Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #98
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #112
Pace 66.0 #253
Improvement -2.1 #271

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #105 C- A- B C C
Defense #97 B- B- C B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #78 1.07 #277 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.72 #232 -0.2 #191
Three Pointers 37% #271 1.03 #172 -2.1 #255
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -1.9 #229
Freethrows 0.32 #157 68% #314 0.21 #206
Second Chance 39.8% #9 1.06 #134 0.42 #25
Turnovers 14.7% #46
Total Offense +2.5 #105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.11 #118 +1.9 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #14 0.78 #221 -3.4 #357
Three Pointers 35% #339 0.94 #73 +4.6 #23
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #77 +3.1 #79
Freethrows 0.28 #82 70% #57 0.19 #68
Second Chance 28.1% #88 0.97 #96 0.27 #83
Turnovers 16.5% #213
Total Defense +2.6 #97

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #163 -2.3% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.1% #239 -3.9% #101
Possession Length 17.5 #198 17.9 #282
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #305 0.13 #46
Improvement -1.6 #277 -0.5 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 11.9% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.0
.500 or above 97.6% 99.5% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 98.5% 90.4%
Conference Champion 8.0% 11.5% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.7% 11.9% 8.8%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 34 - 59 - 11
Quad 411 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 209 UNC Asheville W 75 - 58 85% +4  1 - 0 +11 +2 F A+ F +10 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 8 338 Prairie View W 105 - 62 96% +18  2 - 0 +28 +17 B+ B A+ +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 270 Loyola Chicago W 95 - 74 90% +14  3 - 0 +12 +24 C+ A+ A+ -11 F A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 59 @Boise St. L 59 - 62 25% -4  3 - 1 +9 -2 F A- C- +11 A+ B- C
 Sat, Nov 22 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75 - 58 90% +1  4 - 1 +8 +0 D D A +9 A C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 41 St. Mary's L 65 - 70 24% -3  4 - 2 +7 +0 D+ C D- +7 A+ B+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 102 Colorado St. L 70 - 76 51% -10  4 - 3 -1 +10 F A+ B -13 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 158 Western Kentucky L 70 - 75 69% -1  4 - 4 -5 +6 D+ B- A- -12 D B- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 110 @Northern Iowa W 74 - 69 OT 44% +2  5 - 4 +12 +8 A- B+ D +3 C+ A D-
 Sat, Dec 13 94 DePaul L 58 - 61 59% -1  5 - 5 -0 -5 D C B +4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 199 Wofford W 84 - 73 84% +7  6 - 5 +6 +11 B B- A- -5 C+ F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 266 Eastern Kentucky W 88 - 57 90% +22  7 - 5 +22 +11 C- A+ A +12 A A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 119 @UAB W 75 - 70 47% -6  8 - 5 1 - 0 +11 +11 C+ A+ C +1 B- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 156 @Charlotte L 100 - 104 2OT 58% +4  8 - 6 1 - 1 -1 +20 B- A+ C+ -20 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 226 Rice L 64 - 66 86% -2  8 - 7 1 - 2 -9 -9 F F+ A+ -0 D+ A+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 151 North Texas W 78 - 67 76% +8  9 - 7 2 - 2 +9 +8 A+ C+ D +1 A- D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 109 @Florida Atlantic L 67 - 85 44% -15  9 - 8 2 - 3 -11 -2 F+ B- C -9 F A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 18 70 @South Florida W 86 - 85 OT 28% +1  10 - 8 3 - 3 +12 +10 B- C A+ +2 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 247 East Carolina W 77 - 60 88% +14  11 - 8 4 - 3 +9 +8 F A+ A+ +2 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 97 Memphis W 74 - 59 60% +13  12 - 8 5 - 3 +17 +4 B B- B+ +13 A+ B- B+
 Sun, Feb 1 69 @Tulsa L 83 - 93 27% -6  12 - 9 5 - 4 +1 +9 F+ A+ A+ -7 D F C
 Wed, Feb 4 156 Charlotte W 74 - 64 78% +5  13 - 9 6 - 4 +7 +1 B- D A+ +7 B A+ B
 Sun, Feb 8 173 @Tulane W 74 - 71 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 70 South Florida L 78 - 79 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 69 Tulsa L 77 - 78 50%
 Wed, Feb 18 247 @East Carolina W 75 - 68 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 143 Temple W 75 - 68 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 97 @Memphis L 70 - 73 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 343 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 67 91%
 Sat, Mar 7 109 Florida Atlantic W 77 - 73 65%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5 +2 C- A- B +3 B- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.2 4.7 2.2 8.0 1st
2nd 1.0 9.6 6.9 0.4 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 8.9 10.2 0.7 20.1 3rd
4th 0.0 3.0 11.7 1.8 16.5 4th
5th 0.5 8.1 4.8 0.1 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 7.4 0.7 10.4 6th
7th 0.4 4.1 1.9 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 2.6 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.8 9.6 20.9 27.2 22.8 12.2 2.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 83.1% 2.2    1.2 0.9 0.0
13-5 38.2% 4.7    0.6 2.4 1.5 0.2
12-6 5.0% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 1.8 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.6% 27.3% 26.2% 1.2% 11.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.9 1.6%
13-5 12.2% 17.6% 17.6% 11.6 0.8 1.2 0.1 10.1
12-6 22.8% 14.0% 14.0% 11.9 0.6 2.4 0.1 0.0 19.6
11-7 27.2% 10.4% 10.4% 12.1 0.2 2.3 0.3 24.4
10-8 20.9% 6.5% 6.5% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 19.5
9-9 9.6% 3.1% 3.1% 12.2 0.2 0.1 9.3
8-10 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
7-11 0.8% 0.8
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.7% 10.6% 0.0% 11.9 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.0 13.2 76.5 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 3.9% 11.0 3.9