Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#52
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#6
Pace69.3#141
Improvement-0.2#208

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#46
First Shot+4.6#56
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#110
Layup/Dunks+1.9#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#17
Freethrows-1.1#265
Improvement-0.4#268

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#63
First Shot+4.4#56
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#183
Layups/Dunks+5.9#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#52
Freethrows+1.3#82
Improvement+0.2#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.8% 16.2% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 34.7% 51.4% 20.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.2% 92.6% 82.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.3% 87.4% 73.1%
Average Seed 7.3 6.5 8.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.4% 99.5% 97.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.0% 2.4% 7.3%
First Round84.3% 91.3% 78.5%
Second Round41.6% 49.5% 34.9%
Sweet Sixteen13.4% 17.2% 10.3%
Elite Eight4.3% 5.6% 3.3%
Final Four1.4% 1.8% 1.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 0
Quad 23 - 25 - 2
Quad 39 - 114 - 3
Quad 411 - 026 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 95   @ Mississippi L 67-80 58%     0 - 1 -5.3 +3.8 -10.0
  Nov 14, 2022 40   @ Florida W 76-74 34%     1 - 1 +16.0 +8.5 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2022 195   Bryant W 85-74 90%     2 - 1 +6.9 -6.7 +11.8
  Nov 19, 2022 222   Detroit Mercy W 76-55 92%     3 - 1 +15.4 -1.0 +17.4
  Nov 26, 2022 336   @ Albany W 73-56 94%     4 - 1 +9.1 +0.8 +9.5
  Nov 30, 2022 182   South Alabama W 84-59 89%     5 - 1 +21.8 +12.1 +10.1
  Dec 04, 2022 302   @ Eastern Michigan W 101-73 91%     6 - 1 +23.0 +18.8 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2022 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 85-53 88%     7 - 1 +29.3 +22.6 +11.3
  Dec 17, 2022 226   Florida International W 79-53 92%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +20.2 -1.9 +20.4
  Dec 21, 2022 210   Northern Kentucky W 67-52 91%     9 - 1 +10.2 -0.2 +11.7
  Dec 29, 2022 80   @ North Texas W 50-46 52%     10 - 1 2 - 0 +13.3 -5.8 +20.0
  Jan 05, 2023 71   UAB W 88-86 68%     11 - 1 3 - 0 +7.1 +13.6 -6.6
  Jan 07, 2023 110   Charlotte W 71-67 80%     12 - 1 4 - 0 +4.8 +11.9 -6.3
  Jan 11, 2023 226   @ Florida International W 77-73 OT 83%     13 - 1 5 - 0 +3.7 +1.3 +2.3
  Jan 14, 2023 80   North Texas W 66-62 72%     14 - 1 6 - 0 +7.9 +14.9 -5.9
  Jan 16, 2023 163   @ Western Kentucky W 76-62 74%     15 - 1 7 - 0 +17.0 +3.9 +13.0
  Jan 19, 2023 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 83-64 92%     16 - 1 8 - 0 +13.6 +5.4 +8.0
  Jan 21, 2023 175   @ UTEP W 67-59 76%     17 - 1 9 - 0 +10.6 -2.4 +12.6
  Jan 26, 2023 121   Middle Tennessee W 85-67 82%     18 - 1 10 - 0 +17.9 +15.8 +2.6
  Jan 28, 2023 163   Western Kentucky W 70-63 87%     19 - 1 11 - 0 +4.6 -5.8 +10.2
  Feb 02, 2023 71   @ UAB L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 04, 2023 110   @ Charlotte W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 09, 2023 170   Rice W 83-70 89%    
  Feb 11, 2023 137   Louisiana Tech W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 16, 2023 121   @ Middle Tennessee W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 23, 2023 312   Texas San Antonio W 83-62 98%    
  Feb 25, 2023 175   UTEP W 71-58 89%    
  Mar 02, 2023 170   @ Rice W 80-73 73%    
  Mar 04, 2023 137   @ Louisiana Tech W 74-69 68%    
Projected Record 26 - 3 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 11.2 23.1 30.1 22.4 7.7 98.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.1 11.6 23.1 30.1 22.4 7.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.7    7.7
19-1 100.0% 22.4    22.4
18-2 100.0% 30.1    30.1
17-3 100.0% 23.1    22.2 0.9
16-4 96.4% 11.2    9.6 1.6
15-5 83.9% 3.5    2.3 1.1 0.0
14-6 54.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 18.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 98.4% 98.4 94.4 3.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.7% 98.7% 48.3% 50.4% 4.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.5%
19-1 22.4% 96.5% 43.9% 52.5% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.9 7.1 3.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 93.7%
18-2 30.1% 91.4% 38.7% 52.7% 7.3 0.0 0.5 2.3 6.4 6.7 5.1 4.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.6 85.9%
17-3 23.1% 83.5% 34.8% 48.7% 8.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 3.5 5.5 4.4 1.8 0.0 3.8 74.7%
16-4 11.6% 72.2% 30.3% 41.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.1 2.4 0.1 3.2 60.1%
15-5 4.1% 60.1% 27.6% 32.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.1 1.6 44.9%
14-6 0.9% 39.2% 20.9% 18.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 23.1%
13-7 0.1% 21.4% 18.6% 2.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5%
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 87.2% 38.1% 49.1% 7.3 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.3 10.3 15.7 13.0 10.5 12.3 10.3 6.1 0.3 12.8 79.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.7% 98.7% 4.2 0.6 4.3 19.6 39.9 24.0 9.2 1.2 0.1