Seton Hall
Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#28
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#11
Pace71.4#122
Improvement-3.1#345

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#36
First Shot+3.5#77
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#66
Layup/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#133
Freethrows+3.1#24
Improvement-0.6#250

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#23
First Shot+4.0#62
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#21
Layups/Dunks+3.0#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#10
Freethrows-0.1#190
Improvement-2.4#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
#1 Seed 3.9% 4.1% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 10.5% 10.9% 4.5%
Top 4 Seed 27.4% 28.3% 15.7%
Top 6 Seed 48.0% 49.4% 29.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.1% 85.9% 73.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.2% 83.1% 70.7%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 7.0
.500 or above 95.5% 96.1% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 87.1% 79.5%
Conference Champion 17.7% 18.0% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.8%
First Four3.7% 3.6% 5.1%
First Round83.4% 84.4% 70.6%
Second Round55.3% 56.4% 41.3%
Sweet Sixteen25.6% 26.3% 15.9%
Elite Eight11.8% 12.4% 4.3%
Final Four4.8% 5.1% 1.3%
Championship Game2.0% 2.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 36 - 119 - 10
Quad 43 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-49 98%     1 - 0 +31.2 +2.1 +25.1
  Nov 14, 2021 121   Yale W 80-44 89%     2 - 0 +35.9 +0.7 +32.5
  Nov 16, 2021 15   @ Michigan W 67-65 31%     3 - 0 +20.0 +4.8 +15.3
  Nov 22, 2021 25   Ohio St. L 76-79 48%     3 - 1 +10.4 +9.8 +0.4
  Nov 24, 2021 122   California W 62-59 83%     4 - 1 +5.9 -3.2 +9.2
  Nov 28, 2021 345   Bethune-Cookman W 84-70 99%     5 - 1 -2.4 +1.8 -4.4
  Dec 01, 2021 156   Wagner W 76-61 93%    
  Dec 09, 2021 11   Texas W 66-65 50%    
  Dec 12, 2021 87   Rutgers W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 18, 2021 106   Iona W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 20, 2021 61   St. John's W 81-73 79%    
  Dec 23, 2021 86   @ DePaul W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 29, 2021 54   @ Providence W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 01, 2022 6   Villanova L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 04, 2022 103   @ Butler W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 08, 2022 26   Connecticut W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 15, 2022 62   @ Marquette W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 18, 2022 54   Providence W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 22, 2022 61   @ St. John's W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 26, 2022 62   Marquette W 80-72 77%    
  Feb 01, 2022 128   @ Georgetown W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 04, 2022 66   Creighton W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 09, 2022 37   Xavier W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 16, 2022 26   @ Connecticut L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 19, 2022 86   DePaul W 80-70 80%    
  Feb 23, 2022 103   Butler W 71-59 85%    
  Feb 26, 2022 37   @ Xavier L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 02, 2022 128   Georgetown W 80-67 88%    
  Mar 05, 2022 66   @ Creighton W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.6 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.2 17.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.6 6.1 6.8 3.9 1.1 0.2 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.7 6.6 4.2 1.3 0.2 18.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.7 5.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.8 1.6 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.3 3.4 5.7 8.2 10.8 12.7 13.2 11.9 11.4 8.7 5.7 2.7 1.2 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
18-2 94.5% 2.6    2.3 0.3
17-3 81.3% 4.6    3.5 1.1 0.1
16-4 53.0% 4.6    2.6 1.7 0.3
15-5 28.2% 3.2    1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 9.5% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 11.4 5.1 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 56.6% 43.4% 1.6 0.1 0.1 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.8 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-3 5.7% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 2.4 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.7% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 3.3 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 11.4% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 4.4 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.4 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.9% 99.6% 21.5% 78.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.0 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 13.2% 99.2% 13.1% 86.1% 6.6 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.5 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.1%
12-8 12.7% 96.4% 9.0% 87.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 96.0%
11-9 10.8% 88.7% 8.5% 80.2% 8.8 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.1 1.2 87.7%
10-10 8.2% 69.5% 4.2% 65.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.5 68.2%
9-11 5.7% 38.5% 3.7% 34.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.5 36.1%
8-12 3.4% 14.0% 1.8% 12.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.9 12.5%
7-13 2.3% 5.5% 3.7% 1.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.9%
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 85.1% 16.2% 68.9% 6.1 3.9 6.6 7.6 9.4 9.3 11.3 9.8 8.9 7.2 5.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.9 82.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 52.4 47.6