Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #173
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #146
Pace 67.0 #230
Improvement +2.8 #71

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #159 C- D B A- C
Defense #207 C D+ C+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 1.19 #128 -1.3 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #195 0.74 #209 -0.6 #209
Three Pointers 45% #99 0.95 #270 +0.5 #156
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #214 -1.4 #216
Freethrows 0.37 #28 77% #25 0.28 #10
Second Chance 21.1% #355 1.15 #39 0.24 #328
Turnovers 14.3% #40
Total Offense +0.1 #159

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.13 #145 +1.7 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.74 #156 -0.3 #208
Three Pointers 43% #107 1.09 #283 -2.7 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #205 -1.3 #219
Freethrows 0.33 #249 70% #89 0.23 #226
Second Chance 34.3% #318 1.03 #190 0.35 #282
Turnovers 17.8% #131
Total Defense -1.0 #207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #215 -0.2% #148
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #213 1.7% #214
Possession Length 16.9 #128 18.3 #321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #263 0.16 #151
Improvement -1.2 #253 +3.9 #20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 54.7% 72.4% 43.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.9% 35.9% 12.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 39.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 35 - 67 - 13
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 229 Samford W 85 - 72 72% +6  1 - 0 +6 +13 A+ F C+ -6 C- F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 254 Texas St. W 79 - 71 76% -6  2 - 0 -0 +8 C+ F B- -8 C- F D
 Tue, Nov 11 295 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 65% +3  3 - 0 -1 -1 F+ C B- +0 B- F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 210 New Orleans L 63 - 85 69% -11  3 - 1 -28 -11 F F A+ -18 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 32 Utah St. L 75 - 96 8% -6  3 - 2 -7 +10 A D+ A- -17 F C C-
 Sun, Nov 23 125 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 38% +1  4 - 2 +5 +15 B A+ A+ -10 C D D-
 Fri, Nov 28 248 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 75% +7  5 - 2 +2 +7 B F A -5 F B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 277 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 80% +0  6 - 2 -8 -1 F D A+ -6 C F B
 Sat, Dec 6 63 Akron L 71 - 88 26% -8  6 - 3 -11 -2 F+ F+ A+ -9 D+ D- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 139 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 41% -16  6 - 4 -25 -11 D- F D -11 D- C- C
 Wed, Dec 17 227 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 71% +6  7 - 4 +1 -1 F C+ A+ +3 A B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 142 Portland St. W 63 - 61 53% +3  8 - 4 +0 -2 F+ D+ D- +2 A D- C
 Wed, Dec 31 247 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 54% +1  9 - 4 1 - 0 +7 +12 B- A- C- -5 C- B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 109 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 44% -1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +4 -3 D C+ B- +6 A- D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 343 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 77% +19  11 - 4 3 - 0 +24 +10 C+ C B- +15 A- B A
 Wed, Jan 14 119 UAB L 69 - 82 47% -4  11 - 5 3 - 1 -13 -4 D- B B -9 C F B
 Sun, Jan 18 151 North Texas L 63 - 71 56% -6  11 - 6 3 - 2 -10 -3 F+ D- A+ -7 D B- A-
 Wed, Jan 21 109 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 24% -6  11 - 7 3 - 3 +2 +3 D+ C+ C- -2 D- A D-
 Fri, Jan 23 156 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 36% -5  11 - 8 3 - 4 -0 -2 C- F B- +2 D D A+
 Wed, Jan 28 70 South Florida L 83 - 97 28% -11  11 - 9 3 - 5 -9 +5 A+ F A -13 C+ F D
 Sun, Feb 1 97 @Memphis W 78 - 76 19% +5  12 - 9 4 - 5 +10 +14 A+ D B -4 A+ B- F+
 Sun, Feb 8 98 Wichita St. L 71 - 74 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 143 Temple W 73 - 72 54%
 Sun, Feb 15 119 @UAB L 72 - 79 27%
 Wed, Feb 18 151 @North Texas L 64 - 68 34%
 Sun, Feb 22 226 Rice W 76 - 70 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 69 Tulsa L 75 - 81 28%
 Sun, Mar 1 70 @South Florida L 74 - 86 13%
 Thu, Mar 5 143 @Temple L 70 - 75 32%
 Sun, Mar 8 97 Memphis L 71 - 74 37%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1 +0 C- D B -1 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.4 2.0 0.2 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 2.4 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.8 5.3 0.8 6.9 7th
8th 0.5 7.0 4.5 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 9.5 11.8 0.7 23.0 9th
10th 0.7 7.8 12.7 2.5 23.7 10th
11th 0.6 5.0 9.9 3.0 0.1 18.6 11th
12th 1.3 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.9 8.6 19.8 25.7 22.2 13.3 6.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.4
11-7 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 6.4% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.2
9-9 13.3% 1.3% 1.3% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.1
8-10 22.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 22.1
7-11 25.7% 0.6% 0.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 25.6
6-12 19.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 19.8
5-13 8.6% 8.6
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 13.9 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%