East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #268
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 #320
Pace 71.3 #115
Improvement +2.7 #60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 F C D+ C+ D+
Defense #171 C- D+ C+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.05 #303 -0.5 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #59 0.71 #237 +2.0 #83
Three Pointers 31% #344 0.84 #347 -7.7 #352
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #341 -6.2 #341
Freethrows 19.8 #73 67% #327 13.3 #136
Second Chance 32.8% #129 0.95 #297 0.31 #199
Turnovers 18.0% #275
Total Offense -5.7 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #213 1.11 #116 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #134 0.80 #251 -0.9 #252
Three Pointers 41% #195 1.15 #333 -2.5 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.0 #245
Freethrows 15.1 #71 76% #308 11.4 #109
Second Chance 28.9% #118 1.22 #345 0.35 #260
Turnovers 17.3% #123
Total Defense -0.2 #171

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #271 -0.4% #129
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.1% #342 4.4% #267
Possession Length 17.3 #163 16.5 #58
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #222 0.22 #328
Improvement +0.7 #137 +2.0 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 3.8% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.6% 6.5% 23.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 11.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 82 - 17
Quad 47 - 69 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 237 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 55% +2  1 - 0 -4 +2 F A+ A- -7 D+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 115 @Richmond L 72 - 87 14% -10  1 - 1 -9 -2 D- D+ C -6 D B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 120 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 14% -12  1 - 2 -19 -7 F D+ C- -13 F B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 229 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 54% -7  1 - 3 -19 -11 D- C+ F -8 F B F
 Tue, Nov 25 11 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  1 - 4 -13 -5 B- C F -7 F C- D
 Thu, Nov 27 141 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 25% -2  1 - 5 -8 -17 F F F +9 A- A- A
 Tue, Dec 2 329 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 77% +5  2 - 5 -2 +3 A D C- -3 D- B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 301 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 69% -2  2 - 6 -15 -2 F A+ F -13 C F C
 Thu, Dec 11 211 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 51% -9  2 - 7 -19 -17 F D C -3 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 193 Buffalo W 73 - 70 47% -8  3 - 7 -2 -4 F B+ A+ +2 A D+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 271 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 62% +10  4 - 7 +12 -1 B D+ F +13 A+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 34 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  4 - 8 -31 -19 F D F -8 F D+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 173 Tulane L 70 - 79 44% -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -13 -1 D- F A+ -13 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 143 @Temple L 67 - 75 17% -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 +0 B C- F -5 A+ F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 114 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 28% -2  4 - 11 0 - 3 -2 -2 D+ B F +0 B- C D
 Wed, Jan 14 83 @South Florida L 71 - 82 8% -11  4 - 12 0 - 4 -1 -1 F C A+ +1 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 170 Charlotte L 70 - 73 43% -7  4 - 13 0 - 5 -7 -3 F C- A+ -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 106 @Wichita St. L 64 - 77 11%
 Sat, Jan 24 132 @North Texas L 59 - 70 16%
 Wed, Jan 28 240 Rice W 72 - 70 56%
 Sun, Feb 1 94 @Florida Atlantic L 67 - 82 8%
 Sat, Feb 7 143 Temple L 70 - 74 35%
 Wed, Feb 11 342 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 240 @Rice L 69 - 73 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 106 Wichita St. L 67 - 74 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 170 @Charlotte L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 342 @Texas San Antonio W 75 - 72 61%
 Sun, Mar 1 88 Memphis L 67 - 76 18%
 Thu, Mar 5 75 Tulsa L 72 - 82 17%
 Sun, Mar 8 114 @UAB L 69 - 81 14%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 14 -6 -6 F C D+ +0 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.6 0.3 7.2 10th
11th 0.5 4.4 8.2 5.6 1.0 0.0 19.7 11th
12th 1.2 9.6 18.6 18.0 8.1 1.5 0.1 57.1 12th
13th 1.0 4.0 4.4 1.8 0.3 11.5 13th
Total 1.0 5.2 14.1 20.9 22.8 17.4 10.5 5.3 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 5.3% 5.3
6-12 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.5
5-13 17.4% 17.4
4-14 22.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.7
3-15 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.9
2-16 14.1% 14.1
1-17 5.2% 5.2
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%