Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#38
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#38
Pace60.8#359
Improvement+0.1#175

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#36
First Shot+6.0#39
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#86
Layup/Dunks+1.4#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#9
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement+0.3#149

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#51
First Shot+3.7#67
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#98
Layups/Dunks+0.2#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows+3.3#25
Improvement-0.2#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 5.3% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 13.5% 18.7% 7.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.0% 71.3% 51.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.0% 68.5% 48.6%
Average Seed 8.2 7.9 8.6
.500 or above 95.5% 98.2% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.2% 83.9% 76.1%
Conference Champion 5.2% 6.4% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four9.3% 8.7% 9.9%
First Round57.3% 66.9% 46.6%
Second Round31.4% 38.3% 23.6%
Sweet Sixteen9.4% 12.2% 6.2%
Elite Eight3.3% 4.4% 2.1%
Final Four1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Neutral) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 39 - 11
Quad 37 - 116 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 9 BYU L 66-71 24%     0 - 1 +14.9 +3.7 +11.1
  Sat, Nov 8 211 Queens W 94-74 95%     1 - 1 +13.7 +15.2 -1.0
  Tue, Nov 11 270 Sacred Heart W 94-60 97%     2 - 1 +25.1 +21.0 +6.4
  Sat, Nov 15 141 Duquesne W 87-77 90%     3 - 1 +8.2 +13.2 -4.9
  Wed, Nov 19 236 @La Salle W 70-55 90%     4 - 1 +13.7 +10.8 +5.6
  Tue, Nov 25 209 Old Dominion W 89-75 95%     5 - 1 +7.9 +17.7 -9.0
  Mon, Dec 1 148 Temple W 74-56 91%     6 - 1 +15.9 +11.9 +7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 251 Penn W 90-63 94%     7 - 1 +21.7 +19.0 +4.4
  Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61-89 6%     7 - 2 +1.8 -2.3 +6.9
  Sat, Dec 13 102 Pittsburgh W 79-61 84%     8 - 2 +19.6 +21.4 +1.9
  Fri, Dec 19 43 Wisconsin W 74-73 53%    
  Tue, Dec 23 57 @Seton Hall L 65-66 49%    
  Wed, Dec 31 111 DePaul W 74-62 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 58 @Butler L 73-74 49%    
  Wed, Jan 7 39 Creighton W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 98 @Marquette W 73-69 66%    
  Tue, Jan 13 73 @Providence W 78-76 56%    
  Sat, Jan 17 18 St. John's L 72-74 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 90 Georgetown W 76-67 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 6 @Connecticut L 61-73 14%    
  Fri, Jan 30 73 Providence W 81-73 76%    
  Wed, Feb 4 57 Seton Hall W 69-63 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 90 @Georgetown W 73-70 62%    
  Tue, Feb 10 98 Marquette W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Feb 14 39 @Creighton L 68-71 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 101 @Xavier W 73-68 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 6 Connecticut L 64-70 30%    
  Wed, Feb 25 58 Butler W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 18 @St. John's L 69-77 25%    
  Wed, Mar 4 111 @DePaul W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 101 Xavier W 76-65 83%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.1 4.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.8 7.7 6.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 23.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 6.0 7.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 19.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.2 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.4 0.9 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.6 8.1 11.3 13.3 14.4 13.6 11.1 8.2 4.8 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 93.8% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 63.0% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1
16-4 30.4% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 11.4% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 99.9% 21.9% 78.0% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 4.8% 99.7% 17.4% 82.2% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6%
15-5 8.2% 98.5% 14.5% 84.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.3%
14-6 11.1% 95.1% 11.6% 83.5% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.4 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.5%
13-7 13.6% 87.4% 9.1% 78.3% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.1 2.7 0.8 0.0 1.7 86.1%
12-8 14.4% 74.5% 6.4% 68.1% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.5 2.0 0.0 3.7 72.8%
11-9 13.3% 55.4% 4.3% 51.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 2.7 0.0 5.9 53.5%
10-10 11.3% 35.0% 2.9% 32.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 0.1 7.4 33.0%
9-11 8.1% 12.0% 2.2% 9.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 7.1 10.1%
8-12 5.6% 2.5% 1.1% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5 1.4%
7-13 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 62.0% 7.5% 54.5% 8.2 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.1 5.8 8.1 9.6 10.8 11.3 8.4 0.3 0.0 38.0 59.0%