American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
67 South Florida 29.6%   11   13 - 7 6 - 2 +8.4      +5.3 66 +3.1 87 78.0 18 +7.3 77 +8.9 1
70 Tulsa 27.0%   16 - 3 6 - 2 +8.0      +8.4 30 -0.4 176 69.3 168 +9.9 61 +7.8 2
92 Memphis 14.1%   10 - 10 5 - 3 +6.1      -0.9 190 +6.9 28 73.5 62 +4.4 97 +5.0 6
97 Wichita St. 11.1%   12 - 8 5 - 3 +5.2      +2.7 103 +2.5 102 65.2 277 +3.1 114 +5.2 5
107 Florida Atlantic 9.0%   12 - 8 6 - 3 +4.1      +1.9 123 +2.3 107 74.5 44 +5.1 93 +7.2 3
119 UAB 3.8%   12 - 8 4 - 4 +2.7      +1.5 129 +1.1 128 72.6 82 +2.3 127 +2.0 7
144 North Texas 1.8%   10 - 9 3 - 5 +1.1      -4.6 296 +5.7 46 63.0 326 +1.0 147 -0.7 9
147 Temple 2.4%   12 - 8 5 - 3 +0.7      +1.9 121 -1.3 215 64.6 292 +0.7 149 +0.7 8
164 Charlotte 2.0%   11 - 9 6 - 2 -0.5      +2.6 106 -3.0 272 61.3 351 +0.7 151 +5.5 4
180 Tulane 0.5%   11 - 9 3 - 5 -1.5      -0.5 183 -1.0 204 67.0 230 -0.4 168 -2.7 11
232 Rice 0.2%   7 - 12 3 - 5 -3.9      -0.5 181 -3.4 285 64.5 296 -4.7 236 -2.2 10
257 East Carolina 0.1%   5 - 15 1 - 7 -5.5      -5.4 312 -0.1 169 71.1 120 -8.8 309 -10.8 12
342 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   2 - 17 0 - 9 -11.7      -6.8 334 -4.9 315 72.2 90 -13.2 346 -16.6 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 28 144 North Texas 66 70 Tulsa 82   
Wed, Jan 28 164 Charlotte 80 147 Temple 76   
Wed, Jan 28 119 UAB 83 342 Texas San Antonio 73   
Wed, Jan 28 257 East Carolina 77 232 Rice 83   
Wed, Jan 28 67 South Florida 97 180 Tulane 83   
Thu, Jan 29 107 Florida Atlantic 65 92 Memphis 92   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 164 Charlotte 75 232 Rice 68 73%   
Sat, Jan 31 144 North Texas 68 119 UAB 67 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 67 South Florida 81 147 Temple 76 68%   
Sun, Feb 1 70 Tulsa 79 97 Wichita St. 74 71%   
Sun, Feb 1 92 Memphis 77 180 Tulane 66 84%   
Sun, Feb 1 257 East Carolina 69 107 Florida Atlantic 82 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
South Florida 2.1 47.8 23.8 12.4 7.8 4.1 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 2.1 47.5 26.1 12.4 6.5 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Memphis 4.0 12.6 15.8 18.7 17.0 12.6 9.5 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 4.2 11.1 14.3 16.1 15.6 15.6 11.0 8.9 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 3.5 14.6 19.6 20.7 16.4 12.2 8.0 4.9 2.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
UAB 6.5 1.0 3.2 6.6 9.4 12.2 14.4 16.5 16.5 13.5 5.2 1.4 0.2
North Texas 7.7 0.2 1.1 2.3 5.0 7.5 10.7 14.3 18.5 20.6 12.9 5.9 1.1
Temple 6.2 1.9 4.5 7.8 9.9 12.8 15.7 16.3 14.7 10.1 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 5.3 2.9 7.0 11.5 13.2 16.4 17.9 15.7 9.4 4.7 1.2 0.1
Tulane 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 4.1 7.4 14.9 28.6 33.2 8.2 0.0
Rice 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.2 4.9 9.1 18.7 32.3 23.5 7.2 0.0
East Carolina 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.4 10.2 21.7 59.5 5.1
Texas San Antonio 12.9 0.2 0.9 11.4 87.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Florida 13 - 5 20 - 10 0.1 0.8 3.7 9.2 18.4 26.9 24.1 13.2 3.6
Tulsa 13 - 5 23 - 6 0.0 0.3 0.6 3.1 8.8 19.0 25.7 24.7 14.3 3.6
Memphis 11 - 7 17 - 14 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 8.2 15.6 23.1 23.5 16.4 7.3 1.7
Wichita St. 11 - 7 18 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 9.8 19.0 23.8 21.6 14.0 5.5 1.1
Florida Atlantic 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.2 1.2 6.0 13.3 22.9 25.6 20.4 8.6 1.9
UAB 9 - 9 17 - 13 0.0 0.5 2.5 8.5 15.4 23.4 23.3 15.9 8.0 2.3 0.3
North Texas 8 - 10 15 - 14 0.0 0.9 3.4 8.2 15.2 22.2 21.9 16.7 8.6 2.6 0.3
Temple 10 - 8 17 - 13 0.3 2.1 6.9 14.1 21.8 22.7 17.9 9.5 3.9 0.6 0.1
Charlotte 10 - 8 15 - 15 0.1 1.9 7.5 18.4 27.3 23.1 14.9 5.2 1.5 0.2
Tulane 6 - 12 14 - 16 2.3 10.2 19.4 24.4 21.6 12.9 6.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 11 - 18 0.8 6.4 15.9 23.4 24.7 17.1 7.6 3.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
East Carolina 4 - 14 8 - 22 1.6 9.8 20.2 26.8 21.8 12.8 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
Texas San Antonio 1 - 17 3 - 25 26.8 36.9 23.8 9.4 2.5 0.5 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Florida 47.8% 27.5 14.1 4.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
Tulsa 47.5% 27.5 13.8 4.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Memphis 12.6% 4.5 4.5 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 11.1% 4.0 4.1 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
Florida Atlantic 14.6% 5.1 5.4 3.1 0.7 0.3 0.0
UAB 1.0% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1
North Texas 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Temple 1.9% 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 2.9% 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.0% 0.0
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Florida 29.6% 28.8% 0.8% 11   0.1 0.3 0.9 15.6 12.4 0.3 70.4 1.2%
Tulsa 27.0% 26.3% 0.7% 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.9 13.7 0.7 73.0 0.9%
Memphis 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.3 7.7 3.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 85.9 0.0%
Wichita St. 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 7.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 89.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.8 5.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 91.0 0.0%
UAB 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 96.2 0.0%
North Texas 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.0%
Temple 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 97.6 0.0%
Charlotte 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 98.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 99.2 0.7
2nd Round 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Florida 29.6% 0.8% 29.2% 6.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 27.0% 0.7% 26.6% 5.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 14.1% 0.0% 14.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 11.1% 0.0% 11.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%