Xavier
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#20
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#12
Pace76.8#24
Improvement-0.1#209

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#4
First Shot+10.9#2
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#214
Layup/Dunks+7.8#6
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#123
Freethrows+1.4#83
Improvement-0.3#247

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#80
First Shot+1.7#121
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#40
Layups/Dunks-0.6#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#186
Freethrows+2.6#28
Improvement+0.2#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 10.2% 14.1% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 52.7% 62.9% 34.0%
Top 6 Seed 87.3% 93.3% 76.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Average Seed 4.5 4.1 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 36.7% 47.3% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Second Round77.4% 80.6% 71.5%
Sweet Sixteen41.3% 44.6% 35.2%
Elite Eight18.6% 20.4% 15.2%
Final Four7.7% 8.7% 6.0%
Championship Game3.3% 3.7% 2.5%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 1.0%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 6
Quad 25 - 113 - 7
Quad 34 - 116 - 8
Quad 47 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 291   Morgan St. W 96-73 98%     1 - 0 +13.4 +6.7 +3.5
  Nov 11, 2022 190   Montana W 86-64 94%     2 - 0 +18.2 +16.7 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2022 233   Fairfield W 78-65 96%     3 - 0 +6.6 -0.2 +6.2
  Nov 18, 2022 16   Indiana L 79-81 59%     3 - 1 +9.6 +9.3 +0.3
  Nov 24, 2022 44   Florida W 90-83 63%     4 - 1 +17.6 +18.0 -1.1
  Nov 25, 2022 22   Duke L 64-71 52%     4 - 2 +6.5 +2.1 +4.0
  Nov 27, 2022 13   Gonzaga L 84-88 46%     4 - 3 +10.9 +10.3 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2022 271   SE Louisiana W 95-63 97%     5 - 3 +23.6 +2.2 +17.1
  Dec 03, 2022 23   West Virginia W 84-74 62%     6 - 3 +20.8 +14.2 +6.4
  Dec 10, 2022 59   @ Cincinnati W 80-77 59%     7 - 3 +14.6 +7.0 +7.3
  Dec 13, 2022 236   Southern W 79-59 96%     8 - 3 +13.4 -3.1 +14.4
  Dec 16, 2022 188   @ Georgetown W 102-89 87%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.6 +18.4 -5.0
  Dec 20, 2022 47   Seton Hall W 73-70 73%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +10.6 +4.9 +5.5
  Dec 28, 2022 68   @ St. John's W 84-79 62%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +15.8 +7.3 +7.9
  Dec 31, 2022 6   Connecticut W 83-73 48%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +24.4 +12.9 +11.0
  Jan 07, 2023 66   @ Villanova W 88-80 61%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +19.0 +13.8 +4.8
  Jan 11, 2023 11   Creighton W 90-87 54%     14 - 3 6 - 0 +15.9 +16.1 -0.4
  Jan 15, 2023 8   Marquette W 80-76 53%     15 - 3 7 - 0 +17.3 +11.2 +6.1
  Jan 18, 2023 123   @ DePaul L 72-73 80%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +4.3 -2.5 +6.8
  Jan 21, 2023 188   Georgetown W 95-82 94%     16 - 4 8 - 1 +9.3 +12.4 -4.0
  Jan 25, 2023 6   @ Connecticut W 82-79 29%     17 - 4 9 - 1 +22.8 +18.8 +4.0
  Jan 28, 2023 11   @ Creighton L 67-84 34%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +1.3 +5.1 -4.3
  Feb 01, 2023 27   Providence W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 68   St. John's W 89-80 80%    
  Feb 10, 2023 87   @ Butler W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 15, 2023 8   @ Marquette L 82-87 31%    
  Feb 18, 2023 123   DePaul W 88-74 91%    
  Feb 21, 2023 66   Villanova W 78-70 79%    
  Feb 24, 2023 47   @ Seton Hall W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 01, 2023 27   @ Providence L 78-80 43%    
  Mar 04, 2023 87   Butler W 80-69 85%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 6.6 16.1 11.0 2.4 36.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 5.4 14.8 6.4 0.4 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.9 11.1 5.9 0.2 21.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.0 3.6 0.3 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 10.8 20.6 27.6 22.7 11.3 2.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.4    2.4
17-3 96.7% 11.0    8.9 2.0 0.0
16-4 70.9% 16.1    6.5 7.8 1.7 0.1
15-5 24.0% 6.6    1.0 2.9 2.3 0.5
14-6 2.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.7% 36.7 18.9 12.8 4.3 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.4% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 1.7 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.3% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.6 0.9 4.1 4.7 1.5 0.1 100.0%
16-4 22.7% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 3.5 0.2 2.4 8.4 8.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 27.6% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 4.4 0.0 0.4 4.1 10.6 9.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 20.6% 99.9% 11.7% 88.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 7.6 6.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.8% 99.6% 10.2% 89.3% 6.4 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.2 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 99.5%
12-8 3.5% 98.8% 7.5% 91.3% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.7%
11-9 0.8% 94.7% 4.6% 90.1% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 94.5%
10-10 0.1% 78.0% 78.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 13.0% 86.8% 4.5 2.2 8.0 18.2 24.2 21.6 13.0 8.3 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 1.7 41.5 48.0 9.8 0.7