Preseason Rankings
UAB
American Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#103
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.9#72
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 11.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 n/a
.500 or above 76.1% 76.1% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 68.9% 69.0% 17.2%
Conference Champion 12.3% 12.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 3.4% 8.3%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
First Round11.0% 11.0% 0.0%
Second Round3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 38 - 511 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 365   Mississippi Valley W 86-53 99.9%   
  Nov 07, 2025 31   @ North Carolina St. L 67-79 13%    
  Nov 11, 2025 289   Alabama St. W 82-67 92%    
  Nov 14, 2025 109   High Point W 78-74 64%    
  Nov 21, 2025 167   South Alabama W 73-64 78%    
  Nov 24, 2025 138   Southern Illinois W 76-73 62%    
  Nov 25, 2025 160   UTEP W 77-72 68%    
  Dec 01, 2025 151   @ Middle Tennessee W 76-74 55%    
  Dec 05, 2025 113   @ Drake L 63-65 44%    
  Dec 14, 2025 130   Troy W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 17, 2025 223   Cleveland St. W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 21, 2025 198   UNC Asheville W 82-72 81%    
  Dec 31, 2025 122   Wichita St. W 79-73 68%    
  Jan 06, 2026 95   @ South Florida L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 07, 2026 140   Florida Atlantic W 81-74 71%    
  Jan 11, 2026 158   @ East Carolina W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 14, 2026 115   @ Tulane L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 18, 2026 150   Tulsa W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 22, 2026 95   South Florida W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 28, 2026 168   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-77 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 88   @ North Texas L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 05, 2026 51   Memphis L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 08, 2026 172   Rice W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 11, 2026 150   @ Tulsa W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 15, 2026 115   Tulane W 77-72 64%    
  Feb 18, 2026 133   @ Temple W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 22, 2026 51   @ Memphis L 74-83 24%    
  Mar 01, 2026 88   North Texas W 66-64 57%    
  Mar 04, 2026 192   @ Charlotte W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 08, 2026 158   East Carolina W 77-69 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.7 3.0 3.5 2.4 1.1 0.3 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.4 3.4 1.1 0.3 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.8 2.2 0.3 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 2.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.7 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.7 6.0 7.8 8.9 10.7 11.5 11.1 10.9 9.1 7.0 4.6 2.7 1.1 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
16-2 89.8% 2.4    2.0 0.4
15-3 75.7% 3.5    2.5 1.0 0.1
14-4 43.2% 3.0    1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 19.1% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 7.5 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 85.4% 58.7% 26.7% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.7%
17-1 1.1% 77.9% 53.9% 24.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 52.1%
16-2 2.7% 50.0% 35.4% 14.6% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.3 22.7%
15-3 4.6% 38.0% 29.5% 8.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 2.9 12.1%
14-4 7.0% 25.1% 21.3% 3.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.2 4.8%
13-5 9.1% 19.2% 18.1% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.3 1.3%
12-6 10.9% 13.3% 12.8% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.5 0.6%
11-7 11.1% 9.0% 9.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 10.1 0.1%
10-8 11.5% 4.4% 4.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.0
9-9 10.7% 3.9% 3.9% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
8-10 8.9% 2.8% 2.8% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6
7-11 7.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
6-12 6.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
5-13 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.5% 10.0% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.2 4.9 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 88.5 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 1.4 19.7 39.4 19.7 19.7