Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#33
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#41
Pace68.9#167
Improvement-4.5#337

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#14
First Shot+7.3#24
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#61
Layup/Dunks+5.1#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#76
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement-1.3#257

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#99
First Shot+2.3#106
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows+1.5#74
Improvement-3.3#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.9% 5.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 20.7% 35.1% 2.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.9% 90.3% 75.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.6% 85.6% 65.8%
Average Seed 8.0 7.3 9.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 26.0% 38.3% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.3% 4.3% 11.0%
First Round80.4% 88.4% 70.3%
Second Round44.5% 52.1% 34.8%
Sweet Sixteen13.9% 17.8% 9.0%
Elite Eight5.1% 6.3% 3.5%
Final Four1.7% 2.2% 1.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 13 - 2
Quad 26 - 39 - 5
Quad 38 - 217 - 7
Quad 47 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 95   Loyola Chicago W 75-62 72%     1 - 0 +18.9 +7.7 +11.2
  Nov 14, 2023 329   Eastern Michigan W 100-57 98%     2 - 0 +30.0 +27.2 +5.6
  Nov 18, 2023 181   Bryant L 52-61 92%     2 - 1 -12.9 -21.3 +8.7
  Nov 23, 2023 56   Butler W 91-86 60%     3 - 1 +14.4 +20.8 -6.4
  Nov 24, 2023 58   Texas A&M W 96-89 61%     4 - 1 +16.2 +31.2 -14.7
  Nov 26, 2023 57   Virginia Tech W 84-50 61%     5 - 1 +43.3 +12.4 +30.1
  Nov 30, 2023 121   Liberty W 83-58 86%     6 - 1 +25.4 +18.5 +9.5
  Dec 02, 2023 109   College of Charleston W 90-74 83%     7 - 1 +17.7 +12.8 +4.4
  Dec 05, 2023 11   Illinois L 89-98 34%     7 - 2 +7.3 +13.8 -5.8
  Dec 13, 2023 273   Florida International W 94-60 96%     8 - 2 +25.8 +14.3 +10.5
  Dec 16, 2023 87   St. Bonaventure W 64-54 71%     9 - 2 +16.5 -5.9 +22.4
  Dec 23, 2023 4   Arizona W 96-95 2OT 22%     10 - 2 +21.1 +12.1 +8.8
  Dec 30, 2023 230   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-72 88%     10 - 3 -4.8 -0.5 -4.6
  Jan 02, 2024 158   East Carolina W 79-64 91%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +12.5 +17.3 -2.7
  Jan 06, 2024 112   @ Charlotte L 68-70 70%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +4.7 +6.5 -2.0
  Jan 11, 2024 120   @ Tulane W 85-84 72%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +6.9 +9.9 -3.0
  Jan 14, 2024 117   UAB W 86-73 85%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +14.0 +9.3 +4.4
  Jan 18, 2024 148   Wichita St. W 86-77 90%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +7.3 +14.5 -7.2
  Jan 21, 2024 269   @ Texas San Antonio W 112-103 OT 91%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +6.4 +17.9 -12.9
  Jan 24, 2024 178   @ Rice W 69-56 83%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +14.8 -0.6 +16.2
  Jan 28, 2024 93   North Texas W 66-63 79%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +6.4 +8.4 -1.5
  Feb 03, 2024 186   Tulsa W 102-70 93%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +27.8 +17.2 +7.0
  Feb 08, 2024 117   @ UAB L 73-76 OT 71%     18 - 5 8 - 2 +3.4 -0.6 +4.1
  Feb 11, 2024 148   @ Wichita St. W 95-82 OT 79%     19 - 5 9 - 2 +16.8 +15.4 -0.1
  Feb 15, 2024 206   Temple W 80-68 94%     20 - 5 10 - 2 +6.5 +12.5 -5.0
  Feb 18, 2024 102   @ South Florida L 86-90 66%     20 - 6 10 - 3 +4.0 +15.8 -11.8
  Feb 22, 2024 43   SMU W 80-70 66%     21 - 6 11 - 3 +17.9 +13.2 +5.0
  Feb 25, 2024 71   @ Memphis W 82-80 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 120   Tulane W 90-78 87%    
  Mar 06, 2024 93   @ North Texas W 67-64 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 71   Memphis W 85-78 77%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 10.5 15.2 26.0 1st
2nd 0.4 13.2 30.3 9.2 53.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.8 10.9 13.7 3rd
4th 0.2 4.1 2.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.7 7.7 26.4 40.9 24.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 62.4% 15.2    6.2 9.0
14-4 25.7% 10.5    0.4 3.6 4.9 1.6
13-5 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 26.0% 26.0 6.6 12.6 5.0 1.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 24.4% 98.6% 35.4% 63.2% 5.7 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.5 8.3 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 97.8%
14-4 40.9% 88.9% 31.6% 57.3% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 11.0 11.2 6.3 0.6 4.5 83.8%
13-5 26.4% 73.6% 27.7% 45.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 9.6 2.8 0.0 7.0 63.5%
12-6 7.7% 50.9% 25.7% 25.3% 10.4 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.7 0.0 3.8 34.0%
11-7 0.7% 28.1% 22.5% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 7.2%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 83.9% 31.0% 52.9% 8.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.7 10.1 9.5 13.8 16.7 17.9 5.2 0.0 16.1 76.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.4% 98.6% 5.7 0.0 1.2 10.7 30.6 34.1 16.9 4.1 0.9 0.1
Lose Out 0.7% 28.1% 10.9 4.3 22.5 1.3