Tulane
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#77
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#89
Pace78.7#12
Improvement+0.8#88

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#54
First Shot+7.1#20
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#322
Layup/Dunks+3.1#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#206
Freethrows+3.7#6
Improvement+0.3#137

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#118
First Shot-0.5#193
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#12
Layups/Dunks+5.0#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#349
Freethrows+1.6#67
Improvement+0.5#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.9% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 11.6 12.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.9% 98.2%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round4.2% 5.4% 3.8%
Second Round1.1% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 23 - 14 - 5
Quad 35 - 49 - 9
Quad 49 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 217   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 89-67 87%     1 - 0 +17.0 +4.3 +11.4
  Nov 11, 2022 339   McNeese St. W 75-58 96%     2 - 0 +3.3 -11.2 +13.6
  Nov 16, 2022 280   Charleston Southern W 99-79 92%     3 - 0 +11.0 +11.1 -1.3
  Nov 21, 2022 59   Nevada L 66-75 42%     3 - 1 -0.1 -2.0 +1.9
  Nov 22, 2022 198   Rhode Island W 78-75 79%     4 - 1 +1.5 +8.3 -6.7
  Nov 23, 2022 163   Western Kentucky L 65-71 74%     4 - 2 -5.7 -4.3 -1.7
  Nov 28, 2022 265   Louisiana Monroe W 75-60 91%     5 - 2 +6.8 +2.0 +5.3
  Dec 03, 2022 132   Fordham L 90-95 77%     5 - 3 -5.8 +6.0 -11.0
  Dec 10, 2022 183   Buffalo W 88-63 76%     6 - 3 +24.5 +10.5 +12.7
  Dec 17, 2022 122   George Mason L 56-62 66%     6 - 4 -3.3 -17.8 +14.7
  Dec 21, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 84-63 99%     7 - 4 +1.1 -1.5 +1.3
  Dec 29, 2022 56   @ Cincinnati L 77-88 31%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +1.0 +1.7 +0.5
  Jan 01, 2023 38   Memphis W 96-89 43%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +15.7 +11.1 +3.5
  Jan 04, 2023 235   Tulsa W 93-77 89%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +9.5 +9.7 -1.4
  Jan 07, 2023 98   @ Temple W 87-76 47%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +18.6 +19.3 -0.8
  Jan 11, 2023 167   @ SMU W 97-88 65%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +11.8 +15.2 -4.5
  Jan 14, 2023 65   Central Florida W 77-69 55%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +13.7 -2.0 +14.6
  Jan 17, 2023 1   Houston L 60-80 18%     12 - 6 5 - 2 -3.3 -1.2 -3.0
  Jan 21, 2023 235   @ Tulsa L 79-81 OT 77%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -3.0 -4.9 +2.1
  Jan 25, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. W 95-90 OT 52%     13 - 7 6 - 3 +11.4 +15.2 -4.5
  Feb 01, 2023 167   SMU W 74-52 82%     14 - 7 7 - 3 +19.4 -1.6 +20.0
  Feb 04, 2023 38   @ Memphis L 79-86 24%    
  Feb 07, 2023 56   Cincinnati W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 205   East Carolina W 83-72 86%    
  Feb 18, 2023 129   @ South Florida W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 22, 2023 1   @ Houston L 64-79 7%    
  Feb 26, 2023 109   Wichita St. W 76-70 72%    
  Mar 01, 2023 205   @ East Carolina W 80-74 70%    
  Mar 05, 2023 98   Temple W 77-72 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.7 7.6 11.4 3.6 0.1 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 8.3 15.8 3.9 0.0 28.3 3rd
4th 0.1 4.7 14.7 3.8 0.1 23.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 9.9 4.4 0.1 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.2 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.3 6.5 17.2 28.0 27.3 15.4 3.9 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 58.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 8.0% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 42.0% 7.0% 35.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 37.7%
14-4 3.9% 9.1% 6.4% 2.7% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.9%
13-5 15.4% 5.5% 5.2% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 14.6 0.3%
12-6 27.3% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 26.0 0.0%
11-7 28.0% 3.6% 3.6% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 27.0
10-8 17.2% 3.0% 3.0% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 16.7
9-9 6.5% 2.4% 2.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
8-10 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.0% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 95.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 42.0% 10.2 1.3 7.0 14.0 19.7
Lose Out 0.1% 1.4% 16.0 1.4