South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#86
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#116
Pace79.1#14
Improvement-2.0#323

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#75
First Shot-2.0#231
After Offensive Rebound+6.2#5
Layup/Dunks+2.9#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
Freethrows+0.8#138
Improvement-2.4#344

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#108
First Shot+2.0#105
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#183
Layups/Dunks+1.3#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#155
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement+0.4#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 22.4% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.8 11.6 12.0
.500 or above 85.1% 92.7% 79.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 90.7% 84.6%
Conference Champion 22.1% 26.4% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round18.7% 22.1% 16.4%
Second Round4.1% 5.3% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 23 - 53 - 9
Quad 38 - 311 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 344 Florida A&M W 102-67 96%     1 - 0 +20.5 +9.9 +6.2
  Sat, Nov 8 61 George Washington L 95-99 40%     1 - 1 +5.0 +5.8 -0.2
  Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100-50 98%     2 - 1 +30.2 +21.3 +9.9
  Sun, Nov 16 162 @Kennesaw St. W 108-89 64%     3 - 1 +21.6 +21.5 -2.2
  Wed, Nov 19 50 @Oklahoma St. L 95-103 23%     3 - 2 +6.0 +14.6 -7.5
  Wed, Nov 26 46 Virginia Commonwealth L 66-78 32%     3 - 3 -0.7 -1.8 +1.4
  Thu, Nov 27 123 Western Kentucky W 97-91 OT 63%     4 - 3 +8.9 +3.4 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 28 75 Colorado St. L 68-83 45%     4 - 4 -7.5 -4.0 -3.7
  Thu, Dec 4 43 Utah St. L 81-83 41%    
  Wed, Dec 10 177 College of Charleston W 85-74 84%    
  Wed, Dec 17 11 @Alabama L 83-99 7%    
  Sun, Dec 21 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 87-71 93%    
  Tue, Jan 6 113 UAB W 85-79 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 148 @North Texas W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 93 @Tulsa L 78-80 42%    
  Wed, Jan 14 249 East Carolina W 86-72 90%    
  Sun, Jan 18 98 Wichita St. W 80-76 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 113 @UAB L 81-82 49%    
  Sun, Jan 25 127 Florida Atlantic W 84-77 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 169 @Tulane W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 154 @Temple W 85-82 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 270 Texas San Antonio W 88-73 91%    
  Sun, Feb 8 93 Tulsa W 81-77 63%    
  Wed, Feb 11 98 @Wichita St. L 77-79 43%    
  Sun, Feb 15 127 @Florida Atlantic W 81-80 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 74 Memphis W 82-80 56%    
  Wed, Feb 25 216 @Rice W 80-73 72%    
  Sun, Mar 1 169 Tulane W 86-76 82%    
  Thu, Mar 5 74 @Memphis L 79-83 36%    
  Sun, Mar 8 189 Charlotte W 81-70 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.2 6.2 3.8 1.5 0.4 22.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.4 6.9 4.2 1.0 0.1 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.9 6.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 6.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.5 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 6.0 9.3 11.5 14.0 14.9 13.6 10.8 7.2 3.9 1.5 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 97.2% 3.8    3.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 85.9% 6.2    4.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 57.5% 6.2    3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 23.4% 3.2    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 14.0 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 65.2% 47.3% 17.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 33.9%
17-1 1.5% 53.1% 43.8% 9.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7 16.5%
16-2 3.9% 42.3% 39.8% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.2%
15-3 7.2% 37.5% 36.2% 1.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 4.5 2.0%
14-4 10.8% 29.6% 29.4% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.6 0.3%
13-5 13.6% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.3 0.1%
12-6 14.9% 20.3% 20.3% 12.1 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 11.9
11-7 14.0% 14.4% 14.4% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 12.0
10-8 11.5% 8.7% 8.7% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.5
9-9 9.3% 5.3% 5.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8
8-10 6.0% 3.6% 3.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-11 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.5
6-12 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.9% 18.5% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 5.6 9.2 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 81.1 0.5%