Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#221
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#318
Pace69.0#192
Improvement-0.4#213

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#149
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#25
Layup/Dunks+0.7#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
Freethrows-1.4#271
Improvement-0.2#210

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#280
First Shot-5.0#319
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#72
Layups/Dunks+1.3#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#320
Freethrows-1.8#287
Improvement-0.1#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 14.8
.500 or above 25.6% 31.0% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.9% 40.1% 28.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 8.8% 13.8%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 1.9% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 84 - 12
Quad 49 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 201   @ New Mexico L 92-99 36%     0 - 1 -5.8 +8.2 -13.2
  Nov 16, 2021 120   Miami (FL) L 66-68 40%     0 - 2 -2.0 -7.7 +5.6
  Nov 19, 2021 346   Tennessee Martin W 75-67 90%     1 - 2 -8.5 -6.8 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2021 330   North Dakota W 98-79 86%     2 - 2 +5.1 +18.2 -12.7
  Nov 22, 2021 240   Troy L 78-83 OT 67%     2 - 3 -12.1 -3.9 -7.6
  Nov 28, 2021 163   James Madison L 65-69 51%     2 - 4 -6.8 -1.0 -6.2
  Dec 01, 2021 268   Stetson W 74-68 72%    
  Dec 05, 2021 288   North Florida W 78-71 75%    
  Dec 15, 2021 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-71 13%    
  Dec 21, 2021 282   @ High Point W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 30, 2021 223   Charlotte W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 01, 2022 228   Old Dominion W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 08, 2022 114   @ Marshall L 77-86 22%    
  Jan 13, 2022 183   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-73 33%    
  Jan 15, 2022 51   @ UAB L 65-79 10%    
  Jan 20, 2022 126   Western Kentucky L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 22, 2022 114   Marshall L 80-83 40%    
  Jan 27, 2022 162   @ UTEP L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 300   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 03, 2022 109   Louisiana Tech L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 247   Southern Miss W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 10, 2022 126   @ Western Kentucky L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 17, 2022 108   North Texas L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 19, 2022 183   Middle Tennessee W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 228   @ Old Dominion L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 223   @ Charlotte L 67-70 39%    
  Mar 03, 2022 226   @ Florida International L 67-70 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 226   Florida International W 70-67 61%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 4.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.6 0.3 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.7 0.4 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 4.1 1.8 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 4.5 2.3 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.7 0.4 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.6 1.1 9.8 10th
11th 0.4 3.0 5.1 1.9 0.1 10.6 11th
12th 0.6 2.3 4.1 2.3 0.3 9.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.7 2.0 0.4 8.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.3 5.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.0 4.1 7.5 10.1 12.2 13.4 12.8 11.7 9.8 5.9 4.7 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 76.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 80.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 30.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.3% 7.8% 7.8% 12.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.5% 20.2% 20.2% 13.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.4% 12.1% 12.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-5 2.5% 10.2% 10.2% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-6 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
11-7 5.9% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.7
10-8 9.8% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.6
9-9 11.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.5
8-10 12.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 12.7
7-11 13.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.3
6-12 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-13 10.1% 10.1
4-14 7.5% 7.5
3-15 4.1% 4.1
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 98.3 0.0%