IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+2.9	#118
Expected Predictive Rating	+2.3	#127

Pace	72.9	#78
Improvement	-1.3	#252

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#126	D	B-	A+	C	C-
Defense	#121	C	B+	C	B-	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	46%	#17	1.17	#160	+4.7	#40
2 Pt. Jumpers	27%	#62	0.67	#302	+1.3	#105
Three Pointers	27%	#363	0.80	#359	-10.1	#363
1st FG Attempt			0.94	#302	-4.2	#301
Freethrows	0.31	#167	73%	#168	0.22	#159
Second Chance	34.0%	#84	1.06	#151	0.36	#92
Turnovers					11.6%	#2
Total Offense					+1.5	#126

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	37%	#234	1.20	#241	+0.3	#160
2 Pt. Jumpers	20%	#197	0.63	#18	+1.5	#82
Three Pointers	43%	#104	1.03	#213	-1.6	#259
1st FG Attempt			1.02	#176	+0.1	#177
Freethrows	0.26	#48	74%	#272	0.19	#69
Second Chance	26.3%	#44	0.94	#52	0.25	#31
Turnovers					16.8%	#161
Total Defense					+1.4	#121

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-0.5%	#225	-0.1%	#154
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-7.7%	#305	-0.3%	#182
Possession Length	16.1	#65	17.4	#199
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.23	#54	0.17	#168
Improvement	-1.3	#254	+0.0	#188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.8%	5.1%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.4	12.4	12.9

.500 or above	92.0%	94.0%	78.9%
.500 or above in Conference	71.7%	75.8%	45.7%
Conference Champion	1.2%	1.3%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	4.8%	5.1%	3.1%
Second Round	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 7	9 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 2	18 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	365 Mississippi Valley	W	106 - 55	99%	+29	1 - 0		+24	+5	F+	C+	A+	+10	A+	B	A+
Fri, Nov 7	27 @North Carolina St.	L	70 - 94	8%	-11	1 - 1		-6	+1	F+	B-	A-	-5	D	F	A+
Tue, Nov 11	298 Alabama St.	L	74 - 77	90%	-4	1 - 2		-14	-9	F	D	B-	-5	D+	A-	D
Fri, Nov 14	95 High Point	W	91 - 74	51%	+3	2 - 2		+20	+7	B-	F+	A+	+11	A	A+	A+
Fri, Nov 21	190 South Alabama	W	80 - 72	78%	+5	3 - 2		+3	+14	B+	C	B+	-10	D-	A	F
Mon, Nov 24	144 Southern Illinois	W	81 - 73	58%	+5	4 - 2		+9	+11	C-	A+	A	-2	C+	A+	F
Tue, Nov 25	258 UTEP	W	75 - 59	78%	+7	5 - 2		+11	+9	F	B+	A+	+4	C-	A+	B+
Mon, Dec 1	142 @Middle Tennessee	L	61 - 76	45%	-4	5 - 3		-11	-5	F	A+	C-	-7	B-	F	C-
Fri, Dec 5	147 @Drake	W	74 - 69	47%	+2	6 - 3		+9	+5	D-	A-	C-	+3	A-	B-	D
Sun, Dec 14	113 Troy	L	85 - 86	60%	-0	6 - 4		-1	+14	A	B+	B	-15	D-	C	F
Wed, Dec 17	316 Cleveland St.	W	101 - 77	92%	+7	7 - 4		+12	+13	B+	C-	A	-3	F	A+	C
Sun, Dec 21	204 UNC Asheville	W	72 - 47	79%	+13	8 - 4		+19	+3	C-	D+	A+	+18	A-	A+	B-
Wed, Dec 31	99 Wichita St.	L	70 - 75	53%	+6	8 - 5	0 - 1	-3	+4	D+	B+	A+	-7	D+	C-	B
Sun, Jan 4	68 @South Florida	W	109 - 106 2OT	22%	-3	9 - 5	1 - 1	+14	+11	C	F+	A+	+2	C-	A-	C
Wed, Jan 7	101 Florida Atlantic	L	71 - 76	53%	-7	9 - 6	1 - 2	-3	-4	F	B-	B-	+2	A+	B	C-
Sun, Jan 11	254 @East Carolina	W	87 - 85 OT	69%	+2	10 - 6	2 - 2	-0	+2	D-	C	A+	-2	D+	C+	B
Wed, Jan 14	173 @Tulane	W	82 - 69	54%	+4	11 - 6	3 - 2	+15	+11	D	A+	A-	+4	B	D	C
Sun, Jan 18	74 Tulsa	L	77 - 99	43%	-10	11 - 7	3 - 3	-17	+0	D+	F+	A+	-17	F	A+	C
Thu, Jan 22	68 South Florida	L	69 - 82	41%	-8	11 - 8	3 - 4	-8	-7	F	B+	A+	+0	C	C+	A+
Wed, Jan 28	344 @Texas San Antonio	W	83 - 71	87%
Sat, Jan 31	140 @North Texas	L	67 - 68	45%
Thu, Feb 5	102 Memphis	W	75 - 74	53%
Sun, Feb 8	239 Rice	W	80 - 70	83%
Wed, Feb 11	74 @Tulsa	L	77 - 85	24%
Sun, Feb 15	173 Tulane	W	79 - 72	74%
Wed, Feb 18	143 @Temple	L	75 - 76	46%
Sun, Feb 22	102 @Memphis	L	72 - 77	32%
Sun, Mar 1	140 North Texas	W	70 - 65	67%
Wed, Mar 4	171 @Charlotte	W	75 - 74	53%
Sun, Mar 8	254 East Carolina	W	80 - 69	84%
Totals						17 - 13	9 - 9	+3	+2	D	B-	A+	+1	C	B+	C

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.3					1.2	1st
2nd												0.3	2.0	1.4	0.1					3.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	2.3	3.8	0.5	0.0					6.8	3rd
4th										0.0	1.5	7.0	1.8	0.1						10.4	4th
5th										0.5	6.5	5.8	0.2							13.0	5th
6th									0.1	3.6	9.4	1.2								14.3	6th
7th								0.0	1.3	9.4	4.1	0.0								14.9	7th
8th							0.0	0.6	6.7	7.2	0.5									15.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	4.3	6.7	1.2	0.0									12.6	9th
10th						0.2	1.4	3.2	1.0	0.0										5.7	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	0.5	0.0											2.0	11th
12th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0												0.3	12th
13th				0.0																0.0	13th

Total				0.0	0.1	0.8	2.9	8.6	15.8	21.9	22.1	16.6	8.1	2.6	0.4						Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	71.3%	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	25.4%	0.7	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.2%	1.2	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	0.4%	8.0%	8.0%		11.0										0.0	0.0	0.0					0.4
13-5	2.6%	14.0%	14.0%		11.8											0.1	0.3	0.0				2.2
12-6	8.1%	11.9%	11.9%		12.1											0.1	0.8	0.1				7.1
11-7	16.6%	8.3%	8.3%		12.3											0.0	0.9	0.4	0.0			15.3
10-8	22.1%	4.4%	4.4%		12.4												0.6	0.4	0.0			21.2
9-9	21.9%	2.8%	2.8%		12.7											0.0	0.2	0.4	0.0			21.3
8-10	15.8%	2.2%	2.2%		13.2												0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0		15.4
7-11	8.6%	1.3%	1.3%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.0		8.5
6-12	2.9%	0.9%	0.9%		15.0															0.0		2.9
5-13	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%		15.0															0.0		0.8
4-14	0.1%																					0.1
3-15	0.0%																					0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	4.8%	4.8%	0.0%	12.4																	95.2	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%