Memphis
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#37
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#26
Pace77.0#21
Improvement-0.7#266

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#40
First Shot+6.2#35
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#189
Layup/Dunks+6.8#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#334
Freethrows+2.1#42
Improvement+0.3#128

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#44
First Shot+5.7#31
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks+5.1#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#230
Freethrows-0.2#207
Improvement-1.0#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 9.2% 11.2% 2.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.2% 76.3% 62.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.2% 72.6% 58.1%
Average Seed 8.8 8.6 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 6.9% 8.3% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.8% 13.5% 18.9%
First Round65.9% 69.9% 52.9%
Second Round34.1% 36.8% 25.1%
Sweet Sixteen11.6% 12.7% 8.1%
Elite Eight4.7% 5.1% 3.2%
Final Four1.7% 1.9% 1.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 4
Quad 26 - 48 - 7
Quad 39 - 116 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt W 76-67 61%     1 - 0 +17.6 +10.0 +8.2
  Nov 15, 2022 74   @ Saint Louis L 84-90 56%     1 - 1 +3.8 +5.4 -1.0
  Nov 20, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 62-47 75%     2 - 1 +19.4 -3.9 +23.6
  Nov 24, 2022 47   Seton Hall L 69-70 55%     2 - 2 +9.3 +1.7 +7.7
  Nov 25, 2022 91   Nebraska W 73-61 72%     3 - 2 +17.4 +9.5 +8.6
  Nov 27, 2022 89   Stanford W 56-48 72%     4 - 2 +13.6 -6.4 +21.1
  Nov 30, 2022 289   North Alabama W 87-68 96%     5 - 2 +9.5 +6.1 +3.2
  Dec 03, 2022 96   Mississippi W 68-57 80%     6 - 2 +13.5 +0.9 +13.2
  Dec 06, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 87-71 98%     7 - 2 +3.1 -2.7 +4.3
  Dec 10, 2022 30   Auburn W 82-73 46%     8 - 2 +21.6 +8.9 +11.7
  Dec 13, 2022 4   @ Alabama L 88-91 20%     8 - 3 +17.5 +12.0 +6.0
  Dec 17, 2022 40   Texas A&M W 83-79 62%     9 - 3 +12.3 +7.4 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2022 352   Alabama St. W 83-61 99%     10 - 3 +6.5 -2.0 +6.8
  Dec 29, 2022 131   South Florida W 93-86 87%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +6.5 +5.6 -0.1
  Jan 01, 2023 83   @ Tulane L 89-96 59%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +2.2 +3.8 -0.5
  Jan 07, 2023 201   East Carolina W 69-59 92%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +5.7 -8.0 +13.4
  Jan 11, 2023 65   @ Central Florida L 104-113 2OT 52%     12 - 5 2 - 2 +2.0 +14.7 -10.7
  Jan 15, 2023 98   @ Temple W 61-59 65%     13 - 5 3 - 2 +9.5 -5.1 +14.7
  Jan 19, 2023 109   Wichita St. W 88-78 84%     14 - 5 4 - 2 +11.0 +19.2 -8.1
  Jan 22, 2023 59   @ Cincinnati W 75-68 50%     15 - 5 5 - 2 +18.6 +7.9 +10.6
  Jan 26, 2023 159   SMU W 99-84 89%     16 - 5 6 - 2 +12.8 +11.4 -0.9
  Jan 29, 2023 230   @ Tulsa W 80-68 87%     17 - 5 7 - 2 +11.2 +7.5 +3.9
  Feb 04, 2023 83   Tulane W 87-79 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 131   @ South Florida W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 12, 2023 98   Temple W 77-68 82%    
  Feb 16, 2023 65   Central Florida W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 19, 2023 2   @ Houston L 64-75 15%    
  Feb 23, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 26, 2023 59   Cincinnati W 78-73 70%    
  Mar 02, 2023 159   @ SMU W 79-71 77%    
  Mar 05, 2023 2   Houston L 67-72 32%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.9 1.0 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 11.8 25.3 18.3 3.4 59.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 5.5 10.2 2.5 0.1 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.4 1.4 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.5 2.7 1.2 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.2 13.2 23.5 28.0 20.2 7.3 1.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.0    1.0
15-3 53.6% 3.9    1.2 2.7 0.0
14-4 9.2% 1.9    0.3 1.4 0.2
13-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 2.4 4.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.3% 97.9% 19.6% 78.3% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.4%
14-4 20.2% 91.8% 15.0% 76.7% 7.9 0.1 0.9 2.1 4.5 4.6 4.0 1.9 0.4 1.7 90.3%
13-5 28.0% 81.7% 13.2% 68.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.7 6.8 7.4 3.0 0.0 5.1 78.9%
12-6 23.5% 67.1% 11.5% 55.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 6.8 5.1 0.1 7.7 62.8%
11-7 13.2% 46.3% 9.5% 36.8% 10.5 0.1 0.4 2.1 3.4 0.2 7.1 40.6%
10-8 5.2% 29.6% 8.5% 21.1% 10.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 3.7 23.0%
9-9 1.4% 17.6% 9.1% 8.5% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 9.4%
8-10 0.2% 5.6% 3.7% 1.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9%
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 73.2% 12.9% 60.3% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.6 7.7 9.7 14.2 18.8 13.1 0.5 0.0 26.8 69.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 3.4 3.3 15.9 33.5 33.7 10.6 2.9