North Texas
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#80
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#60
Pace53.1#363
Improvement-0.4#236

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#146
First Shot-0.3#192
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#87
Layup/Dunks-2.1#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#76
Freethrows+0.7#117
Improvement-0.3#244

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#38
First Shot+4.8#48
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#99
Layups/Dunks+3.8#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#15
Freethrows-2.7#338
Improvement-0.1#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 21.9% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 5.8% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 5.2% 7.1% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 3.6% 1.3%
First Round18.3% 19.8% 15.7%
Second Round4.8% 5.3% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.4% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 23 - 13 - 4
Quad 310 - 313 - 7
Quad 48 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 33-63 15%     0 - 1 -12.3 -19.4 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2022 169   Fresno St. W 61-52 81%     1 - 1 +6.3 +1.6 +6.4
  Nov 25, 2022 119   San Jose St. W 69-54 65%     2 - 1 +17.7 +16.3 +5.8
  Nov 26, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 68-47 73%     3 - 1 +21.2 +4.7 +19.4
  Nov 27, 2022 152   UNC Wilmington L 51-55 71%     3 - 2 -3.3 -8.3 +4.1
  Dec 03, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha W 75-45 94%     4 - 2 +19.2 +1.1 +20.3
  Dec 06, 2022 274   @ Texas Arlington W 60-57 82%     5 - 2 -0.1 +2.3 -1.6
  Dec 10, 2022 116   Grand Canyon W 60-58 64%     6 - 2 +4.8 -2.7 +7.8
  Dec 17, 2022 143   Massachusetts W 62-44 69%     7 - 2 +19.6 -5.9 +26.4
  Dec 22, 2022 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 78-54 87%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +18.6 +8.4 +12.5
  Dec 29, 2022 52   Florida Atlantic L 46-50 48%     8 - 3 1 - 1 +3.1 -14.7 +17.0
  Dec 31, 2022 226   Florida International W 72-57 87%     9 - 3 2 - 1 +9.2 +10.1 +2.0
  Jan 05, 2023 163   @ Western Kentucky W 70-66 64%     10 - 3 3 - 1 +7.0 +8.0 -0.4
  Jan 07, 2023 121   @ Middle Tennessee W 56-51 55%     11 - 3 4 - 1 +10.4 -3.0 +14.3
  Jan 11, 2023 137   Louisiana Tech W 67-65 77%     12 - 3 5 - 1 +1.0 +5.4 -4.0
  Jan 14, 2023 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 62-66 28%     12 - 4 5 - 2 +8.6 +11.2 -3.7
  Jan 16, 2023 226   @ Florida International W 64-57 75%     13 - 4 6 - 2 +6.7 +2.1 +5.8
  Jan 19, 2023 170   Rice L 60-72 81%     13 - 5 6 - 3 -14.7 -9.0 -7.2
  Jan 21, 2023 71   @ UAB W 63-52 35%     14 - 5 7 - 3 +21.5 +3.5 +19.5
  Jan 26, 2023 312   Texas San Antonio W 63-59 94%     15 - 5 8 - 3 -6.9 -5.6 -0.6
  Jan 28, 2023 175   UTEP W 52-42 81%     16 - 5 9 - 3 +7.1 -4.1 +13.7
  Feb 04, 2023 170   @ Rice W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 09, 2023 71   UAB W 64-62 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 110   Charlotte W 58-52 71%    
  Feb 16, 2023 137   @ Louisiana Tech W 60-58 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 175   @ UTEP W 56-52 63%    
  Feb 23, 2023 110   @ Charlotte W 56-55 50%    
  Mar 02, 2023 121   Middle Tennessee W 61-54 74%    
  Mar 04, 2023 163   Western Kentucky W 64-55 81%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.5 5.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 13.7 24.4 23.5 11.8 2.5 78.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.0 5.2 1.2 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.0 8.9 19.0 25.9 24.7 14.0 3.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 36.9% 1.5    0.6 0.9
16-4 16.0% 2.2    0.6 1.6
15-5 4.8% 1.2    0.2 0.9 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 1.5 3.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 3.9% 58.8% 24.6% 34.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.6 45.4%
16-4 14.0% 29.7% 20.9% 8.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 0.9 0.0 9.9 11.1%
15-5 24.7% 20.9% 18.1% 2.8% 11.4 0.0 0.2 2.9 2.0 0.1 0.0 19.5 3.4%
14-6 25.9% 16.8% 16.0% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 1.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 21.5 1.0%
13-7 19.0% 13.6% 13.4% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 16.4 0.2%
12-8 8.9% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 0.1%
11-9 3.0% 9.6% 9.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
10-10 0.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 0.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.9% 16.4% 3.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 9.0 7.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 80.1 4.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.9% 58.8% 10.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.9 10.3 17.6 23.9 1.3
Lose Out 0.0% 4.5% 15.0 4.5