American Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Houston 100.0%   1   20 - 2 8 - 1 28 - 3 16 - 2 +19.5      +9.2 12 +10.2 6 61.1 340 +19.9 3 +17.5 1
38 Memphis 72.1%   11   17 - 5 7 - 2 23 - 8 13 - 5 +11.4      +6.0 38 +5.4 42 77.1 22 +13.1 23 +12.1 3
56 Cincinnati 9.3%   14 - 8 6 - 4 19 - 11 11 - 7 +9.2      +4.5 64 +4.7 54 69.7 128 +6.6 83 +9.0 5
65 Central Florida 10.2%   13 - 8 4 - 5 19 - 11 10 - 8 +8.4      +3.4 80 +5.0 51 62.6 321 +6.9 78 +4.7 6
77 Tulane 4.3%   14 - 7 7 - 3 18 - 11 11 - 7 +6.9      +5.1 54 +1.8 118 78.7 12 +5.6 89 +10.8 4
98 Temple 2.8%   14 - 9 8 - 2 17 - 14 11 - 7 +4.8      +1.1 143 +3.7 76 66.4 232 +6.0 87 +14.7 2
109 Wichita St. 1.6%   11 - 10 4 - 5 15 - 15 8 - 10 +3.7      -0.6 195 +4.3 66 65.8 256 +2.3 135 +2.3 7
129 South Florida 1.0%   10 - 13 3 - 7 14 - 17 7 - 11 +2.3      +0.7 148 +1.5 127 69.9 121 -1.7 203 -0.4 8
167 SMU 0.5%   8 - 15 3 - 7 11 - 20 6 - 12 +0.1      -1.7 229 +1.8 121 71.5 95 -1.3 194 -0.6 9
205 East Carolina 0.2%   11 - 12 2 - 8 13 - 18 4 - 14 -1.7      -1.0 205 -0.8 201 68.9 159 -1.9 206 -4.3 10
235 Tulsa 0.1%   5 - 16 1 - 9 7 - 22 3 - 15 -3.7      -1.3 219 -2.4 248 69.7 127 -6.4 279 -7.3 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.0 97.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Memphis 2.5 6.6 57.7 19.1 9.6 5.0 1.7 0.2 0.0
Cincinnati 3.9 0.1 18.7 25.4 23.1 18.8 12.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
Central Florida 5.1 0.0 4.4 10.2 16.2 22.0 34.9 10.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tulane 3.6 0.6 23.3 28.3 23.4 17.2 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
Temple 3.5 1.0 23.3 28.5 23.2 16.6 6.7 0.8 0.0
Wichita St. 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 6.0 17.9 46.6 19.5 6.3 0.6 0.0
South Florida 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 7.7 28.2 39.1 18.6 3.7 0.7
SMU 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 13.7 29.4 36.9 15.8 1.8
East Carolina 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 9.9 25.3 45.6 16.6
Tulsa 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 7.9 29.0 59.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 16 - 2 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.0 18.0 38.6 37.2
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.2 13.8 23.8 27.5 20.1 7.0 0.9
Cincinnati 11 - 7 0.0 0.4 2.6 9.0 20.4 28.5 24.7 12.1 2.4
Central Florida 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.8 12.9 23.9 27.2 20.3 8.2 1.5
Tulane 11 - 7 0.1 1.3 6.5 17.2 28.0 27.3 15.4 3.9 0.3
Temple 11 - 7 0.6 5.6 17.9 28.5 26.6 15.0 4.9 0.9 0.1
Wichita St. 8 - 10 0.8 5.6 15.4 26.4 26.4 16.6 7.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
South Florida 7 - 11 0.8 5.5 16.8 27.1 26.4 16.2 5.9 1.2 0.1
SMU 6 - 12 4.2 17.0 28.7 27.2 15.7 5.7 1.2 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 4 - 14 8.3 24.1 31.0 22.8 10.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 3 - 15 11.2 29.0 31.2 19.2 7.4 1.7 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 97.3% 92.1 4.9 0.3 0.0
Memphis 6.6% 2.3 4.0 0.2 0.0
Cincinnati 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 1.0% 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0
South Florida
SMU
East Carolina
Tulsa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 64.7% 35.3% 1   59.1 32.0 6.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Memphis 72.1% 12.5% 59.6% 11   0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.5 7.5 9.3 13.4 18.1 13.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 27.9 68.1%
Cincinnati 9.3% 7.2% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 90.7 2.3%
Central Florida 10.2% 6.0% 4.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 5.1 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 89.8 4.5%
Tulane 4.3% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 95.7 0.3%
Temple 2.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 97.2 0.6%
Wichita St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.4 0.0%
South Florida 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%
SMU 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
East Carolina 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.6% 74.7% 52.2% 34.1% 21.6% 13.4%
Memphis 72.1% 15.2% 64.8% 33.0% 11.4% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Cincinnati 9.3% 1.5% 8.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 10.2% 3.1% 8.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 4.3% 0.2% 4.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.8% 0.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 18.1 62.5 18.9 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 24.1 60.6 15.0 0.3
2nd Round 98.5% 1.4 1.5 61.0 35.4 2.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 78.8% 0.9 21.2 69.2 9.4 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 55.0% 0.6 45.0 52.7 2.2 0.0
Final Four 35.5% 0.4 64.5 35.0 0.4
Final Game 22.1% 0.2 77.9 22.1 0.1
Champion 13.6% 0.1 86.4 13.6