Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#109
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#135
Pace65.8#256
Improvement-0.5#254

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#195
First Shot-0.5#200
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks+2.1#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#249
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement+1.0#44

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#66
First Shot+3.9#66
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#144
Layups/Dunks+2.5#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
Freethrows+2.2#44
Improvement-1.5#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.1 15.1
.500 or above 51.9% 80.9% 48.2%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 54.9% 21.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round1.5% 2.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Home) - 11.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 22 - 42 - 10
Quad 35 - 37 - 13
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 79-55 94%     1 - 0 +10.3 -6.2 +14.9
  Nov 12, 2022 289   Alcorn St. L 57-66 89%     1 - 1 -18.5 -13.3 -6.3
  Nov 17, 2022 125   @ Richmond W 56-53 44%     2 - 1 +8.1 -5.1 +13.6
  Nov 21, 2022 116   Grand Canyon W 55-43 53%     3 - 1 +14.8 -7.3 +24.5
  Nov 22, 2022 88   San Francisco L 63-67 42%     3 - 2 +1.6 -4.4 +5.8
  Nov 26, 2022 187   Tarleton St. W 83-71 76%     4 - 2 +8.3 +14.0 -5.0
  Nov 29, 2022 46   Missouri L 84-88 OT 36%     4 - 3 +3.3 -1.6 +5.4
  Dec 03, 2022 28   @ Kansas St. L 50-55 14%     4 - 4 +10.5 -9.7 +19.7
  Dec 10, 2022 181   Longwood W 81-63 74%     5 - 4 +14.8 +9.0 +6.2
  Dec 13, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 71-48 98%     6 - 4 +3.1 -11.1 +13.6
  Dec 17, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. L 49-59 22%     6 - 5 +1.9 -8.9 +9.8
  Dec 22, 2022 314   Texas Southern W 65-56 91%     7 - 5 -1.9 -11.0 +9.0
  Dec 28, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 45-52 24%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +4.1 -7.5 +9.4
  Dec 31, 2022 205   East Carolina L 69-79 78%     7 - 7 0 - 2 -14.5 -0.7 -14.5
  Jan 05, 2023 56   Cincinnati L 61-70 39%     7 - 8 0 - 3 -2.5 -5.9 +3.1
  Jan 08, 2023 129   @ South Florida W 70-66 45%     8 - 8 1 - 3 +9.0 -1.7 +10.6
  Jan 14, 2023 235   Tulsa W 73-69 83%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -2.5 -3.1 +0.7
  Jan 19, 2023 38   @ Memphis L 78-88 16%     9 - 9 2 - 4 +4.2 +12.9 -8.9
  Jan 22, 2023 167   @ SMU W 71-69 53%     10 - 9 3 - 4 +4.8 -2.8 +7.5
  Jan 25, 2023 77   Tulane L 90-95 OT 48%     10 - 10 3 - 5 -0.8 +5.7 -5.9
  Jan 29, 2023 205   @ East Carolina W 85-72 60%     11 - 10 4 - 5 +14.0 +9.6 +3.9
  Feb 02, 2023 1   Houston L 56-69 11%    
  Feb 05, 2023 235   @ Tulsa W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 08, 2023 65   Central Florida L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 12, 2023 167   SMU W 69-63 73%    
  Feb 16, 2023 98   @ Temple L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 23, 2023 38   Memphis L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 26, 2023 77   @ Tulane L 70-76 28%    
  Mar 02, 2023 1   @ Houston L 53-72 4%    
  Mar 05, 2023 129   South Florida W 69-65 66%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 3.5 0.2 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 6.0 9.1 2.0 0.0 17.9 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 17.9 19.1 5.3 0.1 46.6 7th
8th 1.9 9.0 7.3 1.2 0.0 19.5 8th
9th 0.4 3.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.8 5.6 15.4 26.4 26.4 16.6 7.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 7.0% 2.4% 2.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
9-9 16.6% 2.0% 2.0% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 16.3
8-10 26.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 26.0
7-11 26.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 26.0
6-12 15.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 15.2
5-13 5.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.5
4-14 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8% 1.0% 16.0 1.0