UAB
Conference USA
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#51
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#120
Pace69.6#167
Improvement-0.5#221

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#76
First Shot+3.5#78
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#147
Layup/Dunks-0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#171
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement-3.6#354

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#55
First Shot+6.3#24
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#270
Layups/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#89
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+3.0#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 2.3% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.0% 41.9% 32.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.5% 7.4% 3.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 12.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.8% 97.1%
Conference Champion 51.6% 53.7% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.3% 1.9%
First Round39.1% 41.0% 31.5%
Second Round13.5% 14.7% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.5% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.6% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 79.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 38 - 211 - 7
Quad 412 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 270   UNC Asheville W 102-77 94%     1 - 0 +16.0 +22.2 -6.9
  Nov 12, 2021 134   Morehead St. W 85-71 82%     2 - 0 +13.2 +11.3 +1.8
  Nov 18, 2021 98   @ South Carolina L 63-66 53%     2 - 1 +5.0 -6.4 +11.5
  Nov 21, 2021 342   Alabama A&M W 86-41 98%     3 - 1 +29.0 +2.9 +23.4
  Nov 25, 2021 201   New Mexico W 86-73 84%     4 - 1 +11.2 +4.0 +6.3
  Nov 26, 2021 49   San Francisco L 61-63 48%     4 - 2 +7.3 -5.0 +12.2
  Dec 01, 2021 123   East Tennessee St. W 72-63 80%    
  Dec 04, 2021 56   @ Saint Louis L 72-74 40%    
  Dec 14, 2021 324   Grambling St. W 80-59 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 45   West Virginia L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 22, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 93-57 99.9%   
  Dec 30, 2021 162   UTEP W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 300   Texas San Antonio W 83-64 96%    
  Jan 06, 2022 108   @ North Texas W 63-61 55%    
  Jan 08, 2022 184   @ Rice W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 13, 2022 226   Florida International W 74-59 91%    
  Jan 15, 2022 221   Florida Atlantic W 79-65 90%    
  Jan 22, 2022 109   @ Louisiana Tech W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 27, 2022 126   @ Western Kentucky W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 114   @ Marshall W 80-78 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 183   Middle Tennessee W 76-63 88%    
  Feb 10, 2022 247   Southern Miss W 75-59 92%    
  Feb 13, 2022 228   @ Old Dominion W 69-60 79%    
  Feb 17, 2022 184   Rice W 82-69 87%    
  Feb 19, 2022 108   North Texas W 66-58 75%    
  Feb 24, 2022 300   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 162   @ UTEP W 69-64 69%    
  Mar 02, 2022 247   @ Southern Miss W 72-62 81%    
  Mar 05, 2022 109   Louisiana Tech W 78-70 75%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.8 13.9 14.5 9.2 3.3 51.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 6.3 6.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.3 4.4 1.7 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.9 6.4 10.2 14.0 16.5 17.5 15.3 9.2 3.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
17-1 99.7% 9.2    8.9 0.3
16-2 95.4% 14.5    12.6 1.9 0.0
15-3 79.1% 13.9    8.9 4.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 47.6% 7.8    3.5 3.2 1.0 0.2
13-5 17.8% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 51.6% 51.6 37.7 10.8 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.3% 79.9% 54.4% 25.6% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 56.0%
17-1 9.2% 71.7% 54.6% 17.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.2 2.6 37.7%
16-2 15.3% 56.7% 49.6% 7.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.6 14.1%
15-3 17.5% 45.1% 42.4% 2.7% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.5 2.1 0.2 9.6 4.7%
14-4 16.5% 36.3% 35.3% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.5 1.6%
13-5 14.0% 30.8% 30.8% 12.8 0.1 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.0 9.7
12-6 10.2% 19.7% 19.7% 13.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 8.2
11-7 6.4% 17.9% 17.9% 13.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 5.2
10-8 3.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.5
9-9 2.1% 7.3% 7.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
8-10 1.1% 7.6% 7.6% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
7-11 0.3% 22.6% 22.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.2% 12.0% 12.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.1% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.0% 35.9% 4.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.7 2.5 6.8 12.9 8.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 60.0 6.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 4.0 0.4 8.2 20.1 35.7 31.2 4.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 50.0% 5.1 23.8 23.8 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 8.0 16.9 3.4 59.3 1.7 18.6