Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#78
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#83
Pace72.1#116
Improvement+4.1#10

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#98
First Shot+2.0#118
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#124
Layup/Dunks-3.6#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#23
Freethrows-2.1#296
Improvement+3.3#6

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#65
First Shot-1.2#213
After Offensive Rebounds+5.4#3
Layups/Dunks-3.6#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#28
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement+0.8#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 16.1% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.3% 14.8% 6.9%
Average Seed 9.5 9.4 9.7
.500 or above 50.4% 60.8% 37.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.1% 34.2% 24.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 13.5% 11.4% 16.2%
First Four4.1% 5.0% 2.9%
First Round10.1% 13.4% 6.0%
Second Round3.9% 5.2% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Home) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 10
Quad 25 - 57 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 151 Marist W 66-62 83%     1 - 0 +1.2 -0.7 +2.1
  Thu, Nov 6 320 Le Moyne W 74-69 95%     2 - 0 -7.1 -7.1 +0.1
  Mon, Nov 10 52 Santa Clara L 68-87 50%     2 - 1 -11.8 -3.3 -8.1
  Fri, Nov 14 26 @Iowa L 62-81 18%     2 - 2 -1.9 -3.4 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 18 220 Old Dominion W 99-69 90%     3 - 2 +23.3 +15.9 +5.6
  Fri, Nov 21 21 Georgia L 77-78 22%     3 - 3 +14.5 +7.5 +7.0
  Sun, Nov 23 68 West Virginia W 78-68 46%     4 - 3 +18.3 +13.8 +4.9
  Fri, Nov 28 238 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88-67 91%     5 - 3 +13.5 +7.7 +4.4
  Mon, Dec 1 357 St. Francis (PA) W 96-74 98%     6 - 3 +5.3 +7.5 -4.3
  Fri, Dec 5 64 Cincinnati W 74-73 56%    
  Fri, Dec 12 240 Missouri St. W 76-61 92%    
  Wed, Dec 17 49 Creighton L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Dec 20 82 @Georgetown L 73-76 40%    
  Wed, Dec 31 4 Connecticut L 66-76 17%    
  Sat, Jan 3 118 @DePaul W 74-73 54%    
  Wed, Jan 7 79 @Marquette L 74-77 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 73 Providence W 83-80 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 47 Butler L 77-78 46%    
  Wed, Jan 21 49 @Creighton L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 15 St. John's L 76-83 25%    
  Wed, Jan 28 76 @Seton Hall L 67-70 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 118 DePaul W 77-70 74%    
  Tue, Feb 3 4 @Connecticut L 63-79 7%    
  Mon, Feb 9 15 @St. John's L 73-86 11%    
  Sat, Feb 14 79 Marquette W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 41 Villanova L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 47 @Butler L 74-81 27%    
  Tue, Feb 24 73 @Providence L 80-83 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 82 Georgetown W 76-73 62%    
  Tue, Mar 3 76 Seton Hall W 70-67 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 41 @Villanova L 66-74 25%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 3.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.6 3.5 0.8 0.1 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.8 4.0 0.8 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.5 2.8 0.7 0.0 11.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.5 8.7 11.2 13.3 13.6 12.7 10.7 8.1 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 90.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 64.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 41.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 17.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 94.8% 11.2% 83.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.1%
14-6 1.7% 87.5% 9.4% 78.1% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 86.2%
13-7 3.1% 75.1% 4.6% 70.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.8 73.9%
12-8 5.2% 55.1% 4.3% 50.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.4 53.1%
11-9 8.1% 31.8% 2.8% 28.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.1 5.5 29.8%
10-10 10.7% 12.9% 1.3% 11.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 9.3 11.8%
9-11 12.7% 2.9% 0.8% 2.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.3 2.1%
8-12 13.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0%
7-13 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 13.3
6-14 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
5-15 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 8.7
4-16 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.4% 1.3% 11.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.5 3.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.6 11.3%