UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.8 123
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 112
Pace 72.2 78
Improvement -1.6 246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 155 D+ C+ A C C-
Defense B- 105 C+ B+ C B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 32 C+ 59% 135 +4.2 46
2 Pt. Jumpers 54% 36 D+ 35% 271 +1.0 127
Three Pointers 29% 355 F 27% 361 -8.7 361
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 217 D+ -3.0 293
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 284
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 134 C 1.01 197 C+ 0.33 141
Turnovers A 11.8% 2
Freethrows C 0.31 173 C- 71% 235 C 0.22 184
Total Offense C +0.2 155

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 227 B- 9.6% 103
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 50 F+ 9.1% 346
Three Pointers C- 82% 244 B 0.4% 68
Total D+ 50% 295 D 6.8% 297

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 223 C- 60% 236 +0.1 181
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 147 B+ 33% 29 -0.7 133
Three Pointers 41% 164 C 34% 156 +0.0 180
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 133 C -0.5 164
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.01 151
Second Chance B 26.6% 56 B+ 0.91 32 B+ 0.24 30
Turnovers C 16.8% 189
Freethrows B+ 0.24 22 D+ 74% 262 B+ 0.18 36
Total Defense B- +2.5 105

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 267 D+ 8.6% 273
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 127 B 7.8% 48
Three Pointers B- 80% 80 B- 1.4% 71
Total C 56% 199 C 5.5% 189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 80 17.5 214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 48 0.18 208
Improvement -3.4 #332 +1.8 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 142 120 103
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 8 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 9% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 100% 97%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 9% 5%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 31.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 1
Quad 21 - 33 - 4
Quad 37 - 610 - 10
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  96% 1 - 0 A+ +24 C +1 D- C+ A+ A+ +14 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 7% -11  9% 1 - 1 D+ -5 C- -2 D- B B C- -2 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 309 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 91% -4  21% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -10 F D+ B D+ -5 D- A- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 89 High Point W 91 - 74 48% +3  71% 2 - 2 A +20 B- +5 B- F+ A+ A+ +13 A A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 188 South Alabama W 80 - 72 77% +5  86% 3 - 2 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ C+ A- D -6 D+ A- F
 Mon, Nov 24 128 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 52% +5  85% 4 - 2 B +10 A +11 C A+ A+ C -1 C+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 246 UTEP W 75 - 59 76% +7  83% 5 - 2 B+ +11 B +7 F+ A- A+ B+ +6 D+ A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 1 171 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 52% -4  46% 5 - 3 D- -13 F+ -10 F A+ D+ D+ -4 B- F C-
 Fri, Dec 5 194 @Drake W 74 - 69 57% +2  78% 6 - 3 B- +6 C- -1 F+ A- D+ B+ +7 A B D
 Sun, Dec 14 146 Troy L 85 - 86 68% -0  43% 6 - 4 C- -3 A- +11 A A- B F -14 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 312 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 91% +7  72% 7 - 4 B+ +12 B+ +9 B C A+ C+ +2 D- A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 226 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 81% +13  87% 8 - 4 A +18 C +1 C- D+ A+ A+ +20 A A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 97 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 52% +6  88% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +2 D+ B- A+ D -6 D+ D- B
 Sun, Jan 4 57 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 18% -3  19% 9 - 5 1 - 1 A- +15 B+ +9 C- F A+ B+ +6 C- A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 118 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 61% -7  3% 9 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -5 D- -7 F B- C+ B- +2 A B- D+
 Sun, Jan 11 242 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 66% +2  59% 10 - 6 2 - 2 C +1 C- -2 F+ C A+ B- +2 D+ B- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 163 @Tulane W 82 - 69 50% +4  79% 11 - 6 3 - 2 A- +16 B+ +9 C- A+ A- A- +7 B+ D- C-
 Sun, Jan 18 77 Tulsa L 77 - 99 43% -10  0% 11 - 7 3 - 3 F+ -17 C- -2 D+ D- A+ F -15 F A D+
 Thu, Jan 22 57 South Florida L 69 - 82 36% -8  3% 11 - 8 3 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 F B+ A+ B +4 C C+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 335 @Texas San Antonio W 83 - 73 85% +1  63% 12 - 8 4 - 4 C +2 C+ +3 C+ D A+ C- -2 B- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 138 @North Texas W 72 - 68 44% +0  41% 13 - 8 5 - 4 B +8 B +7 A C A C+ +2 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 103 Memphis L 80 - 90 53% -8  2% 13 - 9 5 - 5 D -8 C- -1 D B+ A D -6 F A C+
 Sun, Feb 8 233 Rice W 71 - 65 82% -1  31% 14 - 9 6 - 5 C -1 D -6 D- C A B+ +5 B B C-
 Wed, Feb 11 77 @Tulsa W 68 - 63 23% +4  80% 15 - 9 7 - 5 A- +16 D+ -3 F C A+ A+ +18 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Feb 15 163 Tulane L 54 - 55 72% -5  16% 15 - 10 7 - 6 C- -4 F -16 F F A A+ +12 B A+ B-
 Wed, Feb 18 152 @Temple W 76 - 71 48% +2  64% 16 - 10 8 - 6 B +8 B- +5 B+ F A+ B- +3 B+ C- F
 Sun, Feb 22 103 @Memphis L 72 - 77 32%
 Sun, Mar 1 138 North Texas W 70 - 66 66%
 Wed, Mar 4 178 @Charlotte W 74 - 73 54%
 Sun, Mar 8 242 East Carolina W 80 - 70 83%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +3 C +0 A+ D+ C- B- +3 F C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ F D+ 45% 54% 29% C- D+ C+ C C+ A C C- C B- C- B+ C C 37% 21% 41% C+ C+ B B+ B+ C B+ D+ B+
1.09 59% 35% 27% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.0 .33 12% .31 71% .22 1.05 60% 33% 34% -1 0 1.01 27% 0.9 .24 17% .24 74% .23
Nov
3		 Mississippi Valley C A+ F F D 35% 27% 38% F+ D- D+ A C+ A+ A F C A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 32% 42% D A+ A+ F B A+ D F F
1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30 0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31
Nov
7		 North Carolina St. C- C- A+ F D- 45% 19% 36% C D- A+ D- B B F+ F F C- F F C+ D- 38% 12% 50% C- D F D F A+ D D- D-
0.94 54% 55% 14% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.8 .32 19% .23 57% .13 1.26 80% 50% 35% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 19% .36 82% .30
Nov
11		 Alabama St. F D+ B+ F F 51% 20% 29% C+ F C+ F+ D+ B F+ B- D- D+ F+ A+ C D 45% 18% 38% F+ D- C+ A+ A- F+ D+ B+ C-
0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22 1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20
Nov
14		 High Point B- B- A+ D B 48% 27% 25% D+ B- D F+ F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B+ A+ A 42% 18% 40% B A B+ A+ A+ A F B+ F
1.16 64% 50% 31% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .52 77% .40 0.95 70% 30% 18% -6 +1 0.91 28% 0.7 .20 19% .49 71% .35
Nov
21		 South Alabama A- A+ A+ D+ A- 30% 15% 55% C- B+ A- F+ C+ A- A+ F A D D- A- C- D 42% 21% 38% B- D+ B+ A- A- F F A- F+
1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24 1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26
Nov
24		 Southern Illinois A D+ C C+ C+ 35% 33% 33% F+ C A A+ A+ A+ B C B C F D- A+ C+ 34% 29% 36% B- C+ B A+ A- F A F B
1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23 1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18
Nov
25		 UTEP B B F F F 48% 33% 20% C- F+ A+ F+ A- A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ C- C+ D+ D+ 23% 27% 50% C D+ A+ A A+ A- D+ D- D
1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45 0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22
Dec
1		 Middle Tennessee F+ F D+ F F 36% 18% 46% C- F A A A+ D+ F+ B- D- D+ C A+ D+ B 42% 23% 36% D+ B- C F F C- B F C-
0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20 1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18
Dec
5		 Drake C- A D- F D- 36% 36% 28% D- F+ A- B- A- D+ A+ B+ A+ B+ B- A+ D+ A 36% 24% 40% C A B B B D B D- B-
1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37 1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
14		 Troy A- B+ A+ A A+ 37% 26% 37% D+ A C A+ A- B D- C- D- F A C- F F 42% 9% 49% C- F A- D- C+ F B- D+ C+
1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16 1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20
Dec
17		 Cleveland St. B+ B+ D- B+ B- 56% 11% 33% A B C- C C A+ A+ F B+ C+ A A F D 47% 8% 45% F D- A+ A+ A+ C+ A- F C+
1.37 71% 33% 39% +9 +3 1.25 36% 1.1 .39 9% .43 66% .28 1.04 44% 25% 54% +6 +2 1.19 16% 0.0 .00 19% .25 93% .23
Dec
21		 UNC Asheville C C- F C D 62% 15% 23% A- C- C+ F+ D+ A+ C C- C- A+ A D A+ B+ 18% 55% 27% A+ A A+ A+ A+ B A+ B- A+
1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20 0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12
Dec
31		 Wichita St. C+ B F F D+ 47% 33% 20% C+ D+ C A- B- A+ A+ C+ A+ D F A+ F D- 36% 30% 34% A D+ D D+ D- B C+ F C-
1.08 63% 29% 20% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.1 .31 11% .41 71% .29 1.15 72% 7% 47% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.1 .46 17% .30 75% .22
Jan
4		 South Florida B+ B F A- D+ 51% 28% 20% B- C- F+ F F A+ A+ B- A+ B+ C- B C- D+ 39% 9% 52% B- C- A A- A+ C- D- A+ C
1.13 61% 14% 40% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.8 .16 8% .48 72% .35 1.10 58% 33% 34% 0 +2 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 64% .28
Jan
7		 Florida Atlantic D- F F F F 42% 25% 34% D F C- A+ B- C+ A+ C A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D+ A B+ D+ B- D+ F F F
0.96 41% 23% 28% -14 0 0.74 24% 1.3 .31 16% .45 71% .32 1.03 44% 57% 25% -9 +1 0.85 28% 1.2 .33 16% .39 79% .31
Jan
11		 East Carolina C- F+ B F F 55% 25% 20% B F+ D+ A C A+ C+ F C- B- D- A+ D- D 33% 32% 35% B+ D+ D+ A- B- B+ C B+ B-
1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19 1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23
Jan
14		 Tulane B+ C- F A+ C- 55% 28% 17% C C- A A A+ A- C- A+ A- A- B- D- A+ A 40% 13% 47% D- B+ C+ F D- C- B+ B B+
1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28 0.99 55% 43% 23% -9 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23
Jan
18		 Tulsa C- B+ D C- C 38% 41% 21% F D+ D+ F D- A+ B+ C B+ F F F F F 49% 10% 41% C- F A B A D+ A+ F A+
1.08 67% 30% 33% 0 -3 0.96 23% 0.9 .20 7% .33 73% .24 1.38 72% 67% 46% +17 +2 1.41 24% 1.2 .28 14% .16 90% .15
Jan
22		 South Florida F+ F F F F 37% 29% 35% C- F A C B+ A+ A- A+ A+ B A+ F F+ C 39% 4% 57% C C C+ C+ C+ A B- A+ A
0.91 39% 28% 18% -18 -1 0.63 40% 1.0 .38 13% .38 84% .32 1.08 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.1 .43 21% .35 62% .22
Jan
28		 Texas San Antonio C+ C+ A+ F+ B- 37% 29% 35% F+ C+ D- C+ D A+ A+ F+ A+ C- A- C+ B+ C+ 34% 24% 42% B- B- B F D+ F C- F D-
1.18 61% 57% 29% +4 -1 1.08 29% 1.1 .32 10% .50 66% .33 1.03 45% 36% 28% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.2 .31 13% .28 82% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Texas B A A D+ A 43% 23% 34% C+ A D- A C A D F F+ C+ D+ C A+ C+ 50% 23% 27% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ D D
1.08 70% 45% 31% +5 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20 1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28
Feb
5		 Memphis C- A+ F F D 26% 15% 58% C+ D B- A- B+ A A+ F A D F D F F 28% 39% 33% A+ F A+ C+ A C+ D+ D D
1.00 79% 13% 23% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.1 .37 16% .52 60% .31 1.13 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 20% .33 76% .25
Feb
8		 Rice D C+ F F+ F+ 37% 25% 38% B- D- C+ C- C A B- F D+ B+ C- C A B 22% 30% 48% C+ B C- A- B C- A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 23% 30% -4 -1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 11% .35 62% .22 0.98 58% 38% 27% -5 -2 0.87 37% 0.8 .28 17% .18 50% .09
Feb
11		 Tulsa D+ F F B F 50% 20% 30% B- F C+ C- C A+ D- D D- A+ D B+ A+ A 43% 12% 45% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.02 44% 18% 38% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 9% .21 69% .15 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +1 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 21% .17 67% .11
Feb
15		 Tulane F D- F F F 46% 19% 35% B- F B- F F A C- F D- A+ A+ A- C B+ 39% 14% 47% D B B- A+ A+ B- A+ F A+
0.86 50% 22% 24% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.4 .15 13% .31 59% .18 0.88 45% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.6 .11 16% .09 100% .09
Feb
18		 Temple B- A- B A- A 43% 31% 25% D B+ F F F A+ C+ A- B B- D C+ A+ B+ 50% 30% 20% C+ B+ D C+ C- F B+ A+ A
1.15 68% 44% 38% +8 -1 1.16 17% 0.4 .07 9% .32 79% .25 1.08 63% 38% 9% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 8% .31 63% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 1.3 4.7 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 11.8 4.8 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 12.9 19.5 1.0 33.4 4th
5th 0.9 17.4 1.7 20.0 5th
6th 4.8 5.5 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 6.8 0.4 7.3 7th
8th 0.5 3.1 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 1.2 0.4 1.6 9th
10th 0.5 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.3 16.1 36.7 34.3 10.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 10.6% 10.9% 10.9% 11.8 0.2 0.9 0.0 9.4
11-7 34.3% 8.0% 8.0% 12.2 0.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 31.6
10-8 36.7% 4.6% 4.6% 12.3 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 35.0
9-9 16.1% 2.0% 2.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 15.7
8-10 2.3% 1.2% 1.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 2.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 12.2 94.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 11.8 21.4 77.4 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%
Lose Out 1.1%