East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #248
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #284
Pace 70.5 #134
Improvement +3.8 #38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #302 D- C C- C+ C-
Defense #161 C- D+ C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.04 #309 -0.8 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #77 0.68 #304 +1.1 #112
Three Pointers 32% #338 0.87 #337 -6.7 #348
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #341 -6.3 #343
Freethrows 0.34 #69 70% #265 0.24 #112
Second Chance 33.1% #111 0.97 #261 0.32 #157
Turnovers 18.0% #247
Total Offense -4.8 #302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.14 #149 +1.4 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #151 0.79 #245 -0.7 #243
Three Pointers 42% #148 1.08 #271 -1.8 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #215 -1.1 #216
Freethrows 0.27 #64 74% #297 0.20 #94
Second Chance 29.9% #144 1.18 #344 0.35 #278
Turnovers 17.8% #125
Total Defense -0.1 #161

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #256 -0.4% #130
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.4% #345 2.5% #225
Possession Length 17.3 #177 16.7 #91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #221 0.21 #312
Improvement +2.4 #61 +1.4 #102

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 3.3% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 2.0% 5.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 38.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 46 - 610 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 260 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 64% +2  1 - 0 -6 +1 F+ A+ B+ -7 D F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 136 @Richmond L 72 - 87 19% -10  1 - 1 -10 -3 D D+ C -6 D+ B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 117 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 15% -12  1 - 2 -19 -8 F D+ C- -12 F B- B-
 Fri, Nov 21 246 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 61% -7  1 - 3 -20 -11 D- C+ D -9 F+ A F
 Tue, Nov 25 10 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  1 - 4 -13 -6 C+ C F -6 D C- D
 Thu, Nov 27 142 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 28% -3  1 - 5 -8 -17 F F+ F +9 A+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 337 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 81% +5  2 - 5 -2 +3 B D+ C- -3 D C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 312 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 75% -2  2 - 6 -16 -3 F A+ F -13 C F C
 Thu, Dec 11 173 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 47% -9  2 - 7 -17 -15 F C- C -3 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 203 Buffalo W 73 - 70 53% -8  3 - 7 -3 -5 F A- A+ +2 A+ D B+
 Wed, Dec 17 263 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 65% +10  4 - 7 +12 -1 B+ D+ F +14 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 29 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  4 - 8 -30 -19 F D F -7 F C- B
 Wed, Dec 31 171 Tulane L 70 - 79 46% -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -13 -1 D D A+ -13 D F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 144 @Temple L 67 - 75 20% -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 -0 B- C- D -4 A- F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 120 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 32% -2  4 - 11 0 - 3 -2 -2 D+ B- F+ -0 B- C D
 Wed, Jan 14 72 @South Florida L 71 - 82 8% -11  4 - 12 0 - 4 +0 -1 D C A +2 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 156 Charlotte L 70 - 73 43% -7  4 - 13 0 - 5 -6 -3 D- C- A+ -3 F C- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 99 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 12% -14  4 - 14 0 - 6 -9 -5 F D A+ -6 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 148 @North Texas W 63 - 59 20% +3  5 - 14 1 - 6 +8 +3 D A+ F +5 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 232 Rice L 77 - 83 58% -7  5 - 15 1 - 7 -13 -1 F+ B- A- -12 F D- C
 Sun, Feb 1 108 @Florida Atlantic W 76 - 75 14% -1  6 - 15 2 - 7 +8 +10 D+ B+ B+ -2 D- C A
 Sat, Feb 7 144 Temple L 70 - 73 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 342 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 232 @Rice L 70 - 74 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 99 Wichita St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @Charlotte L 67 - 75 22%
 Wed, Feb 25 342 @Texas San Antonio W 75 - 71 64%
 Sun, Mar 1 96 Memphis L 68 - 75 25%
 Thu, Mar 5 69 Tulsa L 73 - 83 18%
 Sun, Mar 8 120 @UAB L 69 - 80 16%
Totals 9 - 21 5 - 13 -5 -5 D- C C- +0 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 0.4 1.9 8th
9th 0.4 2.5 1.9 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.9 1.2 0.0 14.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.8 10.6 12.8 3.1 0.1 28.5 11th
12th 0.5 7.4 19.1 16.2 4.2 0.1 47.5 12th
13th 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.7 13th
Total 1.3 8.3 21.1 27.6 22.8 12.7 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-10 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 12.7% 12.7
6-12 22.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 22.7
5-13 27.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.6
4-14 21.1% 21.1
3-15 8.3% 8.3
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%