South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#225
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#249
Pace58.5#354
Improvement-1.7#302

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#333
First Shot-7.5#344
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#101
Layup/Dunks+0.1#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#313
Freethrows-3.8#348
Improvement-0.2#203

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#78
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#137
Layups/Dunks-0.5#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows+2.4#46
Improvement-1.5#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 n/a
.500 or above 7.5% 7.8% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 6.9% 7.1% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.9% 41.1% 56.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 8
Quad 21 - 51 - 12
Quad 33 - 54 - 18
Quad 47 - 211 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 345   Bethune-Cookman W 75-54 89%     1 - 0 +4.6 -2.9 +8.5
  Nov 13, 2021 176   Georgia Southern L 41-53 54%     1 - 1 -15.8 -22.8 +4.3
  Nov 15, 2021 281   N.C. A&T W 56-54 74%     2 - 1 -7.4 -16.1 +8.8
  Nov 19, 2021 21   Auburn L 52-58 7%     2 - 2 +7.9 -10.4 +17.8
  Nov 24, 2021 338   Hampton W 58-52 88%     3 - 2 -9.6 -13.4 +4.6
  Nov 29, 2021 125   @ Boston College L 49-64 21%     3 - 3 -9.3 -12.1 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2021 354   South Carolina St. W 72-54 95%    
  Dec 14, 2021 259   Austin Peay W 62-56 69%    
  Dec 18, 2021 14   Florida L 51-69 5%    
  Dec 22, 2021 20   BYU L 52-69 6%    
  Dec 29, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 76-51 99%    
  Jan 01, 2022 178   East Carolina W 61-60 54%    
  Jan 05, 2022 7   Houston L 48-65 6%    
  Jan 08, 2022 168   @ Tulane L 55-61 31%    
  Jan 12, 2022 99   @ SMU L 57-68 17%    
  Jan 15, 2022 65   Central Florida L 56-63 27%    
  Jan 18, 2022 7   @ Houston L 45-68 2%    
  Jan 22, 2022 150   Temple L 60-61 47%    
  Jan 26, 2022 99   SMU L 60-65 35%    
  Jan 29, 2022 142   @ Tulsa L 55-63 25%    
  Feb 03, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 53-66 13%    
  Feb 09, 2022 55   Cincinnati L 54-62 24%    
  Feb 12, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. L 50-64 11%    
  Feb 15, 2022 168   Tulane W 59-58 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 142   Tulsa L 58-60 45%    
  Feb 23, 2022 178   @ East Carolina L 58-63 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati L 51-65 11%    
  Mar 03, 2022 23   Memphis L 55-69 11%    
  Mar 06, 2022 150   @ Temple L 57-64 28%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.2 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.6 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.6 2.2 0.2 9.1 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 6.3 2.7 0.3 12.4 8th
9th 0.5 3.6 6.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 5.0 8.9 5.2 0.7 0.0 21.8 10th
11th 1.9 5.8 10.0 8.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 30.0 11th
Total 1.9 5.9 11.8 13.5 16.4 15.3 12.8 9.2 6.1 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 17.5% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 0.9% 0.9
10-8 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
9-9 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 3.5
8-10 6.1% 6.1
7-11 9.2% 9.2
6-12 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-13 15.3% 15.3
4-14 16.4% 16.4
3-15 13.5% 13.5
2-16 11.8% 11.8
1-17 5.9% 5.9
0-18 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%