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American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#207
Pace67.2#245
Improvement-1.9#308

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#78
First Shot+6.3#33
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#315
Layup/Dunks+0.7#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#157
Freethrows+3.1#31
Improvement-1.4#291

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#308
First Shot-6.1#348
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#52
Layups/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#344
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement-0.5#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.0% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 58.7% 75.1% 51.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.3% 71.5% 59.4%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.7% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.8% 3.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.0% 4.0% 2.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 411 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 349 Delaware St. W 83-65 91%     1 - 0 +2.9 +10.4 -6.5
  Tue, Nov 11 240 La Salle W 90-63 76%     2 - 0 +19.7 +20.0 +1.1
  Sat, Nov 15 148 Boston College L 71-76 59%     2 - 1 -7.3 +1.2 -8.6
  Wed, Nov 19 113 Hofstra W 81-76 49%     3 - 1 +5.3 +9.2 -3.9
  Mon, Nov 24 89 UC San Diego L 76-91 29%     3 - 2 -9.1 +6.5 -16.0
  Tue, Nov 25 261 Princeton W 79-75 70%     4 - 2 -1.4 +8.8 -10.1
  Wed, Nov 26 115 Rhode Island L 75-90 38%     4 - 3 -11.7 +5.2 -17.0
  Mon, Dec 1 36 @Villanova L 56-74 8%     4 - 4 -2.6 +1.3 -7.7
  Sat, Dec 6 172 Saint Joseph's L 69-70 54%     4 - 5 -2.0 +4.8 -6.9
  Sun, Dec 14 363 St. Francis (PA) W 95-67 95%     5 - 5 +9.4 +15.9 -6.2
  Thu, Dec 18 127 @Davidson L 72-77 32%    
  Mon, Dec 22 261 Princeton W 78-69 79%    
  Wed, Dec 31 194 @Charlotte L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 3 287 Texas San Antonio W 81-71 82%    
  Wed, Jan 7 282 East Carolina W 80-70 81%    
  Wed, Jan 14 75 @Memphis L 72-83 17%    
  Sun, Jan 18 117 Florida Atlantic L 79-80 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 207 @Rice W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 287 @Texas San Antonio W 78-74 64%    
  Wed, Jan 28 194 Charlotte W 76-70 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 86 South Florida L 80-83 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 282 @East Carolina W 77-73 63%    
  Wed, Feb 11 205 @Tulane W 78-77 51%    
  Sun, Feb 15 146 North Texas W 70-68 59%    
  Wed, Feb 18 119 UAB L 78-79 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 100 @Wichita St. L 70-78 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 117 @Florida Atlantic L 76-82 30%    
  Sun, Mar 1 207 Rice W 77-71 72%    
  Thu, Mar 5 205 Tulane W 80-74 71%    
  Sun, Mar 8 83 @Tulsa L 74-84 19%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 5.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.8 4.2 0.5 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.1 4.8 0.8 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.4 3.9 5.6 1.3 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.3 2.5 5.3 1.8 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.1 4.0 6.7 10.1 12.8 14.4 14.8 12.8 9.6 6.3 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 71.9% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.0% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 30.3% 30.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 9.5% 9.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.6% 13.2% 13.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.4% 10.0% 10.0% 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.1
13-5 6.3% 10.1% 10.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.6
12-6 9.6% 6.4% 6.4% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.0
11-7 12.8% 3.9% 3.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 12.3
10-8 14.8% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.4
9-9 14.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3
8-10 12.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.7
7-11 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 97.0 0.0%