Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.6 164
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 146
Pace 61.6 346
Improvement -0.6 215

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #114 B C D+ B- B-
Defense C- #260 C C- D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 165 62% 83 +1.9 109
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 310 37% 219 -2.7 304
Three Pointers 47% 60 36% 75 +4.7 38
1st FG Attempt 1.10 66 +4.0 65
Second Chance 34.1% 81 0.92 313 0.31 167
Turnovers 18.8% 295
Freethrows 0.35 61 71% 220 0.25 95
Total Offense +2.2 114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 210 59% 216 +0.1 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 168 38% 192 -0.2 200
Three Pointers 42% 160 33% 153 +0.0 176
1st FG Attempt 1.02 180 -0.1 180
Second Chance 29.9% 153 1.13 316 0.34 245
Turnovers 14.9% 306
Freethrows 0.33 250 70% 73 0.23 224
Total Defense -2.7 260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 70 -0.1 150
Shot Type Accuracy +3.1 76 +0.2 189
Possession Length 18.5 303 18.0 298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 212 0.16 146
Improvement -0.2 #200 -0.4 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 61.2% 64.3% 25.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 96.3% 71.2%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.3% 1.4% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 65 - 15
Quad 411 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 198 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 68% +9  87% 1 - 0 B +11 A+ +16 A- A+ A- D+ -5 C C- F+
 Fri, Nov 7 320 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 87% +10  96% 2 - 0 D -8 F+ -8 B- A- F C +0 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 110 Davidson L 55 - 62 45% -8  1% 2 - 1 D+ -6 F+ -9 F+ D- C+ C+ +1 D+ A B-
 Sun, Nov 16 58 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 12% -8  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 A +11 B- B+ A+ D- -8 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 173 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 39% +2  67% 2 - 3 C +0 B +6 D+ A F+ D -6 D- D- C
 Thu, Nov 27 96 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 28% -8  1% 2 - 4 C- -5 C+ +2 A+ F F D -7 C- D F
 Fri, Nov 28 130 Richmond L 66 - 71 40% -8  0% 2 - 5 C- -3 D -6 C F B+ C+ +2 C C B-
 Tue, Dec 2 286 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 82% +17  98% 3 - 5 B- +7 C- -1 A B F A- +9 A B C+
 Sun, Dec 7 37 Utah St. L 53 - 79 14% -11  24% 3 - 6 F+ -15 F -14 F A+ F C- -3 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 155 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 37% -3  25% 3 - 7 C- -4 D -5 C F D C +0 D- D+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 314 Lafayette W 81 - 67 86% +11  96% 4 - 7 C+ +2 A+ +16 A+ C- B+ F -12 D F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 137 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 54% -2  33% 5 - 7 B +10 A +12 B D- B C- -2 D- A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 139 Temple L 73 - 76 55% -5  8% 5 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- C C- C- -2 F+ B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 90 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 38% -4  23% 6 - 8 1 - 1 B- +7 A+ +24 B A+ A F -17 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 348 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 80% +9  86% 7 - 8 2 - 1 B- +7 C +1 D+ C+ D+ B+ +7 B C F
 Sun, Jan 11 226 @Rice W 74 - 73 50% +5  79% 8 - 8 3 - 1 C +0 C+ +3 A+ F F+ C- -2 B- B+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 64 Tulsa L 74 - 86 28% -8  4% 8 - 9 3 - 2 D+ -7 C +1 B+ F A- D- -8 F+ A B-
 Sun, Jan 18 254 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 57% +7  87% 9 - 9 4 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 A+ C F C- -2 C C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 182 Tulane W 73 - 70 65% +5  71% 10 - 9 5 - 2 C -1 D+ -2 A C+ F C+ +1 C A- D+
 Wed, Jan 28 139 @Temple W 80 - 76 OT 32% -2  26% 11 - 9 6 - 2 B +8 A+ +21 A A+ B- F -12 C+ F D-
 Fri, Jan 30 226 Rice W 80 - 70 72% +6  88% 12 - 9 7 - 2 C+ +3 A +11 A+ D+ D D -6 A+ F D+
 Wed, Feb 4 90 @Wichita St. L 64 - 74 19% -5  8% 12 - 10 7 - 3 C -1 D+ -3 B- F F C+ +1 D- A+ F
 Sun, Feb 8 86 @Memphis L 54 - 77 17% -15  0% 12 - 11 7 - 4 D- -14 F -12 D- C- D C -2 B+ F F
 Sun, Feb 15 348 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 66 92%
 Wed, Feb 18 64 @Tulsa L 71 - 83 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 254 East Carolina W 75 - 67 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 144 North Texas W 66 - 65 55%
 Sun, Mar 1 109 @Florida Atlantic L 71 - 78 25%
 Wed, Mar 4 124 UAB W 75 - 74 51%
 Sun, Mar 8 66 @South Florida L 72 - 84 13%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 -1 C+ +2 B C D+ C- -3 C C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C- B- B- 39% 14% 47% B- B B- D C D+ B C- B- C- C- C C C 38% 21% 42% C C C D C- D C- B- C-
1.12 62% 37% 36% +3 +1 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 19% .35 71% .25 1.13 59% 38% 33% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.1 .34 15% .33 70% .24
Nov
3		 Indiana St. A+ B F A+ B+ 51% 12% 37% A A- A+ C+ A+ A- A+ F+ A+ D+ D+ C- B C 44% 10% 46% C+ C C+ F C- F+ F D+ F
1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33 1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25
Nov
7		 Tennessee Tech F+ C+ F+ A+ B 33% 25% 43% D B- B A- A- F A+ D- A C C+ A+ D C 51% 21% 28% F+ C- D+ F F A+ F A+ D
1.07 62% 30% 47% +8 -1 1.15 37% 1.4 .52 29% .43 70% .30 0.99 55% 25% 36% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.7 .55 26% .51 48% .25
Nov
11		 Davidson F+ D- F D+ F 40% 16% 44% A- F+ A F D- C+ A+ F B C+ B+ F F D 29% 21% 50% B- D+ A+ C+ A B- B- C B-
0.95 50% 14% 30% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.5 .20 17% .42 55% .23 1.07 50% 56% 43% +8 -1 1.17 20% 1.0 .20 19% .25 67% .17
Nov
16		 Virginia Tech A D+ A C B 31% 29% 40% D B- A+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ D- C- A+ D+ A+ 23% 23% 53% B+ A+ D- B- D+ F F F F
1.15 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 43% 0.9 .40 12% .41 63% .26 1.27 64% 0% 36% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.1 .41 9% .60 83% .50
Nov
21		 Appalachian St. B C F F D 49% 9% 42% A D+ A+ C+ A F+ D F+ D- D C+ D- D- F+ 35% 18% 48% C+ D- C F D- C F D+ F
1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15 1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32
Nov
27		 Illinois St. C+ B F+ A+ A+ 36% 25% 39% C+ A+ B- F F F A+ F B+ D B- F C- C- 41% 15% 43% F+ C- D+ D D F F B- F
1.05 63% 27% 53% +10 -1 1.20 29% 0.3 .09 21% .44 61% .27 1.20 58% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.11 30% 1.2 .37 11% .53 68% .36
Nov
28		 Richmond D A+ C+ F C- 33% 11% 56% A C F F+ F B+ A+ D A C+ C C D+ C+ 36% 19% 45% F C D+ B C B- F A+ F
1.00 73% 40% 24% -3 +1 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 14% .42 67% .28 1.08 60% 38% 37% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 17% .62 59% .37
Dec
2		 N.C. A&T C- A+ F A+ A 41% 11% 48% B A B B B F B C- B- A- B C- A+ A+ 34% 24% 41% D+ A A- D B C+ F A+ F
1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25 0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36
Dec
7		 Utah St. F D F F F 20% 20% 60% D+ F A- A+ A+ F A+ F C+ C- F A+ A+ B- 48% 10% 42% D+ C+ A A+ A+ F C F D-
0.82 50% 25% 21% -16 -1 0.68 39% 1.3 .50 29% .44 55% .24 1.22 79% 20% 24% +2 +2 1.10 30% 0.9 .27 9% .32 84% .27
Dec
14		 College of Charleston D A+ C+ F C- 28% 16% 56% B- C D+ F F D C+ A+ B+ C D- F+ B- F+ 40% 26% 34% C+ D- B F D+ C+ A- A+ A+
0.98 79% 38% 25% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 16% .25 86% .21 1.09 70% 46% 29% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.4 .35 18% .29 63% .18
Dec
18		 Lafayette A+ D D A+ A+ 27% 13% 60% B- A+ D- A- C- B+ F A+ F+ F F A+ F+ D- 29% 20% 51% A- D F D F D+ A+ A+ A+
1.37 54% 33% 55% +18 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15 1.13 67% 10% 38% +1 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04
Dec
21		 Illinois-Chicago A C- D+ B+ B- 45% 12% 43% B+ B A F D- B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F D- 42% 19% 38% D+ D- C- A+ A+ C D+ B+ C
1.23 55% 33% 38% +1 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51 1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24
Dec
30		 Temple D+ B- F F D 51% 15% 34% B+ C- C- B- C C- A+ A+ A+ C- D+ B F F+ 54% 19% 27% F+ F+ A+ F B- C+ D A+ B-
1.08 63% 29% 25% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.1 .31 16% .49 86% .42 1.12 62% 33% 46% +6 +1 1.17 18% 1.4 .25 15% .41 63% .26
Jan
3		 Wichita St. A+ D- A+ B B 39% 16% 45% A- B A+ A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ F F+ A- D+ D- 42% 18% 40% C- D- F F F C D+ F F
1.39 50% 56% 36% +1 +1 1.05 45% 1.4 .63 12% .58 76% .44 1.34 65% 30% 36% +3 +1 1.09 56% 1.3 .73 15% .35 82% .28
Jan
7		 Texas San Antonio C A- D F D- 39% 6% 55% B D+ B D+ C+ D+ C+ D- C- B+ A+ F B- B+ 37% 12% 52% D- B A+ F C F B A+ A-
1.15 68% 33% 26% -3 +2 1.00 42% 1.0 .42 17% .28 67% .19 0.90 32% 50% 30% -12 +1 0.81 20% 1.3 .25 12% .21 58% .12
Jan
11		 Rice C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 31% 21% 49% B- A+ D- F F F+ A+ F A C- D B- C+ C 18% 41% 41% A+ B- F+ A+ B+ D F F F
1.15 83% 38% 47% +18 -1 1.36 27% 0.6 .17 20% .52 59% .31 1.13 63% 33% 33% -1 -4 0.91 43% 0.6 .26 15% .55 80% .44
Jan
14		 Tulsa C C+ A+ C+ B+ 46% 14% 40% B+ B+ F F F A- C+ A+ B+ D- C+ F F F+ 56% 8% 35% D- F+ F A+ A B- D- C- D-
1.11 61% 57% 35% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.4 .07 12% .29 88% .26 1.29 56% 50% 53% +10 +3 1.27 39% 0.7 .29 16% .39 82% .32
Jan
18		 East Carolina C+ C- A+ A+ A 51% 5% 44% A+ A+ C C C F C A+ B C- C+ C B C- 44% 31% 25% B- C A+ F C+ F B+ B B+
1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23 1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20
Jan
23		 Tulane D+ A+ F C A- 45% 9% 45% A A B- C C+ F B- B- B C+ D F A+ C 36% 23% 40% B- C A+ F A- D+ D D- F+
1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26 1.03 65% 55% 21% -1 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34
Jan
28		 Temple A+ A F A+ A 39% 14% 48% B- A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D A+ F F F A+ C 27% 24% 49% A- C+ F F F D- F F F
1.38 71% 17% 43% +8 +1 1.20 52% 1.1 .55 14% .56 68% .38 1.31 73% 50% 25% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.2 .44 10% .56 93% .52
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Rice A C+ A A+ A+ 28% 33% 38% D A+ B F D+ D A+ C+ A+ D B B- A+ A+ 8% 38% 54% A+ A+ F F F D+ F D+ F
1.31 64% 46% 53% +16 -2 1.28 38% 0.7 .28 18% .64 75% .48 1.15 50% 33% 23% -11 -4 0.71 54% 1.3 .71 16% .41 71% .29
Feb
4		 Wichita St. D+ D+ B+ B+ B 35% 33% 33% D+ B- C F F F C C+ C C+ D F C F+ 43% 20% 37% C D- A+ B+ A+ F F A+ C+
0.96 53% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 28% 0.4 .11 23% .27 71% .19 1.11 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 9% .40 50% .20
Feb
8		 Memphis F D+ A+ F D- 22% 22% 56% D D- F A+ C- D F F F C C- A- A- B+ 34% 32% 34% A B+ B F F F C- C- C-
0.78 55% 55% 18% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.3 .27 23% .17 56% .09 1.11 61% 29% 28% -5 -2 0.89 33% 1.8 .61 14% .30 72% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 1.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.4 5.5 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 12.7 2.1 16.8 4th
5th 0.3 9.8 8.5 0.2 18.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 14.4 2.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.3 9.0 6.3 0.1 15.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 7.5 0.7 10.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 0.5 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 5.3 19.8 33.2 27.8 11.3 2.1 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 46.9% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 2.1% 4.2% 4.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-6 11.3% 2.5% 2.5% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.0
11-7 27.8% 1.6% 1.6% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 27.4
10-8 33.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 32.8
9-9 19.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.7
8-10 5.3% 5.3
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 13.6 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%