Memphis
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#23
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#38
Pace79.9#17
Improvement-2.0#321

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#65
First Shot+2.0#124
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#60
Layup/Dunks+2.2#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#198
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement-1.8#330

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#3
First Shot+10.3#5
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#240
Layups/Dunks+6.4#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#103
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement-0.2#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.9% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 9.3% 10.4% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 25.0% 27.4% 12.3%
Top 6 Seed 42.5% 45.4% 27.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.0% 87.8% 76.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.1% 83.4% 70.5%
Average Seed 6.5 6.3 7.4
.500 or above 99.4% 99.7% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.0% 95.5%
Conference Champion 29.5% 30.9% 22.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.2% 5.0% 5.9%
First Round83.6% 85.4% 73.7%
Second Round56.4% 58.5% 45.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.0% 29.0% 16.7%
Elite Eight12.6% 13.5% 8.0%
Final Four5.5% 6.0% 2.9%
Championship Game2.6% 2.9% 1.0%
National Champion1.3% 1.4% 0.4%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 4
Quad 25 - 210 - 7
Quad 39 - 118 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 89-65 97%     1 - 0 +14.8 +9.3 +5.2
  Nov 13, 2021 337   NC Central W 90-51 99%     2 - 0 +23.6 -1.8 +19.6
  Nov 16, 2021 56   Saint Louis W 90-74 79%     3 - 0 +21.2 +4.1 +14.5
  Nov 19, 2021 126   Western Kentucky W 74-62 90%     4 - 0 +11.6 -7.5 +17.6
  Nov 24, 2021 27   Virginia Tech W 69-61 52%     5 - 0 +21.2 +3.5 +17.7
  Nov 26, 2021 59   Iowa St. L 59-78 72%     5 - 1 -11.2 -10.6 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2021 159   @ Georgia W 80-70 84%    
  Dec 04, 2021 69   @ Mississippi W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 10, 2021 89   Murray St. W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 14, 2021 13   Alabama W 80-79 56%    
  Dec 18, 2021 18   Tennessee L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 21, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 88-59 99.6%   
  Dec 29, 2021 168   @ Tulane W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 01, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 04, 2022 142   Tulsa W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 09, 2022 55   Cincinnati W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 12, 2022 65   @ Central Florida W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 178   @ East Carolina W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 20, 2022 99   SMU W 82-70 86%    
  Jan 23, 2022 142   @ Tulsa W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 27, 2022 178   East Carolina W 82-64 94%    
  Feb 03, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 65   Central Florida W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 09, 2022 168   Tulane W 79-62 93%    
  Feb 12, 2022 7   @ Houston L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 20, 2022 99   @ SMU W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 24, 2022 150   Temple W 81-65 92%    
  Feb 27, 2022 53   Wichita St. W 73-65 78%    
  Mar 03, 2022 225   @ South Florida W 69-55 89%    
  Mar 06, 2022 7   Houston L 67-68 47%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.8 8.0 9.6 5.7 1.6 29.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 9.8 13.4 7.9 2.4 37.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.1 6.1 4.9 1.7 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.0 2.2 0.4 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 3.1 5.0 7.5 12.1 15.8 18.9 15.9 12.0 5.7 1.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 5.7    5.2 0.5
16-2 80.3% 9.6    7.1 2.5 0.0
15-3 50.2% 8.0    4.1 3.6 0.3
14-4 20.2% 3.8    1.4 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.5% 29.5 19.6 8.7 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 60.2% 39.8% 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-1 5.7% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 12.0% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 3.5 1.0 2.5 2.7 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 15.9% 99.0% 36.2% 62.8% 5.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 98.4%
14-4 18.9% 97.5% 25.5% 71.9% 6.8 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.5 96.6%
13-5 15.8% 91.8% 22.2% 69.6% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.3 3.2 2.7 2.1 1.0 0.1 1.3 89.5%
12-6 12.1% 82.8% 15.9% 66.8% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 2.1 79.5%
11-7 7.5% 62.0% 10.2% 51.8% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.9 57.7%
10-8 5.0% 48.2% 7.8% 40.4% 10.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.6 43.8%
9-9 3.1% 27.1% 7.0% 20.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 2.2 21.6%
8-10 1.2% 4.1% 4.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.1%
7-11 0.7% 5.6% 5.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.4% 6.1% 6.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.0% 25.8% 60.2% 6.5 3.6 5.7 6.8 8.9 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.8 8.6 7.6 7.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 14.0 81.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 56.7 43.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 51.6 48.4