Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.5 241
Results Rating -4.0 235
Consistency 0.16 214
Pace 67.6 208
Improvement +2.3 90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 304 D+ C- F+ C+ C-
Defense C 153 F+ C+ A+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 D+ 54% 275 +0.0 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 31 D+ 34% 287 +0.8 137
Three Pointers 34% 324 C- 32% 247 -4.4 324
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 237 D+ -3.2 291
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 293
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 132 D- 0.89 339 C- 0.29 239
Opponents' Steals F+ 11.9% 352
Other Turnovers D 8.5% 316
Turnovers F+ 20.4% 348
Freethrows B- 0.33 104 C- 71% 226 C+ 0.23 127
Total Offense D -5.2 304

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 146 F+ 15.2% 349
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 43% 14 C- 5.8% 243
Three Pointers C 83% 212 D 1.4% 307
Total C+ 57% 137 F 8.2% 356

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 12 D 63% 305 +6.8 356
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 262 C- 39% 233 -0.8 125
Three Pointers 35% 329 F 40% 362 +0.3 195
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 333 F+ +5.2 348
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 350
Second Chance B- 27.6% 76 C- 1.07 251 C+ 0.30 138
Turnovers from Steals A 13.4% 8
Other Turnovers A 9.4% 12
Turnovers A+ 22.7% 4
Freethrows F 0.44 365 C 72% 191 F 0.32 365
Total Defense C +0.7 153

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 120 D+ 8.5% 276
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 203 C 4.7% 179
Three Pointers C+ 82% 140 D+ 0.4% 284
Total C+ 53% 125 C- 4.9% 227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 278 16.5 36
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 91 0.24 354
Consistency 0.14 270 0.11 69
Improvement +0.6 159 +1.8 90

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 267 244 213
Results Rating Rank 272 233 202
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 58% 18% 63%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 32 - 73 - 14
Quad 48 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 255 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 64% +4  76% 1 - 0 D+ -6 D- -7 C- C+ F C+ +1 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 103 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 14% -1  31% 1 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 D- D C+ C -1 D- B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 234 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 37% -11  1% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -20 F B F B +4 D B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 336 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 75% +7  94% 2 - 2 C -1 F -12 F B- F A+ +13 A- C+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 139 William & Mary L 58 - 92 29% -12  1% 2 - 3 F -33 F -21 F F+ F F+ -10 F D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 280 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 47% +8  88% 3 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 C C- B+ B- +3 D+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 176 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 49% +5  82% 4 - 3 C+ +4 B +6 A+ B- F C- -2 D+ B A
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  0% 4 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -3 C C+ D- C- -2 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 22 @BYU L 67 - 85 2% -5  28% 4 - 5 C+ +2 D+ -3 D A F B+ +5 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 307 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 55% -2  30% 5 - 5 C +1 D+ -3 D+ C F B +4 D- C B+
 Thu, Jan 1 184 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 51% -14  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -20 F -11 C+ F+ F F+ -9 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 96 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 24% +5  74% 6 - 6 1 - 1 A +20 A +13 A C- A+ A- +7 D C A+
 Thu, Jan 8 223 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 35% +7  98% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +4 B+ +8 B A+ D D+ -5 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 182 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 28% -6  2% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D -8 B +6 A- B- D+ F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 134 California Baptist L 58 - 74 38% -13  12% 7 - 8 2 - 3 F+ -17 F+ -10 D+ F B F+ -9 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 273 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 46% -11  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 F -25 F -26 F F F C+ +1 D- D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 29 184 Utah Tech L 70 - 76 51% -7  0% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D -11 F -12 D- A- F B- +2 D+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 273 Southern Utah L 76 - 79 68% +4  84% 7 - 11 2 - 6 D- -12 D+ -2 B D C F -10 F F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 96 @Utah Valley L 55 - 68 11% -7  23% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -4 F -13 C+ F F A +9 B D- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 134 @California Baptist L 63 - 65 20% -4  5% 7 - 13 2 - 8 C+ +3 D -5 F+ D- D- A- +8 C A+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 182 Texas Arlington W 67 - 63 50% +2  56% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C -0 D+ -4 F B C B +4 F A- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 223 Tarleton St. W 73 - 59 58% -3  26% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B- +8 D+ -3 C B F A +11 D A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 223 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 65 OT 35% +1  63% 9 - 14 4 - 9 C- -3 F -16 F F F+ A+ +12 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 273 Southern Utah W 87 - 83 68% -4  23% 10 - 14 5 - 9 D+ -5 C +1 B F D- D- -7 F C A+
 Thu, Feb 26 184 @Utah Tech L 81 - 85 29% -4  11% 10 - 15 5 - 10 C- -3 B- +5 C C+ A+ D- -8 F B C+
 Sat, Feb 28 96 @Utah Valley L 64 - 77 11%
 Thu, Mar 5 134 @California Baptist L 62 - 71 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 182 Texas Arlington L 65 - 66 50%
Totals 11 - 17 6 - 12 -4 D -5 B- D+ C- C +1 C- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ C- D+ 41% 56% 34% C- D+ C+ D- C- F+ B- C- C+ C D C- F F+ 47% 18% 35% D F+ B- C- C+ A+ F C F
1.01 54% 34% 32% -3 0 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 20% .33 71% .23 1.08 63% 39% 40% +5 +1 1.15 28% 1.1 .30 23% .44 72% .24
Nov
6		 Nebraska Omaha D- C C- C+ C- 39% 17% 43% C C- A- F C+ F A B- A C+ C- F C- F+ 37% 22% 41% C D- A- A+ A+ A+ F C- F
1.06 61% 38% 35% +2 0 1.07 38% 0.8 .31 20% .38 76% .29 1.03 60% 56% 35% +5 0 1.12 20% 0.4 .08 23% .59 74% .44
Nov
14		 Stephen F. Austin C- C- F+ F D 47% 35% 18% D- D- C+ F D C+ B+ A+ A C A+ F F D 43% 17% 40% F D- A+ F B+ C- F A+ F
0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28 1.13 35% 50% 53% +4 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25
Nov
18		 Texas St. F F A+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A D+ B F A- F D+ B A A F D+ 56% 26% 18% F D F A+ B+ A+ F B F
0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21 1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36
Nov
24		 Texas San Antonio F F F C+ F 45% 16% 39% B- F A- D B- F A C- A- A+ B+ B- A+ A+ 51% 16% 32% F A- B D+ C+ A F A+ F
0.98 30% 14% 35% -16 +1 0.73 45% 1.0 .45 24% .36 71% .26 0.81 47% 33% 17% -15 +1 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 23% .56 56% .31
Nov
25		 William & Mary F B- B- F F 31% 23% 46% D- F B F F+ F B F F F+ F F D+ F 55% 15% 30% D+ F C+ F D+ B- F A F
0.78 63% 42% 21% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.6 .20 28% .32 35% .11 1.23 85% 57% 36% +18 +2 1.43 24% 1.4 .33 19% .49 67% .33
Dec
2		 Pepperdine C+ C+ B+ C+ B- 33% 24% 43% F C D+ C C- B+ A+ B- A+ B- F+ A+ D- C- 44% 17% 39% F+ D+ A- A+ A C- F C F
1.15 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 13% .43 74% .32 1.02 67% 0% 38% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 18% .49 76% .37
Dec
6		 New Mexico St. B D A A+ A+ 36% 26% 38% C- A+ A F+ B- F A A- A+ C- A D F C- 41% 19% 41% F D+ F A+ B A F D- F
1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38 1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53
Dec
16		 Arizona D+ D- F A C 36% 36% 29% C C B- C- C+ D- A+ D- A+ C- F F F F 51% 19% 30% F F B F D- A+ F D- F
0.84 44% 25% 38% -8 -2 0.82 26% 0.8 .21 22% .43 64% .28 1.30 86% 50% 46% +22 +1 1.49 37% 1.3 .47 26% .69 79% .55
Dec
19		 BYU D+ A+ F+ F C- 19% 52% 29% F D A- B A F B A+ A+ B+ F+ F C+ D- 30% 30% 41% B+ D A F F A+ F B- F
0.94 89% 28% 21% -5 -5 0.81 33% 1.3 .42 22% .27 93% .25 1.19 73% 64% 33% +12 -2 1.22 30% 2.3 .70 25% .75 73% .54
Dec
22		 Texas Southern D+ A+ F F D+ 41% 20% 39% C- D+ D B+ C F A+ A+ A+ B F A+ A D+ 57% 20% 24% F D- A+ F C B+ D- B- D
1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40 0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23
Jan
1		 Utah Tech F A+ F F B- 46% 22% 33% C- C+ C F F+ F A+ D A F+ F F F F 37% 11% 52% D F B- B B A+ C F D-
0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27 1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21
Jan
3		 Utah Valley A C+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 29% 20% C- A C D C- A+ F A+ D A- C B- F+ D 49% 7% 44% D D A- F C A+ D F+ F+
1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20 0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25
Jan
8		 Tarleton St. B+ C- A+ A- B 43% 23% 34% C- B B+ A+ A+ D A C A D+ B+ A- A+ A+ 67% 22% 11% F A D- F F C F F F
1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35 1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46
Jan
10		 Texas Arlington B D+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 46% 26% F A- D+ A+ B- D+ A+ F+ A+ F C D- F F 52% 26% 21% C+ F F F F C- F F F
1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39 1.24 55% 45% 44% +3 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47
Jan
15		 California Baptist F+ D- D C D 52% 27% 20% C+ D+ D- F F B A+ D- A F+ D+ A+ F D- 54% 19% 27% D D- C+ B- C+ D+ F F F
0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30 1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33
Jan
17		 Southern Utah F F F F F 55% 14% 31% A- F B- F F F A+ B+ A+ C+ D- A+ D+ D 45% 12% 43% F D- D- B- D+ A- C C C
0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34 1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18
Jan
29		 Utah Tech F D- F C- F+ 48% 14% 38% B- D- C- A+ A- F D+ F F B- D+ A+ F D+ 45% 17% 38% D D+ D+ F D- A+ F B+ F
0.95 54% 14% 32% -7 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14 1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38
Jan
31		 Southern Utah D+ A+ D B+ A- 30% 32% 38% F B F A- D C D- F F F F F F F 53% 32% 16% B- F F C- F+ A+ F F F
1.11 81% 35% 40% +10 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10 1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39
Feb
5		 Utah Valley F F F A+ B 34% 27% 39% D- C+ C F F F C- F F A C- A+ A+ B+ 62% 11% 28% D- B C F D- A+ F A+ D+
0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14 0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23
Feb
7		 California Baptist D F A- F F 49% 22% 29% B- F+ B+ F D- D- A+ D A+ A- A+ A+ F C 51% 15% 33% D- C A A+ A+ C F C+ F
0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32 0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Texas Arlington D+ F F F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F B C+ B C C B C+ B F F F F 63% 23% 14% D- F A+ F A- A+ F A- F
1.00 47% 23% 25% -13 -1 0.75 33% 1.1 .38 16% .36 75% .27 0.94 68% 50% 40% +10 +1 1.26 19% 1.3 .24 33% .51 65% .33
Feb
14		 Tarleton St. D+ C+ D- B C 33% 15% 53% C C A+ D- B F A+ A A+ A C+ F C D 48% 24% 29% D D A A+ A+ A+ F A+ B-
1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52 0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22
Feb
16		 Tarleton St. F B D- F F 38% 32% 30% F+ F B+ F F F+ A- F D A+ D- D A+ D+ 35% 35% 30% A- C A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25 0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46
Feb
21		 Southern Utah C A A F C+ 62% 12% 26% A+ B F+ F F D- A+ B- A+ D- D+ C+ F F 52% 20% 28% D- F F A C A+ F C- F
1.16 71% 50% 23% +5 +3 1.18 24% 0.6 .14 16% .52 73% .38 1.11 63% 33% 69% +16 +1 1.37 38% 0.8 .29 32% .43 73% .31
Feb
26		 Utah Tech B- A+ F F C+ 42% 23% 35% D+ C F A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ D- F F F+ F 51% 14% 35% F+ F A+ F B C+ D+ C- D+
1.16 79% 23% 25% +1 0 1.04 19% 1.8 .35 10% .25 88% .22 1.22 73% 71% 39% +15 +2 1.35 17% 1.3 .21 17% .26 73% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 7.2 1.3 8.5 4th
5th 4.5 31.8 7.2 43.5 5th
6th 16.9 14.2 0.2 31.3 6th
7th 15.3 1.5 16.8 7th
Total 36.7 47.4 14.6 1.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.3% 3.9% 3.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 14.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 14.1
6-12 47.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.8 46.6
5-13 36.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 36.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 98.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 19.4%