Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Villanova 95.9%   2   3 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 15 - 5 +16.9      +12.0 3 +4.9 54 61.7 339 +14.2 29 0.0 1
14 Connecticut 93.4%   4   6 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +15.0      +7.4 23 +7.6 20 70.8 140 +15.7 19 0.0 1
28 Seton Hall 85.0%   7   5 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +12.9      +5.7 38 +7.2 27 71.5 117 +16.5 14 0.0 1
40 Xavier 68.7%   9   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +10.6      +4.4 63 +6.2 37 70.2 158 +14.5 26 0.0 1
53 Providence 50.6%   11   6 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +8.4      +5.7 39 +2.8 92 65.8 266 +16.2 17 0.0 1
60 St. John's 26.5%   5 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +7.7      +4.6 58 +3.1 85 81.3 8 +7.2 82 0.0 1
71 Marquette 34.1%   6 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +7.0      +2.7 98 +4.2 64 81.1 9 +15.0 22 0.0 1
87 Creighton 17.5%   6 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 12 +6.1      +3.1 96 +3.0 86 70.3 153 +10.9 58 0.0 1
101 DePaul 13.3%   5 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 13 +5.0      +3.6 81 +1.4 120 74.4 65 +10.0 62 0.0 1
106 Butler 4.8%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 +4.3      +0.1 170 +4.2 65 61.7 337 -0.6 184 0.0 1
138 Georgetown 1.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 20 6 - 14 +2.2      +0.9 142 +1.3 128 72.1 101 -8.4 293 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Villanova 2.0 50.8 24.9 11.7 6.0 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1
Connecticut 2.6 32.1 27.2 18.0 10.3 5.7 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
Seton Hall 3.4 17.3 22.4 19.4 14.3 10.9 6.9 3.8 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.3
Xavier 4.6 7.9 13.9 16.4 17.7 12.3 9.9 8.3 6.0 4.1 2.8 1.0
Providence 5.8 2.9 6.8 10.8 13.2 14.7 13.8 12.2 9.5 8.0 5.5 2.7
St. John's 6.1 2.9 5.3 9.5 12.4 12.4 14.5 11.7 11.5 8.6 6.9 4.2
Marquette 6.5 1.8 3.7 7.0 11.0 12.7 14.0 13.6 12.9 10.1 8.2 5.1
Creighton 7.1 1.2 3.1 4.5 7.3 10.0 13.8 13.9 13.3 12.9 12.1 7.9
DePaul 7.6 0.7 1.8 3.2 6.0 9.2 10.9 12.9 14.2 14.6 14.4 12.1
Butler 8.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 4.5 6.5 9.2 12.2 13.7 15.7 17.5 15.7
Georgetown 9.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.2 5.8 7.8 10.7 15.6 21.5 31.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Villanova 15 - 5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.0 3.4 5.9 8.4 11.9 13.7 16.1 15.0 11.9 7.2 2.1
Connecticut 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.3 3.9 6.2 10.6 12.5 12.4 15.2 13.4 10.3 7.2 3.1 0.8
Seton Hall 13 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.6 8.1 10.8 13.1 13.1 12.3 12.3 9.0 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.3
Xavier 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.0 9.2 10.9 12.5 12.6 12.3 8.7 7.8 4.6 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1
Providence 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.2 10.0 10.4 12.2 12.6 12.6 10.4 8.2 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
St. John's 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.5 7.3 9.6 11.7 12.3 12.1 10.7 9.8 6.7 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1
Marquette 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.5 6.1 7.9 11.5 12.6 13.1 12.5 10.6 6.9 5.5 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Creighton 8 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.6 11.1 12.8 12.1 13.6 10.7 8.0 5.4 3.4 2.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0
DePaul 7 - 13 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.1 7.6 10.0 11.5 13.6 13.1 10.4 9.7 6.6 4.0 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0
Butler 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.4 7.1 9.3 11.8 12.9 13.2 12.3 9.6 7.5 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 6 - 14 1.2 3.8 7.7 11.5 15.2 13.8 12.6 12.4 7.6 5.9 3.5 2.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 50.8% 39.5 9.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
Connecticut 32.1% 23.5 7.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 17.3% 11.6 4.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Xavier 7.9% 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Providence 2.9% 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
St. John's 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Marquette 1.8% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1
Creighton 1.2% 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
DePaul 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1
Butler 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1
Georgetown 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 95.9% 35.8% 60.1% 2   16.8 15.7 15.8 12.0 9.7 7.5 6.4 4.5 3.0 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.1 93.6%
Connecticut 93.4% 25.2% 68.2% 4   7.1 10.7 13.4 12.2 10.8 11.3 9.3 6.2 5.0 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.0 6.6 91.1%
Seton Hall 85.0% 15.7% 69.3% 7   3.5 5.5 8.4 8.7 10.0 9.9 10.7 9.6 7.4 5.9 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.0 82.2%
Xavier 68.7% 8.4% 60.3% 9   0.7 1.5 4.0 5.2 5.6 8.3 8.3 9.0 9.6 7.5 6.0 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 31.3 65.8%
Providence 50.6% 4.5% 46.2% 11   0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 3.2 4.1 6.5 7.8 8.6 6.9 6.6 2.8 0.3 49.4 48.3%
St. John's 26.5% 3.4% 23.2% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.4 3.6 4.5 5.1 4.8 2.1 0.2 73.5 24.0%
Marquette 34.1% 2.6% 31.4% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.2 4.1 4.9 6.0 5.1 5.5 2.9 0.1 0.0 66.0 32.3%
Creighton 17.5% 1.8% 15.7% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 82.5 16.0%
DePaul 13.3% 1.1% 12.2% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.8 2.9 1.4 0.1 0.1 86.7 12.3%
Butler 4.8% 1.3% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 95.2 3.5%
Georgetown 1.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.8 1.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Villanova 95.9% 1.4% 95.1% 78.3% 48.8% 28.1% 14.3% 7.1% 3.5%
Connecticut 93.4% 2.0% 92.4% 68.9% 40.1% 19.8% 8.7% 4.2% 1.5%
Seton Hall 85.0% 3.4% 83.3% 55.5% 24.4% 11.0% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
Xavier 68.7% 5.6% 65.8% 37.4% 14.6% 5.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Providence 50.6% 6.3% 47.1% 22.0% 6.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
St. John's 26.5% 4.4% 24.4% 11.0% 3.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Marquette 34.1% 6.2% 30.3% 12.3% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton 17.5% 4.0% 15.6% 6.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 13.3% 2.8% 11.8% 4.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 4.8% 0.9% 4.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.9 0.3 5.5 26.6 42.0 21.6 3.7 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.7 0.5 7.7 33.1 40.3 15.8 2.6 0.0
2nd Round 99.6% 3.0 0.4 5.2 24.8 40.7 22.8 5.7 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 86.3% 1.4 13.7 40.6 34.7 9.7 1.2 0.1
Elite Eight 55.9% 0.7 44.1 43.2 11.3 1.3 0.0
Final Four 28.3% 0.3 71.7 25.8 2.4 0.1
Final Game 13.7% 0.1 86.3 13.2 0.4
Champion 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.9