UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#104
Pace72.9#97
Improvement-0.3#213

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot-2.2#233
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#17
Layup/Dunks+6.4#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.0#365
Freethrows+0.9#124
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#109
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#47
Layups/Dunks-1.4#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
Freethrows-0.8#235
Improvement-0.8#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 9.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 91.0% 94.3% 82.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 79.4% 69.7%
Conference Champion 10.8% 12.1% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 1.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round8.5% 9.4% 6.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 411 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +25.3 +4.2 +12.3
  Fri, Nov 7 28 @North Carolina St. L 70-94 11%     1 - 1 -6.7 -0.8 -4.5
  Tue, Nov 11 262 Alabama St. L 74-77 87%     1 - 2 -11.5 -9.4 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 14 97 High Point W 91-74 56%     2 - 2 +19.3 +6.5 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 21 172 South Alabama W 80-72 77%     3 - 2 +4.1 +12.7 -7.8
  Mon, Nov 24 125 Southern Illinois W 81-73 55%     4 - 2 +10.5 +9.0 +1.5
  Tue, Nov 25 230 UTEP W 75-59 77%     5 - 2 +12.0 +10.7 +3.0
  Mon, Dec 1 153 @Middle Tennessee L 61-76 52%     5 - 3 -11.8 -7.1 -5.5
  Fri, Dec 5 130 @Drake W 74-69 44%     6 - 3 +10.3 +5.8 +4.6
  Sun, Dec 14 148 Troy W 77-71 72%    
  Wed, Dec 17 325 Cleveland St. W 88-72 94%    
  Sun, Dec 21 196 UNC Asheville W 80-71 80%    
  Wed, Dec 31 89 Wichita St. W 74-73 54%    
  Tue, Jan 6 84 @South Florida L 77-83 29%    
  Wed, Jan 7 120 Florida Atlantic W 78-74 64%    
  Sun, Jan 11 286 @East Carolina W 79-71 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 184 @Tulane W 78-75 60%    
  Sun, Jan 18 85 Tulsa W 78-77 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 84 South Florida W 81-80 51%    
  Wed, Jan 28 281 @Texas San Antonio W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 146 @North Texas W 69-68 50%    
  Thu, Feb 5 66 Memphis L 75-77 45%    
  Sun, Feb 8 215 Rice W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 85 @Tulsa L 74-80 31%    
  Sun, Feb 15 184 Tulane W 81-72 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 164 @Temple W 79-78 54%    
  Sun, Feb 22 66 @Memphis L 72-80 25%    
  Sun, Mar 1 146 North Texas W 71-65 70%    
  Wed, Mar 4 197 @Charlotte W 73-70 61%    
  Sun, Mar 8 286 East Carolina W 82-68 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.6 3.5 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 6.2 3.6 0.4 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.4 0.7 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.6 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.2 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.4 9.6 12.4 14.4 14.3 13.1 9.8 6.8 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.9% 1.5    1.4 0.2
15-3 81.9% 3.0    2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.6% 3.5    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 18.9% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 5.9 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 56.0% 48.0% 8.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4%
17-1 0.5% 41.1% 35.6% 5.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 8.5%
16-2 1.6% 27.0% 26.4% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.9%
15-3 3.7% 23.4% 23.0% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.8 0.5%
14-4 6.8% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 11.8 0.3 0.9 0.1 5.5 0.1%
13-5 9.8% 15.8% 15.8% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.3
12-6 13.1% 11.8% 11.8% 12.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 11.6
11-7 14.3% 8.0% 8.0% 12.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 13.2
10-8 14.4% 5.6% 5.6% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.6
9-9 12.4% 2.8% 2.8% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.1
8-10 9.6% 1.7% 1.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5
7-11 6.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
6-12 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.5% 8.4% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 91.5 0.1%