Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #76
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 #91
Pace 72.9 #75
Improvement +0.2 #174

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #132 C D A+ D- C
Defense #30 B+ C- B A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.24 #91 +2.5 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #134 0.63 #316 -0.6 #209
Three Pointers 38% #255 1.04 #152 -1.3 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #167 +0.6 #166
Freethrows 15.8 #264 67% #318 10.5 #296
Second Chance 39.5% #14 1.17 #53 0.46 #15
Turnovers 19.4% #326
Total Offense +1.1 #132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.24 #278 +2.7 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.47 #1 +2.6 #26
Three Pointers 46% #50 0.91 #62 -0.2 #193
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #47 +5.0 #46
Freethrows 19.5 #291 70% #85 13.6 #113
Second Chance 31.5% #211 0.87 #22 0.27 #76
Turnovers 20.3% #27
Total Defense +6.5 #30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #211 -1.4% #73
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #153 -8.6% #50
Possession Length 16.3 #90 17.6 #241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #55 0.21 #301
Improvement -2.1 #305 +2.2 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 27.3% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.2% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 89.2% 94.9% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 99.0% 94.8%
Conference Champion 43.1% 56.1% 30.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round23.8% 26.9% 20.6%
Second Round5.3% 6.3% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 39 - 313 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 100 San Francisco W 76-70 70%     8.5   1 - 0 +8.1 +0.3 +7.5
  Tue, Nov 11 72 @Mississippi L 77-83 37%     -5.0   1 - 1 +5.0 +12.5 -7.7
  Sun, Nov 16 143 UNLV L 78-92 82%     -10.6   1 - 2 -16.1 -5.5 -8.8
  Thu, Nov 20 4 Purdue L 71-80 9%     -1.1   1 - 3 +13.6 +9.5 +3.8
  Fri, Nov 21 65 Wake Forest L 68-69 45%     4.6   1 - 4 +7.8 +3.0 +4.8
  Wed, Nov 26 130 Southern Illinois W 74-58 80%     11.3   2 - 4 +14.9 +2.5 +12.3
  Wed, Dec 3 234 New Orleans W 86-70 91%     15.5   3 - 4 +8.9 +7.3 +1.5
  Sat, Dec 6 31 Baylor W 78-71 37%     2.1   4 - 4 +18.0 +7.5 +10.4
  Sat, Dec 13 15 @Louisville L 73-99 12%     -17.1   4 - 5 -5.5 +6.3 -11.3
  Wed, Dec 17 7 Vanderbilt L 70-77 OT 18%     -3.3   4 - 6 +10.5 -8.2 +19.9
  Sat, Dec 20 56 @Mississippi St. L 66-71 32%     -3.9   4 - 7 +7.6 -0.7 +8.2
  Mon, Dec 22 298 Alabama St. W 88-67 95%     13.0   5 - 7 +10.3 +4.3 +5.1
  Wed, Dec 31 134 North Texas W 57-48 80%     8.3   6 - 7 1 - 0 +7.6 -8.4 +16.6
  Sat, Jan 3 242 @Rice W 76-70 81%     -0.6   7 - 7 2 - 0 +4.4 +7.8 -3.0
  Sun, Jan 11 106 @Florida Atlantic W 75-74 50%    
  Wed, Jan 14 142 Temple W 79-69 82%    
  Sun, Jan 18 314 Texas San Antonio W 82-62 97%    
  Wed, Jan 21 81 @Tulsa L 75-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 104 @Wichita St. L 71-72 49%    
  Thu, Jan 29 106 Florida Atlantic W 78-72 71%    
  Sun, Feb 1 178 Tulane W 78-66 86%    
  Thu, Feb 5 112 @UAB W 76-75 53%    
  Sun, Feb 8 168 Charlotte W 76-65 85%    
  Thu, Feb 12 134 @North Texas W 66-63 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 34 @Utah St. L 70-79 20%    
  Thu, Feb 19 88 @South Florida L 78-80 43%    
  Sun, Feb 22 112 UAB W 79-72 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 104 Wichita St. W 74-68 71%    
  Sun, Mar 1 272 @East Carolina W 77-66 83%    
  Thu, Mar 5 88 South Florida W 81-77 64%    
  Sun, Mar 8 178 @Tulane W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 7.1 12.6 11.7 6.8 2.8 0.5 43.1 1st
2nd 0.7 6.1 8.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.4 6.6 2.1 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.1 1.7 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.4 0.2 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.6 0.4 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 7.8 12.0 16.1 17.9 16.4 12.4 6.8 2.8 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8
16-2 99.6% 6.8    6.6 0.2
15-3 93.9% 11.7    10.0 1.6 0.0
14-4 77.1% 12.6    7.6 4.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 39.8% 7.1    2.0 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 9.6% 1.6    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.1% 43.1 29.5 9.7 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 62.9% 47.6% 15.2% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 29.1%
17-1 2.8% 48.1% 40.7% 7.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.4 12.5%
16-2 6.8% 42.9% 40.2% 2.7% 11.1 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.9 4.4%
15-3 12.4% 35.2% 34.6% 0.6% 11.4 0.1 2.6 1.7 0.0 8.1 1.0%
14-4 16.4% 27.9% 27.7% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 1.9 2.5 0.1 11.8 0.3%
13-5 17.9% 23.3% 23.2% 0.0% 11.8 1.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.7 0.0%
12-6 16.1% 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 12.0 0.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.9 0.0%
11-7 12.0% 15.9% 15.9% 12.3 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 10.1
10-8 7.8% 9.9% 9.9% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.1
9-9 4.1% 7.3% 7.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.8
8-10 2.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
7-11 0.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 23.4% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.5 11.2 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 76.0 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.0 14.3 14.3 42.9 19.0 9.5