Tulane
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#220
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#324
Pace68.9#182
Improvement-3.7#355

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#209
First Shot+0.1#173
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#266
Layup/Dunks-3.3#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#133
Freethrows+2.5#61
Improvement-1.5#295

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#233
First Shot-1.6#222
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#210
Layups/Dunks+2.2#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#348
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement-2.2#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 9.9% 24.3% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 35.6% 22.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 19.4% 11.3% 20.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 47 - 511 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 332   Louisiana Monroe W 80-64 82%     1 - 0 +3.2 -1.7 +4.2
  Nov 11, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 84-51 88%     2 - 0 +17.3 +10.7 +9.5
  Nov 15, 2024 119   @ Furman L 67-75 20%     2 - 1 -2.3 +1.5 -4.3
  Nov 19, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 72-57 73%     3 - 1 +5.4 -2.4 +8.0
  Nov 22, 2024 344   New Orleans L 87-93 OT 87%     3 - 2 -21.2 -7.4 -12.8
  Nov 26, 2024 177   Wyoming L 63-64 41%     3 - 3 -1.9 -6.7 +4.7
  Nov 27, 2024 132   Belmont L 66-89 32%     3 - 4 -21.5 -6.7 -15.2
  Dec 02, 2024 227   SE Louisiana L 67-71 63%     3 - 5 -10.6 -2.5 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 62-75 12%    
  Dec 10, 2024 250   Southern Miss W 76-72 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 61   Florida St. L 68-80 12%    
  Dec 31, 2024 205   @ Charlotte L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 249   Texas San Antonio W 79-75 66%    
  Jan 07, 2025 124   @ UAB L 73-81 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 148   South Florida L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 15, 2025 92   Florida Atlantic L 76-82 29%    
  Jan 19, 2025 118   @ Temple L 70-79 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 168   @ Rice L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 32   Memphis L 71-84 12%    
  Feb 02, 2025 225   Tulsa W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 249   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-78 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 77   @ North Texas L 57-70 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 168   Rice W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 159   East Carolina L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 23, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 67-79 15%    
  Feb 26, 2025 205   Charlotte W 69-67 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 225   @ Tulsa L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 66-72 29%    
  Mar 09, 2025 124   UAB L 76-78 41%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.6 1.6 0.1 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.3 2.6 0.2 12.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.6 3.8 0.4 12.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.7 12th
13th 0.2 1.5 3.1 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.9 13th
Total 0.2 1.5 3.5 6.8 10.5 12.8 14.6 14.0 12.2 9.4 6.8 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 54.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 24.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 5.9% 5.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.0% 3.3% 3.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-6 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
11-7 3.9% 2.4% 2.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
10-8 6.8% 0.7% 0.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
9-9 9.4% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
8-10 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.2
7-11 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.0
6-12 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-14 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-15 6.8% 6.8
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%