Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Connecticut 100.0%   1   26 - 3 16 - 2 +20.9      +10.3 18 +10.6 9 63.8 307 +25.0 4 +21.9 2
21 St. John's 99.5%   6   22 - 6 15 - 2 +17.1      +7.0 51 +10.1 14 73.4 53 +17.5 22 +22.5 1
32 Villanova 96.3%   7   22 - 6 13 - 4 +14.4      +8.0 41 +6.5 35 62.8 328 +17.0 24 +17.0 3
55 Seton Hall 30.0%   19 - 9 9 - 8 +10.0      -0.7 180 +10.6 10 64.6 284 +11.3 52 +10.1 4
60 Providence 1.1%   13 - 15 6 - 11 +9.1      +9.4 23 -0.3 178 76.8 19 +6.6 88 +6.7 7
70 Creighton 1.6%   14 - 15 8 - 10 +8.4      +6.1 56 +2.3 109 68.0 194 +8.2 73 +9.2 5
75 Butler 0.7%   15 - 14 6 - 12 +7.7      +5.8 59 +1.9 122 70.7 119 +8.3 72 +6.4 8
82 Georgetown 0.3%   13 - 15 5 - 12 +7.1      +3.8 83 +3.4 85 66.7 236 +6.1 91 +4.9 11
83 Marquette 0.4%   10 - 18 5 - 12 +7.1      +3.2 100 +3.9 71 71.9 92 +3.3 111 +5.0 10
88 Xavier 0.3%   13 - 15 5 - 12 +6.6      +4.6 71 +2.0 115 74.0 42 +6.9 86 +5.3 9
89 DePaul 0.5%   15 - 13 7 - 10 +6.2      +0.5 153 +5.7 41 66.4 244 +7.2 81 +8.7 6


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 24 82 Georgetown 60 83 Marquette 76   
Wed, Feb 25 75 Butler 73 32 Villanova 82   
Wed, Feb 25 70 Creighton 71 89 DePaul 72   
Wed, Feb 25 60 Providence 94 88 Xavier 84   
Wed, Feb 25 21 St. John's 40 9 Connecticut 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 28 21 St. John's 75 32 Villanova 70 71%   
Sat, Feb 28 70 Creighton 86 60 Providence 84 59%   
Sat, Feb 28 82 Georgetown 76 88 Xavier 79 60%   
Sat, Feb 28 55 Seton Hall 57 9 Connecticut 71 90%   
Sun, Mar 1 89 DePaul 70 83 Marquette 74 65%   
Tue, Mar 3 55 Seton Hall 71 88 Xavier 70 51%   
Tue, Mar 3 82 Georgetown 68 21 St. John's 81 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.1 90.1 9.9
St. John's 1.5 51.6 47.7 0.8
Villanova 2.9 0.2 8.4 91.4
Seton Hall 4.1 90.5 9.0 0.5
Providence 6.6 3.6 17.0 24.7 35.3 9.9 4.9 4.3 0.4
Creighton 4.9 33.6 50.0 13.1 3.3
Butler 7.4 6.7 20.7 23.9 30.4 14.5 3.6 0.2
Georgetown 9.2 0.5 2.5 14.2 14.6 23.0 22.5 22.7
Marquette 9.0 0.7 4.3 14.7 14.4 23.4 28.8 13.7
Xavier 8.8 0.5 4.0 14.5 22.0 25.3 17.8 16.0
DePaul 5.8 11.6 27.0 41.8 11.8 7.4 0.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 18 - 2 28 - 3 1.7 21.1 77.2
St. John's 17 - 3 24 - 7 1.3 14.3 43.0 41.4
Villanova 15 - 5 24 - 7 3.6 28.0 50.0 18.4
Seton Hall 10 - 10 20 - 11 30.3 46.1 21.9 1.8
Providence 8 - 12 15 - 16 10.5 37.2 38.7 13.7
Creighton 9 - 11 15 - 16 24.4 50.3 25.3
Butler 7 - 13 16 - 15 23.8 49.7 26.5
Georgetown 6 - 14 14 - 17 25.9 46.7 24.8 2.6
Marquette 6 - 14 11 - 20 21.8 48.5 26.3 3.4
Xavier 6 - 14 14 - 17 18.2 44.6 32.0 5.2
DePaul 8 - 12 16 - 15 20.7 42.7 29.7 6.9

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 90.1% 48.4 41.6 0.1
St. John's 51.6% 9.9 41.5 0.1
Villanova 0.2% 0.0 0.1
Seton Hall
Providence
Creighton
Butler
Georgetown
Marquette
Xavier
DePaul


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1   34.2 50.4 13.2 2.1 0.1 100.0%
St. John's 99.5% 26.2% 73.4% 6   0.1 0.9 4.0 9.8 26.6 34.2 17.9 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 99.3%
Villanova 96.3% 12.6% 83.8% 7   0.0 0.2 0.9 4.5 14.1 25.9 22.5 17.9 8.5 1.9 3.7 95.8%
Seton Hall 30.0% 3.1% 26.9% 0.1 0.4 1.6 7.1 19.5 1.3 70.0 27.8%
Providence 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.1%
Creighton 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 98.5 0.3%
Butler 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 99.3 0.1%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Marquette 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 99.6 0.0%
Xavier 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
DePaul 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.5 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.3 0.0 2.5 65.2 31.4 0.9
1st Round 100.0% 3.2 0.0 3.5 74.4 21.6 0.4
2nd Round 99.9% 2.4 0.1 9.9 46.6 41.5 2.0
Sweet Sixteen 85.2% 1.2 14.9 54.8 27.7 2.6 0.0
Elite Eight 51.7% 0.6 48.3 46.0 5.6 0.2
Final Four 23.6% 0.2 76.4 22.9 0.7 0.0
Final Game 9.7% 0.1 90.3 9.6 0.0
Champion 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.7% 72.5% 41.8% 19.2% 8.4% 3.5%
St. John's 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 76.9% 31.8% 11.3% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Villanova 96.3% 1.5% 95.7% 53.4% 12.9% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Seton Hall 30.0% 18.6% 19.2% 5.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton 1.6% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%