Tulsa
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#235
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#279
Pace69.7#127
Improvement-0.3#229

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#219
First Shot-0.4#198
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#250
Layup/Dunks+0.3#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#128
Freethrows-2.7#344
Improvement+0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#248
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#322
Layups/Dunks-3.5#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#92
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement-0.4#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 79.6% 65.2% 86.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 80 - 12
Quad 32 - 72 - 19
Quad 45 - 37 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 185   @ Oregon St. L 70-73 29%     0 - 1 -1.1 -1.5 +0.4
  Nov 12, 2022 327   Jackson St. W 85-79 79%     1 - 1 -6.2 -3.0 -3.9
  Nov 17, 2022 220   Loyola Chicago W 85-66 45%     2 - 1 +16.5 +8.1 +7.8
  Nov 18, 2022 110   Charlotte L 65-68 24%     2 - 2 +0.6 +4.8 -4.8
  Nov 20, 2022 159   Murray St. L 60-77 34%     2 - 3 -16.6 -17.3 +1.6
  Nov 25, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 56-82 5%     2 - 4 -11.3 -8.3 -1.7
  Dec 03, 2022 69   Oral Roberts L 66-77 19%     2 - 5 -5.5 -9.4 +4.2
  Dec 07, 2022 222   Detroit Mercy L 72-76 57%     2 - 6 -9.6 -7.3 -2.4
  Dec 10, 2022 299   Central Michigan W 70-63 74%     3 - 6 -3.4 -6.4 +3.0
  Dec 16, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 66-51 93%     4 - 6 -4.9 -9.8 +6.0
  Dec 21, 2022 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-76 13%     4 - 7 -3.8 -2.9 -1.3
  Dec 28, 2022 1   Houston L 50-89 4%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -22.3 -10.8 -13.9
  Jan 01, 2023 167   @ SMU L 67-92 26%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -22.2 -0.4 -22.6
  Jan 04, 2023 77   @ Tulane L 77-93 11%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -6.4 +1.9 -7.1
  Jan 10, 2023 98   Temple L 72-76 29%     4 - 11 0 - 4 -1.9 +2.0 -4.0
  Jan 14, 2023 109   @ Wichita St. L 69-73 17%     4 - 12 0 - 5 +2.4 +2.2 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2023 167   SMU L 76-79 OT 46%     4 - 13 0 - 6 -5.6 -4.9 -0.4
  Jan 21, 2023 77   Tulane W 81-79 OT 23%     5 - 13 1 - 6 +6.2 -1.6 +7.5
  Jan 24, 2023 205   @ East Carolina L 66-76 32%     5 - 14 1 - 7 -9.0 +2.0 -12.3
  Jan 29, 2023 38   Memphis L 68-80 13%     5 - 15 1 - 8 -3.3 +0.4 -3.9
  Feb 01, 2023 56   @ Cincinnati L 55-81 8%     5 - 16 1 - 9 -14.0 -9.9 -5.0
  Feb 05, 2023 109   Wichita St. L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 08, 2023 1   @ Houston L 54-80 1%    
  Feb 11, 2023 65   @ Central Florida L 60-75 8%    
  Feb 15, 2023 129   South Florida L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 19, 2023 98   @ Temple L 64-75 14%    
  Feb 21, 2023 205   East Carolina W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 26, 2023 65   Central Florida L 63-72 20%    
  Mar 01, 2023 129   @ South Florida L 67-76 20%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 3 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 3.5 4.0 0.4 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 1.8 12.6 12.7 1.9 0.0 29.0 10th
11th 11.2 27.2 18.6 2.9 0.0 59.9 11th
Total 11.2 29.0 31.2 19.2 7.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.2
3-15 31.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 31.2
2-16 29.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 29.0
1-17 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0