Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 176
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 147
Pace 67.1 225
Improvement +3.0 69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 180 C- D B A C
Defense C 176 C C- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 244 C+ 60% 123 +21.9 195
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 231 C- 36% 245 +6.9 234
Three Pointers 45% 107 D 31% 295 +20.8 175
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 187 C- -1.6 232
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 223
Second Chance F 21.3% 356 B 1.14 49 D 0.24 322
Turnovers B 14.8% 62
Freethrows A- 0.38 8 B+ 77% 30 A 0.29 5
Total Offense C -0.7 180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 240 C+ 56% 129 +20.7 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 205 C 38% 161 +7.9 175
Three Pointers 44% 93 D+ 35% 248 +23.3 71
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 168 C +0.2 192
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 184
Second Chance D 33.9% 316 C+ 0.99 117 C- 0.33 241
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 119
Freethrows C- 0.32 224 B 70% 56 C 0.22 197
Total Defense C -0.3 176

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 120 18.2 308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 274 0.17 167
Improvement -2.1 #300 +5.1 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 58% 82% 49%
.500 or above in Conference 19% 40% 11%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 35 - 77 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 187 Samford W 85 - 72 64% +6  76% 1 - 0 B +8 A +12 A+ F C+ C- -3 C F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 233 Texas St. W 79 - 71 72% -6  13% 2 - 0 C +1 B +6 C+ F B- D+ -4 C F D
 Tue, Nov 11 295 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 64% +3  73% 3 - 0 C -1 D+ -4 F+ C B B- +3 B F F
 Fri, Nov 14 223 New Orleans L 63 - 85 70% -11  0% 3 - 1 F -29 F -13 F F A+ F -17 F F B
 Fri, Nov 21 31 Utah St. L 75 - 96 8% -6  30% 3 - 2 D+ -6 B +7 A D B F -13 F C C-
 Sun, Nov 23 133 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 40% +1  54% 4 - 2 C+ +5 A +12 B- A+ A D- -8 C D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 260 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 77% +7  89% 5 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 B- F A- C -1 F B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 287 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 81% +0  48% 6 - 2 D -8 D+ -3 F D A+ D+ -5 C F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 79 Akron L 71 - 88 30% -8  11% 6 - 3 D- -13 D -6 F+ F+ A+ D -7 D D- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 139 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 41% -16  8% 6 - 4 F -25 F -12 D- F D- F+ -10 D- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 220 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 70% +6  93% 7 - 4 C+ +2 D+ -2 F C+ A+ B +6 A+ B A-
 Sat, Dec 20 145 Portland St. W 63 - 61 55% +3  79% 8 - 4 C -0 D -5 F D F B +5 A D C
 Wed, Dec 31 242 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 52% +1  53% 9 - 4 1 - 0 B- +8 B+ +9 B- A- D+ C -1 C- B F
 Sun, Jan 4 115 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 46% -1  28% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 D -6 D- C+ C+ A- +9 A- D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 346 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 79% +19  92% 11 - 4 3 - 0 A+ +23 B +7 B- C- C+ A+ +17 A B A
 Wed, Jan 14 117 UAB L 69 - 82 47% -4  13% 11 - 5 3 - 1 D- -13 D -6 F+ B B D- -8 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 18 134 North Texas L 63 - 71 52% -6  6% 11 - 6 3 - 2 D -9 D -6 F+ D- A+ D+ -4 D B A-
 Wed, Jan 21 115 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 25% -6  5% 11 - 7 3 - 3 C +1 C +1 D C+ D+ C+ +1 F+ A D
 Fri, Jan 23 170 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 37% -5  19% 11 - 8 3 - 4 C -1 D -4 C- F B- B- +4 D- D A+
 Wed, Jan 28 61 South Florida L 83 - 97 26% -11  6% 11 - 9 3 - 5 D -8 B- +4 A+ F A F+ -11 B- F D
 Sun, Feb 1 92 @Memphis W 78 - 76 19% +5  88% 12 - 9 4 - 5 B +10 A- +11 A+ D B C -1 A B D-
 Sun, Feb 8 91 Wichita St. L 61 - 75 37% -6  12% 12 - 10 4 - 6 D- -12 F -14 F+ F D B- +3 D A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 148 Temple W 77 - 66 56% +6  69% 13 - 10 5 - 6 B +9 C +1 B- A F+ B+ +8 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 15 117 @UAB L 71 - 78 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 134 @North Texas L 63 - 69 30%
 Sun, Feb 22 229 Rice W 76 - 70 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 74 Tulsa L 74 - 80 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 61 @South Florida L 72 - 85 12%
 Thu, Mar 5 148 @Temple L 70 - 75 33%
 Sun, Mar 8 92 Memphis L 71 - 74 37%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1 F -1 D- C- C C +0 D B+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C- D C- 36% 33% 45% C C- F B D B A- B+ A C C+ C D+ C 37% 20% 44% C C D C+ C- C+ C- B C
1.08 60% 36% 31% -2 0 0.99 21% 1.1 .24 15% .38 77% .29 1.09 56% 38% 35% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.0 .33 18% .32 70% .27
Nov
3		 Samford A A- A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% C- A+ F D F C+ F+ A+ C- C- B A- F D+ 25% 27% 48% A C F D+ F B+ B+ A A-
1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21 1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18
Nov
8		 Texas St. B C+ F A+ C+ 41% 14% 45% C+ C+ F F F B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A B+ F C+ 46% 25% 29% D C C F F D B F C+
1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54 1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20
Nov
11		 Louisiana D+ A+ F F F 54% 17% 29% B- F+ F A+ C B A+ B+ A+ B- F C+ A- B- 13% 31% 56% B B D- F F F F A+ D
1.03 73% 0% 17% -6 +2 0.93 19% 1.8 .35 16% .50 78% .39 0.97 67% 36% 28% -4 -3 0.87 31% 1.1 .33 13% .38 52% .20
Nov
14		 New Orleans F A A- F F 36% 13% 51% C+ F F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+ F F F 29% 17% 55% C- F D F F B F B F
0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40 1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39
Nov
21		 Utah St. B F F+ A+ A+ 20% 22% 57% D A F A+ D B B- C+ B- F F F F F 34% 24% 42% A+ F C+ C C C- C+ B+ B
1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25 1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20
Nov
23		 Boston College A A D F B- 48% 24% 28% B- B- D- A+ A+ A A+ A A+ D- A- D+ D C 33% 24% 43% C+ C B F D+ D- F F F
1.18 69% 31% 20% -2 0 0.98 21% 2.1 .45 10% .51 72% .37 1.15 47% 43% 36% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.3 .34 13% .52 78% .41
Nov
28		 Nicholls St. C+ B+ B- B B- 42% 15% 44% C+ B- F F+ F A- A F B- C A- F F F 40% 19% 42% C F C+ A+ B+ C F A+ C
1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30 1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19
Dec
2		 Grambling St. D+ D F C- F 38% 22% 40% D F C- D- D A+ B B B+ D+ F F+ A+ C- 26% 17% 57% B- C D- F F B+ F B- F+
1.05 53% 20% 33% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 11% .38 76% .29 1.02 73% 43% 25% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.3 .43 24% .43 70% .30
Dec
6		 Akron D C A+ F F+ 25% 19% 56% D F+ F C F+ A+ A- C B+ D B- F F D 32% 12% 56% C D F B D- A- D C D+
1.00 57% 55% 22% -7 -1 0.86 22% 1.0 .22 11% .35 73% .25 1.24 56% 50% 43% +8 +1 1.20 42% 1.2 .52 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 UC San Diego F C+ C- F F+ 42% 25% 33% C D- F F+ F D- A C- A- F+ D+ A+ F D 53% 5% 42% F D- F A D+ C- B- C B-
0.86 58% 36% 16% -10 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24 1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17
Dec
17		 Louisiana Tech D+ C A+ F F 28% 13% 59% C F D A C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B A D A+ A+ 51% 16% 33% F A+ F A+ B A- F F F
1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46 0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31
Dec
20		 Portland St. D F A+ F F 50% 18% 32% B F B+ F D F A+ A A+ B A+ F A+ A 40% 21% 38% B A C- D- D C C+ A B-
0.96 45% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50 0.93 42% 60% 22% -8 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19
Dec
31		 East Carolina B+ D- D A+ B 28% 28% 44% D- B- A- B- A- D+ A+ F A+ C D A+ C- C- 43% 24% 33% D+ C- D+ A+ B F C+ A B
1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33 1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21
Jan
4		 Florida Atlantic D D+ F C+ D- 39% 19% 43% C- D- D A+ C+ C+ D- A D+ A- B+ F A+ A- 28% 26% 46% A A- F B D+ A+ C+ A+ B+
0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20 0.95 50% 62% 22% -5 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17
Jan
10		 Texas San Antonio B D F A B- 22% 12% 66% D+ B- F A+ C- C+ F A+ F A+ C A+ B+ A- 33% 27% 40% B+ A B B- B A F A+ D
1.24 54% 29% 41% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.4 .39 15% .12 86% .10 0.76 53% 8% 28% -13 -1 0.73 26% 0.8 .21 23% .36 58% .21
Jan
14		 UAB D D+ A- F F 40% 13% 47% B+ F+ D A+ B B A- C B+ D- B- A F C- 55% 28% 17% C- C- F D- F B C+ F F
0.99 55% 43% 23% -8 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23 1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28
Jan
18		 North Texas D F F B- F+ 25% 23% 52% D F+ F B D- A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ A- C F D+ 47% 13% 40% D+ D F A+ B A- F F F
0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44 1.06 48% 33% 39% -3 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42
Jan
21		 Florida Atlantic C D- D+ C+ D+ 45% 26% 30% D D F+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- F F D- 51% 15% 34% F+ F+ A+ F A D F A+ F+
1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39 1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28
Jan
23		 Charlotte D B A+ F C- 36% 23% 40% C- C- F A+ F B- A A+ A+ B- F A+ C D- 45% 9% 45% D- D- D+ D+ D A+ C- C- C-
1.03 65% 55% 21% -2 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34 1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26
Jan
28		 South Florida B- A C A A+ 29% 14% 57% B- A+ F F F A B+ D+ B- F+ D+ B- A C+ 44% 12% 44% B- B- D- F F D F B- F
1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25 1.28 61% 33% 26% -4 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Memphis A- C A+ A A 41% 9% 50% A A+ F A+ D B A+ A- A+ C C+ D- A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% B- A F+ A+ B D- F F F
1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36 1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55
Feb
8		 Wichita St. F B+ F F F 45% 20% 35% A- F+ F F F D A+ A+ A+ B- D+ F B D 42% 16% 42% D+ D B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B
0.84 64% 10% 18% -12 0 0.80 16% 0.7 .11 19% .41 83% .34 1.03 61% 56% 30% +2 +1 1.07 36% 0.6 .21 21% .33 53% .17
Feb
11		 Temple C B- A+ F C+ 49% 13% 38% B+ B- D+ A+ A F+ A+ D A+ B+ A C+ A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% D+ A+ C A B+ D+ F B- D-
1.13 63% 60% 27% +1 +2 1.08 27% 1.6 .43 19% .73 68% .49 0.97 45% 38% 23% -13 +1 0.78 29% 0.8 .21 12% .45 74% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 1.5 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 5.4 0.4 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 5.6 4.7 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 5.7 14.1 1.3 21.1 9th
10th 5.4 19.6 5.1 0.0 30.1 10th
11th 2.2 11.4 4.7 0.1 18.3 11th
12th 3.1 3.4 0.3 6.7 12th
13th 13th
Total 5.2 20.2 30.4 25.4 13.4 4.5 0.8 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 31.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.8% 4.4% 4.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 4.5% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
9-9 13.4% 1.3% 1.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.3
8-10 25.4% 0.7% 0.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 25.2
7-11 30.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 30.2
6-12 20.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.2
5-13 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 13.9 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%