Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#343
Expected Predictive Rating-23.8#365
Pace68.7#216
Improvement-0.5#223

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#349
First Shot-5.9#339
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#258
Layup/Dunks-4.1#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#345
Freethrows+3.4#32
Improvement-0.5#233

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#320
First Shot-2.9#277
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#276
Layups/Dunks-4.1#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#265
Freethrows+2.8#37
Improvement+0.0#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 4.7% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 26.5% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 30.6% 14.0% 34.5%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 46 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 39 @Virginia L 53-87 2%     0 - 1 -19.0 -9.3 -12.9
  Wed, Nov 5 120 @Rutgers L 53-81 6%     0 - 2 -22.1 -13.4 -10.2
  Tue, Nov 18 36 @Texas L 65-99 1%     0 - 3 -18.5 -6.3 -9.9
  Thu, Nov 20 5 @Houston L 45-91 0.5%    0 - 4 -23.3 -13.6 -11.5
  Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65-68 79%     0 - 5 -23.0 -15.5 -7.4
  Thu, Dec 4 255 @Merrimack L 63-72 19%    
  Sun, Dec 7 193 @Quinnipiac L 68-81 12%    
  Tue, Dec 9 284 Bucknell L 69-71 43%    
  Tue, Dec 16 241 @Delaware L 66-76 19%    
  Mon, Dec 22 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 60-85 1%    
  Mon, Dec 29 318 Manhattan W 77-76 50%    
  Sun, Jan 4 177 Siena L 66-73 26%    
  Fri, Jan 9 288 @Fairfield L 69-77 25%    
  Sun, Jan 11 154 Marist L 59-67 23%    
  Wed, Jan 14 167 Iona L 74-81 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 295 @St. Peter's L 64-71 26%    
  Mon, Jan 19 261 Sacred Heart L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 297 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-74 26%    
  Fri, Jan 30 318 @Manhattan L 73-79 30%    
  Sun, Feb 1 295 St. Peter's L 67-68 46%    
  Thu, Feb 5 154 @Marist L 56-70 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 255 Merrimack L 66-69 38%    
  Fri, Feb 13 297 Mount St. Mary's L 70-71 46%    
  Sun, Feb 15 261 @Sacred Heart L 73-82 22%    
  Fri, Feb 20 348 Canisius W 69-66 62%    
  Sun, Feb 22 333 Niagara W 68-66 57%    
  Fri, Feb 27 167 @Iona L 71-84 13%    
  Sun, Mar 1 177 @Siena L 63-76 13%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.8 4.9 1.8 0.2 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 6.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 15.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 3.2 6.3 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 19.4 12th
13th 0.6 2.6 4.8 6.2 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 20.8 13th
Total 0.6 2.6 5.8 9.7 12.5 13.5 13.5 12.2 9.6 7.8 5.1 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 63.6% 0.0    0.0
16-4 59.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 34.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 11.4% 11.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.6% 7.7% 7.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.0% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 0.9
12-8 1.9% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 1.8
11-9 3.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.3
10-10 5.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.0
9-11 7.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.8
8-12 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.5
7-13 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-14 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-15 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-16 12.5% 12.5
3-17 9.7% 9.7
2-18 5.8% 5.8
1-19 2.6% 2.6
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%