UMKC
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.9 #346
Expected Predictive Rating -16.5 #350
Pace 71.4 #113
Improvement +1.5 #106

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #347 F D- F D+ D
Defense #301 D C- C B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #241 1.05 #308 -3.4 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #53 0.71 #228 +3.0 #52
Three Pointers 36% #279 0.90 #306 -4.4 #316
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #331 -4.8 #310
Freethrows 16.3 #247 71% #247 11.5 #251
Second Chance 28.5% #242 0.89 #336 0.25 #305
Turnovers 20.0% #345
Total Offense -7.8 #347

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.30 #329 -6.1 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #239 0.67 #70 +1.3 #93
Three Pointers 38% #256 1.05 #241 +0.7 #151
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #298 -4.1 #306
Freethrows 15.9 #114 72% #171 11.5 #253
Second Chance 34.6% #313 1.00 #123 0.35 #251
Turnovers 16.5% #190
Total Defense -4.1 #301

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #305 1.3% #287
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.2% #321 6.1% #293
Possession Length 18.0 #246 16.0 #22
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.20 #280
Improvement +1.5 #94 +0.0 #185

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.9% 8.2% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 59.8% 38.0% 66.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 44 - 124 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 126 @Southern Illinois L 78 - 101 7% -11  0 - 1 -18 +4 F A B- -20 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 11 198 Iona L 91 - 105 26% -9  0 - 2 -19 -0 C B- F -16 F C A-
 Sat, Nov 15 41 @Texas L 55 - 71 1% -11  0 - 3 -1 -8 F D+ A+ +5 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 45 @TCU L 45 - 81 2% -22  0 - 4 -21 -20 F D- F -1 A D- A-
 Mon, Nov 24 252 @Lindenwood L 67 - 80 18% -6  0 - 5 -15 -11 D- F F -4 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 197 @Weber St. L 61 - 82 12% -10  0 - 6 -20 -11 C- F F -9 F A- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 196 Idaho St. L 59 - 68 26% -0  0 - 7 -14 -10 D F F -5 A- F B
 Sat, Dec 6 255 @Eastern Washington L 66 - 90 19% -15  0 - 8 -26 -16 F C F -9 B F C
 Wed, Dec 10 197 Weber St. L 60 - 64 26% -3  0 - 9 -9 -20 F D- F +11 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 16 54 @Oklahoma L 67 - 89 2% -19  0 - 10 -9 -2 C- C- F -6 B- D- D+
 Thu, Dec 18 62 @Oklahoma St. L 79 - 91 2% -6  0 - 11 -0 +3 B- D C+ -2 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 280 @Denver L 74 - 87 22% -12  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 -6 F B- D+ -11 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 258 @Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 66 19% +2  1 - 12 1 - 1 +5 -1 D- F A- +6 C C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 148 North Dakota St. L 73 - 97 18% -18  1 - 13 1 - 2 -26 -0 A F F -26 F A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 319 North Dakota L 79 - 81 52% +2  1 - 14 1 - 3 -14 +4 A+ F F -19 F F F
 Thu, Jan 15 282 @South Dakota L 76 - 84 22%
 Sat, Jan 17 176 @South Dakota St. L 68 - 82 10%
 Sat, Jan 24 258 Nebraska Omaha L 74 - 77 37%
 Wed, Jan 28 280 Denver L 78 - 80 42%
 Sun, Feb 1 128 @St. Thomas L 67 - 84 6%
 Wed, Feb 4 282 South Dakota L 79 - 81 42%
 Thu, Feb 12 298 @Oral Roberts L 69 - 76 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 128 St. Thomas L 70 - 81 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 319 @North Dakota L 73 - 78 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 148 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 81 8%
 Thu, Feb 26 176 South Dakota St. L 71 - 79 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 298 Oral Roberts L 72 - 73 47%
Totals 4 - 23 4 - 12 -12 -8 F D- F -4 D C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.2 1.6 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 8.4 3.6 0.2 14.9 7th
8th 0.6 4.9 12.4 6.9 0.5 25.3 8th
9th 3.7 13.3 15.8 8.5 1.0 42.3 9th
Total 3.7 13.9 20.9 23.5 18.4 11.2 5.5 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 12.5% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0% 0.0
10-6 0.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-7 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-8 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-9 5.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.5
6-10 11.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.1
5-11 18.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.4
4-12 23.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.5
3-13 20.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.8
2-14 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
1-15 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
0-16
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%