North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.6 135
Results Rating +1.5 134
Consistency 0.13 51
Pace 63.3 321
Improvement +0.7 162

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 252 D C+ C B- B-
Defense B 52 B- C A D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 6 C- 56% 231 +4.8 32
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 99 F+ 30% 357 -2.0 281
Three Pointers 32% 344 F+ 28% 356 -7.2 353
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.9 76 D- -5.1 342
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 320
Second Chance B- 34.1% 75 C- 1.00 227 C+ 0.34 109
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.1% 144
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 264
Turnovers C 17.0% 199
Freethrows B 0.34 64 D+ 70% 253 B- 0.24 110
Total Offense D+ -3.1 252

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 230 B- 9.1% 84
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 159 F 12.8% 364
Three Pointers C- 82% 239 C 0.9% 186
Total D+ 51% 282 D- 7.2% 328


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 C+ 57% 153 -0.8 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 90 B 34% 39 +0.0 183
Three Pointers 39% 236 C+ 33% 116 -1.7 115
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 108 B- -2.1 93
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 96
Second Chance C- 31.5% 241 C+ 0.99 125 C 0.31 193
Turnovers from Steals A 13.2% 9
Other Turnovers B+ 8.8% 29
Turnovers A 22.0% 8
Freethrows D- 0.36 329 B- 71% 87 D 0.26 319
Total Defense B +4.7 52

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 181 C+ 12.0% 132
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 13% 6 A- 9.6% 18
Three Pointers C 84% 196 A+ 3.1% 4
Total C+ 53% 127 B+ 8.0% 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 291 17.6 240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 42 0.18 231
Consistency 0.11 75 0.11 103
Improvement +2.9 56 -2.2 293

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 153 135 117
Results Rating Rank 157 137 119
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 8 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.5
.500 or above 97% 100% 89%
.500 or above in Conference 94% 100% 77%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 48 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 279 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 85% +8  95% 1 - 0 A- +18 A+ +16 A+ A+ D+ B+ +7 C A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 280 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 78% +4  75% 2 - 0 C- -5 F+ -10 D- F F B+ +5 A+ C- C+
 Wed, Nov 12 159 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 45% +6  90% 2 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 B C F B- +3 A- B D-
 Fri, Nov 14 31 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 8% -23  4% 2 - 2 D- -13 F -14 F D A- C -0 A F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 170 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 70% +5  75% 3 - 2 B+ +14 D+ -2 F C- A A+ +17 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 173 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 71% +2  69% 4 - 2 C+ +4 D -4 F C+ C A- +8 A B+ B
 Sun, Nov 30 324 Prairie View W 72 - 69 91% -2  24% 5 - 2 D -10 F+ -9 B F F C -1 C- C- C
 Tue, Dec 2 290 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 87% +1  58% 6 - 2 D -8 B +6 A+ B- F F -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 48 TCU L 55 - 65 26% -2  24% 6 - 3 C -2 F -11 F+ C- C A +9 A F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 185 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 51% +4  79% 7 - 3 C+ +2 F -10 F B+ F A+ +13 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 43 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 16% +2  60% 7 - 4 B +9 F+ -9 F A B+ A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 118 @Memphis L 48 - 57 34% -8  0% 7 - 5 0 - 1 C- -3 F -19 F C F A+ +15 D+ B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 64 Tulsa W 72 - 67 34% -0  39% 8 - 5 1 - 1 B +11 B- +5 C A B+ B+ +7 A+ F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 54 South Florida L 70 - 74 29% -0  43% 8 - 6 1 - 2 C+ +3 C +0 B- B- C+ B- +3 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 92 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 24% -8  4% 8 - 7 1 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 F B+ C- B- +2 F B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 183 @Tulane W 71 - 63 51% +6  87% 9 - 7 2 - 3 B +9 C -0 C- D+ F A +10 A+ C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 333 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 62 93% +14  99% 10 - 7 3 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 C A+ F+ B +4 C+ A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 232 East Carolina L 59 - 63 79% -3  3% 10 - 8 3 - 4 D -11 F -13 F C- A+ B- +2 B F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 64 @Tulsa L 66 - 82 17% -4  5% 10 - 9 3 - 5 C- -4 D- -8 D- D- C- B +4 B F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 123 UAB L 68 - 72 57% -0  49% 10 - 10 3 - 6 C- -4 D+ -3 D- D A+ C- -2 F C- A+
 Wed, Feb 4 223 @Rice L 83 - 86 2OT 59% +1  45% 10 - 11 3 - 7 C- -4 D -5 F+ D+ B B- +2 A F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 333 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 58 83% +10  57% 11 - 11 4 - 7 B+ +14 C +2 D+ B+ D- A+ +13 B- B- A+
 Thu, Feb 12 118 Memphis W 76 - 69 56% -0  42% 12 - 11 5 - 7 B- +7 B- +5 D+ A+ D+ B- +2 B+ D+ A
 Sun, Feb 15 165 @Temple W 65 - 62 47% -3  24% 13 - 11 6 - 7 B- +5 D -4 F C+ A+ A +10 D- B+ A+
 Wed, Feb 18 183 Tulane W 69 - 63 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 183 Tulane L 71 - 77 73% +3  65% 13 - 12 6 - 8 D -11 C- -1 F A+ C- F+ -10 C- F C
 Sun, Feb 22 126 Florida Atlantic W 73 - 72 58% +1  53% 14 - 12 7 - 8 C +1 B- +5 C+ D B D+ -4 D A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 166 @Charlotte L 79 - 80 47% +1  48% 14 - 13 7 - 9 C +1 A- +11 A B A F+ -9 F C+ B
 Sun, Mar 1 123 @UAB W 62 - 58 34% -2  17% 15 - 13 8 - 9 B +10 D+ -3 F A+ A A+ +13 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Mar 4 223 Rice W 71 - 63 78%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 9 +2 D+ -3 F D- B- B +5 F+ D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- F+ F+ D- 49% 45% 32% B- D B- C- C+ C B D+ B- B C+ B C+ B- 38% 23% 39% C+ B- C- C+ C A D- B- D
1.04 56% 30% 28% -5 +1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 17% .34 70% .24 1.02 57% 34% 33% -2 0 0.97 31% 1.0 .31 22% .36 71% .24
Nov
6		 Northwestern St. A+ A- A A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% C+ A+ A+ B A+ D+ A+ F A- B+ A+ F A- D 16% 41% 44% A+ C F A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29 0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46
Nov
9		 Loyola Chicago F+ C+ F D+ F 50% 21% 29% B D- B+ F F F A+ B A+ B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% C A+ F+ B+ C- C+ F C F
0.97 57% 11% 33% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.5 .16 18% .50 81% .41 0.94 53% 20% 18% -16 +1 0.73 36% 0.8 .30 20% .59 68% .40
Nov
12		 Oregon St. D+ D+ A+ C C+ 56% 7% 37% A B A- F C F C D- C- B- A+ F C A 37% 9% 53% F+ A- A- D B D- F D- F
1.02 52% 67% 33% -2 +3 1.05 40% 0.8 .33 22% .33 69% .22 1.05 31% 50% 35% -8 +1 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 14% .52 82% .43
Nov
14		 St. Mary's F F F C- F 47% 17% 36% B+ F D+ F D A- C A+ B C A+ A+ D A+ 47% 13% 40% F+ A F C- F A+ F C F
0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20 1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33
Nov
20		 Central Arkansas D+ A F F F 43% 25% 32% D F B- F C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A 37% 16% 47% C A- D- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46 0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36
Nov
25		 Eastern Washington D C+ D F F 42% 17% 42% C F C- B+ C+ C A+ F A+ A- C+ A A- A 40% 26% 34% B- A D- A+ B+ B D+ D- D
1.08 60% 38% 20% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 16% .49 67% .33 0.97 55% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 0.8 .28 21% .33 79% .26
Nov
30		 Prairie View F+ A+ F A+ B 52% 20% 27% C+ B C- F F F A+ D- A C C+ C- A+ C 49% 27% 24% F C- B+ F C- C D+ F+ D-
1.02 74% 0% 50% +7 +1 1.18 34% 0.6 .21 27% .51 69% .35 0.98 54% 38% 25% -5 0 0.92 18% 1.5 .27 16% .37 82% .30
Dec
2		 Houston Christian B C+ F A+ A+ 61% 5% 34% A+ A+ C+ B B- F A+ F D+ F F C- F F 39% 18% 43% D+ F A A+ A+ F F A+ F
1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19 1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33
Dec
7		 TCU F C- F F F 59% 14% 27% A F+ F A+ C- C A- C+ B+ A C F A+ A 40% 30% 30% A A D F+ F+ A+ F A D
0.82 54% 17% 17% -13 +2 0.82 14% 1.8 .24 21% .32 71% .23 0.97 59% 46% 15% -6 -1 0.88 38% 1.2 .47 25% .44 64% .28
Dec
14		 South Alabama F C A+ F F 20% 4% 76% C+ F C A+ B+ F A F+ A- A+ A B A+ A+ 67% 14% 19% F A+ F+ F F A- F D+ F
0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22 0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28
Dec
17		 Santa Clara F+ D- B F F 61% 12% 27% A F B- A+ A B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B A+ F+ F F A+ D A+ C+
0.89 52% 40% 9% -14 +3 0.80 34% 1.3 .45 18% .49 70% .34 0.93 53% 44% 24% -7 0 0.87 43% 1.6 .70 31% .28 62% .17
Dec
31		 Memphis F D+ D+ F F 52% 13% 35% A+ F D- A C F F F F A+ D+ F A D+ 39% 24% 37% C D+ D+ A- B- A+ D+ A+ A+
0.72 54% 33% 6% -17 +2 0.72 26% 1.1 .29 27% .17 63% .10 0.86 63% 50% 27% +1 0 1.02 38% 1.0 .38 30% .32 27% .09
Jan
4		 Tulsa B- C+ F B+ C 44% 27% 29% C- C B- A+ A B+ A- A- A B+ A D A A+ 51% 16% 33% C+ A+ C F F+ A+ F D F
1.16 60% 25% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 13% .33 78% .26 1.08 45% 43% 29% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 21% .51 84% .43
Jan
7		 South Florida C B D- C+ B- 46% 26% 28% C+ B- C+ C+ B- C+ B F F+ B- C- A+ A B- 50% 11% 39% C B- C- F F A+ F C F
1.02 61% 31% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 45% .16 1.08 58% 25% 27% -6 +2 0.95 39% 1.5 .58 25% .70 75% .53
Jan
11		 Wichita St. D+ F F B+ F 60% 25% 15% A F A- C+ B+ C- A B A B- C F+ F F 52% 25% 23% D+ F D A B- A+ F D F
0.94 39% 29% 38% -13 +1 0.78 36% 1.0 .36 17% .37 73% .27 1.10 57% 45% 50% +6 0 1.16 43% 0.8 .36 25% .55 72% .40
Jan
18		 Tulane C F+ D B+ D+ 47% 13% 40% B+ C- A F D+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ 25% 23% 52% A A+ C+ C C+ C+ F C F
1.06 48% 33% 39% -3 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42 0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44
Jan
21		 Texas San Antonio C C+ F B- C- 43% 12% 45% B C A+ C A+ F+ A+ F A+ B A D B- C 27% 27% 45% A C+ A A+ A+ A F F F
1.19 62% 17% 36% +1 +1 1.06 54% 1.1 .59 19% .47 62% .29 0.91 42% 42% 30% -6 -2 0.86 24% 0.5 .12 22% .45 83% .38
Jan
23		 East Carolina F D+ F F F 41% 26% 33% C F C- C C- A+ C+ D- C B- A+ A+ F B- 33% 30% 38% B B F F F A+ F D F
0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19 0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37
Jan
28		 Tulsa D- F+ A+ F F 56% 12% 33% A D- B F D- C- A+ F B+ B C+ B B- A- 56% 6% 38% F+ B C+ F F+ B+ D F+ F+
0.93 48% 50% 24% -9 +2 0.88 30% 0.7 .21 17% .37 64% .24 1.16 56% 33% 33% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.6 .48 18% .36 86% .31
Jan
31		 UAB D+ B- D+ F F+ 50% 23% 27% B- D- C- F D A+ A+ C A+ C- F F C+ F 43% 23% 34% C F B+ F C- A+ C- A+ C+
1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28 1.08 70% 45% 31% +5 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Rice D A+ D F D- 31% 41% 28% F+ F+ B F D+ B B+ F C+ B- F A+ B+ A- 13% 37% 50% A+ A F C- F A+ F C F
1.03 79% 32% 18% -3 -3 0.90 37% 0.8 .29 14% .39 67% .26 1.07 71% 25% 30% -6 -4 0.81 51% 1.0 .49 27% .44 69% .31
Feb
7		 Texas San Antonio C A- F F D 48% 19% 33% C+ D+ A+ D- B+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A+ B- 41% 30% 28% B+ B- B- B- B- A+ F B+ F+
1.16 70% 22% 25% -2 +1 1.00 53% 1.0 .50 19% .41 83% .33 0.83 63% 29% 15% -9 -1 0.83 27% 0.9 .24 26% .35 67% .23
Feb
12		 Memphis B- D C F D 49% 21% 31% B+ D+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ B- A+ B- C A+ C B+ 36% 32% 32% B+ B+ B- F D+ A C+ F D
1.10 53% 38% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 1.2 .48 22% .76 76% .58 1.00 59% 20% 33% -6 -2 0.87 34% 1.3 .46 23% .28 87% .25
Feb
15		 Temple D F+ F F F 60% 20% 20% B+ F B- C- C+ A+ B B- B A F+ D+ F F 14% 33% 52% A+ D- D+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ A+
1.02 50% 30% 10% -14 +2 0.78 33% 1.0 .33 8% .34 75% .26 0.97 67% 43% 41% +8 -3 1.12 31% 0.7 .22 25% .36 53% .19
Feb
19		 Tulane C- F B F F 45% 33% 21% D- F B+ A+ A+ C- A+ C+ A+ F+ F A+ D+ D+ 38% 21% 42% C+ C- F C- F C D- B+ D+
1.08 42% 43% 22% -9 -1 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 18% .54 72% .39 1.17 72% 10% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 15% .43 71% .31
Feb
22		 Florida Atlantic B- C+ A- D C+ 46% 20% 35% C C+ A F D B A+ B A+ D+ F A+ F F 33% 33% 33% A+ D A+ A+ A+ F B+ A- A-
1.14 57% 44% 31% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.5 .19 14% .53 76% .40 1.12 72% 22% 50% +7 -2 1.13 18% 0.3 .06 9% .24 64% .15
Feb
25		 Charlotte A- A- F A+ A+ 31% 25% 43% D A B C+ B A F F F F+ F A- F F 44% 18% 38% C+ F A F C+ B F F F
1.25 69% 23% 50% +10 -1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 9% .19 55% .10 1.26 88% 29% 47% +19 +1 1.41 25% 1.2 .30 21% .52 81% .42
Mar
1		 UAB D+ F F F+ F 58% 15% 27% A F C- A+ A+ A F+ F F A+ B- A- B+ B 44% 16% 40% D- B- A A+ A+ A+ F B+ D
0.97 47% 13% 29% -13 +2 0.81 25% 1.7 .42 12% .18 60% .11 0.90 55% 29% 28% -7 +1 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 19% .38 65% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 29.9 29.9 4th
5th 8.3 27.1 35.4 5th
6th 16.5 16.5 6th
7th 10.0 10.0 7th
8th 4.8 1.9 6.7 8th
9th 1.5 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 6.3 36.7 57.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 57.0% 3.7% 3.7% 12.7 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 54.8
9-9 36.7% 1.3% 1.3% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 36.2
8-10 6.3% 1.5% 1.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 12.9 97.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.7 0.2 33.7 59.2 6.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.1%
Lose Out 3.1%