Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.5 #31
Expected Predictive Rating +16.2 #29
Pace 60.9 #353
Improvement +0.9 #139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #37 B+ B- B- C- C+
Defense #38 B- B B A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #293 1.34 #24 +0.8 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #292 0.81 #97 -1.6 #266
Three Pointers 50% #22 1.13 #38 +7.6 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #27 +6.7 #27
Freethrows 0.30 #220 74% #133 0.22 #211
Second Chance 36.3% #40 1.01 #189 0.37 #72
Turnovers 15.0% #65
Total Offense +8.1 #37

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #244 1.09 #87 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #39 0.73 #133 -1.8 #316
Three Pointers 37% #283 0.99 #138 +2.4 #87
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #78 +3.1 #80
Freethrows 0.23 #14 66% #5 0.15 #8
Second Chance 29.2% #119 0.89 #30 0.26 #58
Turnovers 20.0% #36
Total Defense +6.4 #38

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #138 -1.7% #49
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.3% #27 -4.4% #95
Possession Length 18.0 #255 18.7 #345
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #122 0.10 #18
Improvement +0.0 #188 +1.0 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.8% 3.9% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 16.4% 21.4% 7.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.9% 93.5% 86.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.8% 92.6% 84.6%
Average Seed 8.1 7.8 8.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.1% 3.4% 8.4%
First Round88.4% 91.9% 81.8%
Second Round48.5% 52.8% 40.3%
Sweet Sixteen13.0% 14.9% 9.5%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.9% 4.1%
Final Four1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 6
Quad 27 - 211 - 8
Quad 39 - 120 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 17 BYU L 66 - 71 38% -6  0 - 1 +13 +2 F A+ B- +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 211 Queens W 94 - 74 96% +12  1 - 1 +14 +16 C A+ B+ -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 273 Sacred Heart W 94 - 60 98% +21  2 - 1 +25 +20 A+ B F +7 C D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 106 Duquesne W 87 - 77 89% +6  3 - 1 +11 +15 D+ A+ C- -4 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 225 @La Salle W 70 - 55 91% +11  4 - 1 +14 +11 A+ D+ F +7 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 260 Old Dominion W 89 - 75 97% +6  5 - 1 +5 +17 A+ B+ A- -11 D F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 143 Temple W 74 - 56 93% +5  6 - 1 +16 +14 B- C+ C+ +5 B+ B+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 181 Penn W 90 - 63 92% +15  7 - 1 +26 +22 A+ C C+ +6 B C B+
 Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61 - 89 11% -23  7 - 2 -0 -3 C D C +6 A+ C C
 Sat, Dec 13 93 Pittsburgh W 79 - 61 86% +6  8 - 2 +21 +23 A+ B- A+ +1 A+ F+ A-
 Fri, Dec 19 37 Wisconsin W 76 - 66 OT 54% +7  9 - 2 +24 +9 C A A +14 A- C- A+
 Tue, Dec 23 55 @Seton Hall W 64 - 56 56% +8  10 - 2 1 - 0 +21 +9 A+ B+ F +13 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 94 DePaul W 71 - 66 86% -2  11 - 2 2 - 0 +8 +5 C D+ A+ +3 B- C B+
 Sat, Jan 3 72 @Butler W 85 - 67 63% +3  12 - 2 3 - 0 +29 +15 A+ C- B- +14 A+ F A
 Wed, Jan 7 61 Creighton L 72 - 76 79% +2  12 - 3 3 - 1 +2 +8 C C A+ -7 C- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 95 @Marquette W 76 - 73 72% +3  13 - 3 4 - 1 +12 +16 A+ C+ A -4 D B+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 64 @Providence W 88 - 82 61% +7  14 - 3 5 - 1 +18 +17 A+ C C+ +0 D+ C A-
 Sat, Jan 17 18 St. John's L 79 - 86 50% -5  14 - 4 5 - 2 +8 +12 A+ A- B- -4 C- B+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 77 Georgetown W 66 - 51 82% +8  15 - 4 6 - 2 +20 +3 C- C+ B +18 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 8 @Connecticut L 67 - 75 OT 17% +2  15 - 5 6 - 3 +16 +13 D+ A+ B+ +3 A+ D D
 Fri, Jan 30 64 Providence W 87 - 73 80% +10  16 - 5 7 - 3 +20 +14 A+ F A+ +6 C+ A A+
 Wed, Feb 4 55 Seton Hall W 72 - 60 77% +10  17 - 5 8 - 3 +19 +15 A+ D- C+ +6 B A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 77 @Georgetown W 72 - 68 66%
 Tue, Feb 10 95 Marquette W 78 - 66 88%
 Sat, Feb 14 61 @Creighton W 73 - 70 60%
 Tue, Feb 17 85 @Xavier W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 8 Connecticut L 65 - 69 36%
 Wed, Feb 25 72 Butler W 78 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 18 @St. John's L 70 - 76 28%
 Wed, Mar 4 94 @DePaul W 71 - 65 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 Xavier W 79 - 68 86%
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 6 +15 +8 B+ B- B- +6 B- B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.7 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.5 7.0 1.3 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.6 10.6 22.1 24.6 14.9 2.7 79.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.6 11.2 22.5 26.8 21.4 10.0 2.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 34.7% 0.7    0.1 0.5 0.1
16-4 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 10.0% 99.9% 17.5% 82.4% 6.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 99.9%
15-5 21.4% 98.2% 14.2% 84.0% 7.3 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.9 5.4 5.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.4 97.9%
14-6 26.8% 94.1% 9.6% 84.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 4.5 7.5 7.2 3.2 0.5 1.6 93.5%
13-7 22.5% 90.1% 9.4% 80.8% 9.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.4 7.3 5.1 1.7 2.2 89.1%
12-8 11.2% 78.8% 8.2% 70.6% 9.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 3.2 1.9 2.4 76.9%
11-9 4.6% 65.0% 5.0% 60.0% 10.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.1 1.6 63.2%
10-10 1.4% 47.1% 7.4% 39.7% 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 42.9%
9-11 0.2% 26.1% 13.0% 13.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.0%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.9% 11.2% 79.7% 8.1 9.1 89.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 3.1 10.6 12.8 44.7 23.4 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 4.1 17.7 54.8 22.6 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 5.3 18.6 35.6 40.7 5.1