Memphis
American Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#71
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#62
Pace76.4#24
Improvement-5.1#348

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#63
First Shot+4.2#67
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#125
Layup/Dunks+3.5#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#229
Freethrows+3.4#18
Improvement-1.1#242

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#106
First Shot+2.7#87
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#208
Layups/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#300
Freethrows+2.2#43
Improvement-4.1#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 19.5% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 8.2% 1.0%
Average Seed 11.1 10.8 11.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 100.0% 91.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 6.0% 0.9%
First Round13.1% 16.1% 10.7%
Second Round3.9% 5.1% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 5
Quad 25 - 28 - 7
Quad 38 - 216 - 9
Quad 46 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 297   Jackson St. W 94-77 94%     1 - 0 +6.8 +3.0 +1.2
  Nov 10, 2023 127   @ Missouri W 70-55 58%     2 - 0 +20.3 -1.6 +21.8
  Nov 17, 2023 321   Alabama St. W 92-75 96%     3 - 0 +4.7 +11.4 -7.9
  Nov 22, 2023 104   Michigan W 71-67 60%     4 - 0 +8.9 +0.5 +8.5
  Nov 23, 2023 101   Arkansas W 84-79 58%     5 - 0 +10.3 +11.4 -1.3
  Nov 24, 2023 29   Villanova L 63-79 32%     5 - 1 -3.8 -2.1 -1.7
  Dec 02, 2023 69   @ Mississippi L 77-80 37%     5 - 2 +7.9 +1.7 +6.3
  Dec 06, 2023 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 85-80 OT 43%     6 - 2 +14.3 +13.4 +0.6
  Dec 10, 2023 58   @ Texas A&M W 81-75 33%     7 - 2 +18.0 +12.3 +5.6
  Dec 16, 2023 26   Clemson W 79-77 39%     8 - 2 +12.2 +5.4 +6.7
  Dec 19, 2023 67   Virginia W 77-54 57%     9 - 2 +28.6 +12.8 +16.2
  Dec 23, 2023 175   Vanderbilt W 77-75 84%     10 - 2 -1.4 -0.6 -0.9
  Dec 30, 2023 217   Austin Peay W 81-70 89%     11 - 2 +5.2 -0.5 +5.2
  Jan 04, 2024 186   @ Tulsa W 78-75 72%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +4.3 +2.7 +1.5
  Jan 07, 2024 43   SMU W 62-59 48%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +10.9 -8.1 +18.9
  Jan 10, 2024 269   Texas San Antonio W 107-101 OT 92%     14 - 2 3 - 0 -2.1 +9.1 -12.2
  Jan 14, 2024 148   @ Wichita St. W 112-86 64%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +29.8 +39.2 -10.3
  Jan 18, 2024 102   South Florida L 73-74 68%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +1.5 +6.3 -4.9
  Jan 21, 2024 120   @ Tulane L 79-81 56%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +3.9 +5.2 -1.2
  Jan 28, 2024 117   @ UAB L 88-97 54%     15 - 5 4 - 3 -2.6 +3.4 -4.6
  Jan 31, 2024 178   Rice L 71-74 85%     15 - 6 4 - 4 -6.7 -5.5 -1.2
  Feb 03, 2024 148   Wichita St. W 65-63 81%     16 - 6 5 - 4 +0.3 -1.0 +1.5
  Feb 08, 2024 206   @ Temple W 84-77 76%     17 - 6 6 - 4 +7.0 +4.7 +1.7
  Feb 11, 2024 120   Tulane W 90-78 75%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +12.5 +6.2 +5.1
  Feb 15, 2024 93   @ North Texas L 66-76 44%     18 - 7 7 - 5 -1.1 +5.6 -7.6
  Feb 18, 2024 43   @ SMU L 79-106 28%     18 - 8 7 - 6 -13.6 +5.1 -16.2
  Feb 21, 2024 112   Charlotte W 76-52 72%     19 - 8 8 - 6 +25.3 +13.1 +15.2
  Feb 25, 2024 33   Florida Atlantic L 80-82 44%    
  Feb 29, 2024 158   @ East Carolina W 74-70 65%    
  Mar 03, 2024 117   UAB W 83-77 74%    
  Mar 09, 2024 33   @ Florida Atlantic L 78-85 23%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 1.4 3rd
4th 1.3 2.8 4.1 4th
5th 0.2 8.3 16.8 1.7 27.1 5th
6th 0.2 10.9 27.8 8.6 0.1 47.5 6th
7th 2.1 11.3 3.6 17.1 7th
8th 2.2 0.6 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 4.6 22.9 39.7 26.7 6.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 6.1% 49.0% 15.5% 33.5% 10.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.0 3.1 39.7%
11-7 26.7% 17.7% 13.0% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.5 3.8 0.4 22.0 5.4%
10-8 39.7% 11.4% 10.6% 0.8% 11.3 0.1 3.1 1.3 0.0 35.2 0.9%
9-9 22.9% 9.7% 9.5% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 20.7 0.2%
8-10 4.6% 8.4% 8.4% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.8% 11.2% 3.7% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.9 9.6 3.0 0.1 85.2 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.1% 49.0% 10.4 0.4 3.6 20.8 23.9 0.4
Lose Out 4.6% 8.4% 12.1 0.7 6.3 1.3