Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #343
Expected Predictive Rating -13.2 #344
Pace 71.6 #99
Improvement -0.4 #208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #333 D- D+ C- D C
Defense #323 D+ D- D+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 0.96 #357 -5.1 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.74 #191 -0.4 #199
Three Pointers 44% #120 0.87 #337 -1.5 #239
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #354 -7.0 #354
Freethrows 0.26 #313 72% #206 0.19 #321
Second Chance 29.3% #216 0.89 #338 0.26 #285
Turnovers 17.8% #230
Total Offense -6.4 #333

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #183 1.19 #215 -0.6 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #340 0.76 #179 +2.2 #31
Three Pointers 47% #37 1.08 #271 -4.3 #336
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #270 -2.7 #272
Freethrows 0.27 #71 70% #86 0.19 #66
Second Chance 36.9% #355 1.07 #256 0.40 #340
Turnovers 15.6% #258
Total Defense -5.4 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #210 1.5% #311
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.5% #355 3.6% #249
Possession Length 16.8 #120 16.9 #130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #138 0.23 #341
Improvement +2.7 #58 -3.1 #328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 98.6% 96.2% 99.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 18.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 90 - 16
Quad 43 - 103 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 245 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 35% -3  0 - 1 -25 -15 F F B+ -9 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 254 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 18% -10  0 - 2 -13 -3 F C B -10 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 290 @Denver W 84 - 79 24% +4  1 - 2 +1 +10 A- D D -9 D- A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 268 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 29% -7  1 - 3 -17 -18 F D C -1 A+ F B+
 Tue, Nov 25 267 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 29% -1  2 - 3 +7 -4 F D+ A+ +10 A+ D C
 Sun, Nov 30 201 South Alabama L 58 - 82 28% -14  2 - 4 -30 -17 F F+ B+ -13 D F B-
 Sun, Dec 7 20 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1% -27  2 - 5 -22 -17 D- D- F -1 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Colorado L 64 - 88 3% -10  2 - 6 -13 -8 D- C- F -5 F+ A- C+
 Wed, Dec 17 46 @USC L 70 - 97 2% -10  2 - 7 -12 +2 F+ A+ F -13 F F+ D+
 Mon, Dec 22 133 Seattle L 68 - 71 16% -4  2 - 8 -4 -3 B D- C -1 A- D+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 109 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 5% -27  2 - 9 0 - 1 -33 -8 F D C- -21 F F+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 143 @Temple L 57 - 76 8% -9  2 - 10 0 - 2 -15 -12 F D+ F -4 B+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 156 Charlotte L 58 - 74 21% -9  2 - 11 0 - 3 -19 -14 F D B -6 B+ F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 173 Tulane L 52 - 85 23% -19  2 - 12 0 - 4 -37 -22 F F F -15 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 14 226 Rice L 73 - 89 31% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 -23 +5 D+ B- B- -30 F F+ F+
 Sun, Jan 18 97 @Memphis L 69 - 95 4% -12  2 - 14 0 - 6 -18 +2 C+ C- D -19 F B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 151 @North Texas L 62 - 81 8% -14  2 - 15 0 - 7 -15 -2 D+ F C+ -14 F+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 143 Temple L 64 - 70 18% -0  2 - 16 0 - 8 -8 -4 D C+ D+ -5 C C C
 Wed, Jan 28 119 UAB L 73 - 83 14% -1  2 - 17 0 - 9 -10 -1 F B A -9 D- C+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 70 @South Florida L 88 - 109 3% -6  2 - 18 0 - 10 -10 +18 A+ A C+ -28 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 151 North Texas L 63 - 72 19%
 Wed, Feb 11 247 @East Carolina L 69 - 79 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 156 @Charlotte L 66 - 81 8%
 Wed, Feb 18 109 Florida Atlantic L 72 - 84 11%
 Sun, Feb 22 69 @Tulsa L 69 - 92 1%
 Wed, Feb 25 247 East Carolina L 72 - 76 35%
 Sun, Mar 1 98 Wichita St. L 67 - 81 9%
 Sun, Mar 8 226 @Rice L 69 - 80 16%
Totals 3 - 25 1 - 17 -12 -6 D- D+ C- -5 D+ D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.4 2.2 1.1 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 29.2 37.8 21.7 6.6 0.8 96.0 13th
Total 29.2 37.8 22.1 8.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 8.8% 8.8
2-16 22.1% 22.1
1-17 37.8% 37.8
0-18 29.2% 29.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 23.3%