Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#298
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#281
Pace74.0#75
Improvement+0.6#130

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#245
First Shot-2.8#266
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks+0.2#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#178
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#313
First Shot-3.5#280
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#270
Layups/Dunks-3.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#289
Freethrows+1.1#122
Improvement+0.7#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.6 15.7
.500 or above 6.5% 18.0% 5.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 11.9% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.1% 34.8% 47.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 47 - 59 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma L 44-96 3%     0 - 1 -37.3 -22.8 -12.2
  Nov 16, 2021 324   Denver W 78-64 70%     1 - 1 +1.1 -2.3 +3.2
  Nov 17, 2021 338   IUPUI W 60-57 77%     2 - 1 -12.2 -5.4 -6.3
  Nov 21, 2021 317   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 58-77 66%     2 - 2 -30.8 -21.1 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2021 319   Lamar W 79-73 67%     3 - 2 -5.9 -1.0 -4.9
  Dec 02, 2021 123   @ Grand Canyon L 63-76 11%    
  Dec 11, 2021 222   Sam Houston St. L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 16, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-78 58%    
  Dec 21, 2021 243   @ Illinois St. L 75-81 28%    
  Dec 30, 2021 183   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 01, 2022 50   @ UAB L 65-84 4%    
  Jan 06, 2022 245   Southern Miss W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 109   Louisiana Tech L 73-82 22%    
  Jan 13, 2022 233   @ Old Dominion L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 197   @ Charlotte L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 20, 2022 159   @ UTEP L 65-76 17%    
  Jan 23, 2022 159   UTEP L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 27, 2022 224   Florida International L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 220   Florida Atlantic L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 03, 2022 168   @ Rice L 75-85 18%    
  Feb 05, 2022 111   @ North Texas L 58-73 10%    
  Feb 13, 2022 126   Western Kentucky L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 17, 2022 245   @ Southern Miss L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 19, 2022 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 70-85 10%    
  Feb 24, 2022 50   UAB L 68-81 12%    
  Mar 03, 2022 111   North Texas L 61-70 23%    
  Mar 05, 2022 168   Rice L 78-82 35%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.8 1.2 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.9 2.5 0.2 13.8 12th
13th 0.3 2.0 5.9 7.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 19.6 13th
14th 2.7 7.2 10.6 8.8 3.7 0.5 0.0 33.5 14th
Total 2.7 7.5 12.6 15.8 15.8 14.1 11.5 8.2 5.5 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 46.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 6.7% 6.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 3.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.2
8-10 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.5
7-11 8.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.2
6-12 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
4-14 15.8% 15.8
3-15 15.8% 15.8
2-16 12.6% 12.6
1-17 7.5% 7.5
0-18 2.7% 2.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%