Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Connecticut 100.0%   1   22 - 1 12 - 0 +21.5      +10.0 19 +11.4 5 63.8 311 +30.0 2 +25.3 1
18 St. John's 99.2%   6   17 - 5 10 - 1 +17.6      +9.1 25 +8.5 17 73.4 67 +16.1 30 +21.7 2
31 Villanova 90.7%   8   17 - 5 8 - 3 +14.6      +8.1 37 +6.4 38 60.9 355 +16.2 29 +15.9 3
54 Seton Hall 33.3%   16 - 7 6 - 6 +10.0      +0.6 149 +9.4 12 65.1 279 +12.1 50 +10.2 4
61 Creighton 4.9%   12 - 11 6 - 6 +8.9      +6.5 53 +2.4 102 67.8 209 +8.4 69 +9.9 5
64 Providence 1.3%   10 - 13 3 - 9 +8.7      +8.9 29 -0.2 168 77.5 17 +5.0 92 +4.5 10
72 Butler 5.9%   13 - 10 4 - 8 +8.0      +5.7 59 +2.3 107 71.4 109 +8.7 68 +6.2 8
78 Georgetown 2.4%   13 - 10 5 - 7 +7.6      +3.8 82 +3.8 75 66.8 234 +8.2 70 +8.0 6
85 Xavier 0.7%   12 - 11 4 - 8 +6.3      +3.4 89 +2.9 91 74.5 43 +7.6 75 +6.1 9
95 DePaul 0.3%   12 - 11 4 - 8 +5.7      +0.5 150 +5.2 52 67.4 220 +5.6 90 +6.9 7
96 Marquette 0.2%   8 - 15 3 - 9 +5.6      +2.7 101 +2.8 92 72.3 84 +1.5 136 +3.3 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 3 95 DePaul 56 18 St. John's 68   
Tue, Feb 3 8 Connecticut 92 85 Xavier 60   
Wed, Feb 4 72 Butler 87 64 Providence 97   
Wed, Feb 4 61 Creighton 68 78 Georgetown 76   
Wed, Feb 4 54 Seton Hall 60 31 Villanova 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 6 18 St. John's 73 8 Connecticut 74 53%   
Sat, Feb 7 61 Creighton 70 54 Seton Hall 68 58%   
Sat, Feb 7 72 Butler 78 96 Marquette 79 52%   
Sat, Feb 7 95 DePaul 77 64 Providence 83 72%   
Sat, Feb 7 78 Georgetown 68 31 Villanova 72 65%   
Mon, Feb 9 18 St. John's 88 85 Xavier 73 90%   
Tue, Feb 10 96 Marquette 66 31 Villanova 78 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.1 89.9 9.8 0.3
St. John's 1.9 20.7 71.3 7.9 0.1
Villanova 2.8 1.0 17.1 79.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 4.7 0.0 4.1 55.2 22.8 10.1 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Creighton 5.0 0.1 3.8 39.2 31.0 13.9 6.6 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.0
Providence 7.7 0.1 4.6 10.5 15.4 16.8 16.5 14.7 13.4 8.0
Butler 7.1 0.3 7.8 14.1 17.7 17.5 16.6 13.0 8.9 4.0
Georgetown 6.4 0.5 11.5 20.6 24.2 17.7 12.6 7.7 3.9 1.3
Xavier 8.0 0.2 2.8 6.8 13.0 15.7 18.6 18.9 15.2 9.0
DePaul 7.8 0.1 5.4 9.9 13.0 15.2 16.5 16.9 15.0 8.1
Marquette 9.5 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 7.0 10.6 15.5 22.0 38.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.1 0.7 4.1 14.1 29.5 34.0 17.6
St. John's 16 - 4 23 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.9 7.1 17.8 27.7 26.9 14.7 3.5
Villanova 14 - 6 23 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.3 12.2 22.0 27.4 21.3 9.4 2.1
Seton Hall 10 - 10 20 - 11 0.4 3.4 11.1 22.8 26.9 21.9 10.6 2.5 0.3
Creighton 9 - 11 15 - 16 1.1 6.2 16.9 27.2 25.9 15.5 6.1 1.0 0.1
Providence 7 - 13 14 - 17 0.5 3.1 10.6 21.1 26.0 22.6 11.8 3.7 0.7
Butler 8 - 12 17 - 14 1.3 6.5 17.1 25.6 25.1 16.1 6.5 1.7 0.1
Georgetown 8 - 12 16 - 15 2.0 9.3 22.4 28.7 22.8 11.2 3.2 0.4
Xavier 7 - 13 15 - 16 3.2 13.2 25.0 28.2 19.6 7.8 2.6 0.4 0.0
DePaul 7 - 13 15 - 16 3.0 12.4 23.3 25.8 19.4 11.2 4.1 0.8 0.1
Marquette 6 - 14 11 - 20 5.1 17.0 28.7 26.3 15.3 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 89.9% 78.8 10.7 0.4
St. John's 20.7% 9.9 10.5 0.4
Villanova 1.0% 0.1 0.5 0.4
Seton Hall
Creighton
Providence
Butler
Georgetown
Xavier
DePaul
Marquette


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 56.2% 43.8% 1   37.6 46.7 13.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 99.2% 26.2% 72.9% 6   0.7 2.1 7.1 14.9 19.5 19.9 18.2 10.2 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.8 98.9%
Villanova 90.7% 10.4% 80.3% 8   0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 4.6 8.4 14.8 19.7 21.1 14.2 5.3 0.0 9.3 89.6%
Seton Hall 33.3% 2.3% 31.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 9.9 18.1 0.4 66.7 31.8%
Creighton 4.9% 1.6% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 95.1 3.3%
Providence 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 98.7 0.5%
Butler 5.9% 1.0% 5.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 94.1 5.0%
Georgetown 2.4% 0.7% 1.7% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.2 97.6 1.7%
Xavier 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.3%
DePaul 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.1%
Marquette 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.4 0.0 5.1 54.6 36.7 3.5 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 3.2 0.0 7.6 64.3 26.4 1.7
2nd Round 99.9% 2.4 0.1 9.7 47.7 39.5 3.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 86.5% 1.2 13.5 52.0 31.2 3.3 0.1
Elite Eight 56.4% 0.6 43.6 48.3 7.8 0.3
Final Four 29.8% 0.3 70.2 28.3 1.5 0.0
Final Game 15.0% 0.2 85.0 14.8 0.2
Champion 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.8% 73.2% 45.0% 23.8% 12.3% 5.8%
St. John's 99.2% 0.2% 99.1% 78.1% 36.3% 14.7% 6.0% 2.4% 0.8%
Villanova 90.7% 4.7% 88.6% 49.1% 13.0% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2%
Seton Hall 33.3% 18.0% 23.4% 7.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton 4.9% 2.6% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 5.9% 3.5% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 2.4% 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%