Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#80
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#37
Pace67.6#230
Improvement+0.2#165

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#45
First Shot+4.8#64
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#53
Layup/Dunks-1.1#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#24
Freethrows+2.9#30
Improvement+0.2#159

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#161
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#145
Layups/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#308
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 21.6% 16.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 2.2% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.8
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 93.3% 87.5%
Conference Champion 29.4% 29.9% 19.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
First Round20.6% 20.9% 15.6%
Second Round4.9% 5.0% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 24 - 34 - 4
Quad 310 - 314 - 7
Quad 410 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 115 Rhode Island W 82-65 64%     1 - 0 +20.3 +18.5 +3.1
  Wed, Nov 12 299 @Oral Roberts W 88-87 86%     2 - 0 -3.5 +8.8 -12.3
  Mon, Nov 17 58 @Kansas St. L 83-84 31%     2 - 1 +11.0 +8.4 +2.7
  Fri, Nov 21 195 Austin Peay W 84-75 87%     3 - 1 +3.8 +13.8 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 25 196 San Jose St. W 81-51 81%     4 - 1 +27.7 +17.2 +14.8
  Wed, Nov 26 96 Northern Iowa W 63-60 55%     5 - 1 +8.6 +4.7 +4.3
  Sat, Dec 6 264 Missouri St. W 98-74 92%     6 - 1 +15.4 +26.4 -9.9
  Wed, Dec 10 352 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117-84 97%     7 - 1 +17.2 +26.7 -12.5
  Sat, Dec 13 125 New Mexico St. W 83-70 68%     8 - 1 +15.2 +11.5 +3.7
  Fri, Dec 19 144 @Western Kentucky W 82-81 61%     9 - 1 +5.2 +10.5 -5.3
  Mon, Dec 22 303 Denver W 90-72 95%    
  Wed, Dec 31 230 Rice W 81-67 91%    
  Sun, Jan 4 148 @North Texas W 70-67 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 79 South Florida W 83-80 61%    
  Wed, Jan 14 185 @Charlotte W 76-70 70%    
  Sun, Jan 18 106 @UAB L 78-79 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 74 Memphis W 77-75 59%    
  Sun, Jan 25 230 @Rice W 78-70 78%    
  Wed, Jan 28 148 North Texas W 73-64 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 97 Wichita St. W 76-72 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 116 @Florida Atlantic W 80-79 53%    
  Sun, Feb 8 79 @South Florida L 80-83 39%    
  Wed, Feb 11 106 UAB W 81-75 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 97 @Wichita St. L 73-75 44%    
  Wed, Feb 18 185 Charlotte W 79-67 85%    
  Sun, Feb 22 294 Texas San Antonio W 85-68 94%    
  Wed, Feb 25 193 @Tulane W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Mar 5 258 @East Carolina W 79-70 80%    
  Sun, Mar 8 147 Temple W 83-74 79%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.7 8.8 6.0 2.4 0.6 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.1 7.9 5.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 6.9 3.8 0.5 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.6 9.6 12.6 15.4 15.5 13.8 10.6 6.1 2.4 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 97.1% 6.0    5.3 0.6 0.0
15-3 83.7% 8.8    6.3 2.4 0.2
14-4 56.3% 7.7    3.6 3.4 0.8 0.0
13-5 22.0% 3.4    0.7 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 18.8 8.1 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 79.5% 50.3% 29.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 58.8%
17-1 2.4% 59.4% 41.0% 18.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.0 31.2%
16-2 6.1% 42.7% 34.9% 7.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.4 3.5 11.9%
15-3 10.6% 36.0% 32.7% 3.3% 11.2 0.0 0.2 2.7 1.0 6.8 5.0%
14-4 13.8% 28.3% 27.0% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.1 9.9 1.9%
13-5 15.5% 23.1% 22.5% 0.5% 11.7 1.3 2.2 0.1 11.9 0.7%
12-6 15.4% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.2 12.8 0.0%
11-7 12.6% 12.3% 12.3% 12.0 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.0
10-8 9.6% 8.3% 8.3% 12.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.8
9-9 6.6% 5.6% 5.6% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 6.2
8-10 3.6% 4.2% 4.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5
7-11 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.3% 19.6% 1.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 9.1 9.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.7 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.3 3.6 9.5 19.0 29.8 20.2 4.8 4.8 4.8 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 54.8% 9.7 3.2 6.5 12.9 12.9 19.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 71.1% 9.7 2.6 10.5 13.2 18.4 26.3