UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.3 125
Expected Predictive Rating +2.5 121
Pace 73.1 66
Improvement -2.8 297

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #134 D+ C+ A C C-
Defense C+ #134 C B+ C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 33 60% 122 +4.5 40
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 76 36% 252 +1.3 102
Three Pointers 29% 356 27% 364 -9.0 363
1st FG Attempt 0.96 271 -3.3 279
Second Chance 32.7% 118 1.06 130 0.35 105
Turnovers 11.9% 2
Freethrows 0.32 145 70% 240 0.22 167
Total Offense +1.2 134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 249 60% 253 +0.3 167
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 33% 29 +0.7 132
Three Pointers 42% 132 34% 190 -0.8 223
1st FG Attempt 1.01 172 +0.2 173
Second Chance 26.4% 52 0.92 51 0.24 33
Turnovers 16.7% 195
Freethrows 0.26 45 75% 314 0.19 73
Total Defense +1.1 134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 229 -0.2 125
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 277 +0.0 183
Possession Length 16.2 72 17.4 204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 48 0.18 201
Improvement -1.8 #288 -0.9 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 6.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.0 12.6
.500 or above 97.4% 99.9% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 95.8% 77.1%
Conference Champion 0.6% 3.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 6.0% 3.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 68 - 12
Quad 410 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  96% 1 - 0 A+ +24 C +1 F+ B- A+ A+ +14 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 28 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 8% -11  9% 1 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -2 F+ B B C- -2 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 316 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 91% -4  21% 1 - 2 F+ -16 F -11 F D+ B D+ -5 D B+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 96 High Point W 91 - 74 50% +3  71% 2 - 2 A +19 B- +5 B- F+ A+ A+ +13 A A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 190 South Alabama W 80 - 72 76% +5  86% 3 - 2 C+ +3 A +12 A- C+ A- D- -8 D A- F
 Mon, Nov 24 131 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 51% +5  85% 4 - 2 B +10 A- +10 C- A+ A+ C -0 B- A F
 Tue, Nov 25 249 UTEP W 75 - 59 75% +7  83% 5 - 2 B +11 B+ +7 F+ A- A+ B +6 D+ A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 1 172 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 50% -4  46% 5 - 3 D- -13 F+ -9 F A+ D+ D+ -5 B- F C-
 Fri, Dec 5 177 @Drake W 74 - 69 51% +2  78% 6 - 3 B- +7 C -0 D- B+ D+ B+ +7 A B+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 126 Troy L 85 - 86 62% -0  43% 6 - 4 C- -2 A +11 A A- B F -13 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 299 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 89% +7  72% 7 - 4 B+ +13 A- +11 B+ C A+ C+ +1 D- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 214 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 78% +13  87% 8 - 4 A +19 C +0 D+ D+ A+ A+ +21 A A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 91 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 49% +6  88% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C- -2 C+ +2 D+ B- A+ D+ -5 D+ D B
 Sun, Jan 4 66 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 20% -3  19% 9 - 5 1 - 1 A- +14 B+ +8 C- F A+ B +6 C- A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 109 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 56% -7  3% 9 - 6 1 - 2 C- -4 D- -7 F B- C+ B- +3 A+ B D+
 Sun, Jan 11 254 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 67% +2  59% 10 - 6 2 - 2 C -0 C- -2 F+ C A+ C+ +1 D+ C+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 182 @Tulane W 82 - 69 53% +4  79% 11 - 6 3 - 2 A- +15 B+ +8 D+ A+ A- B+ +7 B+ D- C
 Sun, Jan 18 65 Tulsa L 77 - 99 38% -10  0% 11 - 7 3 - 3 F+ -17 C- -2 C- D- A+ F -14 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 66 South Florida L 69 - 82 38% -8  3% 11 - 8 3 - 4 D+ -8 F -11 F B A+ B- +4 C C+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 348 @Texas San Antonio W 83 - 73 86% +1  63% 12 - 8 4 - 4 C +1 C+ +3 C D A+ C- -2 B- D F
 Sat, Jan 31 143 @North Texas W 72 - 68 43% +0  41% 13 - 8 5 - 4 B +8 B +7 A C A C+ +1 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 85 Memphis L 80 - 90 46% -8  2% 13 - 9 5 - 5 D+ -7 C +0 D+ B+ A D -6 F A C+
 Sun, Feb 8 226 Rice W 71 - 65 80% -1  31% 14 - 9 6 - 5 C -1 D -5 D- C+ A+ B +5 B B D+
 Wed, Feb 11 65 @Tulsa L 77 - 86 20%
 Sun, Feb 15 182 Tulane W 79 - 72 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 138 @Temple L 75 - 77 43%
 Sun, Feb 22 85 @Memphis L 72 - 79 25%
 Sun, Mar 1 143 North Texas W 70 - 66 66%
 Wed, Mar 4 163 @Charlotte L 74 - 75 50%
 Sun, Mar 8 254 East Carolina W 81 - 70 83%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +2 C+ +1 D+ C+ A C+ +1 C B+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C- F D+ 45% 26% 29% C- D+ C+ C+ C+ A C+ C- C C+ C- B+ C C 36% 21% 42% C+ C B B B+ C B D B-
1.10 60% 36% 27% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.1 .35 12% .32 70% .22 1.07 60% 33% 34% 0 0 1.01 26% 0.9 .24 17% .26 75% .24
Nov
3		 Mississippi Valley C A+ F F D- 35% 27% 38% D- F+ D+ A+ B- A+ A F C A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 32% 42% D A+ A+ F B A+ D F F
1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30 0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31
Nov
7		 North Carolina St. D+ C- A+ F F+ 45% 19% 36% C+ F+ A+ D- B B F+ F F C- F F C+ D- 38% 12% 50% C- D F D F A+ D D- F+
0.94 54% 55% 14% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.8 .32 19% .23 57% .13 1.26 80% 50% 35% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 19% .36 82% .30
Nov
11		 Alabama St. F D+ B F F 51% 20% 29% C F C+ F+ D+ B F+ C+ D- D+ F+ A+ C D 45% 18% 38% F+ D C A+ B+ F+ D+ B C-
0.99 57% 42% 12% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22 1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20
Nov
14		 High Point B- B- A D B 48% 27% 25% D+ B- D- F F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B+ A+ A 42% 18% 40% B A B A+ A+ A F B F
1.16 64% 50% 31% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .52 77% .40 0.95 70% 30% 18% -6 +1 0.91 28% 0.7 .20 19% .49 71% .35
Nov
21		 South Alabama A A+ A+ D+ A 30% 15% 55% C- A- B+ F+ C+ A- A+ F A+ D- F+ A- C- D- 42% 21% 38% B- D B+ A A- F F A- F+
1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24 1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26
Nov
24		 Southern Illinois A- D+ C C+ C+ 35% 33% 33% F+ C- A A+ A+ A+ B- C- C+ C F D A+ B- 34% 29% 36% B- B- B A+ A F A+ F B
1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23 1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18
Nov
25		 UTEP B+ B F F F+ 48% 33% 20% C- F+ A+ F+ A- A+ A+ C A+ B C- C+ D+ D 23% 27% 50% C D+ A+ A A+ A- D+ D- D
1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45 0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22
Dec
1		 Middle Tennessee F+ F D+ F F 36% 18% 46% C F A A+ A+ D+ D- B D D+ C A+ D+ B 42% 23% 36% D+ B- C F F C- B F C-
0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20 1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18
Dec
5		 Drake C A D- F D- 36% 36% 28% D- D- A- B- B+ D+ A+ A A+ B+ B- A+ D A 36% 24% 40% C A B B B+ D B D B-
1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37 1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
14		 Troy A B+ A+ A- A+ 37% 26% 37% D+ A C A+ A- B D- C D- F A C- F F 42% 9% 49% C- F A- D B- F B- C- C+
1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16 1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20
Dec
17		 Cleveland St. A- A- F+ B+ B 56% 11% 33% A B+ C- C+ C A+ A+ F A- C+ A A F D 47% 8% 45% F D- A+ A+ A+ C A F B-
1.37 71% 33% 39% +9 +3 1.25 36% 1.1 .39 9% .43 66% .28 1.04 44% 25% 54% +6 +2 1.19 16% 0.0 .00 19% .25 93% .23
Dec
21		 UNC Asheville C C- F C D 62% 15% 23% A- D+ C+ F+ D+ A+ C- D+ D+ A+ A D A+ A- 18% 55% 27% A+ A A+ A+ A+ B A+ B- A+
1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20 0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12
Dec
31		 Wichita St. C+ B F+ F D+ 47% 33% 20% C D+ C B+ B- A+ A+ C A+ D+ F A+ F D- 36% 30% 34% A D+ D C- D B C+ F C-
1.08 63% 29% 20% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.1 .31 11% .41 71% .29 1.15 72% 7% 47% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.1 .46 17% .30 75% .22
Jan
4		 South Florida B+ B F A- D+ 51% 28% 20% B- C- F+ F F A+ A+ B- A+ B C B- C- D+ 39% 9% 52% B- C- A A- A+ C- D- A+ C
1.13 61% 14% 40% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.8 .16 8% .48 72% .35 1.10 58% 33% 34% 0 +2 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 64% .28
Jan
7		 Florida Atlantic D- F F F F 42% 25% 34% D F D+ A+ B- C+ A+ C- A+ B- A F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% C- A+ A- D+ B D+ F F F
0.96 41% 23% 28% -14 0 0.74 24% 1.3 .31 16% .45 71% .32 1.03 44% 57% 25% -9 +1 0.85 28% 1.2 .33 16% .39 79% .31
Jan
11		 East Carolina C- F+ B F F 55% 25% 20% B F+ D+ A- C A+ C+ F C- C+ D A D- D- 33% 32% 35% A- D+ D+ B C+ B C B+ C+
1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19 1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23
Jan
14		 Tulane B+ C- F A+ D+ 55% 28% 17% C+ D+ A A A+ A- C- A+ A- B+ B- D- A+ A 40% 13% 47% D- B+ C F D- C B+ B B+
1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28 0.99 55% 43% 23% -8 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23
Jan
18		 Tulsa C- B+ D C C 38% 41% 21% F C- D+ F D- A+ B+ C B F F F F F 49% 10% 41% C- F A B+ A+ C- A+ F A+
1.08 67% 30% 33% 0 -3 0.96 23% 0.9 .20 7% .33 73% .24 1.38 72% 67% 46% +17 +2 1.41 24% 1.2 .28 14% .16 90% .15
Jan
22		 South Florida F F F F F 37% 29% 35% D+ F A C- B A+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ F F+ C 39% 4% 57% C C C C+ C+ A B- A+ A-
0.91 39% 28% 18% -18 -1 0.63 40% 1.0 .38 13% .38 84% .32 1.08 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.1 .43 21% .35 62% .22
Jan
28		 Texas San Antonio C+ C+ A+ F+ B- 37% 29% 35% F+ C F+ C+ D A+ A+ D- A+ C- B+ C+ B+ B- 34% 24% 42% B- B- B- F D F C- F D-
1.18 61% 57% 29% +4 -1 1.08 29% 1.1 .32 10% .50 66% .33 1.03 45% 36% 28% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.2 .31 13% .28 82% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Texas B A A- C- A+ 43% 23% 34% C A D- A C A D- F F C+ D+ C A+ C+ 50% 23% 27% B- C+ A A+ A+ F D D D-
1.08 70% 45% 31% +6 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20 1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28
Feb
5		 Memphis C A+ F F D 26% 15% 58% C+ D+ B- A- B+ A A+ F A+ D F D+ F F 28% 39% 33% A+ F A C+ A C+ D+ D- D
1.00 79% 13% 23% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.1 .37 16% .52 60% .31 1.13 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 20% .33 76% .25
Feb
8		 Rice D C+ F D- F+ 37% 25% 38% B- D- C+ C C+ A+ B- F D+ B C- C A B 22% 30% 48% C+ B C B+ B D+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 23% 30% -4 -1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 11% .35 62% .22 0.98 58% 38% 27% -5 -2 0.87 37% 0.8 .28 17% .18 50% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 0.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 3.0 0.1 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 8.3 0.8 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 8.0 5.4 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.9 12.4 0.9 16.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 11.6 6.2 0.0 18.7 7th
8th 0.3 7.4 11.6 1.0 20.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 5.8 0.8 8.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.5 3.9 14.7 27.2 29.3 17.8 5.8 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 61.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.8% 16.0% 16.0% 11.3 0.1 0.0 0.6
12-6 5.8% 8.5% 8.5% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.3
11-7 17.8% 6.2% 6.2% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 16.7
10-8 29.3% 3.5% 3.5% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 28.3
9-9 27.2% 2.4% 2.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 26.5
8-10 14.7% 1.6% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.5
7-11 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 14.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 12.4 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 70.8 29.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%