Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #289
Expected Predictive Rating -10.0 #321
Pace 66.8 #242
Improvement -5.1 #356

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #325 D- D+ D+ D+ F
Defense #211 D+ C C- C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #244 0.94 #360 -5.4 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #14 0.78 #143 +5.0 #13
Three Pointers 31% #343 1.03 #163 -4.7 #324
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #319 -5.1 #320
Freethrows 18.1 #139 63% #359 11.4 #257
Second Chance 29.9% #212 0.95 #287 0.28 #258
Turnovers 18.0% #267
Total Offense -6.0 #325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #183 1.34 #343 -3.5 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #360 0.77 #193 +2.7 #17
Three Pointers 48% #25 0.94 #91 -1.9 #266
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.7 #268
Freethrows 19.0 #270 71% #130 13.6 #118
Second Chance 33.2% #279 0.99 #117 0.33 #207
Turnovers 15.9% #215
Total Defense -1.3 #211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #345 1.9% #336
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #284 3.3% #249
Possession Length 18.2 #271 17.5 #216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #175 0.24 #339
Improvement +0.0 #182 -5.1 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 29.4% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 32.0% 40.1% 15.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 95.9% 83.0%
Conference Champion 23.7% 29.7% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four23.8% 24.9% 21.5%
First Round15.0% 16.8% 11.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 413 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 138 William & Mary L 78 - 81 30% +4  0 - 1 -5 -1 A+ F F -3 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 244 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 30% -1  0 - 2 -5 -6 F B- F +1 B- B- D+
 Fri, Nov 14 166 @Towson L 41 - 51 18% +1  0 - 3 -8 -22 F B A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 242 Hampton W 62 - 60 51% +2  1 - 3 -6 -5 D F B -1 F B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 96 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 8% -11  1 - 4 +0 -0 D D+ C +0 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61 - 98 0% -17  1 - 5 -10 -2 C+ B C- -5 C+ C D+
 Sat, Dec 6 213 @James Madison L 67 - 68 24% -4  1 - 6 -1 -2 B+ C+ F +1 B+ F F
 Wed, Dec 10 37 @Baylor L 67 - 97 2% -16  1 - 7 -13 -6 F F C -5 D B- B
 Thu, Dec 18 269 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 45% -14  1 - 8 -18 -11 F D B+ -7 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 333 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 63% +11  2 - 8 -1 +1 B F F -2 D+ D- B+
 Sun, Dec 21 257 @UTEP W 72 - 71 32% +3  3 - 8 -1 -0 C+ F F -1 F D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 122 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 18% -16  3 - 9 -17 +5 B- A+ F -22 F F D
 Sun, Dec 28 315 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 46% -9  3 - 10 -15 -9 F F C -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 338 @NC Central L 67 - 69 53% -3  3 - 11 0 - 1 -10 -7 F F C- -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 356 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 63% -1  4 - 11 1 - 1 -9 -8 C- F F -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 324 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 71% -0  4 - 12 1 - 2 -17 +0 F A+ B -18 D- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 361 @South Carolina St. W 73 - 68 68%
 Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 78 - 62 93%
 Mon, Jan 26 363 Morgan St. W 78 - 66 86%
 Sat, Jan 31 275 @Howard L 66 - 70 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 338 NC Central W 73 - 66 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 356 Delaware St. W 70 - 61 81%
 Mon, Feb 16 324 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 64 - 65 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 361 South Carolina St. W 76 - 65 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Mon, Mar 2 363 @Morgan St. W 75 - 69 71%
 Thu, Mar 5 275 Howard W 69 - 67 58%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 5 -7 -6 D- D+ D+ -1 D+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 8.9 9.7 3.0 23.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 11.1 10.6 2.1 0.0 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 9.8 10.0 1.5 0.0 23.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.7 7.4 1.4 16.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.2 0.4 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.8 11.8 19.7 24.4 21.0 11.9 3.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 98.5% 3.0    2.6 0.4 0.0
11-3 82.2% 9.7    6.2 3.3 0.2
10-4 42.4% 8.9    2.5 4.4 1.8 0.2
9-5 8.3% 2.0    0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 23.7% 23.7 11.4 8.8 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 3.0% 50.0% 50.0% 15.4 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.5
11-3 11.9% 44.1% 44.1% 16.0 0.1 5.1 6.6
10-4 21.0% 34.1% 34.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1 13.8
9-5 24.4% 26.1% 26.1% 16.0 6.4 18.1
8-6 19.7% 20.2% 20.2% 16.0 4.0 15.7
7-7 11.8% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 1.8 9.9
6-8 5.8% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.7 5.0
5-9 1.9% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.2 1.7
4-10 0.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-11 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 16.0 72.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 15.4 2.7 55.3 42.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%