Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#39
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.1#354
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.5% 3.2% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 4.3% 8.3% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 23.0% 9.5%
Top 6 Seed 26.3% 41.4% 19.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.3% 74.5% 49.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.2% 71.9% 46.8%
Average Seed 6.7 6.1 7.1
.500 or above 76.9% 89.7% 71.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 75.6% 59.9%
Conference Champion 6.4% 9.5% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.9% 4.8%
First Four6.2% 5.4% 6.6%
First Round54.1% 71.5% 46.4%
Second Round35.9% 51.1% 29.2%
Sweet Sixteen15.1% 23.4% 11.4%
Elite Eight6.2% 10.3% 4.4%
Final Four2.5% 4.1% 1.7%
Championship Game0.9% 1.6% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: BYU (Neutral) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 310 - 12
Quad 35 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 9   BYU L 67-72 31%    
  Nov 08, 2025 245   Queens W 80-59 97%    
  Nov 11, 2025 254   Sacred Heart W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 15, 2025 115   Duquesne W 70-57 87%    
  Nov 19, 2025 196   @ La Salle W 74-62 86%    
  Nov 25, 2025 200   Old Dominion W 75-57 94%    
  Dec 01, 2025 132   Temple W 76-62 89%    
  Dec 09, 2025 6   @ Michigan L 64-74 20%    
  Dec 13, 2025 77   Pittsburgh W 71-62 77%    
  Dec 19, 2025 26   Wisconsin L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 23, 2025 101   @ Seton Hall W 65-60 66%    
  Dec 31, 2025 84   DePaul W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 03, 2026 66   @ Butler W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 07, 2026 24   Creighton W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 10, 2026 43   @ Marquette L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 13, 2026 59   @ Providence W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 17, 2026 8   St. John's L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 21, 2026 69   Georgetown W 71-63 74%    
  Jan 24, 2026 4   @ Connecticut L 58-70 16%    
  Jan 30, 2026 59   Providence W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 04, 2026 101   Seton Hall W 68-57 81%    
  Feb 07, 2026 69   @ Georgetown W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 10, 2026 43   Marquette W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 14, 2026 24   @ Creighton L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 17, 2026 50   @ Xavier L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 21, 2026 4   Connecticut L 61-67 32%    
  Feb 25, 2026 66   Butler W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 28, 2026 8   @ St. John's L 64-73 24%    
  Mar 04, 2026 84   @ DePaul W 68-65 61%    
  Mar 07, 2026 50   Xavier W 71-66 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 3.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.4 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 4.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.6 6.5 7.8 9.7 10.4 11.0 10.3 9.5 8.5 6.3 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 88.0% 1.0    0.8 0.2
17-3 67.3% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1
16-4 38.4% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2
15-5 15.3% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 65.6% 34.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 99.8% 20.8% 79.0% 3.6 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 6.3% 99.7% 16.2% 83.5% 4.7 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 8.5% 98.7% 13.5% 85.2% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
13-7 9.5% 96.5% 8.6% 87.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 96.2%
12-8 10.3% 87.1% 5.7% 81.4% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.3 86.3%
11-9 11.0% 71.5% 3.2% 68.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.1 70.6%
10-10 10.4% 50.1% 2.0% 48.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 49.1%
9-11 9.7% 22.0% 1.2% 20.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 7.5 21.1%
8-12 7.8% 6.3% 0.8% 5.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.3 5.5%
7-13 6.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.7%
6-14 4.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.1%
5-15 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.1
4-16 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 32.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 57.3% 6.7% 50.6% 6.7 1.5 2.8 4.2 5.1 6.0 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.4 6.7 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.7 54.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0