Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #170
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #148
Pace 66.8 #239
Improvement +3.3 #44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #180 D D B+ A C-
Defense #186 C- D+ C+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.18 #155 -1.8 #249
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.67 #296 -0.6 #202
Three Pointers 44% #133 0.90 #316 -1.0 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #276 -3.4 #276
Freethrows 20.4 #43 79% #26 16.0 #18
Second Chance 22.2% #353 1.22 #23 0.27 #281
Turnovers 13.9% #43
Total Offense -0.4 #180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #251 1.08 #77 +2.9 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #175 0.81 #273 -0.5 #219
Three Pointers 43% #107 1.13 #316 -3.7 #318
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #217 -1.3 #216
Freethrows 17.0 #169 69% #51 11.8 #135
Second Chance 33.8% #308 1.06 #197 0.36 #269
Turnovers 17.5% #112
Total Defense -0.6 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #236 -0.3% #135
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #272 2.9% #234
Possession Length 17.0 #141 18.5 #330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #243 0.16 #134
Improvement -1.8 #287 +5.1 #9

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.9 13.9
.500 or above 50.6% 68.7% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.0% 36.3% 14.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 251 Samford W 85 - 72 74% +6  1 - 0 +5 +12 A+ F C -6 C- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 263 Texas St. W 79 - 71 77% -6  2 - 0 -1 +8 C F B -8 C- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 311 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 68% +3  3 - 0 -2 -0 F C C+ -1 C+ F F
 Fri, Nov 14 236 New Orleans L 63 - 85 72% -11  3 - 1 -29 -13 F F A+ -18 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 39 Utah St. L 75 - 96 10% -6  3 - 2 -8 +8 A+ D- A- -16 F B- C
 Sun, Nov 23 134 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 40% +1  4 - 2 +5 +15 B+ A+ A+ -10 C D D-
 Fri, Nov 28 231 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 72% +7  5 - 2 +3 +6 B F A+ -3 F A C
 Tue, Dec 2 288 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 81% +0  6 - 2 -8 -2 F D- A+ -6 C F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 64 Akron L 71 - 88 26% -8  6 - 3 -11 -4 F F A+ -8 C- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 111 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 32% -16  6 - 4 -22 -12 F F F -8 D C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 229 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 71% +6  7 - 4 +1 +0 F C+ A+ +2 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 20 151 Portland St. W 63 - 61 56% +3  8 - 4 -1 -4 F D F +3 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 270 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 57% +1  9 - 4 1 - 0 +6 +12 B- A D -6 D+ B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 94 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 36% -1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +6 -2 D- B- B +7 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 344 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 78% +19  11 - 4 3 - 0 +24 +10 B- C C+ +14 A B- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 116 UAB L 69 - 82 45% -4  11 - 5 3 - 1 -13 -4 F B+ B -9 C F B+
 Sun, Jan 18 130 North Texas L 63 - 71 50% -6  11 - 6 3 - 2 -9 -3 F F A+ -7 D+ B+ A
 Wed, Jan 21 94 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 18% -6  11 - 7 3 - 3 +4 +5 D- A C -1 D- A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 23 172 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Jan 28 86 South Florida L 76 - 81 32%
 Sun, Feb 1 92 @Memphis L 66 - 76 18%
 Sun, Feb 8 102 Wichita St. L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 139 Temple W 73 - 72 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 116 @UAB L 72 - 79 24%
 Wed, Feb 18 130 @North Texas L 62 - 68 30%
 Sun, Feb 22 240 Rice W 74 - 68 72%
 Wed, Feb 25 69 Tulsa L 74 - 80 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 86 @South Florida L 73 - 84 15%
 Thu, Mar 5 139 @Temple L 70 - 75 32%
 Sun, Mar 8 92 Memphis L 69 - 73 35%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1 +0 D D B+ -1 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 0.6 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 2.8 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.7 1.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.8 5.8 4.0 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 7.0 8.4 1.0 17.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.4 11.2 11.7 3.2 0.1 29.9 10th
11th 0.5 3.3 7.4 6.6 2.0 0.1 19.8 11th
12th 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 1.1 5.1 11.9 18.9 21.4 18.8 11.8 7.3 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 42.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1
12-6 5.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 12.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.8% 6.5% 6.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 2.8% 8.5% 8.5% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6
10-8 7.3% 2.5% 2.5% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
9-9 11.8% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.7
8-10 18.8% 0.9% 0.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.6
7-11 21.4% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 21.3
6-12 18.9% 0.4% 0.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8
5-13 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 11.8
4-14 5.1% 5.1
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 13.3 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%