Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#193
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#142
Pace66.6#262
Improvement+0.7#126

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#160
First Shot+2.3#110
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#311
Layup/Dunks-0.2#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#268
Freethrows+4.5#10
Improvement-3.3#357

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#249
First Shot-1.0#206
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#287
Layups/Dunks+5.2#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#336
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+4.0#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.1% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.9
.500 or above 37.8% 49.7% 25.8%
.500 or above in Conference 19.9% 28.8% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.7% 8.2% 25.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.7% 1.1% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 35 - 76 - 14
Quad 49 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 227 Samford W 85-72 68%     1 - 0 +6.0 +14.1 -7.1
  Sat, Nov 8 257 Texas St. W 79-71 72%     2 - 0 -0.3 +7.6 -7.4
  Tue, Nov 11 315 @Louisiana W 66-62 64%     3 - 0 -1.9 +0.3 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 14 242 New Orleans L 63-85 70%     3 - 1 -29.7 -10.9 -20.2
  Fri, Nov 21 32 Utah St. L 75-96 8%     3 - 2 -7.5 +9.2 -17.1
  Sun, Nov 23 152 Boston College W 93-90 OT 39%     4 - 2 +3.7 +13.2 -9.8
  Fri, Nov 28 232 Nicholls St. W 82-72 69%     5 - 2 +2.6 +7.5 -4.8
  Tue, Dec 2 241 Grambling St. W 65-63 70%     6 - 2 -5.6 -1.3 -4.0
  Sat, Dec 6 59 Akron L 71-88 22%     6 - 3 -11.1 -4.9 -6.0
  Sat, Dec 13 84 UC San Diego L 67-93 20%     6 - 4 -19.2 -9.7 -6.8
  Wed, Dec 17 188 Louisiana Tech W 61-53 60%     7 - 4 +3.2 +1.4 +3.3
  Sat, Dec 20 174 Portland St. W 63-61 57%     8 - 4 -2.1 -3.8 +1.9
  Wed, Dec 31 258 @East Carolina W 73-72 50%    
  Sun, Jan 4 116 Florida Atlantic L 76-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 294 @Texas San Antonio W 75-73 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 106 UAB L 74-77 38%    
  Sun, Jan 18 148 North Texas L 65-66 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 116 @Florida Atlantic L 73-81 22%    
  Sun, Jan 25 185 @Charlotte L 69-72 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 79 South Florida L 76-82 29%    
  Sun, Feb 1 74 @Memphis L 67-80 12%    
  Sun, Feb 8 97 Wichita St. L 69-74 33%    
  Wed, Feb 11 147 Temple L 75-76 50%    
  Sun, Feb 15 106 @UAB L 71-80 20%    
  Wed, Feb 18 148 @North Texas L 63-69 29%    
  Sun, Feb 22 230 Rice W 74-69 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 80 Tulsa L 73-79 29%    
  Sun, Mar 1 79 @South Florida L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Mar 5 147 @Temple L 73-79 29%    
  Sun, Mar 8 74 Memphis L 70-77 27%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.5 3.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.8 1.2 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.2 2.4 0.1 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.2 3.9 0.4 0.0 15.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.8 4.1 0.6 0.0 16.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 3.8 5.5 3.6 0.6 0.0 14.4 12th
13th 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.0 13th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.6 7.5 11.5 14.3 15.5 14.6 11.6 8.7 5.5 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 92.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 60.9% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 19.2% 19.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.2% 11.6% 11.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.7% 5.4% 5.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.5% 8.7% 8.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
11-7 3.2% 4.1% 4.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-8 5.5% 2.6% 2.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
9-9 8.7% 1.0% 1.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6
8-10 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 11.6
7-11 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.6
6-12 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4
5-13 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-14 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-15 7.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%