IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+10.3	#53
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.1	#32
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.3	#56

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.1	#51

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	0.9%	1.2%	0.2%
Top 4 Seed	3.4%	4.4%	0.8%
Top 6 Seed	7.4%	9.4%	2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	43.9%	49.0%	31.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	15.1%	18.9%	6.9%
Average Seed	9.2	8.9	10.2

.500 or above	88.3%	92.6%	77.4%
.500 or above in Conference	93.4%	95.1%	89.2%
Conference Champion	46.4%	51.1%	34.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.3%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	3.3%	3.7%	2.3%
First Round	42.2%	47.1%	29.8%
Second Round	19.5%	23.0%	10.6%
Sweet Sixteen	6.0%	7.4%	2.5%
Elite Eight	2.1%	2.7%	0.6%
Final Four	0.8%	1.0%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 5
Quad 2	4 - 3	6 - 8
Quad 3	10 - 2	15 - 11
Quad 4	6 - 0	21 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	75	San Francisco	W	78-72	72%
Nov 11, 2025	30	@ Mississippi	L	72-79	27%
Nov 16, 2025	86	UNLV	W	76-69	74%
Nov 20, 2025	2	Purdue	L	68-81	13%
Nov 26, 2025	141	Southern Illinois	W	81-69	86%
Dec 03, 2025	312	New Orleans	W	89-67	97%
Dec 06, 2025	23	Baylor	L	71-73	43%
Dec 13, 2025	11	@ Louisville	L	73-84	19%
Dec 17, 2025	41	Vanderbilt	W	79-78	53%
Dec 20, 2025	33	@ Mississippi St.	L	73-79	29%
Dec 22, 2025	292	Alabama St.	W	85-64	96%
Dec 31, 2025	89	North Texas	W	68-60	74%
Jan 03, 2026	165	@ Rice	W	77-69	75%
Jan 11, 2026	139	@ Florida Atlantic	W	81-75	69%
Jan 14, 2026	132	Temple	W	84-72	84%
Jan 18, 2026	167	Texas San Antonio	W	86-72	88%
Jan 21, 2026	149	@ Tulsa	W	77-70	72%
Jan 24, 2026	122	@ Wichita St.	W	79-74	66%
Jan 29, 2026	139	Florida Atlantic	W	84-72	84%
Feb 01, 2026	116	Tulane	W	80-70	80%
Feb 05, 2026	102	@ UAB	W	80-77	59%
Feb 08, 2026	185	Charlotte	W	79-64	90%
Feb 12, 2026	89	@ North Texas	W	65-63	55%
Feb 14, 2026	54	@ Utah St.	L	75-78	41%
Feb 19, 2026	106	@ South Florida	W	77-74	60%
Feb 22, 2026	102	UAB	W	83-74	76%
Feb 26, 2026	122	Wichita St.	W	82-71	81%
Mar 01, 2026	158	@ East Carolina	W	77-69	73%
Mar 05, 2026	106	South Florida	W	80-71	77%
Mar 08, 2026	116	@ Tulane	W	77-73	63%
Projected Record						20 - 10	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.6	3.0	7.4	11.5	11.7	8.4	3.8		46.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.8	3.3	6.1	5.5	2.5	0.4	0.0			18.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.7	4.2	2.8	0.7	0.0					10.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.7	3.3	1.9	0.3	0.0						7.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	2.6	1.5	0.2	0.0							5.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	1.7	1.4	0.2	0.0								3.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	1.1	1.3	0.2	0.0									2.7	7th
8th							0.1	0.5	0.9	0.3	0.0										1.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.0											1.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0												1.0	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0												0.6	11th
12th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1														0.4	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.2	13th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.7	2.8	4.4	6.3	8.5	10.2	12.2	13.6	14.1	12.1	8.4	3.8			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.8		3.8
17-1	99.9%	8.4		8.2	0.2
16-2	96.6%	11.7		10.4	1.3	0.0
15-3	81.6%	11.5		8.3	2.9	0.2	0.0
14-4	54.4%	7.4		3.8	2.9	0.6	0.0
13-5	24.7%	3.0		0.8	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0
12-6	6.2%	0.6		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	46.4%	46.4		35.5	8.7	1.8	0.4	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.8%		95.0%	69.5%	25.5%	5.1		0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1						0.2		83.5%
17-1	8.4%		85.3%	59.1%	26.2%	7.0		0.0	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.0					1.2		64.1%
16-2	12.1%		74.5%	52.9%	21.6%	8.7			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.1	1.0	1.5	2.1	1.7	0.1	0.0				3.1		45.8%
15-3	14.1%		61.5%	45.4%	16.1%	9.8					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.2	2.4	3.1	0.3	0.0	0.0			5.4		29.5%
14-4	13.6%		46.6%	37.5%	9.1%	10.5						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.6	3.2	0.6	0.0				7.2		14.5%
13-5	12.2%		33.4%	29.4%	3.9%	11.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	2.3	0.8	0.1	0.0			8.1		5.6%
12-6	10.2%		24.2%	22.6%	1.6%	11.4										0.0	0.2	1.3	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.7		2.0%
11-7	8.5%		17.1%	16.5%	0.5%	11.8										0.0	0.0	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0		0.6%
10-8	6.3%		11.4%	11.3%	0.1%	12.2											0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	5.6		0.1%
9-9	4.4%		6.0%	6.0%		13.6											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.1
8-10	2.8%		4.9%	4.9%		14.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.7
7-11	1.7%		2.7%	2.7%		15.9												0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6
6-12	1.0%		0.8%	0.8%		14.0													0.0				0.0	1.0
5-13	0.6%																							0.6
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		43.9%	33.9%	10.0%	9.2		0.3	0.6	1.0	1.5	1.8	2.3	2.8	3.2	4.7	7.9	13.2	3.7	0.6	0.2	0.2	0.1	56.1		15.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.7	66.5		33.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	2.5		50.0	50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.7		32.8	67.2