Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.8 #28
Expected Predictive Rating +20.5 #13
Pace 60.7 #357
Improvement +2.5 #60

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #39 A- D+ B B- C+
Defense #25 B A+ B A- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.32 #44 +0.4 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #299 0.68 #270 -2.7 #306
Three Pointers 51% #23 1.16 #26 +8.9 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #31 +6.6 #32
Freethrows 16.5 #232 75% #119 12.3 #252
Second Chance 37.5% #26 1.02 #207 0.38 #64
Turnovers 15.4% #107
Total Offense +7.5 #39

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #187 1.03 #46 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #64 0.69 #102 -0.9 #244
Three Pointers 37% #297 1.01 #191 +2.2 #102
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #65 +3.9 #65
Freethrows 12.4 #16 65% #7 8.0 #7
Second Chance 29.6% #137 0.93 #58 0.28 #79
Turnovers 19.9% #36
Total Defense +7.3 #25

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #133 -1.1% #82
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.9% #31 -6.6% #71
Possession Length 18.2 #268 18.8 #353
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.11 #22
Improvement -0.2 #199 +2.7 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 16.7% 20.7% 8.4%
Top 6 Seed 48.5% 55.0% 34.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 96.1% 89.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.9% 95.5% 87.9%
Average Seed 6.5 6.2 7.2
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.9% 94.9%
Conference Champion 15.7% 19.8% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.7% 1.8% 4.6%
First Round92.6% 95.2% 87.1%
Second Round61.3% 65.4% 52.7%
Sweet Sixteen23.0% 25.8% 17.1%
Elite Eight8.0% 9.0% 5.8%
Final Four2.7% 3.1% 1.9%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Creighton (Home) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 15 - 6
Quad 27 - 212 - 8
Quad 38 - 020 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 10 BYU L 66-71 31%     -5.5   0 - 1 +14.8 +3.9 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 8 225 Queens W 94-74 97%     12.2   1 - 1 +13.4 +14.4 -0.5
  Tue, Nov 11 287 Sacred Heart W 94-60 98%     21.3   2 - 1 +23.9 +20.7 +5.5
  Sat, Nov 15 122 Duquesne W 87-77 91%     6.4   3 - 1 +9.6 +13.5 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 19 234 @La Salle W 70-55 92%     11.3   4 - 1 +13.9 +10.0 +6.5
  Tue, Nov 25 252 Old Dominion W 89-75 97%     6.3   5 - 1 +5.6 +16.8 -10.5
  Mon, Dec 1 143 Temple W 74-56 93%     5.0   6 - 1 +16.0 +12.9 +6.9
  Sat, Dec 6 217 Penn W 90-63 94%     14.6   7 - 1 +23.7 +19.7 +5.7
  Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61-89 7%     -22.9   7 - 2 +2.9 -1.2 +6.9
  Sat, Dec 13 86 Pittsburgh W 79-61 85%     6.1   8 - 2 +21.8 +23.5 +2.0
  Fri, Dec 19 49 Wisconsin W 76-66 OT 63%     6.8   9 - 2 +21.3 +9.9 +11.5
  Tue, Dec 23 53 @Seton Hall W 64-56 56%     8.0   10 - 2 1 - 0 +21.1 +8.5 +13.4
  Wed, Dec 31 104 DePaul W 71-66 88%     -2.5   11 - 2 2 - 0 +6.8 +4.4 +2.7
  Sat, Jan 3 54 @Butler W 85-67 57%     2.5   12 - 2 3 - 0 +30.8 +16.3 +14.3
  Wed, Jan 7 39 Creighton W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Jan 10 106 @Marquette W 74-67 75%    
  Tue, Jan 13 69 @Providence W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 23 St. John's W 72-70 57%    
  Wed, Jan 21 102 Georgetown W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 5 @Connecticut L 61-71 17%    
  Fri, Jan 30 69 Providence W 80-71 81%    
  Wed, Feb 4 53 Seton Hall W 68-60 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 102 @Georgetown W 75-68 73%    
  Tue, Feb 10 106 Marquette W 77-64 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 39 @Creighton L 68-69 46%    
  Tue, Feb 17 101 @Xavier W 75-68 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 5 Connecticut L 64-68 36%    
  Wed, Feb 25 54 Butler W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 23 @St. John's L 69-73 36%    
  Wed, Mar 4 104 @DePaul W 71-64 73%    
  Sat, Mar 7 101 Xavier W 78-65 88%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 5.2 3.7 1.3 0.2 15.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 9.2 13.0 9.7 3.9 0.6 40.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.8 7.4 2.9 0.3 22.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.6 10.1 14.4 17.5 17.3 13.6 9.0 4.3 1.3 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.1
18-2 85.4% 3.7    2.9 0.9
17-3 57.1% 5.2    2.9 2.2 0.1
16-4 26.8% 3.7    1.4 1.9 0.4
15-5 8.4% 1.5    0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
14-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 8.9 5.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 2.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.3% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 3.5 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 9.0% 99.9% 22.7% 77.2% 4.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 13.6% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.4 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 17.3% 99.3% 15.4% 83.9% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 5.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.2%
14-6 17.5% 98.2% 12.2% 86.0% 6.8 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 98.0%
13-7 14.4% 96.0% 9.7% 86.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 3.9 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.6 95.6%
12-8 10.1% 90.5% 6.4% 84.1% 8.5 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.6 1.9 0.4 1.0 89.9%
11-9 6.6% 80.2% 4.5% 75.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.0 1.3 79.3%
10-10 3.2% 68.0% 3.6% 64.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.0 66.8%
9-11 1.5% 34.1% 2.0% 32.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.0 32.7%
8-12 0.6% 12.6% 2.6% 10.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 10.3%
7-13 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 2.4%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.9% 13.6% 80.3% 6.5 0.4 1.5 4.8 10.0 14.6 17.2 15.9 12.0 9.3 5.9 2.3 0.0 6.1 92.9%