East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#201
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#203
Pace68.7#168
Improvement-0.3#226

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#197
First Shot-2.7#270
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#48
Layup/Dunks-1.4#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#128
Freethrows+0.8#116
Improvement-0.4#256

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#208
First Shot-2.0#238
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#97
Layups/Dunks-3.6#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
Freethrows-0.7#244
Improvement+0.1#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 6.7% 16.2% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.2% 14.5% 36.9%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 32 - 83 - 15
Quad 410 - 213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 227   Mercer W 77-75 66%     1 - 0 -3.8 +4.9 -8.7
  Nov 12, 2022 328   Presbyterian W 77-57 85%     2 - 0 +7.4 -1.8 +9.2
  Nov 16, 2022 344   Hampton W 82-73 88%     3 - 0 -5.4 -5.9 -0.2
  Nov 21, 2022 124   Indiana St. L 75-79 34%     3 - 1 -1.5 -4.4 +3.3
  Nov 22, 2022 103   Toledo W 86-75 28%     4 - 1 +15.5 +9.0 +6.4
  Nov 23, 2022 272   Texas Arlington W 79-65 66%     5 - 1 +8.2 +11.4 -1.9
  Nov 26, 2022 177   @ Old Dominion L 50-71 34%     5 - 2 -18.5 -19.2 +0.0
  Nov 29, 2022 354   South Carolina St. L 68-73 91%     5 - 3 -21.6 -12.9 -8.9
  Dec 02, 2022 257   Campbell W 79-69 72%     6 - 3 +2.3 +3.2 -0.8
  Dec 06, 2022 154   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-74 31%     6 - 4 -9.6 -1.4 -9.7
  Dec 11, 2022 343   Coppin St. W 84-75 88%     7 - 4 -5.3 +6.2 -11.1
  Dec 17, 2022 225   South Carolina W 64-56 56%     8 - 4 +4.9 +2.0 +4.4
  Dec 21, 2022 302   High Point W 60-49 80%     9 - 4 +0.6 -23.1 +22.7
  Dec 28, 2022 98   Temple L 57-59 36%     9 - 5 0 - 1 +0.1 -13.0 +13.1
  Dec 31, 2022 109   @ Wichita St. W 79-69 22%     10 - 5 1 - 1 +16.3 +17.8 -0.7
  Jan 04, 2023 65   Central Florida L 61-64 24%     10 - 6 1 - 2 +2.7 -1.9 +4.3
  Jan 07, 2023 37   @ Memphis L 59-69 8%     10 - 7 1 - 3 +4.1 -8.6 +13.0
  Jan 11, 2023 59   @ Cincinnati L 55-83 11%     10 - 8 1 - 4 -16.4 -10.2 -7.1
  Jan 15, 2023 131   South Florida L 70-81 45%     10 - 9 1 - 5 -11.5 -0.5 -11.4
  Jan 18, 2023 98   @ Temple L 58-73 19%     10 - 10 1 - 6 -7.5 -7.3 -0.9
  Jan 24, 2023 230   Tulsa W 76-66 67%     11 - 10 2 - 6 +3.8 +9.0 -3.9
  Jan 29, 2023 109   Wichita St. L 72-85 40%     11 - 11 2 - 7 -12.0 -0.6 -11.0
  Feb 01, 2023 131   @ South Florida L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 04, 2023 159   SMU W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 83   @ Tulane L 72-83 15%    
  Feb 15, 2023 59   Cincinnati L 67-75 24%    
  Feb 19, 2023 159   @ SMU L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 21, 2023 230   @ Tulsa L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 25, 2023 2   Houston L 57-75 5%    
  Mar 01, 2023 83   Tulane L 75-80 31%    
  Mar 05, 2023 65   @ Central Florida L 60-73 11%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.6 7.4 2.7 0.2 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 5.5 13.4 4.9 0.2 24.1 9th
10th 1.4 12.1 20.3 7.5 0.5 41.8 10th
11th 5.2 7.8 2.3 0.1 15.3 11th
Total 6.5 20.0 28.2 24.7 14.0 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 5.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.1
6-12 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-13 24.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.6
4-14 28.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 28.1
3-15 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.0
2-16 6.5% 6.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.5%