East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#258
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#281
Pace71.8#115
Improvement+2.1#63

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#313
First Shot-4.6#310
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#217
Layup/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#359
Freethrows+2.5#47
Improvement-0.8#242

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot-0.4#182
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#171
Layups/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#192
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement+2.8#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.0
.500 or above 2.1% 7.8% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.6% 18.3% 11.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 27.7% 16.3% 27.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 1.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 33 - 73 - 16
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 211 Georgia Southern W 92-89 54%     1 - 0 -3.3 +2.1 -5.8
  Sat, Nov 8 104 @Richmond L 72-87 12%     1 - 1 -7.6 -0.6 -6.2
  Tue, Nov 18 122 @UNC Wilmington L 60-85 15%     1 - 2 -19.1 -8.6 -11.6
  Fri, Nov 21 240 Charleston Southern L 65-77 59%     1 - 3 -19.6 -11.2 -8.3
  Tue, Nov 25 14 Michigan St. L 56-89 3%     1 - 4 -15.4 -7.6 -6.9
  Thu, Nov 27 115 St. Bonaventure L 58-67 21%     1 - 5 -5.6 -14.0 +8.5
  Tue, Dec 2 346 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-56 82%     2 - 5 -2.9 +1.7 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 292 UNC Greensboro L 78-82 68%     2 - 6 -14.0 -0.2 -13.9
  Thu, Dec 11 229 Appalachian St. L 54-67 57%     2 - 7 -20.2 -16.3 -4.8
  Sun, Dec 14 192 Buffalo W 73-70 50%     3 - 7 -2.1 -3.9 +1.8
  Wed, Dec 17 280 Presbyterian W 74-53 65%     4 - 7 +11.8 +0.4 +11.9
  Mon, Dec 22 22 @North Carolina L 61-85 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 193 Tulane L 72-73 50%    
  Wed, Jan 7 147 @Temple L 70-79 19%    
  Sun, Jan 11 114 UAB L 73-79 30%    
  Wed, Jan 14 86 @South Florida L 70-85 9%    
  Sun, Jan 18 196 Charlotte L 69-70 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 101 @Wichita St. L 64-77 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 150 @North Texas L 60-69 20%    
  Wed, Jan 28 234 Rice W 71-69 58%    
  Sun, Feb 1 117 @Florida Atlantic L 70-82 15%    
  Sat, Feb 7 147 Temple L 73-76 38%    
  Wed, Feb 11 294 Texas San Antonio W 75-70 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 234 @Rice L 68-72 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 101 Wichita St. L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 196 @Charlotte L 66-72 29%    
  Wed, Feb 25 294 @Texas San Antonio L 72-73 46%    
  Sun, Mar 1 74 Memphis L 67-77 19%    
  Thu, Mar 5 81 Tulsa L 71-80 20%    
  Sun, Mar 8 114 @UAB L 70-82 15%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.5 1.9 0.1 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.2 7.1 3.3 0.3 14.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.5 4.6 0.6 0.0 17.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.6 7.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 18.8 12th
13th 0.5 2.4 4.9 6.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 17.4 13th
Total 0.5 2.5 5.9 11.1 14.8 16.2 15.9 12.7 9.0 5.6 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0
14-4 38.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 18.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.2% 11.6% 11.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 2.4% 2.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 3.2
9-9 5.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 5.6
8-10 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-11 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.6
6-12 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-13 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-14 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.7
3-15 11.1% 11.1
2-16 5.9% 5.9
1-17 2.5% 2.5
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%