Tulsa
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#142
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#170
Pace64.7#291
Improvement+0.7#123

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#117
First Shot+1.6#132
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#153
Layup/Dunks+1.7#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#191
Freethrows-2.0#294
Improvement+1.3#55

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot-2.4#262
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#57
Layups/Dunks+1.6#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#346
Freethrows+2.3#53
Improvement-0.6#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.6 11.3
.500 or above 32.2% 51.0% 26.7%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 36.6% 25.2%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 8.1% 13.8%
First Four0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 2.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 22 - 53 - 11
Quad 35 - 59 - 16
Quad 46 - 215 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 344   Northwestern St. W 82-75 94%     1 - 0 -9.4 -2.7 -6.9
  Nov 13, 2021 256   Air Force L 58-59 83%     1 - 1 -9.4 -9.5 +0.0
  Nov 15, 2021 127   Oregon St. W 64-58 59%     2 - 1 +5.5 +0.4 +5.9
  Nov 20, 2021 78   Rhode Island W 77-71 31%     3 - 1 +12.9 +14.3 -1.0
  Nov 21, 2021 57   Utah L 58-72 27%     3 - 2 -6.0 -5.8 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2021 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-63 86%     4 - 2 +4.1 +1.3 +2.9
  Nov 29, 2021 170   @ Oral Roberts L 80-87 46%     4 - 3 -4.2 +5.6 -9.9
  Dec 03, 2021 79   @ Boise St. L 62-70 23%    
  Dec 07, 2021 130   Loyola Marymount W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 11, 2021 154   Southern Illinois W 66-62 65%    
  Dec 16, 2021 315   Alcorn St. W 74-60 90%    
  Dec 17, 2021 42   Colorado St. L 69-78 21%    
  Dec 21, 2021 108   North Texas L 60-62 41%    
  Dec 29, 2021 99   SMU L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 04, 2022 23   @ Memphis L 64-79 9%    
  Jan 08, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 12, 2022 150   Temple W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 15, 2022 7   Houston L 58-71 13%    
  Jan 20, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati L 62-72 20%    
  Jan 23, 2022 23   Memphis L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 26, 2022 168   @ Tulane L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 29, 2022 225   South Florida W 63-55 75%    
  Feb 01, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. L 61-71 20%    
  Feb 05, 2022 150   @ Temple L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 08, 2022 178   East Carolina W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 55   Cincinnati L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 19, 2022 225   @ South Florida W 60-58 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 99   @ SMU L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 178   @ East Carolina L 69-70 48%    
  Mar 02, 2022 53   Wichita St. L 64-68 37%    
  Mar 06, 2022 65   Central Florida L 67-70 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 7.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.7 3.9 0.5 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 6.4 4.4 0.8 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.5 7.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.4 2.4 6.5 4.8 0.8 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.6 1.2 0.1 7.0 11th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.6 8.9 11.9 15.5 13.7 13.2 10.7 7.1 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 61.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 25.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.1    0.1
12-6 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.2% 37.1% 12.4% 24.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.2%
14-4 0.6% 19.0% 19.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 19.0%
13-5 1.6% 10.9% 6.8% 4.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4%
12-6 3.0% 7.7% 3.6% 4.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8 4.3%
11-7 4.7% 2.8% 2.4% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.5%
10-8 7.1% 3.0% 2.1% 0.9% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.9 0.9%
9-9 10.7% 1.0% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.6
8-10 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
7-11 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 15.5% 15.5
5-13 11.9% 11.9
4-14 8.9% 8.9
3-15 5.6% 5.6
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.8 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%