Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#74
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#109
Pace73.1#83
Improvement+1.3#100

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#132
First Shot-1.4#210
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#34
Layup/Dunks+4.1#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#269
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement-1.8#311

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#32
First Shot+5.2#37
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#112
Layups/Dunks+3.5#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#207
Freethrows-1.1#263
Improvement+3.1#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 23.4% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 12.0
.500 or above 83.4% 84.6% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 94.4% 89.7%
Conference Champion 30.2% 30.8% 21.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round22.9% 23.2% 18.5%
Second Round5.5% 5.6% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 38 - 312 - 13
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 94 San Francisco W 76-70 68%     1 - 0 +8.8 -0.6 +9.1
  Tue, Nov 11 63 @Mississippi L 77-83 35%     1 - 1 +5.4 +13.2 -8.0
  Sun, Nov 16 132 UNLV L 78-92 80%     1 - 2 -15.2 -5.6 -7.9
  Thu, Nov 20 5 Purdue L 71-80 10%     1 - 3 +12.7 +8.7 +3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 61 Wake Forest L 68-69 46%     1 - 4 +7.6 +2.4 +5.2
  Wed, Nov 26 128 Southern Illinois W 74-58 79%     2 - 4 +14.9 +1.6 +13.3
  Wed, Dec 3 242 New Orleans W 86-70 92%     3 - 4 +8.3 +7.6 +0.6
  Sat, Dec 6 27 Baylor W 78-71 34%     4 - 4 +18.8 +6.1 +12.6
  Sat, Dec 13 12 @Louisville L 73-99 11%     4 - 5 -5.1 +6.6 -11.1
  Wed, Dec 17 9 Vanderbilt L 70-77 OT 18%     4 - 6 +10.2 -8.5 +20.0
  Sat, Dec 20 81 @Mississippi St. L 66-71 41%     4 - 7 +4.9 -2.2 +7.1
  Mon, Dec 22 280 Alabama St. W 83-66 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 148 North Texas W 70-60 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 230 @Rice W 76-67 80%    
  Sun, Jan 11 116 @Florida Atlantic W 77-76 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 147 Temple W 81-71 82%    
  Sun, Jan 18 294 Texas San Antonio W 82-64 95%    
  Wed, Jan 21 80 @Tulsa L 75-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 97 @Wichita St. L 70-71 47%    
  Thu, Jan 29 116 Florida Atlantic W 80-73 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 193 Tulane W 80-67 88%    
  Thu, Feb 5 106 @UAB W 76-75 51%    
  Sun, Feb 8 185 Charlotte W 76-64 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 148 @North Texas W 67-63 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 32 @Utah St. L 70-79 21%    
  Thu, Feb 19 79 @South Florida L 78-80 41%    
  Sun, Feb 22 106 UAB W 78-72 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 97 Wichita St. W 73-68 67%    
  Sun, Mar 1 258 @East Carolina W 77-67 81%    
  Thu, Mar 5 79 South Florida W 81-77 63%    
  Sun, Mar 8 193 @Tulane W 77-70 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.4 8.1 9.0 6.1 2.5 0.5 30.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.2 6.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 7.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.9 9.2 12.8 15.4 15.9 14.7 10.7 6.3 2.5 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.9% 2.5    2.4 0.1
16-2 96.0% 6.1    5.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 84.0% 9.0    6.5 2.4 0.2
14-4 54.8% 8.1    3.8 3.4 0.8 0.0
13-5 21.4% 3.4    0.7 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.2% 30.2 19.5 8.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 70.7% 53.7% 17.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 36.8%
17-1 2.5% 53.8% 44.6% 9.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.2 16.7%
16-2 6.3% 43.4% 40.2% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.6 5.4%
15-3 10.7% 34.7% 33.4% 1.2% 11.3 0.0 0.2 2.2 1.3 0.0 7.0 1.9%
14-4 14.7% 30.1% 29.9% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 0.1 10.3 0.4%
13-5 15.9% 25.2% 25.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.9 0.1%
12-6 15.4% 19.9% 19.9% 12.0 0.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.4
11-7 12.8% 14.2% 14.2% 12.3 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 11.0
10-8 9.2% 10.5% 10.5% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3
9-9 5.9% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.5
8-10 3.3% 5.0% 5.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
7-11 1.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.6
6-12 0.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.2% 22.4% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 8.6 10.3 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 76.8 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.7 6.1 18.2 21.2 27.3 12.1 9.1 6.1