UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.4 112
Results Rating +3.9 106
Pace 72.2 84
Improvement -0.6 206

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 151 D+ C A C C
Defense B- 95 C+ B+ C B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 29 C+ 59% 141 +4.3 45
2 Pt. Jumpers 53% 37 C- 36% 250 +1.1 118
Three Pointers 30% 355 F 28% 358 -8.5 359
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.2 211 D+ -2.7 274
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 272
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 136 C- 1.01 212 C 0.32 154
Turnovers A 11.9% 2
Freethrows C 0.31 166 C- 71% 237 C 0.22 183
Total Offense C +0.5 151

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 233 C+ 10.1% 126
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 40 D- 8.7% 342
Three Pointers C- 82% 221 B 0.4% 63
Total D+ 51% 290 D 6.9% 312

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 215 C- 60% 227 +0.0 184
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 138 B 35% 61 -0.4 157
Three Pointers 41% 176 C+ 33% 146 -0.4 164
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 131 C -0.5 163
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.01 151
Second Chance B 26.4% 51 B+ 0.91 29 B+ 0.24 29
Turnovers C 16.9% 178
Freethrows B+ 0.24 22 C- 73% 255 B+ 0.18 33
Total Defense B- +2.9 95

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 242 D+ 8.9% 253
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 104 B 7.4% 53
Three Pointers B- 80% 72 B- 1.4% 75
Total C 55% 175 C 5.5% 178

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 84 17.4 206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 44 0.18 210
Improvement -2.9 #318 +2.4 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 132 113 99
Results Rating Rank 130 108 92
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 9% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 9% 5%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 1
Quad 22 - 34 - 4
Quad 37 - 611 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  96% 1 - 0 A+ +25 C+ +2 D- C+ A+ A+ +14 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 8% -11  9% 1 - 1 D+ -5 C- -2 D- B B C- -2 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 312 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 92% -4  21% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -10 F D+ B D -5 D- A- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 90 High Point W 91 - 74 51% +3  71% 2 - 2 A +20 B- +5 B- F+ A+ A+ +13 A A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 181 South Alabama W 80 - 72 77% +5  86% 3 - 2 C+ +4 A- +11 A- C+ A- D -6 D+ A- F
 Mon, Nov 24 126 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 53% +5  85% 4 - 2 B +11 A +12 C A+ A+ C -1 B- A F
 Tue, Nov 25 242 UTEP W 75 - 59 77% +7  83% 5 - 2 B+ +12 B +7 F+ A- A+ B+ +6 D+ A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 1 167 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 53% -4  46% 5 - 3 D- -12 F -10 F A+ D+ D+ -3 B- F C-
 Fri, Dec 5 193 @Drake W 74 - 69 59% +2  78% 6 - 3 B- +6 C- -1 F+ A- D+ B+ +7 A B D
 Sun, Dec 14 152 Troy L 85 - 86 72% -0  43% 6 - 4 C- -4 A- +11 A A- B F -15 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 316 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 92% +7  72% 7 - 4 B+ +11 B+ +9 B C A+ C+ +2 D- A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 223 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 83% +13  87% 8 - 4 A +18 C +1 C- D+ A+ A+ +20 A A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 97 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 53% +6  88% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C- -2 C+ +3 D+ B- A+ D -6 D+ D- B-
 Sun, Jan 4 58 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 19% -3  19% 9 - 5 1 - 1 A- +15 B+ +9 C- F A+ B+ +6 C- A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 120 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 63% -7  3% 9 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -5 D- -7 F B- C B- +2 A+ C+ C-
 Sun, Jan 11 247 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 69% +2  59% 10 - 6 2 - 2 C +0 C- -1 F+ C A+ C+ +1 D+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 160 @Tulane W 82 - 69 52% +4  79% 11 - 6 3 - 2 A- +16 B+ +9 C- A+ A- A- +7 B+ D- C-
 Sun, Jan 18 74 Tulsa L 77 - 99 45% -10  0% 11 - 7 3 - 3 F+ -17 C- -2 D+ D- A+ F -15 F A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 58 South Florida L 69 - 82 38% -8  3% 11 - 8 3 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 F B+ A+ B +4 C C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 334 @Texas San Antonio W 83 - 73 87% +1  63% 12 - 8 4 - 4 C +1 C+ +3 C D A+ C- -2 B- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 137 @North Texas W 72 - 68 46% +0  41% 13 - 8 5 - 4 B +8 B +6 A C A B- +2 B- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 105 Memphis L 80 - 90 58% -8  2% 13 - 9 5 - 5 D -9 C- -1 D B+ A D -6 F A C+
 Sun, Feb 8 232 Rice W 71 - 65 83% -1  31% 14 - 9 6 - 5 C -1 D -6 F+ C A+ B+ +5 B B- C-
 Wed, Feb 11 74 @Tulsa W 68 - 63 24% +4  80% 15 - 9 7 - 5 A- +16 D+ -3 F C A+ A+ +19 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Feb 15 160 Tulane L 54 - 55 74% -5  16% 15 - 10 7 - 6 C- -4 F -16 F F A A+ +12 B A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 156 @Temple W 76 - 71 52% +2  64% 16 - 10 8 - 6 B- +8 B- +5 B+ F A+ B- +3 B+ C- F
 Sun, Feb 22 105 @Memphis W 78 - 67 35% +9  84% 17 - 10 9 - 6 A +18 B+ +8 B+ F+ A- A +10 C A B-
 Sun, Mar 1 137 North Texas W 70 - 65 68%
 Wed, Mar 4 175 @Charlotte W 74 - 73 55%
 Sun, Mar 8 247 East Carolina W 80 - 69 85%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 7 +3 C +0 C+ D+ C B- +3 F C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C- F D+ 45% 53% 30% C D+ C+ C- C A C C- C B- C- B C+ C 37% 22% 41% C+ C+ B B+ B+ C B+ C- B+
1.09 59% 36% 28% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 12% .31 71% .22 1.04 60% 35% 33% -1 0 1.01 26% 0.9 .24 17% .24 73% .23
Nov
3		 Mississippi Valley C+ A+ F F D 35% 27% 38% D- D- D+ A C+ A+ A F C A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 32% 42% D A+ A+ F B A+ D- F F
1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30 0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31
Nov
7		 North Carolina St. C- C- A+ F D- 45% 19% 36% C D- A+ D- B B F+ F F C- F F C+ D- 38% 12% 50% C- D- F D F A+ D D- D-
0.94 54% 55% 14% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.8 .32 19% .23 57% .13 1.26 80% 50% 35% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 19% .36 82% .30
Nov
11		 Alabama St. F D+ B+ F F 51% 20% 29% C+ F C+ F+ D+ B F B D- D F+ A+ C D 45% 18% 38% F+ D- C A+ A- D- D+ B C-
0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22 1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20
Nov
14		 High Point B- B A+ D B 48% 27% 25% D+ B- D F+ F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B+ A+ A 42% 18% 40% B A B A+ A+ A F B+ F
1.16 64% 50% 31% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .52 77% .40 0.95 70% 30% 18% -6 +1 0.91 28% 0.7 .20 19% .49 71% .35
Nov
21		 South Alabama A- A+ A+ D+ A 30% 15% 55% C- A- A- F+ C+ A- A+ F A D D- A- C- D 42% 21% 38% B- D+ B+ A- A- F F A- F+
1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24 1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26
Nov
24		 Southern Illinois A D+ C C+ C+ 35% 33% 33% F+ C A A+ A+ A+ B C B C F D- A+ B- 34% 29% 36% B- B- B A+ A F A F B-
1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23 1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18
Nov
25		 UTEP B B F F F 48% 33% 20% C- F+ A+ F+ A- A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ C- C+ D+ D+ 23% 27% 50% C+ D+ A+ A A+ A- D+ D- D
1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45 0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22
Dec
1		 Middle Tennessee F F D+ F F 36% 18% 46% C F A A A+ D+ F+ B- D- D+ C A+ D B 42% 23% 36% D+ B- C+ F F C- B F C-
0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20 1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18
Dec
5		 Drake C- A D- F D- 36% 36% 28% D- F+ A- B A- D+ A+ B+ A+ B+ B- A+ D+ A 36% 24% 40% C A B B B D B D- B-
1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37 1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
14		 Troy A- B+ A+ A A+ 37% 26% 37% D+ A C A+ A- B D- C- D- F A C- F F 42% 9% 49% C- F A- F+ C+ F B- D+ B-
1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16 1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20
Dec
17		 Cleveland St. B+ B+ F+ B B- 56% 11% 33% A B C- C C A+ A+ F B+ C+ A A F D 47% 8% 45% F D- A+ A+ A+ C+ A- F C+
1.37 71% 33% 39% +9 +3 1.25 36% 1.1 .39 9% .43 66% .28 1.04 44% 25% 54% +6 +2 1.19 16% 0.0 .00 19% .25 93% .23
Dec
21		 UNC Asheville C C- F C D 62% 15% 23% A- C- C+ F+ D+ A+ C C- C- A+ A D A+ B+ 18% 55% 27% A+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A+
1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20 0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12
Dec
31		 Wichita St. C+ B F F D+ 47% 33% 20% C+ D+ C B+ B- A+ A+ B- A+ D F A+ F D- 36% 30% 34% A- D+ D D+ D- B- B- F C
1.08 63% 29% 20% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.1 .31 11% .41 71% .29 1.15 72% 7% 47% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.1 .46 17% .30 75% .22
Jan
4		 South Florida B+ B F A- C- 51% 28% 20% B- C- F+ F F A+ A+ B- A+ B+ C- B C- D+ 39% 9% 52% B C- A A- A+ C- D- A+ C
1.13 61% 14% 40% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.8 .16 8% .48 72% .35 1.10 58% 33% 34% 0 +2 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 64% .28
Jan
7		 Florida Atlantic D- F F F F 42% 25% 34% D F D+ A+ B- C A+ C A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D+ A+ B+ D C+ C- F F F
0.96 41% 23% 28% -14 0 0.74 24% 1.3 .31 16% .45 71% .32 1.03 44% 57% 25% -9 +1 0.85 28% 1.2 .33 16% .39 79% .31
Jan
11		 East Carolina C- F+ B F F 55% 25% 20% B F+ D A C A+ C+ F C- C+ D- A+ D- D 33% 32% 35% B+ D+ D+ A- C+ B+ C B+ C+
1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19 1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23
Jan
14		 Tulane B+ C- F A+ C- 55% 28% 17% C C- A A A+ A- D+ A+ A- A- B- D- A+ A 40% 13% 47% D B+ C+ F D- C- B+ B- A-
1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28 0.99 55% 43% 23% -9 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23
Jan
18		 Tulsa C- B+ D C- C 38% 41% 21% F D+ D+ F D- A+ A- C B+ F F F F F 49% 10% 41% C- F A B A C- A+ F A+
1.08 67% 30% 33% 0 -3 0.96 23% 0.9 .20 7% .33 73% .24 1.38 72% 67% 46% +17 +2 1.41 24% 1.2 .28 14% .16 90% .15
Jan
22		 South Florida F+ F F F F 37% 29% 35% C- F A C B+ A+ A- A+ A+ B A+ F F+ C 39% 4% 57% C C C+ C+ C+ A+ B- A+ A
0.91 39% 28% 18% -18 -1 0.63 40% 1.0 .38 13% .38 84% .32 1.08 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.1 .43 21% .35 62% .22
Jan
28		 Texas San Antonio C+ C+ A+ F+ B- 37% 29% 35% F+ C D- C+ D A+ A+ F+ A+ C- A- C+ B+ B- 34% 24% 42% B B- B F D+ F D+ F D-
1.18 61% 57% 29% +4 -1 1.08 29% 1.1 .32 10% .50 66% .33 1.03 45% 36% 28% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.2 .31 13% .28 82% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Texas B A A D+ A 43% 23% 34% C+ A D A+ C A D+ F F+ B- D+ C+ A+ C+ 50% 23% 27% C+ B- A+ A+ A+ F D+ D D
1.08 70% 45% 31% +5 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20 1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28
Feb
5		 Memphis C- A+ F F D- 26% 15% 58% C+ D B- A- B+ A A+ F A D F D F F 28% 39% 33% A+ F A+ C+ A C+ D+ D D
1.00 79% 13% 23% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.1 .37 16% .52 60% .31 1.13 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 20% .33 76% .25
Feb
8		 Rice D C+ F F+ F 37% 25% 38% B- F+ C+ C- C A+ C+ F D B+ C- C- A B+ 22% 30% 48% C+ B C- A- B- C- A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 23% 30% -4 -1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 11% .35 62% .22 0.98 58% 38% 27% -5 -2 0.87 37% 0.8 .28 17% .18 50% .09
Feb
11		 Tulsa D+ F F B F 50% 20% 30% B- F C+ D+ C A+ D- D D- A+ D B A+ A 43% 12% 45% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.02 44% 18% 38% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 9% .21 69% .15 0.94 64% 33% 26% -4 +1 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 21% .17 67% .11
Feb
15		 Tulane F D- F F F 46% 19% 35% B- F B- F F A C- F D- A+ A+ A- C B+ 39% 14% 47% D B B- A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.86 50% 22% 24% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.4 .15 13% .31 59% .18 0.88 45% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.6 .11 16% .09 100% .09
Feb
18		 Temple B- A- B B+ A 43% 31% 25% D B+ F F F A+ C+ A- B- B- D C+ A+ B+ 50% 30% 20% C B+ D B- C- F B+ A+ A
1.15 68% 44% 38% +8 -1 1.16 17% 0.4 .07 9% .32 79% .25 1.08 63% 38% 9% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 8% .31 63% .20
Feb
22		 Memphis B+ C+ A C+ A- 42% 25% 34% C B+ C F F+ A- A C A- A B F A+ C 41% 27% 31% C+ C A+ C+ A B- B+ A A-
1.09 59% 46% 33% +2 0 1.06 32% 0.5 .18 17% .42 72% .30 0.93 52% 57% 25% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.1 .31 21% .25 64% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 1.2 12.3 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 12.5 15.8 28.5 3rd
4th 8.2 30.0 4.2 42.4 4th
5th 0.2 9.2 1.4 10.8 5th
6th 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 1.0 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.6 19.6 45.1 32.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 32.6% 10.2% 10.2% 12.0 0.5 2.6 0.3 29.3
11-7 45.1% 7.6% 7.6% 12.4 0.1 2.0 1.3 41.7
10-8 19.6% 3.8% 3.8% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 18.9
9-9 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 2.6
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 12.2 92.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 12.0 13.6 77.5 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.5%
Lose Out 1.2%