Xavier
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#49
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#73
Pace75.0#36
Improvement-2.0#278

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#48
First Shot+4.8#57
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#122
Layup/Dunks+2.8#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#214
Freethrows+1.3#80
Improvement+1.9#79

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#51
First Shot+4.6#36
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks+1.5#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#30
Freethrows+1.4#87
Improvement-3.8#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 4.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 34.3% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.5% 30.4% 5.2%
Average Seed 10.3 9.1 11.4
.500 or above 59.6% 91.7% 51.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 91.7% 51.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.4% 10.9% 3.9%
First Round12.5% 29.2% 8.0%
Second Round5.3% 14.1% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 4.2% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 21.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 23 - 37 - 13
Quad 33 - 210 - 15
Quad 46 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 298   Robert Morris W 77-63 96%     1 - 0 +3.8 -4.6 +7.9
  Nov 10, 2023 276   Jacksonville W 79-56 95%     2 - 0 +14.4 +3.0 +10.9
  Nov 13, 2023 1   @ Purdue L 71-83 11%     2 - 1 +11.6 +4.3 +7.7
  Nov 17, 2023 62   Washington L 71-74 55%     2 - 2 +5.9 -5.5 +11.7
  Nov 19, 2023 24   St. Mary's W 66-49 39%     3 - 2 +30.2 +4.5 +26.7
  Nov 24, 2023 181   Bryant W 100-75 90%     4 - 2 +21.1 +11.8 +5.1
  Nov 27, 2023 130   Oakland L 76-78 84%     4 - 3 -2.5 +5.2 -7.8
  Dec 01, 2023 2   Houston L 60-66 23%     4 - 4 +12.0 -2.5 +14.6
  Dec 05, 2023 165   Delaware L 80-87 89%     4 - 5 -9.9 +2.4 -12.1
  Dec 09, 2023 47   Cincinnati W 84-79 60%     5 - 5 +12.8 +10.0 +2.4
  Dec 16, 2023 169   Winthrop W 75-59 89%     6 - 5 +12.8 +4.5 +9.4
  Dec 20, 2023 39   @ St. John's L 66-81 37%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -1.4 -4.7 +4.3
  Dec 23, 2023 51   Seton Hall W 74-54 62%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +27.2 +13.4 +15.9
  Jan 03, 2024 29   @ Villanova L 65-66 32%     7 - 7 1 - 2 +13.9 +5.9 +8.0
  Jan 10, 2024 3   Connecticut L 75-80 24%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +12.8 +9.4 +3.4
  Jan 13, 2024 44   @ Providence W 85-65 38%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +33.4 +25.6 +8.8
  Jan 16, 2024 56   Butler W 85-71 64%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +20.7 +10.2 +9.8
  Jan 19, 2024 167   Georgetown W 92-91 89%     10 - 8 4 - 3 -2.0 +8.0 -10.1
  Jan 23, 2024 10   @ Creighton L 78-85 19%     10 - 9 4 - 4 +12.5 +14.4 -2.0
  Jan 28, 2024 3   @ Connecticut L 56-99 12%     10 - 10 4 - 5 -19.7 -9.2 -9.3
  Jan 31, 2024 39   St. John's W 88-77 58%     11 - 10 5 - 5 +19.2 +14.6 +4.0
  Feb 03, 2024 288   @ DePaul W 93-68 90%     12 - 10 6 - 5 +21.1 +13.8 +6.2
  Feb 07, 2024 29   Villanova W 56-53 53%     13 - 10 7 - 5 +12.5 -2.7 +15.6
  Feb 10, 2024 10   Creighton L 71-78 36%     13 - 11 7 - 6 +7.0 -0.7 +8.1
  Feb 14, 2024 51   @ Seton Hall L 70-88 40%     13 - 12 7 - 7 -5.3 +6.6 -12.4
  Feb 21, 2024 44   Providence L 75-79 59%     13 - 13 7 - 8 +3.9 +9.9 -6.1
  Feb 25, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 74-82 21%    
  Feb 28, 2024 288   DePaul W 86-66 97%    
  Mar 02, 2024 167   @ Georgetown W 83-75 76%    
  Mar 06, 2024 56   @ Butler L 77-79 42%    
  Mar 09, 2024 13   Marquette L 77-80 40%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.8 0.8 3rd
4th 0.5 1.7 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 5.0 12.9 0.8 18.7 5th
6th 1.1 21.6 5.4 0.0 28.1 6th
7th 0.0 9.2 9.8 0.1 19.0 7th
8th 1.2 17.9 1.1 20.2 8th
9th 0.4 7.3 3.3 10.9 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 8.5 31.5 37.4 18.9 3.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 3.4% 91.4% 7.1% 84.3% 7.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 90.8%
11-9 18.9% 37.5% 6.2% 31.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4 2.9 0.0 11.8 33.3%
10-10 37.4% 8.2% 5.0% 3.2% 11.3 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 34.3 3.4%
9-11 31.5% 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 30.0 0.0%
8-12 8.5% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.0 0.3 8.2
7-13 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.0% 5.0% 9.9% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.7 5.0 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 85.0 10.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 91.4% 7.2 0.9 7.8 20.2 25.3 22.9 10.3 3.8 0.2
Lose Out 0.4% 3.4% 15.3 2.2 1.1