Rice
Conference USA
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#170
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#113
Pace72.8#68
Improvement+2.0#10

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#104
First Shot+4.3#62
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#304
Layup/Dunks+2.1#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#115
Freethrows+0.7#123
Improvement+0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#249
First Shot-4.8#321
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#13
Layups/Dunks-0.1#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#358
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#315
Freethrows+2.7#22
Improvement+1.9#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.6% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 96.8% 99.7% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 66.4% 85.7% 57.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.1% 2.6% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 32.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 47 - 11
Quad 49 - 116 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 190   @ Pepperdine L 67-106 44%     0 - 1 -37.4 -13.0 -19.9
  Nov 15, 2022 121   @ Middle Tennessee L 46-81 30%     0 - 2 -29.6 -19.6 -12.4
  Nov 18, 2022 227   Georgia Southern W 88-71 71%     1 - 2 +11.2 +10.8 +0.0
  Nov 19, 2022 285   Western Michigan W 96-88 81%     2 - 2 -1.3 +13.6 -15.0
  Nov 21, 2022 350   Houston Christian W 76-67 92%     3 - 2 -6.3 -3.7 -2.2
  Nov 30, 2022 287   Prairie View W 70-62 81%     4 - 2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.4
  Dec 04, 2022 209   @ Texas St. W 83-71 47%     5 - 2 +12.7 +12.7 +0.0
  Dec 12, 2022 10   @ Texas L 81-87 OT 5%     5 - 3 +12.5 +7.1 +6.1
  Dec 17, 2022 225   Northwestern St. W 110-73 71%     6 - 3 +31.3 +13.1 +11.5
  Dec 29, 2022 163   @ Western Kentucky W 81-78 39%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +6.0 +0.9 +4.8
  Dec 31, 2022 175   @ UTEP W 72-67 OT 40%     8 - 3 2 - 0 +7.6 -3.9 +10.8
  Jan 05, 2023 137   Louisiana Tech L 82-88 OT 54%     8 - 4 2 - 1 -7.0 +1.8 -8.3
  Jan 11, 2023 121   Middle Tennessee L 68-71 50%     8 - 5 2 - 2 -3.1 +1.0 -4.3
  Jan 14, 2023 175   UTEP W 83-82 61%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -1.9 +9.8 -11.7
  Jan 16, 2023 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 88-81 OT 70%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +1.6 +0.1 +0.6
  Jan 19, 2023 80   @ North Texas W 72-60 19%     11 - 5 5 - 2 +21.3 +15.4 +7.5
  Jan 26, 2023 110   Charlotte W 65-63 47%     12 - 5 6 - 2 +2.8 +0.4 +2.7
  Jan 28, 2023 71   UAB L 52-70 31%     12 - 6 6 - 3 -12.9 -16.1 +2.1
  Feb 02, 2023 137   @ Louisiana Tech L 73-77 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 80   North Texas L 61-65 37%    
  Feb 09, 2023 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-83 11%    
  Feb 11, 2023 226   @ Florida International W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 16, 2023 312   Texas San Antonio W 82-71 86%    
  Feb 18, 2023 163   Western Kentucky W 76-74 60%    
  Feb 23, 2023 71   @ UAB L 75-85 16%    
  Feb 25, 2023 110   @ Charlotte L 66-72 27%    
  Mar 02, 2023 52   Florida Atlantic L 73-80 27%    
  Mar 04, 2023 226   Florida International W 81-75 71%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.3 7.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.4 7.5 13.1 4.6 0.4 0.0 26.0 4th
5th 0.0 4.0 11.8 4.1 0.2 0.0 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 8.9 5.2 0.3 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.7 6.0 0.5 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.3 0.8 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 1.4 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 2.9 10.3 20.1 25.5 21.8 12.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 16.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.3% 4.7% 4.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 1.3% 5.6% 5.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
13-7 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
12-8 12.5% 3.4% 3.4% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.1
11-9 21.8% 2.4% 2.4% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 21.3
10-10 25.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 25.0
9-11 20.1% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 19.9
8-12 10.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3% 0.6% 16.0 0.6