Charlotte
Conference USA
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#110
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#130
Pace57.6#359
Improvement-0.9#286

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#109
First Shot+3.8#68
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#289
Layup/Dunks+4.4#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#100
Freethrows-2.1#322
Improvement+0.0#197

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#134
First Shot-0.5#190
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#41
Layups/Dunks+3.2#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#326
Freethrows+1.4#80
Improvement-0.9#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 7.3% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 97.5% 98.6% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 54.6% 59.9% 30.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round6.9% 7.2% 5.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 345   Coppin St. W 82-59 95%     1 - 0 +8.3 +0.4 +7.8
  Nov 14, 2022 292   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-47 89%     2 - 0 +23.3 +8.1 +16.1
  Nov 17, 2022 36   Boise St. W 54-42 22%     3 - 0 +23.7 -3.4 +28.5
  Nov 18, 2022 235   Tulsa W 68-65 76%     4 - 0 -0.7 +4.7 -4.9
  Nov 20, 2022 143   Massachusetts L 54-60 58%     4 - 1 -4.4 -9.4 +4.1
  Nov 23, 2022 222   @ Detroit Mercy L 49-70 64%     4 - 2 -21.2 -19.1 -6.3
  Nov 26, 2022 330   Presbyterian W 69-42 93%     5 - 2 +14.3 +5.6 +14.8
  Nov 29, 2022 123   @ Davidson W 68-66 OT 43%     6 - 2 +7.4 +2.6 +4.9
  Dec 02, 2022 179   Appalachian St. W 71-62 74%     7 - 2 +6.0 +9.1 -1.8
  Dec 10, 2022 222   Detroit Mercy W 82-80 OT 81%     8 - 2 -3.6 +2.5 -6.1
  Dec 17, 2022 351   @ Monmouth W 80-46 89%     9 - 2 +24.0 +16.5 +12.1
  Dec 22, 2022 71   @ UAB L 68-76 25%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +2.5 +0.2 +2.3
  Dec 29, 2022 121   Middle Tennessee W 82-67 64%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +14.9 +18.9 -2.4
  Dec 31, 2022 137   Louisiana Tech W 68-66 67%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +1.0 -0.8 +1.9
  Jan 05, 2023 226   @ Florida International L 60-62 65%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -2.3 -5.3 +2.7
  Jan 07, 2023 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-71 20%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +8.6 +13.0 -5.2
  Jan 14, 2023 312   Texas San Antonio W 72-54 91%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +7.1 -4.4 +12.4
  Jan 16, 2023 175   UTEP L 58-60 73%     12 - 6 3 - 4 -4.9 -0.3 -4.9
  Jan 19, 2023 121   @ Middle Tennessee L 58-62 43%     12 - 7 3 - 5 +1.4 -6.8 +7.9
  Jan 21, 2023 163   @ Western Kentucky W 75-71 52%     13 - 7 4 - 5 +7.0 +14.1 -6.5
  Jan 26, 2023 170   @ Rice L 63-65 53%     13 - 8 4 - 6 +0.8 -2.8 +3.3
  Feb 02, 2023 226   Florida International W 71-62 82%    
  Feb 04, 2023 52   Florida Atlantic L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 09, 2023 175   @ UTEP W 60-59 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 80   @ North Texas L 52-58 29%    
  Feb 16, 2023 163   Western Kentucky W 68-62 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 137   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 23, 2023 80   North Texas L 55-56 50%    
  Feb 25, 2023 170   Rice W 72-66 73%    
  Mar 02, 2023 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 71-62 79%    
  Mar 04, 2023 71   UAB L 67-69 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.9 5.4 1.5 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.3 6.5 10.4 2.9 0.1 20.2 4th
5th 0.0 3.9 10.9 3.6 0.1 18.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 9.7 5.2 0.3 16.3 6th
7th 0.3 5.6 6.6 0.5 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.1 1.0 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.7 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.7 14.6 21.6 23.5 18.2 9.4 2.9 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.5% 22.0% 14.1% 7.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 9.2%
13-7 2.9% 14.6% 14.6% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5
12-8 9.4% 10.4% 10.4% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 8.4
11-9 18.2% 8.9% 8.9% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 16.6
10-10 23.5% 7.2% 7.2% 13.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 21.8
9-11 21.6% 5.4% 5.4% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 20.4
8-12 14.6% 4.6% 4.6% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 13.9
7-13 6.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.5
6-14 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 93.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 22.0% 11.0 0.4 3.1 14.5 4.0