Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#105
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#198
Pace73.6#70
Improvement-3.0#337

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#135
First Shot+2.0#118
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#242
Layup/Dunks+4.6#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#195
Freethrows+2.1#63
Improvement-1.9#317

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#81
First Shot+1.1#129
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#42
Layups/Dunks-1.2#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#171
Freethrows+1.5#84
Improvement-1.1#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.4 13.0
.500 or above 2.7% 5.1% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 9.3% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.7% 25.1% 45.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Home) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 23 - 64 - 18
Quad 32 - 36 - 21
Quad 45 - 011 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 310 Albany W 80-53 92%     1 - 0 +15.3 -6.5 +19.5
  Wed, Nov 5 223 Southern W 100-82 85%     2 - 0 +11.2 +13.3 -4.2
  Sun, Nov 9 28 Indiana L 77-100 17%     2 - 1 -8.4 +6.0 -12.7
  Wed, Nov 12 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-49 92%     3 - 1 +28.5 +15.5 +14.9
  Sat, Nov 15 95 Maryland L 82-89 56%     3 - 2 -4.2 +2.9 -6.5
  Wed, Nov 19 68 Dayton L 71-77 OT 47%     3 - 3 -1.0 -7.5 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 22 322 Central Michigan W 85-71 93%     4 - 3 +1.3 +3.7 -2.7
  Fri, Nov 28 48 Oklahoma L 74-75 27%     4 - 4 +9.7 +11.7 -2.1
  Tue, Dec 2 216 Valparaiso W 75-72 OT 85%     5 - 4 -3.7 -6.5 +2.6
  Sat, Dec 6 47 @Wisconsin L 76-96 18%     5 - 5 -6.1 +1.5 -5.5
  Sat, Dec 13 5 @Purdue L 59-79 4%     5 - 6 +4.7 +0.1 +3.2
  Wed, Dec 17 100 Georgetown L 69-78 58%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -6.7 +2.6 -10.1
  Sat, Dec 20 37 @Creighton L 63-84 14%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -4.9 -7.7 +4.7
  Tue, Dec 30 51 Seton Hall L 68-71 39%    
  Sun, Jan 4 7 @Connecticut L 61-81 3%    
  Wed, Jan 7 98 Xavier W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 34 Villanova L 67-73 28%    
  Tue, Jan 13 20 @St. John's L 70-85 8%    
  Fri, Jan 16 113 @DePaul L 71-73 43%    
  Mon, Jan 19 78 Providence W 83-82 50%    
  Fri, Jan 23 55 @Butler L 74-82 22%    
  Tue, Jan 27 37 Creighton L 71-77 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 51 @Seton Hall L 65-74 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 55 Butler L 77-79 41%    
  Tue, Feb 10 34 @Villanova L 64-76 14%    
  Sat, Feb 14 98 @Xavier L 74-78 35%    
  Wed, Feb 18 20 St. John's L 73-82 21%    
  Tue, Feb 24 100 @Georgetown L 74-78 35%    
  Sun, Mar 1 113 DePaul W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Mar 4 78 @Providence L 79-85 30%    
  Sat, Mar 7 7 Connecticut L 64-78 10%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.4 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 6.0 7.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.4 8.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 22.4 10th
11th 0.5 2.5 6.0 8.1 6.1 2.1 0.2 25.4 11th
Total 0.5 2.5 6.5 11.1 14.8 17.0 15.5 12.8 8.7 5.6 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 24.2% 1.6% 22.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 23.0%
12-8 0.6% 12.5% 3.6% 8.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.3%
11-9 1.4% 1.9% 0.2% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.6%
10-10 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 2.8
9-11 5.6% 0.7% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 5.6
8-12 8.7% 0.3% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
7-13 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 15.4
5-15 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.0
4-16 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.8
3-17 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
2-18 6.5% 6.5
1-19 2.5% 2.5
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%