Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Connecticut 94.8%   2   1 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 15 - 5 +19.0      +11.4 2 +7.6 14 61.5 344 -1.0 263 0.0 1
11 St. John's 91.3%   3   1 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 5 +17.4      +9.2 14 +8.2 9 76.3 27 +6.5 57 0.0 1
32 Creighton 68.1%   9   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 8 +13.3      +8.7 18 +4.6 52 68.0 208 +3.3 114 0.0 1
47 Marquette 53.6%   10   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +11.2      +4.8 54 +6.5 29 73.1 72 +5.9 69 0.0 1
48 Villanova 49.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +11.2      +5.3 51 +5.9 35 60.1 355 +4.0 100 0.0 1
62 Providence 29.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +8.6      +5.4 49 +3.2 81 70.6 130 +1.1 147 0.0 1
68 Butler 25.3%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 12 +7.9      +4.4 63 +3.6 77 68.8 179 +2.5 124 0.0 1
70 Xavier 25.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +7.7      +3.3 89 +4.4 53 71.2 112 +8.2 32 0.0 1
77 DePaul 14.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +6.7      +3.8 78 +3.0 86 68.0 207 -0.9 261 0.0 1
81 Georgetown 13.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 +6.4      +3.5 83 +2.9 87 70.0 139 -1.6 273 0.0 1
99 Seton Hall 7.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 6 - 14 +4.4      +1.2 123 +3.2 80 62.5 332 +2.6 123 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 2.1 50.0 23.9 11.7 6.6 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. John's 2.6 35.3 26.4 15.4 9.2 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1
Creighton 4.1 12.7 17.2 17.5 14.8 11.4 8.8 6.5 4.9 3.2 2.1 0.9
Marquette 5.1 5.6 10.3 14.0 14.8 13.9 12.1 9.9 7.7 5.7 3.9 2.2
Villanova 5.2 6.4 10.7 13.8 13.9 13.1 11.5 9.6 7.9 6.1 4.3 2.7
Providence 6.5 2.5 5.1 8.1 10.1 11.4 12.2 12.0 11.7 10.7 9.2 7.0
Butler 6.8 1.7 4.2 7.0 9.1 10.6 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.0 10.6 8.5
Xavier 6.9 1.5 3.9 6.6 9.0 10.3 11.5 12.1 12.3 12.4 11.4 9.1
DePaul 7.4 1.1 2.7 4.9 7.0 8.9 10.7 12.2 13.2 13.6 13.8 12.0
Georgetown 7.6 0.9 2.3 4.5 6.4 8.1 10.4 11.9 12.8 14.1 14.7 14.0
Seton Hall 8.5 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.6 5.5 7.3 9.3 11.9 14.8 19.0 24.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.5 7.6 10.4 12.6 14.5 15.1 13.3 8.4 3.7
St. John's 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.8 10.0 11.7 13.4 13.4 11.8 9.2 5.3 1.9
Creighton 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.6 7.5 8.9 10.7 11.0 11.5 10.8 9.1 7.0 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.2
Marquette 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.8 6.7 8.7 10.3 11.4 11.8 10.9 9.6 7.7 5.5 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1
Villanova 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.0 6.8 8.8 9.6 10.7 11.2 10.5 9.4 7.7 5.9 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
Providence 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.2 4.7 6.7 9.1 10.0 11.2 11.2 10.1 9.0 7.4 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Butler 8 - 12 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.7 6.0 7.8 9.8 10.6 11.4 10.8 10.0 8.3 6.9 5.0 3.2 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Xavier 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.1 8.5 9.8 11.1 11.2 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.4 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
DePaul 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.6 7.6 9.8 10.8 11.4 11.8 10.2 8.8 6.7 5.2 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.4 1.6 3.5 6.2 8.5 10.2 11.1 12.1 11.0 9.8 8.1 6.1 4.7 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 6 - 14 1.4 3.8 6.9 9.6 11.7 12.4 12.0 11.1 9.2 7.2 5.5 3.7 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 50.0% 39.0 9.5 1.3 0.1 0.0
St. John's 35.3% 25.8 8.2 1.2 0.1 0.0
Creighton 12.7% 8.0 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Marquette 5.6% 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Villanova 6.4% 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Providence 2.5% 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Xavier 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 94.8% 36.7% 58.1% 2   19.6 17.5 13.8 11.1 8.8 7.3 5.8 4.4 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.1 5.2 91.7%
St. John's 91.3% 27.2% 64.1% 3   13.9 14.2 12.7 11.2 9.4 8.1 6.9 5.1 4.1 3.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 88.0%
Creighton 68.1% 11.9% 56.2% 9   2.6 3.7 5.7 6.7 6.9 7.5 7.9 7.9 7.6 6.2 4.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.9 63.8%
Marquette 53.6% 6.1% 47.5% 10   0.8 1.4 2.8 3.7 4.8 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.5 6.8 6.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.4 50.6%
Villanova 49.4% 6.7% 42.7% 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.2 5.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.6 45.8%
Providence 29.5% 3.0% 26.5% 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.6 4.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.5 27.3%
Butler 25.3% 2.5% 22.8% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.6 3.8 4.4 4.8 4.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.7 23.4%
Xavier 25.6% 2.2% 23.3% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.3 4.8 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.4 23.8%
DePaul 14.7% 1.7% 13.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.3 13.3%
Georgetown 13.9% 1.4% 12.5% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.1 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.1 12.7%
Seton Hall 7.9% 0.6% 7.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 92.1 7.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 94.8% 1.4% 94.1% 81.6% 54.1% 31.5% 17.5% 9.7% 4.9%
St. John's 91.3% 2.3% 90.1% 74.0% 44.6% 24.3% 12.5% 6.4% 3.2%
Creighton 68.1% 5.1% 65.5% 43.8% 19.9% 8.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
Marquette 53.6% 6.7% 50.3% 29.5% 10.9% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Villanova 49.4% 6.1% 46.3% 28.0% 10.9% 4.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Providence 29.5% 4.9% 26.8% 13.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Butler 25.3% 4.5% 22.8% 11.5% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Xavier 25.6% 5.0% 22.7% 11.3% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
DePaul 14.7% 3.3% 12.9% 6.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 13.9% 2.9% 12.4% 5.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 7.9% 2.0% 6.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.9 9.5 30.8 36.3 18.2 3.9 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 0.1 1.7 13.6 35.3 33.4 13.7 2.1 0.1
2nd Round 99.7% 3.1 0.3 5.0 23.3 38.3 25.1 7.1 0.9 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 88.7% 1.6 11.3 38.0 36.4 12.5 1.7 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 61.2% 0.8 38.8 45.5 14.1 1.5 0.1
Final Four 35.1% 0.4 64.9 31.6 3.4 0.1
Final Game 18.8% 0.2 81.2 18.2 0.6
Champion 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3