Marquette
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#13
Expected Predictive Rating+17.1#5
Pace72.1#78
Improvement-1.8#273

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#21
First Shot+8.6#13
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#213
Layup/Dunks+8.5#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#42
Freethrows+1.5#73
Improvement+0.2#179

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#17
First Shot+3.5#63
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#1
Layups/Dunks+4.8#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#318
Freethrows+2.2#46
Improvement-2.0#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.6% 5.5% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 25.5% 29.4% 10.7%
Top 4 Seed 86.4% 91.0% 69.4%
Top 6 Seed 98.0% 99.4% 92.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Average Seed 3.3 3.1 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round89.7% 91.1% 84.5%
Sweet Sixteen56.7% 58.7% 49.1%
Elite Eight26.4% 27.8% 21.0%
Final Four11.8% 12.4% 9.3%
Championship Game5.0% 5.3% 3.9%
National Champion2.0% 2.1% 1.5%

Next Game: Xavier (Home) - 79.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 25 - 113 - 7
Quad 34 - 117 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 314   Northern Illinois W 92-70 99%     1 - 0 +10.2 +8.6 +0.6
  Nov 10, 2023 245   Rider W 95-65 97%     2 - 0 +23.1 +12.1 +9.2
  Nov 14, 2023 11   @ Illinois W 71-64 38%     3 - 0 +26.0 +4.3 +21.8
  Nov 20, 2023 80   UCLA W 71-69 80%     4 - 0 +8.9 +9.0 +0.1
  Nov 21, 2023 14   Kansas W 73-59 51%     5 - 0 +29.6 +9.5 +20.1
  Nov 22, 2023 1   Purdue L 75-78 31%     5 - 1 +17.9 +11.9 +5.9
  Nov 28, 2023 262   Southern W 93-56 98%     6 - 1 +29.2 +16.6 +11.5
  Dec 02, 2023 25   @ Wisconsin L 64-75 50%     6 - 2 +4.8 +1.9 +2.3
  Dec 06, 2023 28   Texas W 86-65 73%     7 - 2 +30.5 +13.4 +16.3
  Dec 09, 2023 124   Notre Dame W 78-59 92%     8 - 2 +19.2 +12.2 +7.6
  Dec 14, 2023 179   St. Thomas W 84-79 95%     9 - 2 +1.2 +7.5 -6.3
  Dec 19, 2023 44   @ Providence L 57-72 59%     9 - 3 0 - 1 -1.6 -8.5 +7.3
  Dec 22, 2023 167   Georgetown W 81-51 95%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +27.0 -1.0 +26.5
  Dec 30, 2023 10   Creighton W 72-67 57%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +19.0 +3.6 +15.4
  Jan 06, 2024 51   @ Seton Hall L 75-78 62%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +9.7 +9.2 +0.6
  Jan 10, 2024 56   Butler L 62-69 81%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -0.3 -11.4 +11.4
  Jan 15, 2024 29   Villanova W 87-74 73%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +22.5 +26.6 -3.2
  Jan 20, 2024 39   @ St. John's W 73-72 58%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +14.6 +6.6 +8.0
  Jan 24, 2024 288   @ DePaul W 86-73 96%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +9.1 +12.6 -3.2
  Jan 27, 2024 51   Seton Hall W 75-57 79%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +25.2 +14.9 +12.3
  Jan 30, 2024 29   @ Villanova W 85-80 53%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +19.9 +21.1 -1.2
  Feb 03, 2024 167   @ Georgetown W 91-57 89%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +36.4 +15.2 +21.0
  Feb 10, 2024 39   St. John's W 86-75 77%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +19.2 +20.3 -0.6
  Feb 13, 2024 56   @ Butler W 78-72 64%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +18.2 +8.0 +10.0
  Feb 17, 2024 3   @ Connecticut L 53-81 24%     19 - 6 10 - 4 -4.7 -5.5 -2.0
  Feb 21, 2024 288   DePaul W 105-71 98%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +24.7 +19.7 +2.5
  Feb 25, 2024 49   Xavier W 82-74 79%    
  Feb 28, 2024 44   Providence W 76-68 78%    
  Mar 02, 2024 10   @ Creighton L 73-77 35%    
  Mar 06, 2024 3   Connecticut L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 09, 2024 49   @ Xavier W 80-77 60%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 2.3 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 5.6 27.2 24.5 4.7 62.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.2 16.8 7.8 27.8 3rd
4th 0.2 4.6 1.4 6.2 4th
5th 0.6 0.3 0.9 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.1 8.1 23.8 35.1 25.0 7.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 32.8% 2.3    0.2 2.1
15-5 2.1% 0.5    0.4 0.2
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 2.8% 2.8 0.2 2.5 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 7.0% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 1.8 2.1 3.8 1.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 25.0% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.5 1.9 10.4 10.9 1.8 0.0 100.0%
14-6 35.1% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 3.1 0.5 6.1 17.7 9.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-7 23.8% 99.9% 12.5% 87.4% 3.9 0.0 0.6 6.4 11.3 4.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 8.1% 99.7% 11.6% 88.1% 5.2 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-9 1.1% 95.5% 9.8% 85.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.0%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 14.9% 85.0% 3.3 4.6 20.9 36.2 24.7 8.7 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.0% 100.0% 1.8 30.6 54.3 14.9 0.2
Lose Out 1.1% 95.5% 8.1 0.2 3.6 18.2 41.5 24.6 7.3 0.2