Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.9 #91
Expected Predictive Rating +3.9 #104
Pace 73.9 #55
Improvement -2.0 #272

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #182 C B+ D C- C
Defense #36 B C+ A- C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.20 #124 +1.5 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #132 0.72 #239 +0.3 #163
Three Pointers 38% #248 0.98 #231 -2.4 #265
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #191 -0.6 #194
Freethrows 0.30 #216 71% #219 0.21 #213
Second Chance 36.8% #30 1.12 #60 0.41 #29
Turnovers 19.7% #327
Total Offense -0.7 #182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 1.17 #189 +3.1 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.62 #11 +1.3 #88
Three Pointers 46% #43 0.89 #31 +0.3 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #48 +4.8 #48
Freethrows 0.33 #274 71% #104 0.24 #246
Second Chance 32.3% #254 0.88 #24 0.28 #100
Turnovers 21.0% #20
Total Defense +6.6 #36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #214 -0.8% #100
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #189 -8.6% #41
Possession Length 15.9 #55 17.8 #269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #32 0.19 #254
Improvement -2.6 #316 +0.6 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 14.6% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.8
.500 or above 75.7% 80.9% 53.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 97.9% 88.4%
Conference Champion 6.1% 7.2% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.7% 14.5% 9.9%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 80.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 23 - 53 - 12
Quad 38 - 311 - 14
Quad 46 - 118 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 105 San Francisco W 76 - 70 66% +9  1 - 0 +8 -1 C- A+ F +8 C+ B A
 Tue, Nov 11 60 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 28% -5  1 - 1 +6 +13 A+ F+ A+ -8 F+ C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 129 UNLV L 78 - 92 75% -11  1 - 2 -15 -6 F A- F -7 D- A C
 Thu, Nov 20 8 Purdue L 71 - 80 9% -1  1 - 3 +12 +8 C- A+ C +4 C+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 75 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 43% +5  1 - 4 +7 +2 B+ B- F+ +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 133 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 76% +11  2 - 4 +15 +4 C A+ D +10 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 212 New Orleans W 86 - 70 86% +16  3 - 4 +10 +7 A+ F+ F+ +3 B- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 42 Baylor W 78 - 71 38% +2  4 - 4 +16 +7 D- A+ A +9 A+ A- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 17 @Louisville L 73 - 99 9% -17  4 - 5 -5 +8 D A+ B+ -12 F F B
 Wed, Dec 17 12 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 18% -3  4 - 6 +9 -9 D+ D D- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 32% -4  4 - 7 +6 -1 D- A+ F +6 B- A- A
 Mon, Dec 22 318 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 95% +13  5 - 7 +8 +6 A- C+ F +2 A- F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 150 North Texas W 57 - 48 79% +8  6 - 7 1 - 0 +7 -9 B B- F +16 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 227 @Rice W 76 - 70 74% -1  7 - 7 2 - 0 +5 +7 F A+ F -1 B D+ B
 Sun, Jan 11 110 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 47% -8  7 - 8 2 - 1 -4 +1 B D+ C- -4 C F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 144 Temple W 55 - 53 77% +4  8 - 8 3 - 1 +0 -15 F C D+ +16 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 343 Texas San Antonio W 95 - 69 96% +12  9 - 8 4 - 1 +11 +12 A+ D+ C -2 D+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 67 @Tulsa L 66 - 83 30% -3  9 - 9 4 - 2 -6 -1 F+ B+ F -5 A+ D D
 Sat, Jan 24 98 @Wichita St. L 59 - 74 42% -13  9 - 10 4 - 3 -7 -11 F B+ F +5 C- B+ B
 Thu, Jan 29 110 Florida Atlantic W 92 - 65 69% +12  10 - 10 5 - 3 +28 +11 B+ A+ C +14 A+ B A+
 Sun, Feb 1 173 Tulane L 76 - 78 82% -5  10 - 11 5 - 4 -6 +2 F C+ B- -8 F C+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 121 @UAB W 90 - 80 52% +8  11 - 11 6 - 4 +15 +9 B+ B D- +6 B+ C- A-
 Sun, Feb 8 155 Charlotte W 76 - 67 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 150 @North Texas W 66 - 64 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 32 @Utah St. L 68 - 80 13%
 Thu, Feb 19 70 @South Florida L 77 - 82 31%
 Sun, Feb 22 121 UAB W 79 - 73 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 98 Wichita St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Sun, Mar 1 251 @East Carolina W 76 - 68 77%
 Thu, Mar 5 70 South Florida W 80 - 79 53%
 Sun, Mar 8 173 @Tulane W 75 - 71 64%
Totals 16 - 15 11 - 7 +6 -1 C B+ D +7 B C+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 3.6 1.8 6.1 1st
2nd 1.3 10.3 7.8 1.1 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 8.7 10.9 0.6 20.6 3rd
4th 2.8 11.7 1.6 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.4 7.4 5.2 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 7.2 0.5 10.3 6th
7th 0.3 4.8 2.0 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.2 4.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 0.2 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.2 10.4 20.0 27.3 23.6 11.9 2.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 61.9% 1.8    0.9 0.9 0.0
13-5 29.9% 3.6    0.6 1.7 1.1 0.1
12-6 3.1% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 1.5 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.9% 31.8% 31.8% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.0
13-5 11.9% 22.4% 22.3% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.1 9.2 0.1%
12-6 23.6% 16.4% 16.4% 12.1 0.4 2.7 0.7 0.0 19.7
11-7 27.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5 0.1 1.8 1.4 0.2 23.9
10-8 20.0% 9.7% 9.7% 12.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 18.0
9-9 10.4% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.7
8-10 3.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
7-11 0.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 12.3 86.3 0.0%