UAB
Conference USA
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#75
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#115
Pace76.5#27
Improvement-1.7#350

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#58
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#3
Layup/Dunks+2.0#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#276
Freethrows+1.7#61
Improvement-1.2#339

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#113
First Shot+2.4#100
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#202
Layups/Dunks+1.7#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#173
Freethrows-0.1#196
Improvement-0.5#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 21.8% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 12.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 96.6% 84.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round20.2% 21.5% 18.1%
Second Round5.4% 6.0% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.9% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 62.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 38 - 310 - 9
Quad 410 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 350   Alabama St. W 111-70 97%     1 - 0 +25.7 +14.4 +4.6
  Nov 11, 2022 103   Toledo L 85-93 61%     1 - 1 -3.6 -6.9 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2022 326   Presbyterian W 92-61 95%     2 - 1 +19.1 +6.0 +10.7
  Nov 21, 2022 132   South Florida W 80-65 69%     3 - 1 +17.2 +11.1 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2022 97   Georgia W 87-73 59%     4 - 1 +19.0 +17.9 +1.1
  Nov 30, 2022 201   Jacksonville W 80-61 86%     5 - 1 +14.7 +6.6 +8.2
  Dec 04, 2022 190   South Alabama W 76-68 85%     6 - 1 +4.2 -1.2 +5.0
  Dec 10, 2022 24   @ West Virginia L 70-81 20%     6 - 2 +5.0 +1.9 +3.4
  Dec 14, 2022 228   South Carolina W 84-70 89%     7 - 2 +7.9 +9.0 -1.1
  Dec 18, 2022 243   Southern W 92-66 90%     8 - 2 +19.0 +4.9 +10.3
  Dec 22, 2022 112   Charlotte W 76-68 73%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +8.8 +3.7 +5.2
  Dec 29, 2022 174   UTEP W 79-73 2OT 83%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +3.3 -3.8 +6.1
  Dec 31, 2022 309   Texas San Antonio W 90-67 94%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +12.3 +12.0 +0.7
  Jan 05, 2023 46   @ Florida Atlantic L 86-88 30%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +10.7 +15.2 -4.5
  Jan 07, 2023 233   @ Florida International L 87-90 OT 79%     11 - 4 3 - 2 -4.0 -1.1 -2.5
  Jan 11, 2023 176   Western Kentucky L 78-80 83%     11 - 5 3 - 3 -4.7 +0.0 -4.7
  Jan 14, 2023 145   @ Louisiana Tech W 81-74 62%     12 - 5 4 - 3 +11.1 +14.1 -2.6
  Jan 16, 2023 116   @ Middle Tennessee L 73-74 OT 56%     12 - 6 4 - 4 +4.7 -1.4 +6.2
  Jan 21, 2023 79   North Texas L 52-63 62%     12 - 7 4 - 5 -7.0 -9.4 +0.9
  Jan 26, 2023 145   Louisiana Tech W 65-59 79%     13 - 7 5 - 5 +4.9 -3.6 +8.9
  Jan 28, 2023 154   @ Rice W 84-80 63%    
  Feb 02, 2023 46   Florida Atlantic L 76-77 51%    
  Feb 04, 2023 233   Florida International W 85-71 90%    
  Feb 09, 2023 79   @ North Texas L 63-65 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 116   Middle Tennessee W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 16, 2023 174   @ UTEP W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 309   @ Texas San Antonio W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 23, 2023 154   Rice W 86-77 81%    
  Feb 25, 2023 176   @ Western Kentucky W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 04, 2023 112   @ Charlotte W 70-69 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 6.8 7.0 2.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 7.5 17.0 12.5 2.9 0.1 40.5 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 10.0 5.2 0.4 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 6.0 3.9 0.4 11.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.7 13.3 22.0 24.7 19.7 10.1 2.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 10.1% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 2.4% 51.8% 32.8% 19.0% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.2 28.3%
14-6 10.1% 28.9% 27.3% 1.6% 11.5 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.1 7.1 2.2%
13-7 19.7% 23.5% 23.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 1.0 2.9 0.8 0.0 15.1 0.2%
12-8 24.7% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 20.0 0.0%
11-9 22.0% 18.1% 18.1% 12.7 0.1 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 18.0
10-10 13.3% 15.2% 15.2% 13.2 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 11.3
9-11 5.7% 12.6% 12.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.0
8-12 1.8% 11.4% 11.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6
7-13 0.3% 10.9% 10.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.5% 19.8% 0.7% 12.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.3 8.9 5.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 79.5 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 51.8% 10.6 2.1 4.0 13.6 27.4 4.7