Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Connecticut 100.0%   2   14 - 1 4 - 0 27 - 4 17 - 3 +21.8      +9.6 17 +12.2 3 64.1 311 +27.5 5 +21.7 2
20 St. John's 91.6%   7   10 - 5 3 - 1 21 - 10 14 - 6 +16.3      +8.2 29 +8.1 19 73.3 71 +12.0 47 +13.3 5
28 Villanova 94.1%   6   12 - 2 3 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +14.7      +7.6 39 +7.1 27 60.8 359 +20.3 14 +26.1 1
38 Creighton 50.2%   11   9 - 6 3 - 1 18 - 13 12 - 8 +12.8      +6.6 51 +6.2 36 67.9 226 +9.4 67 +13.7 4
53 Seton Hall 56.9%   11   13 - 2 3 - 1 21 - 10 11 - 9 +10.1      +1.2 132 +8.9 13 64.8 297 +16.3 25 +15.9 3
57 Butler 23.3%   10 - 6 1 - 4 18 - 13 9 - 11 +9.4      +5.7 64 +3.7 76 74.4 53 +10.4 61 +5.1 8
67 Providence 11.1%   8 - 6 1 - 2 16 - 15 9 - 11 +8.5      +7.0 48 +1.5 120 76.9 30 +6.3 87 +8.5 7
101 Xavier 1.8%   9 - 6 1 - 3 14 - 17 6 - 14 +5.1      +2.8 108 +2.3 104 73.2 74 +7.7 80 +4.5 9
104 DePaul 1.1%   10 - 6 2 - 3 15 - 16 7 - 13 +4.9      -0.5 181 +5.4 48 68.3 216 +5.7 90 +9.0 6
105 Georgetown 1.4%   9 - 6 1 - 3 14 - 17 6 - 14 +4.9      +3.0 102 +1.9 110 69.8 169 +6.1 89 +1.3 10
107 Marquette 0.2%   5 - 10 0 - 4 10 - 21 5 - 15 +4.4      +1.2 130 +3.2 86 74.3 58 -2.8 219 -7.7 11




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 3 67 Providence 77 20 St. John's 71   
Sat, Jan 3 104 DePaul 86 101 Xavier 77   
Sat, Jan 3 57 Butler 67 28 Villanova 85   
Sun, Jan 4 38 Creighton 54 53 Seton Hall 56   
Sun, Jan 4 107 Marquette 57 5 Connecticut 73   
Tue, Jan 6 57 Butler 70 20 St. John's 84   
Tue, Jan 6 104 DePaul 56 105 Georgetown 50   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 7 38 Creighton 66 28 Villanova 71 68%   
Wed, Jan 7 107 Marquette 79 101 Xavier 77 59%   
Wed, Jan 7 67 Providence 71 5 Connecticut 81 83%   
Sat, Jan 10 38 Creighton 75 20 St. John's 76 52%   
Sat, Jan 10 67 Providence 84 101 Xavier 83 52%   
Sat, Jan 10 105 Georgetown 68 53 Seton Hall 70 58%   
Sat, Jan 10 107 Marquette 67 28 Villanova 74 76%   
Sat, Jan 10 104 DePaul 57 5 Connecticut 77 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.2 82.5 13.0 3.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. John's 2.8 12.4 35.6 28.3 14.1 6.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Villanova 2.7 15.0 37.1 25.2 12.9 6.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Creighton 3.9 3.2 15.1 23.2 26.7 17.1 8.8 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 4.8 1.0 6.4 14.5 23.4 25.0 15.0 8.4 3.9 1.6 0.6 0.2
Butler 6.5 0.0 0.7 3.1 8.9 16.7 22.5 20.5 13.1 7.8 4.7 2.0
Providence 6.5 0.2 1.4 4.7 9.8 15.5 21.2 18.6 12.6 8.3 5.0 2.6
Xavier 8.4 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.3 9.1 13.7 19.2 20.4 18.4 12.7
DePaul 7.9 0.1 0.7 2.9 6.3 11.9 16.5 20.9 19.0 14.3 7.4
Georgetown 8.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 6.2 10.8 16.4 21.3 23.2 17.7
Marquette 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 7.7 12.1 17.0 22.4 34.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 3.4 7.6 13.7 21.3 24.7 19.3 8.2
St. John's 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.4 6.2 11.4 16.4 18.7 17.9 13.6 7.5 2.5 0.5
Villanova 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.6 6.4 10.2 14.0 17.3 17.8 14.1 8.7 4.1 1.2 0.2
Creighton 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.7 11.2 15.0 17.5 17.0 13.1 8.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
Seton Hall 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.8 7.7 12.0 15.9 17.9 16.6 12.1 7.2 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Butler 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 8.1 13.6 17.0 17.7 15.4 11.1 5.9 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Providence 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.5 8.8 12.7 15.6 16.0 14.5 10.8 7.0 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Xavier 6 - 14 0.3 2.1 5.8 11.9 16.6 18.3 16.8 12.9 8.0 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
DePaul 7 - 13 0.7 3.3 8.0 14.5 17.9 18.0 15.7 10.6 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 6 - 14 0.7 3.5 9.3 15.1 18.1 18.8 14.6 9.9 5.6 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Marquette 5 - 15 0.8 3.5 8.1 13.9 18.0 18.1 14.8 10.7 6.4 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 82.5% 71.1 10.0 1.3 0.1 0.0
St. John's 12.4% 6.3 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
Villanova 15.0% 8.2 5.7 1.1 0.1 0.0
Creighton 3.2% 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Providence 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Xavier
DePaul
Georgetown
Marquette


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 55.0% 45.0% 2   36.0 37.3 18.2 6.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 91.6% 18.2% 73.4% 7   0.3 1.2 3.9 8.3 12.5 15.1 17.2 14.4 9.5 6.1 3.0 0.1 0.0 8.4 89.7%
Villanova 94.1% 12.9% 81.2% 6   0.3 1.1 4.7 10.3 15.6 18.1 15.6 11.5 8.9 5.5 2.4 0.0 5.9 93.2%
Creighton 50.2% 7.2% 43.0% 11   0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.8 8.6 9.8 11.0 9.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.8 46.3%
Seton Hall 56.9% 2.9% 54.0% 11   0.1 0.3 0.9 2.9 5.7 9.3 12.3 14.3 11.0 0.2 43.1 55.6%
Butler 23.3% 1.5% 21.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.0 7.2 8.5 0.4 0.0 76.7 22.2%
Providence 11.1% 1.5% 9.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.3 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.9 9.8%
Xavier 1.8% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2 1.6%
DePaul 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.9%
Georgetown 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6 1.2%
Marquette 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 74.4% 47.3% 25.9% 13.6% 6.7%
St. John's 91.6% 3.5% 90.2% 62.6% 26.0% 10.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5%
Villanova 94.1% 2.7% 92.6% 62.0% 23.5% 7.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Creighton 50.2% 10.1% 45.6% 23.4% 5.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Seton Hall 56.9% 11.8% 50.0% 20.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Butler 23.3% 9.0% 18.4% 6.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 11.1% 3.9% 9.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.3 0.0 0.7 14.3 44.4 33.8 6.4 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 4.1 0.0 1.5 21.0 48.2 25.9 3.4 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 2.8 0.1 6.0 31.6 42.9 17.4 1.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 89.1% 1.4 10.9 49.7 33.2 6.0 0.3
Elite Eight 59.4% 0.7 40.7 50.3 8.8 0.3 0.0
Final Four 32.0% 0.3 68.0 30.6 1.4
Final Game 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.6 0.2
Champion 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4