Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 #232
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #236
Pace 64.5 #296
Improvement +2.6 #72

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #181 C- C D+ C- F+
Defense #285 C- C- C- C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #359 1.05 #301 -7.5 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.74 #205 +2.6 #60
Three Pointers 44% #133 1.09 #82 +2.8 #89
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #237 -2.1 #237
Freethrows 0.30 #185 69% #289 0.21 #215
Second Chance 34.7% #68 0.91 #333 0.31 #178
Turnovers 17.8% #268
Total Offense -0.5 #181

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 1.32 #342 -0.3 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #27 0.62 #12 -0.7 #238
Three Pointers 38% #256 1.10 #290 -0.3 #195
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #223 -1.3 #222
Freethrows 0.31 #219 75% #322 0.23 #257
Second Chance 32.0% #253 1.05 #190 0.34 #234
Turnovers 15.7% #219
Total Defense -3.4 #285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #345 -2.3% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #184 5.0% #274
Possession Length 18.1 #260 17.4 #194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #159 0.21 #307
Improvement +4.3 #11 -1.8 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.2 15.1
.500 or above 1.4% 4.1% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 25.3% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 27.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 94 - 15
Quad 47 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 79 @Oregon L 63 - 67 10% -0  0 - 1 +6 -2 D C F +8 A+ C C
 Tue, Nov 11 108 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 32% -8  0 - 2 -11 +1 D C- A- -12 D- C C+
 Fri, Nov 14 311 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 77% +2  1 - 2 -5 -1 B- C F -3 D+ B- B
 Mon, Nov 17 20 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  1 - 3 -5 +5 C C- B- -10 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 20 212 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 58% -3  1 - 4 -22 -6 F+ F B -15 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 155 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 34% +1  1 - 5 -5 -1 C D+ D- -3 C C C
 Tue, Nov 25 236 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 40% +4  1 - 6 -16 -20 F D- F +6 B A- B
 Wed, Nov 26 333 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 74% +10  2 - 6 +8 +14 A A+ D+ -4 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 270 Texas St. W 77 - 72 69% +2  3 - 6 -4 +4 F A+ D -8 D+ A D
 Sat, Dec 13 158 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 46% -7  4 - 6 -2 +3 D+ C- A- -5 D A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 283 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 50% -8  4 - 7 -26 -11 F C D -15 F F+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 70 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 9% -16  4 - 8 0 - 1 -38 -20 F F D -22 F C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 92 Memphis L 70 - 76 25% +1  4 - 9 0 - 2 -3 +8 C- B C- -11 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 97 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 13% +2  5 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +3 C+ D- C +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 11 164 Charlotte L 73 - 74 48% -3  5 - 10 1 - 3 -4 +2 D D D+ -6 F A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 342 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 68% +11  6 - 10 2 - 3 +7 +25 A+ C+ C+ -15 F+ F D
 Wed, Jan 21 147 Temple L 65 - 69 44% -0  6 - 11 2 - 4 -6 -1 C- B- F+ -6 B F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 70 Tulsa L 81 - 87 20% -13  6 - 12 2 - 5 -1 +11 A+ B+ D- -12 B+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 28 257 @East Carolina W 83 - 77 44% +7  7 - 12 3 - 5 +4 +11 B B- D+ -8 C D F
 Fri, Jan 30 164 @Charlotte L 69 - 75 27%
 Wed, Feb 4 144 North Texas L 64 - 66 43%
 Sun, Feb 8 119 @UAB L 70 - 80 17%
 Wed, Feb 11 107 Florida Atlantic L 73 - 78 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 257 East Carolina W 74 - 69 67%
 Sun, Feb 22 180 @Tulane L 70 - 75 32%
 Wed, Feb 25 67 South Florida L 74 - 83 19%
 Sun, Mar 1 147 @Temple L 68 - 76 24%
 Wed, Mar 4 144 @North Texas L 61 - 69 23%
 Sun, Mar 8 342 Texas San Antonio W 79 - 68 84%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4 +0 C- C D+ -3 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.1 2.2 6th
7th 0.9 3.1 0.8 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.5 2.7 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 8.8 8.1 0.6 18.7 9th
10th 0.2 3.6 12.8 13.2 2.5 0.0 32.3 10th
11th 0.1 2.8 9.6 9.1 1.9 0.1 23.5 11th
12th 0.7 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.8 6.4 15.9 23.4 24.7 17.1 7.6 3.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 10.5% 10.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 10.4% 10.4% 13.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-8 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 3.0
9-9 7.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 7.6
8-10 17.1% 17.1
7-11 24.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 24.6
6-12 23.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.4
5-13 15.9% 15.9
4-14 6.4% 6.4
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.7 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%