East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.4 235
Results Rating -5.6 250
Consistency 0.15 152
Pace 70.8 114
Improvement +4.4 46

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 257 D- B- C- B- D+
Defense C- 209 C- D+ C B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 D 52% 326 -1.9 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 30 C 39% 156 +2.7 50
Three Pointers 33% 337 D- 29% 339 -6.4 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 292 D- -4.7 328
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 336
Second Chance B- 33.4% 89 C 1.04 157 B- 0.35 91
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 238
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 233
Turnovers C- 17.5% 234
Freethrows B 0.35 44 D+ 70% 254 B- 0.25 87
Total Offense D+ -3.2 257

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 123 C- 11.5% 212
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 144 A- 1.2% 9
Three Pointers C 85% 173 B+ 0.1% 15
Total C- 53% 232 B- 5.0% 105


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 254 C- 60% 218 -0.6 151
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 96 C 38% 175 +0.8 258
Three Pointers 41% 190 D+ 36% 254 +0.8 232
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 100 C- +1.4 243
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 214
Second Chance C 30.5% 195 D- 1.15 330 D+ 0.35 287
Turnovers from Steals C 9.5% 176
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 170
Turnovers C 16.8% 167
Freethrows B 0.26 64 C- 74% 254 B- 0.19 76
Total Defense C- -1.2 209

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 56% 326 B 15.5% 42
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 303 D+ 3.6% 264
Three Pointers C- 85% 206 C 0.8% 163
Total D+ 61% 298 B- 6.8% 79

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 152 16.9 101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 237 0.21 312
Consistency 0.11 113 0.11 55
Improvement +5.1 11 -0.6 218

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 247 233 217
Results Rating Rank 260 249 229
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 6 - 12
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 47 - 711 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 225 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 59% +2  62% 1 - 0 C- -4 C- -1 F+ A+ B C- -3 C- F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 135 @Richmond L 72 - 87 20% -10  18% 1 - 1 D -10 D -6 D D+ C- D+ -4 D B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 114 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 16% -12  7% 1 - 2 F -19 F+ -9 F+ C- C- F -11 F C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 246 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 64% -7  0% 1 - 3 F -20 F -14 F+ C+ D D -6 F+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 10 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  0% 1 - 4 D- -13 F -11 C+ C- F C- -2 D+ D+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 139 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 30% -3  8% 1 - 5 D+ -8 F -20 F F+ F A+ +12 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Dec 2 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 88% +5  60% 2 - 5 D+ -5 C -0 B D+ C- C- -3 D- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 297 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 74% -2  24% 2 - 6 F+ -15 D -5 F A+ F F+ -10 B- F C
 Thu, Dec 11 187 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 51% -9  0% 2 - 7 F+ -18 F -18 F C- C C -0 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 218 Buffalo W 73 - 70 57% -8  21% 3 - 7 C- -3 D- -7 F A A+ B +4 A D- B+
 Wed, Dec 17 266 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 66% +10  98% 4 - 7 B+ +12 D+ -3 B+ D+ F A+ +16 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 29 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  1% 4 - 8 F -30 F -20 F D F D -5 F D- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 207 Tulane L 70 - 79 53% -1  32% 4 - 9 0 - 1 D- -14 D+ -4 D- D+ A+ F -11 D- F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 145 @Temple L 67 - 75 22% -9  0% 4 - 10 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 B- C- F+ C- -2 A- F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 117 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 34% -2  26% 4 - 11 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 D+ B- F+ C+ +1 B D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 52 @South Florida L 71 - 82 6% -11  1% 4 - 12 0 - 4 C+ +3 C- -2 D C A B +5 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 178 Charlotte L 70 - 73 49% -7  6% 4 - 13 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -6 D- D+ A+ C -1 F D A+
 Wed, Jan 21 87 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 10% -14  0% 4 - 14 0 - 6 D+ -7 D -5 F D A+ D+ -4 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 136 @North Texas W 63 - 59 20% +3  86% 5 - 14 1 - 6 B +8 C -0 D- A+ F A +9 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 224 Rice L 77 - 83 58% -7  2% 5 - 15 1 - 7 D- -13 D+ -3 F+ B- B+ F+ -9 F D- C+
 Sun, Feb 1 128 @Florida Atlantic W 76 - 75 18% -1  24% 6 - 15 2 - 7 B- +6 B +7 D+ A- B- C -1 F+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 145 Temple L 73 - 81 42% -5  19% 6 - 16 2 - 8 D -10 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ F -13 C D+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 335 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 72 84% +12  89% 7 - 16 3 - 8 C +1 B- +4 F A+ A D+ -3 C- C- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 224 @Rice W 85 - 75 35% +6  83% 8 - 16 4 - 8 B +9 A +13 B+ A+ A- C- -3 B D- F+
 Wed, Feb 18 87 Wichita St. L 89 - 92 2OT 22% +1  60% 8 - 17 4 - 9 C +1 C- -2 C+ D+ A- B- +3 C- A B
 Sat, Feb 21 178 @Charlotte L 56 - 68 27% -7  0% 8 - 18 4 - 10 D -10 F -17 F D- F+ B+ +6 A+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 25 335 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 81 67% -2  26% 9 - 18 5 - 10 D+ -8 B- +5 C+ A+ F F -13 F F A+
 Sun, Mar 1 120 Memphis W 84 - 68 34% +10  87% 10 - 18 6 - 10 A- +16 B +7 A+ C- C- A- +8 A+ D- D
 Thu, Mar 5 65 Tulsa L 66 - 93 16% -20  0% 10 - 19 6 - 11 F -21 D- -7 F A+ F F -15 F F F
 Sun, Mar 8 117 @UAB L 83 - 90 17% +2  72% 10 - 20 6 - 12 C -1 B- +5 F+ A+ C+ D -5 F A+ D+
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 12 -4 D+ -3 F D- D+ C- -1 D- D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C D- D- 40% 55% 33% D+ D- B- C B- C- B D+ B- C- C- C D+ C- 37% 23% 41% B- C- C D- D+ C B C- B-
1.04 52% 39% 29% -5 -1 0.91 33% 1.0 .35 17% .35 70% .25 1.10 60% 38% 36% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.2 .35 17% .26 74% .26
Nov
4		 Georgia Southern C- B D F F+ 45% 22% 33% D+ F+ A- A A+ B A+ F A+ C- C+ B+ D C 55% 11% 35% F+ C- F F F B- F A+ D
1.14 64% 33% 22% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.2 .54 16% .61 63% .39 1.11 53% 33% 37% -2 +2 1.04 35% 1.3 .45 17% .45 60% .27
Nov
8		 Richmond D C+ A- F D 28% 32% 40% D D F+ A D+ C- A+ C- A+ D+ F F A+ D+ 37% 18% 45% F D A+ F B+ C+ F D- F
0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36 1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46
Nov
18		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ C F D 15% 43% 43% F F+ C D- C- C- C- B C F F B F F 23% 23% 53% B- F B- D+ C+ B+ F F+ F
0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19 1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38
Nov
21		 Charleston Southern F C- D+ F F+ 47% 33% 20% C- F+ D A+ C+ D B F D D C A+ F F 22% 22% 56% A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ F B+ F C+
0.92 54% 35% 10% -10 -1 0.80 26% 1.3 .34 14% .40 54% .22 1.10 58% 25% 48% +9 -1 1.18 15% 0.8 .12 13% .21 77% .16
Nov
25		 Michigan St. F F B A+ C 48% 25% 28% B C+ A F C- F A+ D+ A+ C- D C+ F D 32% 29% 39% B D+ B+ F D+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.78 26% 40% 55% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.5 .14 33% .54 69% .37 1.24 67% 38% 45% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.3 .47 15% .20 67% .13
Nov
27		 St. Bonaventure F F D C- F 40% 27% 33% D+ F C+ F F+ F A+ A A+ A+ C B+ A A 23% 38% 40% A+ A+ A+ F B- B+ B- F C
0.82 22% 33% 33% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.6 .19 24% .47 84% .39 0.95 58% 35% 29% -4 -3 0.87 25% 1.2 .31 20% .25 86% .21
Dec
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore C C F A+ B 43% 20% 38% C- B B- F D+ C- A+ D A C- F F A F 22% 42% 36% A+ D- A- D- C+ F A A+ A+
1.15 59% 25% 47% +5 0 1.13 36% 0.9 .32 17% .47 70% .33 0.95 70% 53% 25% +4 -4 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 19% .15 57% .08
Dec
6		 UNC Greensboro D B F F F 42% 14% 44% B+ F A+ A A+ F B- F C- F+ C- F+ A+ C+ 35% 31% 35% B B- F F F C D- F F
1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18 1.18 59% 47% 24% -3 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36
Dec
11		 Appalachian St. F F A- F F 43% 22% 35% C+ F C D- C- C D- F F C F+ C- B+ D- 46% 17% 38% D D- F D+ F A+ A D+ B+
0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11 1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16
Dec
14		 Buffalo D- F D+ F F 42% 21% 37% D+ F B- A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F C A+ 39% 16% 45% C- A F B D- B+ D- D+ D-
1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37 1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
17		 Presbyterian D+ C- A+ B- B+ 56% 17% 27% B B+ F A+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 63% 17% 20% F A+ C+ F D+ A+ B D+ B-
1.08 57% 71% 36% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .25 23% .50 85% .42 0.77 48% 25% 11% -15 +2 0.76 30% 1.2 .36 28% .28 71% .20
Dec
22		 North Carolina F D- F F F 39% 33% 28% C- F A+ F D F A F+ A- D C F F F 41% 16% 43% C- F F C+ D- B+ F A- F+
0.67 45% 16% 13% -21 -2 0.56 38% 0.4 .15 22% .29 65% .19 1.30 62% 50% 50% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.1 .43 16% .47 63% .30
Dec
31		 Tulane D+ B- F C- D- 43% 24% 33% C D- C+ F D+ A+ C+ F D+ F B+ B- F F 28% 28% 44% A+ D- F D F B+ F A+ F+
1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21 1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33
Jan
7		 Temple D+ D A+ A+ B+ 44% 40% 16% F B- B+ F C- F+ A F C C- A+ A+ F+ A+ 41% 9% 50% F A- D+ F F B- F D- F
1.03 53% 53% 43% +6 -2 1.09 34% 0.8 .28 18% .40 57% .23 1.15 32% 25% 39% -8 +2 0.89 31% 1.5 .49 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
11		 UAB D+ B- F B C- 33% 32% 35% F+ D+ A- D+ B- F+ A+ F A- C+ A- F+ A+ B+ 55% 25% 20% D+ B B+ F D+ D B- B+ B
1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23 1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19
Jan
14		 South Florida C- C F+ D- D 35% 30% 35% D+ D D- A+ C A A F B- B A- A+ F C 40% 11% 49% B C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ D+ D+
0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24 1.11 48% 17% 39% -3 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30
Jan
18		 Charlotte D D C- F+ D- 44% 31% 25% D D- F+ A D+ A+ C- D D+ C B F F F 51% 5% 44% F F B- F D A+ B+ F C
1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20 1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23
Jan
21		 Wichita St. D C F F F 33% 35% 31% D+ F C F D A+ B F+ C D+ F F A+ A 26% 20% 54% B- A- D F F D C- D- D+
0.92 56% 21% 24% -12 -2 0.74 27% 0.8 .20 9% .32 63% .20 1.18 69% 60% 15% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.3 .55 12% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 North Texas C F F A D 33% 30% 38% D- D- A+ A A+ F A+ B A+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 26% 33% A- A+ B+ F C F A- C+ B+
0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37 0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19
Jan
28		 Rice D+ B- F F F 43% 24% 33% B+ F+ C A- B- B+ A A+ A+ F+ F C- F F 21% 28% 51% C+ F C+ F D- C+ F A F
1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38 1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Florida Atlantic B F+ C- B+ D+ 52% 22% 26% C D+ A- B- A- B- A C A C D+ D+ F F+ 40% 19% 42% C- F+ F+ B- D+ A+ A+ F A-
1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16
Feb
7		 Temple C+ C+ D+ F D+ 55% 22% 22% B C- D+ A C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B D- D D+ 29% 35% 37% A+ C F A+ D+ F B- D- C
1.15 59% 36% 27% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.3 .32 9% .47 74% .35 1.27 53% 44% 37% +2 -2 1.02 43% 0.8 .33 6% .34 80% .27
Feb
11		 Texas San Antonio B- D A+ F F 31% 19% 50% D+ F C A+ A+ A B+ A+ A+ D+ B- A+ C- C 39% 18% 43% D+ C- F A C- D- C A+ A-
1.24 53% 60% 22% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.6 .58 11% .32 90% .29 1.01 50% 20% 33% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.8 .30 14% .26 50% .13
Feb
14		 Rice A D+ A+ A+ A 24% 45% 31% F B+ C A+ A+ A- A+ C A+ C- F B A C+ 15% 40% 45% A+ B F+ D+ D- F+ C+ F D-
1.28 58% 50% 47% +11 -4 1.16 32% 1.6 .50 12% .44 73% .32 1.13 88% 32% 28% -2 -4 0.89 40% 1.0 .40 14% .28 88% .24
Feb
18		 Wichita St. C- F A+ F B 35% 48% 17% F C+ B- F D+ A- A F C+ B- D F A+ D+ 38% 28% 34% B C- A+ B A B C B C+
1.01 38% 61% 25% +1 -4 0.97 30% 0.7 .22 12% .36 57% .21 1.04 63% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.9 .27 17% .31 65% .21
Feb
21		 Charlotte F D D- F F 31% 35% 33% F F C- F D- F+ A+ F B+ B+ B- A+ A A+ 44% 13% 42% C- A+ D+ B+ B- F B+ B- B+
0.86 53% 29% 13% -15 -2 0.67 29% 0.8 .24 18% .43 61% .26 1.04 57% 14% 27% -8 +1 0.88 35% 0.8 .28 12% .28 69% .19
Feb
25		 Texas San Antonio B- C+ A+ D B+ 29% 36% 36% F C+ A- A+ A+ F A+ C+ A+ F F D F F 32% 26% 43% B+ F D- F F A+ A- F C
1.21 62% 56% 31% +6 -3 1.09 45% 1.4 .61 19% .48 73% .35 1.20 80% 42% 45% +15 -1 1.30 35% 1.4 .48 25% .20 90% .18
Mar
1		 Memphis B B- A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% D- A+ C+ D- C- C- C B- C+ A- B- A+ B- A+ 32% 40% 28% A+ A+ B+ F D- D D+ A C+
1.14 63% 50% 53% +15 -2 1.29 35% 0.8 .27 20% .34 75% .26 0.93 56% 13% 31% -12 -3 0.72 31% 1.5 .48 16% .33 65% .21
Mar
5		 Tulsa D- F D- F F 25% 32% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ F F B D- F 40% 12% 48% B- F D- D- F F C A+ B
0.99 36% 29% 26% -13 -2 0.70 44% 1.4 .62 26% .54 70% .38 1.40 81% 33% 40% +13 +1 1.31 37% 1.4 .52 9% .33 70% .23
Mar
8		 UAB B- F B- C F 40% 25% 35% C- F+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A B- A D F D D- F 53% 29% 19% C F A+ A- A+ D+ C- C- C-
1.09 38% 40% 33% -8 0 0.85 40% 1.2 .47 16% .33 76% .25 1.18 71% 41% 36% +8 0 1.19 21% 0.9 .18 10% .32 73% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 100.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.7%
Lose Out 23.3%