Marquette
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#21
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#37
Pace76.7#35
Improvement+0.6#2

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#24
First Shot+8.3#15
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#247
Layup/Dunks+7.0#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#41
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+0.4#5

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#38
First Shot+5.7#42
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#99
Layups/Dunks+5.7#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#255
Freethrows+1.0#129
Improvement+0.2#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 2.4% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 5.3% 6.7% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 21.9% 26.3% 10.3%
Top 6 Seed 45.9% 52.0% 29.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.1% 88.3% 73.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.0% 86.6% 70.6%
Average Seed 6.3 6.0 7.2
.500 or above 97.1% 98.5% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.5% 91.2% 84.9%
Conference Champion 11.0% 12.5% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four3.9% 3.2% 5.8%
First Round82.4% 86.9% 70.8%
Second Round56.4% 61.0% 44.5%
Sweet Sixteen26.7% 29.8% 18.6%
Elite Eight11.6% 13.3% 7.3%
Final Four5.0% 5.8% 2.9%
Championship Game2.0% 2.4% 1.0%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.3%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 35 - 116 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 208   Radford W 79-69 95%     1 - 0 +4.9 -5.1 +8.8
  Nov 10, 2022 244   Central Michigan W 97-73 97%     2 - 0 +16.9 +7.3 +6.1
  Nov 15, 2022 3   @ Purdue L 70-75 21%     2 - 1 +17.7 +10.0 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2022 350   LIU Brooklyn W 95-58 99%     3 - 1 +20.2 +3.3 +12.1
  Nov 21, 2022 28   Mississippi St. L 55-58 55%     3 - 2 +9.9 -3.1 +12.8
  Nov 23, 2022 113   Georgia Tech W 84-60 84%     4 - 2 +27.9 +13.5 +13.8
  Nov 26, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 82-68 99%     5 - 2 -4.4 -8.6 +3.3
  Nov 29, 2022 19   Baylor W 96-70 59%     6 - 2 +37.8 +24.8 +13.3
  Dec 03, 2022 35   Wisconsin W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 06, 2022 269   NC Central W 85-62 98%    
  Dec 11, 2022 77   @ Notre Dame W 76-72 65%    
  Dec 16, 2022 8   Creighton L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 20, 2022 93   @ Providence W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 27, 2022 52   Seton Hall W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 31, 2022 80   @ Villanova W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 03, 2023 42   @ St. John's W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 178   Georgetown W 87-69 95%    
  Jan 11, 2023 2   Connecticut L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 15, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 18, 2023 93   Providence W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 21, 2023 52   @ Seton Hall W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 28, 2023 117   @ DePaul W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 01, 2023 80   Villanova W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 55   Butler W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 07, 2023 2   @ Connecticut L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 11, 2023 178   @ Georgetown W 84-72 85%    
  Feb 15, 2023 27   Xavier W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 21, 2023 8   @ Creighton L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 117   DePaul W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 28, 2023 55   @ Butler W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 04, 2023 42   St. John's W 84-77 73%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 6.9 4.8 1.6 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 7.7 7.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 23.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.0 6.5 4.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 17.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.9 8.1 10.8 12.8 14.9 14.4 12.2 8.4 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.6% 2.1    1.7 0.4
17-3 67.4% 3.3    1.9 1.2 0.1
16-4 35.2% 3.0    1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 12.3% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
14-6 2.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.0 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.4% 56.6% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.2% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 2.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.9% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.9 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.4% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 3.8 0.2 0.8 2.5 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.9%
15-5 12.2% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.4% 99.4% 12.5% 86.9% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.8 4.4 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 14.9% 98.0% 11.7% 86.3% 6.9 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.9 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.7%
12-8 12.8% 91.9% 8.9% 83.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 3.2 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 1.0 91.1%
11-9 10.8% 80.3% 8.8% 71.5% 9.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 78.4%
10-10 8.1% 58.8% 6.5% 52.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 55.9%
9-11 4.9% 25.3% 4.9% 20.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 21.4%
8-12 2.8% 7.6% 3.8% 3.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.9%
7-13 1.6% 3.3% 3.1% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.3%
6-14 0.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 84.1% 11.6% 72.5% 6.3 1.8 3.5 6.9 9.7 11.2 12.8 11.4 9.5 7.1 5.2 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.9 82.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 79.5 20.5