Villanova
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#25
Pace61.7#338
Improvement+1.0#91

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#4
First Shot+11.5#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#174
Layup/Dunks-3.3#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+13.1#1
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement-0.8#260

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#41
First Shot+3.7#67
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#54
Layups/Dunks+3.0#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
Freethrows+1.0#128
Improvement+1.8#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.1% 6.4% 2.5%
#1 Seed 21.4% 22.3% 9.7%
Top 2 Seed 42.0% 43.3% 24.2%
Top 4 Seed 69.9% 71.3% 49.8%
Top 6 Seed 85.6% 86.8% 70.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.7% 94.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.1% 97.7% 90.6%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 4.7
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.0% 97.2%
Conference Champion 61.2% 61.9% 50.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.9%
First Round98.1% 98.5% 93.3%
Second Round84.1% 85.0% 71.4%
Sweet Sixteen57.3% 58.4% 42.5%
Elite Eight33.7% 34.6% 22.1%
Final Four18.1% 18.5% 12.1%
Championship Game9.8% 10.0% 7.0%
National Champion5.4% 5.5% 4.1%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 6
Quad 28 - 115 - 7
Quad 36 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 299   Mount St. Mary's W 91-51 99%     1 - 0 +29.6 +27.4 +7.5
  Nov 12, 2021 8   @ UCLA L 77-86 OT 39%     1 - 1 +11.5 +9.7 +2.2
  Nov 16, 2021 310   Howard W 100-81 99%     2 - 1 +7.8 +23.8 -15.1
  Nov 20, 2021 18   Tennessee W 71-53 62%     3 - 1 +32.5 +7.7 +25.2
  Nov 21, 2021 2   Purdue L 74-80 39%     3 - 2 +14.6 +19.2 -5.6
  Nov 28, 2021 244   @ La Salle W 72-46 95%     4 - 2 +24.7 +4.4 +21.7
  Dec 01, 2021 189   @ Penn W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 04, 2021 220   Saint Joseph's W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 07, 2021 71   Syracuse W 80-69 84%    
  Dec 12, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 68-72 35%    
  Dec 17, 2021 66   @ Creighton W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 21, 2021 37   Xavier W 74-64 81%    
  Dec 29, 2021 150   Temple W 78-59 96%    
  Jan 01, 2022 28   @ Seton Hall W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 05, 2022 66   Creighton W 76-63 89%    
  Jan 08, 2022 86   @ DePaul W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 12, 2022 37   @ Xavier W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 16, 2022 103   Butler W 71-55 93%    
  Jan 19, 2022 62   Marquette W 80-67 87%    
  Jan 22, 2022 128   @ Georgetown W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 25, 2022 86   DePaul W 80-66 90%    
  Jan 29, 2022 61   St. John's W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 02, 2022 62   @ Marquette W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 26   Connecticut W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 08, 2022 61   @ St. John's W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 28   Seton Hall W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 15, 2022 54   @ Providence W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 128   Georgetown W 81-63 94%    
  Feb 22, 2022 26   @ Connecticut W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 01, 2022 54   Providence W 74-62 88%    
  Mar 05, 2022 103   @ Butler W 68-58 82%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.1 11.8 16.0 12.8 8.8 3.0 61.2 1st
2nd 0.5 2.7 5.3 6.6 4.1 1.3 0.2 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 3.0 1.0 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.3 4.8 7.8 10.9 13.6 15.8 17.3 13.1 8.8 3.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
19-1 100.0% 8.8    8.8 0.0
18-2 98.2% 12.8    12.2 0.6
17-3 92.8% 16.0    13.6 2.4 0.1
16-4 74.2% 11.8    8.1 3.2 0.4
15-5 44.6% 6.1    3.2 2.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 21.3% 2.3    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 61.2% 61.2 49.5 9.8 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.0% 100.0% 71.5% 28.5% 1.2 2.5 0.5 100.0%
19-1 8.8% 100.0% 58.9% 41.1% 1.3 6.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 13.1% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.6 6.5 5.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 17.3% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 2.2 4.4 7.1 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.8% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 3.0 1.7 4.0 5.3 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.6% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 4.0 0.3 1.2 4.0 3.8 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.9% 99.6% 30.8% 68.8% 5.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 2.8 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 7.8% 99.2% 27.7% 71.5% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.9%
12-8 4.8% 95.5% 21.2% 74.2% 7.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 94.2%
11-9 2.3% 92.3% 13.5% 78.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 91.1%
10-10 1.5% 73.6% 7.1% 66.6% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 71.6%
9-11 0.8% 35.6% 8.7% 27.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 29.5%
8-12 0.2% 36.3% 24.2% 12.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.9%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 42.0% 56.4% 3.5 21.4 20.6 16.3 11.6 8.9 6.9 4.8 3.3 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 97.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.2 82.4 17.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0