American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 Memphis 26.1%   11   2 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 12 - 6 +7.5      +2.5 110 +5.0 48 74.6 61 +1.5 153 0.0 1
86 South Florida 18.9%   4 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +6.3      +4.2 75 +2.1 108 79.1 14 +3.9 116 0.0 1
93 Tulsa 16.8%   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +5.6      +4.8 69 +0.8 140 65.7 278 +11.8 51 0.0 1
98 Wichita St. 13.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5.0      +2.9 101 +2.2 103 66.0 271 -0.1 177 0.0 1
113 UAB 8.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +3.4      +1.8 120 +1.6 123 72.6 104 +2.8 137 0.0 1
127 Florida Atlantic 7.1%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +2.6      +3.3 92 -0.7 189 67.8 231 +3.6 126 0.0 1
148 North Texas 3.7%   6 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 +0.6      -1.7 212 +2.3 101 62.5 346 +2.0 147 0.0 1
154 Temple 3.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -0.1      +3.9 78 -4.0 314 69.0 197 -0.9 183 0.0 1
169 Tulane 2.1%   6 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 11 -0.9      +2.7 106 -3.6 293 66.7 259 +3.1 133 0.0 1
189 Charlotte 1.3%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -2.0      +0.7 142 -2.7 253 61.2 355 -5.7 253 0.0 1
216 Rice 0.7%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -3.4      -1.9 226 -1.5 210 64.7 302 -8.3 289 0.0 1
249 East Carolina 0.4%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -4.8      -4.0 277 -0.8 192 72.2 114 -8.2 286 0.0 1
270 Texas San Antonio 0.3%   2 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -5.9      -4.2 283 -1.7 220 73.1 95 -7.4 276 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Nov 30 127 Florida Atlantic 65 111 St. Bonaventure 70   
Sun, Nov 30 150 South Alabama 82 270 Texas San Antonio 58   
Sun, Nov 30 148 North Texas 72 324 Prairie View 69   
Mon, Dec 1 140 Middle Tennessee 76 113 UAB 61   
Mon, Dec 1 154 Temple 56 41 Villanova 74   
Tue, Dec 2 280 Grambling St. 63 169 Tulane 65   
Tue, Dec 2 283 Houston Christian 75 148 North Texas 77   
Tue, Dec 2 189 Charlotte 74 321 N.C. A&T 57   
Tue, Dec 2 249 East Carolina 68 340 Maryland Eastern Shore 56   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 3 216 Rice 68 223 Texas St. 65 63%   
Wed, Dec 3 74 Memphis 83 212 New Orleans 69 89%   
Thu, Dec 4 86 South Florida 81 43 Utah St. 83 59%   
Fri, Dec 5 114 Drake 73 113 UAB 70 61%   
Sat, Dec 6 92 Northern Iowa 67 98 Wichita St. 63 64%   
Sat, Dec 6 28 Baylor 82 74 Memphis 78 62%   
Sat, Dec 6 54 Akron 87 169 Tulane 79 77%   
Sat, Dec 6 249 East Carolina 76 294 UNC Greensboro 70 70%   
Sat, Dec 6 240 Missouri St. 61 93 Tulsa 75 89%   
Sun, Dec 7 166 Florida Gulf Coast 77 127 Florida Atlantic 78 52%   
Sun, Dec 7 148 North Texas 62 45 TCU 70 78%   
Sun, Dec 7 189 Charlotte 67 43 Utah St. 78 84%   
Sun, Dec 7 11 Alabama 99 270 Texas San Antonio 71 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3.1 34.3 20.1 13.4 9.6 7.1 5.0 3.6 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1
South Florida 3.9 22.1 17.3 14.3 12.1 9.6 7.6 5.8 4.2 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2
Tulsa 3.8 23.1 18.1 14.1 11.0 9.0 7.1 5.6 4.2 3.3 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.2
Wichita St. 4.2 17.3 15.9 14.2 12.7 10.4 8.6 6.7 5.3 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3
UAB 5.2 10.4 11.8 12.1 11.8 11.0 10.3 8.9 7.3 5.8 4.6 3.1 2.0 0.8
Florida Atlantic 5.7 8.1 9.8 10.7 11.0 11.2 10.3 9.7 8.4 7.0 5.8 4.2 2.7 1.2
North Texas 6.9 3.7 5.7 7.6 8.9 9.7 10.3 10.5 10.4 9.7 8.6 7.0 5.0 2.9
Temple 6.5 4.3 6.7 8.7 10.1 10.6 11.0 10.4 9.9 8.7 7.3 5.7 4.2 2.5
Tulane 8.4 1.6 2.9 4.1 5.2 6.4 7.7 9.2 10.2 11.0 12.3 11.9 10.3 7.3
Charlotte 8.2 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.0 8.3 10.2 10.6 11.7 11.4 11.0 9.2 6.6
Rice 9.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.1 6.4 8.3 9.5 11.1 12.6 13.5 13.4 11.7
East Carolina 10.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 4.3 6.0 7.9 9.6 12.3 15.0 18.0 18.8
Texas San Antonio 10.4 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.7 5.0 6.6 8.6 11.3 14.5 18.6 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.9 8.6 11.9 13.8 15.0 14.4 11.2 7.5 3.4 0.9
South Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 6.0 9.3 11.5 14.0 14.9 13.6 10.8 7.2 3.9 1.5 0.4
Tulsa 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.9 5.7 8.5 11.2 13.4 14.2 13.3 11.4 7.8 4.5 1.9 0.5
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.4 7.5 10.3 12.9 14.6 14.3 12.7 9.4 5.7 2.7 1.0 0.2
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.8 7.3 10.3 12.8 13.8 13.8 12.1 9.4 6.1 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.0 8.8 11.7 13.2 14.1 12.9 10.6 7.6 4.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
North Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.4 6.5 9.3 12.1 13.3 14.2 12.8 10.4 7.4 4.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.2 8.2 11.1 13.1 14.1 13.8 11.2 8.5 5.3 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulane 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.9 7.8 10.9 13.1 14.0 13.1 11.6 8.4 6.0 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 7.0 10.3 12.9 14.3 14.1 12.4 9.3 6.3 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.4 6.7 10.3 12.9 14.7 14.1 12.3 9.8 6.6 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 0.6 2.8 5.9 9.8 13.7 15.4 14.5 12.7 9.8 6.5 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 1.2 4.2 8.2 11.7 14.5 15.2 13.8 11.1 8.3 5.5 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 34.3% 23.3 8.2 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Florida 22.1% 14.0 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 23.1% 14.7 6.2 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wichita St. 17.3% 10.4 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
UAB 10.4% 5.7 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 8.1% 4.4 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 3.7% 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Temple 4.3% 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tulane 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 26.1% 24.8% 1.3% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 9.4 9.6 2.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 73.9 1.7%
South Florida 18.9% 18.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 5.6 9.2 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 81.1 0.5%
Tulsa 16.8% 16.1% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 5.3 8.3 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 83.2 0.9%
Wichita St. 13.6% 13.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.4 6.5 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 86.4 0.1%
UAB 8.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 91.3 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 7.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 92.9 0.1%
North Texas 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 96.3 0.0%
Temple 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 97.0 0.0%
Tulane 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 97.9 0.0%
Charlotte 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 98.7 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.3 0.0%
East Carolina 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 26.1% 0.9% 25.7% 7.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 18.9% 0.4% 18.7% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 16.8% 0.5% 16.6% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 13.6% 0.1% 13.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 8.7% 0.1% 8.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 7.1% 0.1% 7.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.7% 0.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.0 1.7 0.0
2nd Round 20.3% 0.2 79.8 20.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0