Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.3 182
Results Rating +2.1 128
Consistency 0.17 289
Pace 67.0 226
Improvement +2.3 93

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 201 C- D B- A C+
Defense C 171 C C- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 C 58% 172 -0.9 220
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 256 D+ 35% 264 -1.6 264
Three Pointers 45% 86 D+ 32% 281 +0.7 156
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 161 D+ -2.0 251
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 228
Second Chance F+ 22.1% 349 B 1.14 48 D 0.25 313
Opponents' Steals B- 8.3% 72
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 112
Turnovers B- 15.0% 79
Freethrows A- 0.37 15 B 76% 45 A 0.28 9
Total Offense C- -1.2 201

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 254 C+ 10.0% 124
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 48 C+ 4.6% 154
Three Pointers B- 88% 99 B- 0.6% 103
Total C+ 58% 127 B- 4.8% 86

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 B- 55% 106 -1.7 119
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 215 C 38% 154 -0.1 178
Three Pointers 43% 103 D+ 36% 252 +2.2 290
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 179 C -0.1 176
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 176
Second Chance D 33.6% 307 C+ 0.99 117 C- 0.33 238
Turnovers from Steals B 11.6% 46
Other Turnovers D 6.1% 331
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 125
Freethrows C- 0.32 228 B- 70% 69 C 0.22 202
Total Defense C -0.1 171

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 270 B 15.6% 42
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 36% 324 A- 8.9% 27
Three Pointers D+ 87% 293 C+ 1.1% 122
Total D 62% 321 B+ 8.0% 33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 120 18.2 310
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 291 0.16 156
Consistency 0.12 152 0.12 142
Improvement -2.7 311 +5.0 14

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 211 181 152
Results Rating Rank 195 139 116
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 10 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 74% 100% 63%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 29.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 35 - 77 - 13
Quad 410 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 195 Samford W 85 - 72 64% +6  76% 1 - 0 B- +8 A +12 A+ F C+ C- -3 C F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 236 Texas St. W 79 - 71 72% -6  13% 2 - 0 C +1 B- +5 C F B- D+ -4 C F D
 Tue, Nov 11 297 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 64% +3  73% 3 - 0 C -1 D+ -4 F+ C B B- +3 B F F
 Fri, Nov 14 194 New Orleans L 63 - 85 64% -11  0% 3 - 1 F -27 F -12 F F A+ F -16 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 33 Utah St. L 75 - 96 8% -6  30% 3 - 2 D+ -7 B +6 A D+ B F -13 F C- C
 Sun, Nov 23 136 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 40% +1  54% 4 - 2 C+ +4 A +11 B- A+ A D- -7 C D+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 253 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 74% +7  89% 5 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +4 B F B+ C -1 F A- C
 Tue, Dec 2 300 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 82% +0  48% 6 - 2 D -9 D+ -3 F D A+ D -6 C- F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 77 Akron L 71 - 88 29% -8  11% 6 - 3 D- -12 D -6 F F+ A+ D- -7 D F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 132 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 39% -16  8% 6 - 4 F -24 F -13 F+ F F+ F+ -9 D- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 216 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 68% +6  93% 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -2 F C+ A+ B +5 A+ B B+
 Sat, Dec 20 159 Portland St. W 63 - 61 57% +3  79% 8 - 4 C -1 D -5 F D F B +4 A- D C+
 Wed, Dec 31 248 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 52% +1  53% 9 - 4 1 - 0 B- +7 B+ +9 B- A- C- C -1 C- B F
 Sun, Jan 4 120 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 46% -1  28% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 D -5 D- B- C+ A- +8 A- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 335 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 76% +19  92% 11 - 4 3 - 0 A+ +24 B +7 B- C C+ A+ +18 A B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 112 UAB L 69 - 82 44% -4  13% 11 - 5 3 - 1 D- -13 D -5 F+ B B D- -8 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 18 141 North Texas L 63 - 71 52% -6  6% 11 - 6 3 - 2 D -10 D- -7 F D- A+ C- -3 D+ B A
 Wed, Jan 21 120 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 25% -6  5% 11 - 7 3 - 3 C +1 C +1 D C+ D+ C +0 F+ B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 23 171 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 37% -5  19% 11 - 8 3 - 4 C -1 D -5 D+ F B- B +4 D D A+
 Wed, Jan 28 54 South Florida L 83 - 97 22% -11  6% 11 - 9 3 - 5 D+ -7 B- +5 A+ F A F -11 C+ F D
 Sun, Feb 1 108 @Memphis W 78 - 76 22% +5  88% 12 - 9 4 - 5 B +9 A- +10 A+ D- B- C -1 A B- D-
 Sun, Feb 8 92 Wichita St. L 61 - 75 34% -6  12% 12 - 10 4 - 6 D -11 F -14 F+ F D- B +4 D A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 157 Temple W 77 - 66 57% +6  69% 13 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 C +1 C+ A F+ A- +7 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 15 112 @UAB W 55 - 54 23% +5  78% 14 - 10 6 - 6 B- +7 F+ -10 D- F C+ A+ +17 A A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 141 @North Texas L 64 - 70 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 141 @North Texas W 77 - 71 30% -3  20% 15 - 10 7 - 6 B +10 A +13 B- B A+ C- -2 A- F C+
 Sun, Feb 22 235 Rice W 81 - 75 72% +5  72% 16 - 10 8 - 6 C -1 C+ +2 B+ C+ C D+ -3 D A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 25 65 Tulsa L 56 - 90 25% -17  3% 16 - 11 8 - 7 F -28 F -17 F D F+ F -13 D F+ D+
 Sun, Mar 1 54 @South Florida L 70 - 84 9%
 Thu, Mar 5 157 @Temple L 70 - 74 34%
 Sun, Mar 8 108 Memphis L 72 - 74 42%
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 10 -1 C- -1 A D+ C+ C +0 D+ B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ D+ D+ 37% 31% 45% C+ C- F+ B D B- A- B A C B- C D+ C 37% 19% 43% C C D C+ C- C+ C- B- C
1.07 58% 35% 32% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.1 .25 15% .37 76% .28 1.09 55% 38% 36% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.0 .33 18% .32 70% .26
Nov
3		 Samford A A- A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% C- A+ F D- F C+ F+ A+ C C- B A- F D+ 25% 27% 48% A C F D+ F B+ B A+ A-
1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21 1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18
Nov
8		 Texas St. B- C+ F A+ C 41% 14% 45% C+ C F F F B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A B+ F C+ 46% 25% 29% D- C C F F D B F C+
1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54 1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20
Nov
11		 Louisiana D+ A+ F F F 54% 17% 29% B- F+ F A+ C B A+ B A+ B- F B- A B 13% 31% 56% B- B D F F F F A+ D
1.03 73% 0% 17% -6 +2 0.93 19% 1.8 .35 16% .50 78% .39 0.97 67% 36% 28% -5 -3 0.87 31% 1.1 .33 13% .38 52% .20
Nov
14		 New Orleans F A A F F 36% 13% 51% C+ F F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+ F F F 29% 17% 55% C- F D+ F F B- F B F
0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40 1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39
Nov
21		 Utah St. B F F+ A+ A 20% 22% 57% D A F A+ D+ B B- B- B- F F F F F 34% 24% 42% A+ F C C- C- C C+ B+ B-
1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25 1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20
Nov
23		 Boston College A A D- F C+ 48% 24% 28% B- B- D- A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ D- A- D+ D C 33% 24% 43% C C B F D+ D F F F
1.18 69% 31% 20% -2 0 0.98 21% 2.1 .45 10% .51 72% .37 1.15 47% 43% 36% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.3 .34 13% .52 78% .41
Nov
28		 Nicholls St. C+ B+ B B+ B 42% 15% 44% C+ B F F F B+ A F B C A- F F F 40% 19% 42% C F C+ A+ A- C F A+ C-
1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30 1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19
Dec
2		 Grambling St. D+ D- F C- F 38% 22% 40% D- F C- D- D A+ B B B+ D F F+ A+ C- 26% 17% 57% C+ C- D- F F B+ F B- F
1.05 53% 20% 33% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 11% .38 76% .29 1.02 73% 43% 25% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.3 .43 24% .43 70% .30
Dec
6		 Akron D C A+ F F+ 25% 19% 56% D F F C F+ A+ A- C B+ D- B- F F D- 32% 12% 56% C D F C+ F A- D C D+
1.00 57% 55% 22% -7 -1 0.86 22% 1.0 .22 11% .35 73% .25 1.24 56% 50% 43% +8 +1 1.20 42% 1.2 .52 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 UC San Diego F C+ D+ F F+ 42% 25% 33% C- F+ F F+ F F+ A D+ B+ F+ D+ A+ F D 53% 5% 42% F D- F A+ D+ C- B- C B-
0.86 58% 36% 16% -10 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24 1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17
Dec
17		 Louisiana Tech C- C A+ F F 28% 13% 59% C F D+ A C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B A D A+ A+ 51% 16% 33% F A+ F A+ B B+ F F F
1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46 0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31
Dec
20		 Portland St. D F A+ F F 50% 18% 32% B F A- F D F A+ A A+ B A+ F A+ A 40% 21% 38% B A- C- D D C+ C A- B-
0.96 45% 50% 14% -14 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50 0.93 42% 60% 22% -9 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19
Dec
31		 East Carolina B+ D- D A+ B 28% 28% 44% D- B- A- B A- C- A+ F A+ C D A+ C- C- 43% 24% 33% D+ C- D+ A+ B F B- A B
1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33 1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21
Jan
4		 Florida Atlantic D D+ F C+ D- 39% 19% 43% C- D- D A+ B- C+ D- A C- A- B+ F A+ A- 28% 26% 46% A A- F B- D- A+ C A+ B
0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20 0.95 50% 62% 22% -5 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17
Jan
10		 Texas San Antonio B D F A B- 22% 12% 66% D+ B- F A+ C C+ F A+ F A+ C+ A+ B+ A 33% 27% 40% B+ A B+ B+ B+ A+ F A+ D
1.24 54% 29% 41% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.4 .39 15% .12 86% .10 0.76 53% 8% 28% -13 -1 0.73 26% 0.8 .21 23% .36 58% .21
Jan
14		 UAB D D+ B+ F F 40% 13% 47% B+ F+ D A+ B B A C A- D- B- A F C- 55% 28% 17% C- C- F F F B C+ F F
0.99 55% 43% 23% -9 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23 1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28
Jan
18		 North Texas D- F F C+ F 25% 23% 52% D+ F F B D- A+ A+ B+ A+ C- A- C F D+ 47% 13% 40% D D+ F A+ B A F F F
0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44 1.06 48% 33% 39% -3 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42
Jan
21		 Florida Atlantic C D- D+ B- D+ 45% 26% 30% D D F+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C B- F F D- 51% 15% 34% F F+ A+ F B+ D+ F A+ F
1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39 1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28
Jan
23		 Charlotte D B A+ F D+ 36% 23% 40% C- D+ F A+ F B- A A+ A+ B F A+ C D 45% 9% 45% D- D D D+ D A+ C- C C-
1.03 65% 55% 21% -2 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34 1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26
Jan
28		 South Florida B- A+ C A A+ 29% 14% 57% B- A+ F+ F F A B+ D+ B F D+ B- A C+ 44% 12% 44% B- C+ D- F F D F B- F
1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25 1.28 61% 33% 26% -5 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Memphis A- C A+ A A 41% 9% 50% A A+ F A+ D- B- A+ B+ A+ C C+ D A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% B- A F A+ B- D- F F F
1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36 1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55
Feb
8		 Wichita St. F B+ F F F 45% 20% 35% A F+ F F F D- A+ A+ A+ B D+ F B D 42% 16% 42% D D B A+ A+ A+ C A+ B+
0.84 64% 10% 18% -12 0 0.80 16% 0.7 .11 19% .41 83% .34 1.03 61% 56% 30% +2 +1 1.07 36% 0.6 .21 21% .33 53% .17
Feb
11		 Temple C B A+ F C 49% 13% 38% A- C+ D+ A+ A F+ A+ D- A+ A- A C+ A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% D- A+ C A+ B+ D+ F C+ F
1.13 63% 60% 27% +1 +2 1.08 27% 1.6 .43 19% .73 68% .49 0.97 45% 38% 23% -13 +1 0.78 29% 0.8 .21 12% .45 74% .33
Feb
15		 UAB F+ F F+ C F+ 39% 14% 47% B D- F+ F F C+ F A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% D- A D- A+ A+ C+ C A+ B
0.88 45% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.6 .11 16% .09 100% .09 0.86 50% 22% 24% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.4 .15 13% .31 59% .18
Feb
19		 North Texas A A+ F B- B- 38% 21% 42% C+ B- C A- B A+ A- C B+ C- A+ F A+ B+ 45% 33% 21% A+ A- F+ F F C+ F C- F
1.17 72% 10% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 15% .43 71% .31 1.08 42% 43% 22% -9 -1 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 18% .54 72% .39
Feb
22		 Rice C+ F A+ A B- 36% 2% 62% A+ B+ F+ A+ C+ C A+ C A+ D+ C A+ F D 31% 24% 45% D- D A+ D A+ D+ D F F
1.18 47% 100% 42% +5 +2 1.17 25% 1.4 .36 16% .54 74% .40 1.09 56% 25% 43% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 16% .35 80% .28
Feb
25		 Tulsa F F C+ F F 38% 17% 46% C+ F D+ D- D F+ B F C F C+ C- F D 42% 9% 49% C D F C+ F+ D+ A- C A-
0.84 44% 38% 27% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.0 .22 20% .30 63% .19 1.36 57% 40% 44% +7 +2 1.20 40% 1.2 .49 14% .26 80% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 0.4 3rd
4th 4.0 4.3 0.2 8.6 4th
5th 6.9 18.7 2.4 28.0 5th
6th 0.0 19.8 2.6 22.4 6th
7th 0.5 11.8 12.3 7th
8th 3.5 2.7 6.3 8th
9th 10.1 0.2 10.3 9th
10th 11.8 11.8 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 25.9 41.5 25.3 6.9 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.5% 6.3% 6.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 6.9% 1.7% 1.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.8
10-8 25.3% 0.9% 0.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 25.1
9-9 41.5% 0.4% 0.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 41.3
8-10 25.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 25.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 13.6 99.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 16.9%