North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#80
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#120
Pace53.8#362
Improvement+0.2#163

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#178
First Shot-1.5#217
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#99
Layup/Dunks-4.6#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#141
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement-1.7#321

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#27
First Shot+9.6#5
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#334
Layups/Dunks+8.6#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#72
Freethrows-0.7#241
Improvement+1.9#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 11.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.6% 4.6% 0.4%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 12.1
.500 or above 87.0% 87.3% 36.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.8% 80.0% 45.4%
Conference Champion 8.0% 8.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
First Four1.9% 1.9% 0.4%
First Round10.8% 10.8% 8.5%
Second Round3.9% 4.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 36 - 310 - 10
Quad 47 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 110   Northern Iowa W 83-77 OT 71%     1 - 0 +7.0 +7.8 -1.0
  Nov 11, 2023 284   Nebraska Omaha W 75-64 92%     2 - 0 +1.6 +11.5 -7.6
  Nov 16, 2023 58   St. John's L 52-53 41%     2 - 1 +8.1 -13.1 +21.1
  Nov 17, 2023 90   LSU L 62-66 53%     2 - 2 +1.9 -0.4 +1.8
  Nov 19, 2023 199   Towson W 65-39 79%     3 - 2 +24.2 +2.3 +26.1
  Dec 02, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 71-42 99%    
  Dec 05, 2023 76   @ Boise St. L 56-59 40%    
  Dec 10, 2023 171   Fordham W 61-54 74%    
  Dec 17, 2023 33   Mississippi St. L 53-59 29%    
  Dec 23, 2023 190   Texas Arlington W 65-54 85%    
  Jan 04, 2024 92   @ Wichita St. L 59-61 43%    
  Jan 06, 2024 95   Tulane W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 13, 2024 144   Temple W 64-56 78%    
  Jan 17, 2024 209   @ East Carolina W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 119   @ Charlotte W 53-52 52%    
  Jan 25, 2024 94   SMU W 62-58 65%    
  Jan 28, 2024 18   @ Florida Atlantic L 56-67 18%    
  Jan 31, 2024 115   UAB W 65-59 71%    
  Feb 03, 2024 164   South Florida W 63-53 79%    
  Feb 07, 2024 188   @ Tulsa W 61-56 67%    
  Feb 11, 2024 94   @ SMU L 59-61 44%    
  Feb 15, 2024 32   Memphis L 61-64 42%    
  Feb 18, 2024 115   @ UAB W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 24, 2024 305   Texas San Antonio W 72-54 94%    
  Feb 28, 2024 95   @ Tulane L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 03, 2024 209   East Carolina W 68-56 86%    
  Mar 06, 2024 18   Florida Atlantic L 59-64 34%    
  Mar 09, 2024 246   @ Rice W 68-60 76%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.1 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 4.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.6 5.3 1.3 0.2 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.1 4.8 1.2 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.3 1.0 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 4.6 1.6 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 4.6 1.8 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.2 2.2 0.1 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.3 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 3.2 5.7 8.5 11.3 12.9 14.4 13.4 11.9 8.1 5.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 90.2% 1.8    1.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 53.6% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 25.1% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 3.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 90.8% 25.8% 65.0% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.6%
16-2 2.0% 72.5% 23.4% 49.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 64.1%
15-3 5.1% 43.2% 19.3% 23.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.1 2.9 29.6%
14-4 8.1% 24.6% 13.6% 11.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 6.1 12.7%
13-5 11.9% 14.2% 10.1% 4.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.2 4.6%
12-6 13.4% 9.2% 8.4% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.1 0.9%
11-7 14.4% 6.6% 6.5% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.1%
10-8 12.9% 5.2% 5.2% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.2
9-9 11.3% 3.3% 3.3% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9
8-10 8.5% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.3
7-11 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.2
5-13 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.7% 7.4% 4.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 3.7 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 88.3 4.6%