South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#129
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#203
Pace69.9#121
Improvement+1.6#20

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#148
First Shot-1.2#225
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#55
Layup/Dunks+1.1#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#200
Freethrows-1.6#298
Improvement+1.6#10

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#127
First Shot+1.1#139
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#134
Layups/Dunks+1.3#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#196
Freethrows-2.5#334
Improvement+0.0#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.3 15.9
.500 or above 7.3% 18.0% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.3% 18.0% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.6% 4.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 28.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 34 - 56 - 13
Quad 48 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 251   Southeast Missouri St. L 61-64 82%     0 - 1 -10.5 -14.7 +4.2
  Nov 11, 2022 27   @ Auburn L 59-67 11%     0 - 2 +7.6 -6.4 +14.1
  Nov 14, 2022 199   Stetson L 67-68 73%     0 - 3 -5.2 +3.1 -8.6
  Nov 17, 2022 315   Austin Peay L 60-62 89%     0 - 4 -12.9 -11.3 -1.9
  Nov 21, 2022 71   UAB L 65-80 30%     0 - 5 -7.2 -2.7 -4.9
  Nov 22, 2022 162   Saint Joseph's W 75-62 58%     1 - 5 +13.3 +7.9 +6.3
  Nov 25, 2022 349   St. Francis Brooklyn W 75-60 94%     2 - 5 -0.1 -2.2 +2.4
  Nov 29, 2022 143   Massachusetts L 67-73 63%     2 - 6 -7.1 -10.3 +3.6
  Dec 02, 2022 280   Charleston Southern W 79-59 85%     3 - 6 +11.0 +6.0 +7.3
  Dec 12, 2022 160   @ Northern Iowa W 72-69 47%     4 - 6 +6.1 +1.0 +5.1
  Dec 16, 2022 275   Dartmouth W 59-55 85%     5 - 6 -4.6 -15.9 +11.3
  Dec 19, 2022 107   Hofstra W 77-70 55%     6 - 6 +8.0 +5.4 +2.8
  Dec 22, 2022 320   NJIT W 92-73 90%     7 - 6 +7.3 +15.0 -7.6
  Dec 29, 2022 38   @ Memphis L 86-93 13%     7 - 7 0 - 1 +7.2 +6.5 +1.8
  Jan 04, 2023 98   Temple L 64-68 51%     7 - 8 0 - 2 -1.9 -8.4 +6.6
  Jan 08, 2023 109   Wichita St. L 66-70 55%     7 - 9 0 - 3 -3.1 -5.6 +2.6
  Jan 11, 2023 1   @ Houston L 77-83 4%     7 - 10 0 - 4 +16.2 +18.1 -2.1
  Jan 15, 2023 205   @ East Carolina W 81-70 55%     8 - 10 1 - 4 +12.0 +11.6 +0.8
  Jan 18, 2023 56   Cincinnati L 69-85 34%     8 - 11 1 - 5 -9.5 +0.6 -10.3
  Jan 21, 2023 65   Central Florida W 85-72 37%     9 - 11 2 - 5 +18.7 +14.5 +4.0
  Jan 25, 2023 98   @ Temple L 76-79 OT 30%     9 - 12 2 - 6 +4.6 +0.3 +4.5
  Jan 29, 2023 167   @ SMU L 80-82 48%     9 - 13 2 - 7 +0.8 +4.7 -3.8
  Feb 01, 2023 205   East Carolina W 71-63 74%     10 - 13 3 - 7 +3.5 -4.8 +8.2
  Feb 08, 2023 38   Memphis L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 56   @ Cincinnati L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 15, 2023 235   @ Tulsa W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 18, 2023 77   Tulane L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 22, 2023 65   @ Central Florida L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 25, 2023 167   SMU W 73-68 68%    
  Mar 01, 2023 235   Tulsa W 76-67 80%    
  Mar 05, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. L 65-69 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.4 0.3 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 12.4 10.7 1.7 0.0 28.2 7th
8th 0.1 5.8 18.4 12.8 2.0 0.0 39.1 8th
9th 0.0 2.8 9.9 5.3 0.6 0.0 18.6 9th
10th 0.4 2.3 1.0 0.1 3.7 10th
11th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.8 5.5 16.8 27.1 26.4 16.2 5.9 1.2 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 6.3% 6.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 5.9% 1.8% 1.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 5.8
8-10 16.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.9
7-11 26.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 26.1
6-12 27.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 26.8
5-13 16.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.7
4-14 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 6.3% 12.5 1.6 4.8
Lose Out 0.8%