Big East
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Connecticut 99.7%   4   17 - 6 6 - 6 23 - 8 12 - 8 +17.2      +9.2 11 +8.0 18 69.0 157 +14.8 18 +9.5 6
8 Marquette 99.6%   3   18 - 5 10 - 2 24 - 7 16 - 4 +16.0      +11.3 1 +4.7 55 73.1 59 +16.0 15 +19.9 2
11 Creighton 89.0%   5   14 - 8 8 - 3 20 - 11 14 - 6 +15.4      +7.1 27 +8.2 17 69.8 124 +11.5 40 +16.1 4
19 Xavier 99.9%   4   18 - 5 10 - 2 23 - 8 15 - 5 +13.9      +10.7 4 +3.2 89 76.3 26 +16.9 10 +20.6 1
25 Providence 84.0%   7   17 - 6 9 - 3 22 - 9 14 - 6 +13.0      +7.9 19 +5.1 50 67.3 202 +14.1 20 +18.0 3
41 Seton Hall 42.1%   13 - 9 7 - 5 17 - 13 11 - 9 +10.7      +2.4 108 +8.4 14 67.1 210 +11.0 48 +12.7 5
62 Villanova 3.9%   10 - 12 4 - 7 14 - 17 8 - 12 +8.4      +5.5 45 +2.9 94 60.9 343 +5.2 93 +5.4 7
72 St. John's 3.5%   14 - 9 4 - 8 17 - 14 7 - 13 +7.6      +3.2 85 +4.4 62 82.4 1 +8.1 66 +4.8 8
86 Butler 1.7%   11 - 12 3 - 9 14 - 17 6 - 14 +5.8      +1.5 127 +4.3 65 65.9 253 +6.8 81 +3.7 9
124 DePaul 0.6%   9 - 14 3 - 9 11 - 20 5 - 15 +2.5      +2.7 99 -0.1 177 71.9 85 +3.0 125 +2.5 10
186 Georgetown 0.2%   6 - 17 1 - 11 7 - 24 2 - 18 -0.9      +0.7 149 -1.6 233 71.2 101 -4.1 244 -4.9 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 4.8 0.1 2.0 8.4 22.0 43.8 22.6 1.0 0.1
Marquette 1.6 62.5 23.6 10.4 3.1 0.4 0.0
Creighton 2.9 16.4 22.8 26.3 23.2 8.4 2.8 0.1 0.0
Xavier 1.9 42.5 31.1 17.8 7.3 1.1 0.1
Providence 2.9 14.9 25.0 27.9 23.9 6.7 1.7 0.0
Seton Hall 5.2 0.2 1.5 4.8 13.0 31.5 46.0 2.9 0.2 0.0
Villanova 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 7.8 53.8 26.1 8.9 1.6
St. John's 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 40.3 37.3 15.8 3.6 0.1
Butler 8.5 0.0 0.4 18.8 27.0 39.7 13.5 0.5
DePaul 9.4 0.0 0.1 3.7 10.5 27.1 57.3 1.3
Georgetown 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 6.9 91.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 12 - 8 0.0 0.4 2.4 8.6 20.9 31.6 26.6 9.6
Marquette 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 10.5 24.7 33.8 22.2 5.7
Creighton 14 - 6 0.1 0.7 3.1 9.7 19.0 26.3 24.1 13.6 3.4
Xavier 15 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.7 18.0 28.7 27.7 14.0 3.1
Providence 14 - 6 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.0 19.2 28.9 26.2 12.8 2.5
Seton Hall 11 - 9 0.1 1.1 6.6 17.8 28.3 26.3 14.9 4.5 0.6
Villanova 8 - 12 0.7 5.4 16.2 25.6 25.5 16.7 7.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
St. John's 7 - 13 2.1 10.4 22.7 27.8 22.1 10.8 3.5 0.6 0.0
Butler 6 - 14 1.6 10.7 24.9 29.2 21.1 9.6 2.4 0.4 0.0
DePaul 5 - 15 14.8 33.6 30.8 15.2 4.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 2 - 18 35.2 38.9 19.1 5.6 1.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marquette 62.5% 38.5 18.2 5.0 0.7 0.0
Creighton 16.4% 5.4 7.0 3.3 0.7 0.0
Xavier 42.5% 22.1 15.0 4.7 0.7 0.0
Providence 14.9% 4.4 6.5 3.3 0.7 0.0
Seton Hall 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Villanova
St. John's
Butler
DePaul
Georgetown


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 99.7% 25.0% 74.7% 4   3.9 10.0 22.2 24.6 20.0 11.9 3.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.5%
Marquette 99.6% 19.5% 80.1% 3   4.6 14.2 29.0 26.2 15.2 7.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 99.5%
Creighton 89.0% 17.6% 71.4% 5   0.7 2.5 7.8 12.6 15.6 16.4 13.1 8.6 4.7 4.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 86.6%
Xavier 99.9% 12.5% 87.5% 4   2.0 10.0 21.4 26.7 21.1 11.1 5.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Providence 84.0% 10.4% 73.7% 7   0.1 0.5 2.1 4.8 9.7 12.7 15.8 14.4 10.4 8.4 5.0 0.1 16.0 82.2%
Seton Hall 42.1% 6.2% 35.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 3.0 5.8 7.7 10.4 11.1 1.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 57.9 38.2%
Villanova 3.9% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.2 96.1 0.2%
St. John's 3.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 96.5 0.7%
Butler 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 98.3 0.0%
DePaul 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Georgetown 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Connecticut 99.7% 0.2% 99.6% 86.8% 57.5% 32.5% 18.2% 9.9% 5.2%
Marquette 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 86.2% 54.2% 28.3% 14.4% 7.2% 3.4%
Creighton 89.0% 2.8% 88.0% 66.0% 36.2% 18.4% 9.2% 4.4% 2.0%
Xavier 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 78.7% 42.6% 18.5% 8.1% 3.4% 1.5%
Providence 84.0% 5.7% 81.5% 49.6% 20.7% 9.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Seton Hall 42.1% 12.3% 35.9% 16.9% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Villanova 3.9% 2.1% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's 3.5% 0.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 1.7% 1.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.4 11.8 53.1 32.6 2.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.7 14.8 56.4 26.8 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 3.9 0.0 0.8 6.9 25.9 40.9 22.9 2.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 96.2% 2.2 3.8 21.1 38.8 27.6 7.8 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 73.9% 1.1 26.1 44.8 23.6 5.1 0.4 0.0
Final Four 46.1% 0.5 53.9 38.3 7.4 0.4 0.0
Final Game 25.3% 0.3 74.7 24.0 1.3
Champion 12.6% 0.1 87.4 12.6