total 16.2% 16.2 7.0 5.5 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.4% 31.2% 31.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3
11-3 2.8% 29.5% 29.5% 16.0 0.8 2.0
10-4 9.0% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 2.0 7.0
9-5 17.3% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 2.6 14.7
8-6 24.4% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 2.4 22.0
7-7 22.7% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.4 21.3
6-8 15.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.8 14.2
5-9 6.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.3 6.3
4-10 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-11 0.2% 0.2
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 16.0 89.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.7 33.3 66.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%