North Texas
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#148
Pace57.7#356
Improvement-0.5#226

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#170
First Shot+0.8#156
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks-3.2#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#55
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement+0.3#142

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#69
First Shot+0.1#164
After Offensive Rebounds+4.0#12
Layups/Dunks+0.6#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#41
Freethrows-0.6#226
Improvement-0.8#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.7% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 77.8% 85.5% 68.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 88.5% 82.0%
Conference Champion 15.2% 17.6% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round14.4% 16.4% 12.1%
Second Round3.0% 4.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 36 - 59 - 11
Quad 49 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 72   Buffalo L 66-69 51%     0 - 1 +1.0 -3.1 +3.9
  Nov 18, 2021 234   Texas Arlington W 64-36 84%     1 - 1 +21.4 -2.1 +26.9
  Nov 25, 2021 9   Kansas L 59-71 12%     1 - 2 +5.0 -7.2 +12.0
  Nov 26, 2021 120   Miami (FL) L 63-69 55%     1 - 3 -3.0 -2.5 -1.3
  Nov 28, 2021 58   Drake W 57-54 36%     2 - 3 +10.9 +3.7 +8.0
  Dec 04, 2021 92   Nevada W 66-65 55%    
  Dec 11, 2021 116   Massachusetts W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 14, 2021 218   Sam Houston St. W 66-56 82%    
  Dec 18, 2021 53   @ Wichita St. L 56-63 25%    
  Dec 21, 2021 142   Tulsa W 62-60 59%    
  Jan 01, 2022 184   Rice W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 06, 2022 51   UAB L 61-63 45%    
  Jan 08, 2022 183   Middle Tennessee W 65-57 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 114   @ Marshall L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 15, 2022 126   @ Western Kentucky L 63-64 45%    
  Jan 20, 2022 223   Charlotte W 65-55 81%    
  Jan 22, 2022 228   Old Dominion W 62-52 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 247   @ Southern Miss W 63-57 70%    
  Jan 29, 2022 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 03, 2022 162   UTEP W 63-56 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 300   Texas San Antonio W 73-58 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 184   @ Rice W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 17, 2022 221   @ Florida Atlantic W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 19, 2022 51   @ UAB L 58-66 25%    
  Feb 24, 2022 247   Southern Miss W 66-54 86%    
  Feb 26, 2022 109   Louisiana Tech W 67-64 61%    
  Mar 03, 2022 300   @ Texas San Antonio W 70-61 78%    
  Mar 05, 2022 162   @ UTEP W 60-59 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.8 3.6 1.2 0.3 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.1 5.4 2.5 0.3 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 6.8 5.1 1.3 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.6 4.3 1.2 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.2 1.0 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.6 2.3 1.7 0.2 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 1.9 0.3 4.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.4 6.2 8.7 11.7 13.9 14.3 13.8 10.4 7.3 3.9 1.2 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.1
16-2 93.0% 3.6    3.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 65.1% 4.8    2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 35.2% 3.7    1.3 1.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 10.1% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.3
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 8.5 4.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 80.1% 41.0% 39.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 66.3%
17-1 1.2% 59.4% 48.1% 11.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 21.7%
16-2 3.9% 48.3% 41.0% 7.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 12.5%
15-3 7.3% 29.7% 27.6% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 5.2 2.9%
14-4 10.4% 23.4% 22.8% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.2 8.0 0.8%
13-5 13.8% 17.8% 17.8% 12.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 11.3
12-6 14.3% 14.7% 14.7% 13.3 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 12.2
11-7 13.9% 7.9% 7.9% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 12.8
10-8 11.7% 8.0% 8.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 10.8
9-9 8.7% 4.2% 4.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.4
8-10 6.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.0
7-11 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 2.0
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.0% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 4.6 4.4 1.9 1.3 0.3 85.3 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 3.0 30.3 30.3 36.4