IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.6	#61
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#165

Pace	75.1	#44
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.0	#73

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.6	#51

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.6%	0.9%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	2.0%	2.6%	0.8%
Top 6 Seed	5.1%	7.0%	1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	34.0%	41.6%	24.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	11.6%	16.1%	6.7%
Average Seed	10.0	9.3	10.4

.500 or above	80.1%	87.6%	67.0%
.500 or above in Conference	88.7%	91.1%	84.5%
Conference Champion	42.1%	47.8%	32.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%

First Four	2.8%	3.0%	2.4%
First Round	34.1%	40.0%	23.8%
Second Round	13.8%	17.0%	8.2%
Sweet Sixteen	4.5%	6.1%	1.6%
Elite Eight	1.7%	2.4%	0.4%
Final Four	0.6%	1.0%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 6
Quad 2	4 - 4	6 - 9
Quad 3	9 - 3	15 - 12
Quad 4	6 - 1	21 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	69	San Francisco	W	77-73	64%
Nov 11, 2025	37	@ Mississippi	L	71-78	24%
Nov 16, 2025	122	UNLV	W	79-70	81%
Nov 20, 2025	2	Purdue	L	68-81	13%
Nov 26, 2025	138	Southern Illinois	W	80-69	83%
Dec 03, 2025	246	New Orleans	W	85-69	92%
Dec 06, 2025	29	Baylor	L	74-76	42%
Dec 13, 2025	8	@ Louisville	L	76-89	13%
Dec 17, 2025	25	Vanderbilt	L	77-80	39%
Dec 20, 2025	31	@ Mississippi St.	L	72-80	26%
Dec 22, 2025	286	Alabama St.	W	83-65	93%
Dec 31, 2025	90	North Texas	W	68-62	69%
Jan 03, 2026	168	@ Rice	W	76-69	71%
Jan 11, 2026	132	@ Florida Atlantic	W	78-74	64%
Jan 14, 2026	132	@ Florida Atlantic	W	78-74	64%
Jan 14, 2026	127	Temple	W	82-72	81%
Jan 18, 2026	169	Texas San Antonio	W	84-71	85%
Jan 21, 2026	141	@ Tulsa	W	76-71	66%
Jan 24, 2026	116	@ Wichita St.	W	77-74	60%
Jan 29, 2026	132	Florida Atlantic	W	81-71	80%
Feb 01, 2026	111	Tulane	W	79-71	76%
Feb 05, 2026	103	@ UAB	W	78-76	54%
Feb 08, 2026	173	Charlotte	W	79-66	85%
Feb 12, 2026	90	@ North Texas	L	65-66	50%
Feb 14, 2026	53	@ Utah St.	L	74-79	35%
Feb 19, 2026	83	@ South Florida	L	77-78	48%
Feb 22, 2026	103	UAB	W	81-73	73%
Feb 26, 2026	116	Wichita St.	W	80-71	76%
Mar 01, 2026	161	@ East Carolina	W	76-70	70%
Mar 05, 2026	83	South Florida	W	80-75	68%
Mar 08, 2026	111	@ Tulane	W	76-74	59%
Projected Record						19 - 12	13 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.4	2.0	6.9	9.2	9.5	7.5	5.0		40.5	1st
2nd												0.5	3.9	5.6	4.8	2.4	0.4				17.5	2nd
3rd											0.3	2.3	4.3	2.6	0.9	0.0					10.5	3rd
4th										0.2	1.9	3.7	2.1	0.4							8.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	3.1	1.3	0.2								5.4	5th
6th									0.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.0								4.6	6th
7th								0.1	1.2	1.5	0.2	0.0									3.0	7th
8th							0.0	0.7	1.7	0.3											2.8	8th
9th						0.1	0.3	0.9	0.9	0.1											2.2	9th
10th					0.0	0.2	0.8	0.7	0.1												1.8	10th
11th					0.0	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0												1.1	11th
12th				0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0														0.4	12th
13th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0															0.2	13th

Total			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.7	2.4	4.2	5.4	7.1	8.1	10.9	10.6	12.6	11.6	10.0	7.5	5.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	5.0		5.0
17-1	100.0%	7.5		7.2	0.3
16-2	95.8%	9.5		8.6	0.9	0.0
15-3	79.1%	9.2		6.8	2.3	0.1
14-4	55.1%	6.9		4.0	2.3	0.7	0.0
13-5	19.1%	2.0		0.4	1.1	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	3.5%	0.4			0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	40.5%	40.5		31.9	7.0	1.2	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	5.0%		87.0%	54.8%	32.2%	6.7		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.3						0.6		71.3%
17-1	7.5%		81.2%	51.7%	29.4%	8.3			0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.0	0.1	0.1				1.4		61.0%
16-2	10.0%		66.4%	46.5%	19.9%	9.8							0.2	0.5	0.7	1.0	1.3	2.4	0.5					3.3		37.1%
15-3	11.6%		50.5%	35.7%	14.8%	10.4							0.0	0.2	0.3	0.8	1.1	2.7	0.7	0.0				5.7		23.0%
14-4	12.6%		35.1%	29.9%	5.1%	10.9							0.0		0.2	0.3	0.7	1.9	1.2	0.1				8.2		7.3%
13-5	10.6%		24.8%	20.8%	4.0%	11.3										0.1	0.2	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.0			7.9		5.0%
12-6	10.9%		18.1%	17.4%	0.7%	11.7											0.0	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0		9.0		0.8%
11-7	8.1%		12.6%	12.1%	0.5%	12.1											0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		7.1		0.5%
10-8	7.1%		10.1%	10.1%		12.8											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	6.4
9-9	5.4%		4.2%	4.2%		12.7													0.1	0.1	0.0			5.1
8-10	4.2%		0.9%	0.9%		14.0															0.0			4.2
7-11	2.4%		3.1%	3.1%		15.0																0.1		2.4
6-12	1.7%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.7
5-13	0.8%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
4-14	0.3%																							0.3
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		34.0%	25.4%	8.7%	9.8		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.8	1.9	2.3	3.5	4.9	10.9	5.1	0.9	0.2	0.3	0.1	66.0		11.6%