East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.0 251
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 284
Pace 70.4 132
Improvement +3.7 48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 281 D- C+ C- B- C-
Defense C 204 C- D+ C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 D 52% 306 -0.7 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 74 D+ 35% 270 +1.3 107
Three Pointers 33% 334 F+ 29% 350 -6.8 350
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 252 D- -5.6 344
1st FG Attempt D- 0.90 343
Second Chance C+ 32.5% 124 C- 1.00 211 C+ 0.33 140
Turnovers C- 17.4% 208
Freethrows B 0.34 63 C- 71% 233 B- 0.24 99
Total Offense D+ -4.1 281

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 238 C+ 57% 144 +1.5 124
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 139 C- 39% 221 -0.6 238
Three Pointers 42% 152 D+ 36% 285 -2.0 282
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.5 252 C- -5.6 344
1st FG Attempt 1.04 215 C- -1.0 216
Second Chance C 30.7% 193 D- 1.15 328 D+ 0.35 286
Turnovers C 17.2% 169
Freethrows B 0.26 59 D+ 74% 260 B- 0.19 79
Total Defense C -0.9 204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 159 16.8 95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 196 0.20 291
Improvement +4.0 #20 -0.3 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 32 - 84 - 15
Quad 46 - 710 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 271 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 66% +2  62% 1 - 0 D+ -6 C- -2 D- A B D+ -5 D F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 127 @Richmond L 72 - 87 17% -10  18% 1 - 1 D -10 D- -6 D D C- C- -3 D B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 112 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 14% -12  7% 1 - 2 F -19 F -10 F+ D+ C- F+ -10 F C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 250 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 61% -7  0% 1 - 3 F -20 F -14 F+ B- D D -6 F+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 10 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  0% 1 - 4 D- -13 F+ -9 C+ C F C- -3 D C- D
 Thu, Nov 27 136 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 26% -3  8% 1 - 5 D+ -7 F -19 F F F A +12 A+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 347 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 84% +5  60% 2 - 5 C- -3 C +0 B D+ C- C -1 D- C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 300 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 72% -2  24% 2 - 6 F+ -15 D -5 F A+ F F+ -10 C+ F C
 Thu, Dec 11 160 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 43% -9  0% 2 - 7 F+ -16 F -17 F C- C+ C -1 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 200 Buffalo W 73 - 70 52% -8  21% 3 - 7 C- -3 D- -6 F A- A+ B- +4 A D- B
 Wed, Dec 17 277 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 68% +10  98% 4 - 7 B+ +11 D -4 B+ D F A+ +16 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 26 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  1% 4 - 8 F -30 F -21 F D F D+ -5 F D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 176 Tulane L 70 - 79 46% -1  32% 4 - 9 0 - 1 D- -13 D+ -3 D D A+ F+ -11 D- F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 146 @Temple L 67 - 75 20% -9  0% 4 - 10 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 B- D+ D- C -2 A- F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 117 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 32% -2  26% 4 - 11 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 D+ B F+ C+ +2 B- C- D
 Wed, Jan 14 62 @South Florida L 71 - 82 7% -11  1% 4 - 12 0 - 4 C +1 D+ -3 D C- A B +5 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 170 Charlotte L 70 - 73 44% -7  6% 4 - 13 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -5 D- D+ A+ C -1 F D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 94 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 11% -14  0% 4 - 14 0 - 6 D -9 D -5 F D A+ D+ -5 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 139 @North Texas W 63 - 59 18% +3  86% 5 - 14 1 - 6 B +9 C +0 D A+ F A- +9 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 218 Rice L 77 - 83 54% -7  2% 5 - 15 1 - 7 D- -12 D+ -3 F+ B- B+ D- -9 F D- C+
 Sun, Feb 1 114 @Florida Atlantic W 76 - 75 15% -1  24% 6 - 15 2 - 7 B- +7 B +7 D+ A- B- C +0 D- C A+
 Sat, Feb 7 146 Temple L 73 - 81 39% -5  19% 6 - 16 2 - 8 D -10 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ F -13 C D+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 349 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 72 84% +12  89% 7 - 16 3 - 8 C +0 B- +4 F A+ A D+ -4 C D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 218 @Rice L 70 - 75 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 94 Wichita St. L 67 - 74 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 170 @Charlotte L 68 - 76 25%
 Wed, Feb 25 349 @Texas San Antonio W 77 - 72 66%
 Sun, Mar 1 88 Memphis L 69 - 77 23%
 Thu, Mar 5 70 Tulsa L 72 - 82 17%
 Sun, Mar 8 117 @UAB L 70 - 81 15%
Totals 9 - 21 5 - 13 -5 F -4 A D- C- C- -1 F+ C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D D+ F+ D- 41% 26% 33% C- D- C+ C- C+ C- B C- B- C C+ C- D+ C- 37% 22% 42% C+ C- C D- D+ C B D+ B-
1.03 52% 35% 29% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.0 .33 17% .34 71% .24 1.10 57% 39% 36% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.2 .35 17% .26 74% .25
Nov
4		 Georgia Southern C- B- D- F D- 45% 22% 33% D+ D- A- A- A B A+ F A+ D+ C+ A D- D 55% 11% 35% F+ D F F F B- F A+ D+
1.14 64% 33% 22% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.2 .54 16% .61 63% .39 1.11 53% 33% 37% -2 +2 1.04 35% 1.3 .45 17% .45 60% .27
Nov
8		 Richmond D- C+ A- F D+ 28% 32% 40% D D F A D C- A+ C A+ C- F F A+ D+ 37% 18% 45% F D A+ F B+ C F D F
0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36 1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46
Nov
18		 UNC Wilmington F F+ C F D 15% 43% 43% F F+ C F+ D+ C- C B+ C+ F+ F B+ F F 23% 23% 53% B- F B- C C+ B F D- F
0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19 1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38
Nov
21		 Charleston Southern F C C- F F+ 47% 33% 20% C- F+ D+ A+ B- D B- F D- D C A+ F F 22% 22% 56% A+ F+ A+ B A+ F B F C+
0.92 54% 35% 10% -10 -1 0.80 26% 1.3 .34 14% .40 54% .22 1.10 58% 25% 48% +9 -1 1.18 15% 0.8 .12 13% .21 77% .16
Nov
25		 Michigan St. F+ F B A+ C+ 48% 25% 28% B C+ A+ F C F A+ D+ A+ C- D+ C+ F D- 32% 29% 39% B D B+ F C- D A+ A A+
0.78 26% 40% 55% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.5 .14 33% .54 69% .37 1.24 67% 38% 45% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.3 .47 15% .20 67% .13
Nov
27		 St. Bonaventure F F D C- F 40% 27% 33% D+ F C+ F F F A+ A- A+ A C A- A A 23% 38% 40% A+ A+ A+ F B- B B- F C
0.82 22% 33% 33% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.6 .19 24% .47 84% .39 0.95 58% 35% 29% -4 -3 0.87 25% 1.2 .31 20% .25 86% .21
Dec
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore C C F A+ B 43% 20% 38% C B B- F D+ C- A+ D A C F F A F 22% 42% 36% A+ D- B+ D C+ F+ A A+ A
1.15 59% 25% 47% +5 0 1.13 36% 0.9 .32 17% .47 70% .33 0.95 70% 53% 25% +4 -4 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 19% .15 57% .08
Dec
6		 UNC Greensboro D B F F F 42% 14% 44% B F A+ A+ A+ F B- F C F+ C- F A+ C 35% 31% 35% B C+ F F F C D F F
1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18 1.18 59% 47% 24% -2 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36
Dec
11		 Appalachian St. F F A- F F 43% 22% 35% C F C D C- C+ D- F F C F+ C- B+ D 46% 17% 38% D D F D F A+ A- D B
0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11 1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16
Dec
14		 Buffalo D- F D+ F F 42% 21% 37% C- F B- A A- A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ F C A+ 39% 16% 45% C- A F B- D- B D+ D+ D
1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37 1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
17		 Presbyterian D C- A+ B- B 56% 17% 27% B B+ F A D F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 63% 17% 20% F A+ B- F D+ A+ B+ D B-
1.08 57% 71% 36% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .25 23% .50 85% .42 0.77 48% 25% 11% -15 +2 0.76 30% 1.2 .36 28% .28 71% .20
Dec
22		 North Carolina F D- F F F 39% 33% 28% C F A+ F D F A D- B+ D+ C F F F 41% 16% 43% C- F F+ B- D+ B+ F A- F+
0.67 45% 16% 13% -21 -2 0.56 38% 0.4 .15 22% .29 65% .19 1.30 62% 50% 50% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.1 .43 16% .47 63% .30
Dec
31		 Tulane D+ B- F C- D- 43% 24% 33% C D C+ F D A+ C+ F+ C- F+ A- B- F F 28% 28% 44% A D- F D F B+ F A+ D-
1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21 1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33
Jan
7		 Temple D+ D A+ A+ B+ 44% 40% 16% F B- B F D+ D- A F C+ C A+ A+ F+ A 41% 9% 50% F A- D+ F F B- F D F
1.03 53% 53% 43% +6 -2 1.09 34% 0.8 .28 18% .40 57% .23 1.15 32% 25% 39% -8 +2 0.89 31% 1.5 .49 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
11		 UAB D+ C+ F B C- 33% 32% 35% D- D+ A- D+ B F+ A F B C+ A- D- A+ B 55% 25% 20% D B- A- F C- D B B B
1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23 1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19
Jan
14		 South Florida D+ C F+ D- D 35% 30% 35% D+ D D- A C- A A- F C+ B A- A+ F C 40% 11% 49% B C A+ A+ A+ F C D D+
0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24 1.11 48% 17% 39% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30
Jan
18		 Charlotte D D+ D+ F+ D- 44% 31% 25% D+ D- F+ A D+ A+ D+ D D C B F F F 51% 5% 44% F F B F D+ A+ A- F C+
1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20 1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23
Jan
21		 Wichita St. D C- F F F 33% 35% 31% D F C- F D A+ B F+ C+ D+ F F A+ A- 26% 20% 54% B+ A- D F F D D+ F+ D
0.92 56% 21% 24% -12 -2 0.74 27% 0.8 .20 9% .32 63% .20 1.18 69% 60% 15% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.3 .55 12% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 North Texas C F F A D+ 33% 30% 38% D- D A+ A A+ F A+ B- A+ A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 26% 33% A- A+ B+ F C F A- C+ A-
0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37 0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19
Jan
28		 Rice D+ B- F F F 43% 24% 33% B+ F+ C- A- B- B+ A A+ A+ D- F C- F F 21% 28% 51% C+ F C+ F D- C+ F A F+
1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38 1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Florida Atlantic B F+ C B+ D+ 52% 22% 26% C D+ A- B- A- B- A- C A- C D C F F+ 40% 19% 42% C D- D B C A+ A+ F A-
1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16
Feb
7		 Temple C+ C D+ F D+ 55% 22% 22% B- C- D+ A C+ A+ A+ B- A+ F B- D D D+ 29% 35% 37% A+ C F A D+ F B D B-
1.15 59% 36% 27% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.3 .32 9% .47 74% .35 1.27 53% 44% 37% +2 -2 1.02 43% 0.8 .33 6% .34 80% .27
Feb
11		 Texas San Antonio B- D A+ F F 31% 19% 50% D F C A+ A+ A B A+ A+ D+ B- A+ C- C 39% 18% 43% D+ C F B- D+ D- C A+ B+
1.24 53% 60% 22% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.6 .58 11% .32 90% .29 1.01 50% 20% 33% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.8 .30 14% .26 50% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 1.2 3.8 0.6 5.6 10th
11th 2.5 9.7 3.6 0.1 15.8 11th
12th 8.5 26.7 29.3 10.7 0.5 0.0 75.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 8.6 26.8 31.8 21.5 8.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.4% 0.4
8-10 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-11 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
6-12 21.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.5
5-13 31.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 31.8
4-14 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.7
3-15 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%