American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Houston 97.3%   3   5 - 1 0 - 0 26 - 5 15 - 3 +17.3      +8.1 16 +9.2 4 61.9 335 +14.8 24 0.0 1
23 Memphis 86.6%   8   5 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 13 - 5 +13.8      +4.4 62 +9.4 3 80.4 16 +13.2 37 0.0 1
54 Wichita St. 36.9%   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +8.3      +1.1 132 +7.2 26 68.3 211 +14.5 25 0.0 1
55 Cincinnati 28.1%   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +8.3      +1.6 121 +6.7 31 69.2 189 +6.5 87 0.0 1
66 Central Florida 21.5%   4 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +7.5      +4.2 68 +3.3 81 66.8 241 +9.6 65 0.0 1
94 SMU 4.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 9 +5.4      +4.2 67 +1.1 129 71.6 113 -2.1 208 0.0 1
136 Tulsa 1.9%   4 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 11 +2.3      +1.4 126 +0.9 142 64.7 287 +2.7 134 0.0 1
152 Temple 0.6%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 11 +1.2      +0.8 150 +0.4 154 68.8 197 +1.5 158 0.0 1
162 Tulane 0.7%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 +0.3      -1.4 213 +1.7 111 67.7 228 -7.1 279 0.0 1
177 East Carolina 0.1%   5 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 -0.6      +0.7 153 -1.3 222 68.8 200 +2.7 135 0.0 1
207 South Florida 0.1%   3 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 18 5 - 13 -2.1      -6.1 333 +4.0 67 58.7 354 -4.4 238 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.5 66.6 21.5 7.6 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Memphis 2.4 30.8 35.8 15.4 8.4 4.7 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Wichita St. 4.4 6.4 12.7 19.6 17.3 15.5 11.2 7.1 5.0 3.1 1.9 0.4
Cincinnati 4.3 6.3 14.3 20.8 18.1 14.7 10.6 7.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.2
Central Florida 4.6 5.8 11.6 19.0 16.8 15.9 11.4 8.3 5.2 3.4 1.9 0.7
SMU 5.7 2.0 6.0 11.8 13.7 17.0 13.3 12.5 10.6 6.8 4.3 2.0
Tulsa 7.1 0.5 2.2 5.5 8.5 10.2 12.4 14.0 15.5 13.6 10.7 7.1
Temple 7.4 0.3 1.1 3.6 7.6 9.8 12.7 14.3 14.9 14.9 12.1 8.7
Tulane 8.1 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.0 7.0 10.1 13.3 14.0 16.7 17.5 14.4
East Carolina 8.3 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 5.4 9.4 12.2 13.7 17.2 18.4 17.5
South Florida 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 4.0 6.7 9.7 11.4 15.5 21.0 28.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 15 - 3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.9 3.0 5.6 9.8 14.3 19.9 21.3 16.5 8.2
Memphis 13 - 5 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 3.3 5.6 8.3 12.0 15.4 17.4 16.6 10.9 6.1 1.4
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 4.2 6.8 10.1 12.3 14.2 13.4 13.4 9.9 6.8 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1
Cincinnati 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 6.7 9.0 12.6 13.4 15.4 14.0 10.6 7.5 3.2 1.3 0.6 0.1
Central Florida 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.8 4.4 7.3 10.6 12.5 13.8 13.5 12.5 9.2 6.5 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
SMU 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.2 9.0 11.2 13.7 13.7 12.8 11.6 7.6 5.2 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
Tulsa 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.9 8.4 12.2 14.0 13.5 13.5 9.6 8.8 5.4 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Temple 7 - 11 0.1 1.0 2.6 5.9 9.6 14.0 13.5 14.1 13.4 10.5 7.3 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tulane 6 - 12 0.2 2.4 5.6 8.5 13.0 15.2 14.4 13.6 11.0 7.1 4.5 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
East Carolina 6 - 12 0.8 2.5 6.2 10.6 14.0 15.8 13.2 13.0 10.0 7.2 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.0
South Florida 5 - 13 1.6 5.5 10.0 15.4 15.0 14.8 12.8 9.6 7.7 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 66.6% 53.3 11.6 1.6 0.1
Memphis 30.8% 19.8 9.6 1.4 0.1
Wichita St. 6.4% 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.2
Cincinnati 6.3% 3.0 2.3 0.8 0.2
Central Florida 5.8% 2.7 2.3 0.7 0.1
SMU 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
Tulsa 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
Temple 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.1
South Florida 0.1% 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 97.3% 49.8% 47.4% 3   15.7 14.9 12.8 12.1 9.1 7.9 7.4 5.6 4.3 3.6 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 2.8 94.5%
Memphis 86.6% 25.4% 61.2% 8   4.3 5.9 6.6 8.8 8.6 9.5 9.3 8.4 8.4 8.9 5.7 2.1 0.1 13.4 82.0%
Wichita St. 36.9% 8.0% 28.9% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.7 3.5 5.7 6.2 8.9 4.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 63.1 31.4%
Cincinnati 28.1% 7.0% 21.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 3.2 4.2 5.3 6.9 3.7 0.4 0.1 71.9 22.7%
Central Florida 21.5% 5.6% 16.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.9 3.1 3.9 5.7 2.8 0.2 0.1 78.5 16.9%
SMU 4.4% 2.1% 2.3% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 95.6 2.3%
Tulsa 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.1 1.0%
Temple 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.3%
Tulane 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3 0.1%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
South Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Houston 97.3% 1.9% 96.5% 78.2% 47.8% 28.2% 16.1% 8.0% 4.1%
Memphis 86.6% 4.8% 84.4% 56.1% 27.3% 12.0% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8%
Wichita St. 36.9% 8.9% 31.9% 14.6% 5.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Cincinnati 28.1% 6.2% 24.9% 10.2% 3.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Central Florida 21.5% 4.9% 19.0% 8.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 4.4% 1.3% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 1.9% 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.8 2.9 35.2 44.6 15.6 1.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.6 4.5 41.2 41.7 11.5 1.1 0.0
2nd Round 94.5% 1.7 5.5 33.5 47.0 13.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 68.8% 0.9 31.2 52.2 15.5 1.1
Elite Eight 40.3% 0.4 59.7 36.7 3.7 0.0
Final Four 22.2% 0.2 77.9 21.5 0.6
Final Game 10.5% 0.1 89.6 10.4 0.0
Champion 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.9