Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#93
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#89
Pace61.1#356
Improvement-1.7#298

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#212
First Shot+2.9#93
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#356
Layup/Dunks+3.6#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement-2.5#342

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#24
First Shot+5.0#43
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#36
Layups/Dunks-0.5#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#77
Freethrows+3.3#27
Improvement+0.8#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 23.9% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.5 12.0
.500 or above 97.6% 99.6% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 95.2% 90.9%
Conference Champion 25.0% 31.7% 23.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round18.5% 23.5% 17.3%
Second Round3.6% 5.3% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 39 - 412 - 10
Quad 410 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 218 Cal St. Northridge W 86-57 87%     1 - 0 +22.5 +7.0 +14.8
  Sun, Nov 9 164 South Dakota St. W 65-58 81%     2 - 0 +3.6 -2.5 +6.8
  Fri, Nov 14 152 Furman W 70-54 78%     3 - 0 +13.6 +1.9 +13.1
  Tue, Nov 18 322 Northern Illinois W 70-57 95%     4 - 0 +0.4 -0.8 +2.9
  Sat, Nov 22 120 @UC Irvine W 70-69 OT 49%     5 - 0 +6.9 +4.2 +2.7
  Tue, Nov 25 290 Loyola Chicago W 72-51 88%     6 - 0 +14.0 +3.4 +13.5
  Wed, Nov 26 81 Tulsa L 60-63 44%     6 - 1 +4.1 -5.8 +9.5
  Sat, Dec 6 100 Wichita St. L 69-74 OT 64%     6 - 2 -3.1 -3.7 +0.6
  Sat, Dec 13 144 Oakland W 75-63 77%     7 - 2 +10.0 -5.7 +15.2
  Wed, Dec 17 192 @Illinois-Chicago W 60-54 68%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +6.9 -3.9 +11.7
  Mon, Dec 22 42 @St. Mary's L 57-66 20%    
  Mon, Dec 29 213 Valparaiso W 68-56 87%    
  Thu, Jan 1 194 Indiana St. W 72-61 85%    
  Sun, Jan 4 268 @Evansville W 67-59 78%    
  Wed, Jan 7 87 Belmont W 70-67 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 107 @Bradley L 63-64 45%    
  Tue, Jan 13 192 Illinois-Chicago W 71-60 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 213 @Valparaiso W 65-59 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 88 @Illinois St. L 63-66 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 96 Murray St. W 72-69 62%    
  Wed, Jan 28 135 @Southern Illinois W 66-65 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 268 Evansville W 70-56 90%    
  Fri, Feb 6 107 Bradley W 66-61 67%    
  Mon, Feb 9 96 @Murray St. L 69-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 87 @Belmont L 67-70 37%    
  Sun, Feb 15 136 Drake W 67-60 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 194 @Indiana St. W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Feb 21 135 Southern Illinois W 69-62 74%    
  Wed, Feb 25 88 Illinois St. W 66-63 59%    
  Sun, Mar 1 136 @Drake W 64-63 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.3 7.0 6.0 3.0 1.1 0.2 25.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.0 6.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.8 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.8 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.5 0.3 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.6 9.7 12.7 14.2 14.8 13.1 9.8 6.5 3.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 98.4% 3.0    2.8 0.1
17-3 91.6% 6.0    5.0 1.0 0.0
16-4 71.6% 7.0    4.6 2.2 0.3
15-5 40.8% 5.3    2.3 2.2 0.8 0.1
14-6 14.3% 2.1    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 16.4 6.4 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 67.9% 49.1% 18.9% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 37.0%
19-1 1.1% 55.4% 47.5% 7.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 15.1%
18-2 3.0% 44.4% 40.6% 3.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.7 6.5%
17-3 6.5% 35.5% 34.7% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.0 4.2 1.3%
16-4 9.8% 30.0% 29.7% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 0.4%
15-5 13.1% 23.8% 23.7% 0.1% 11.9 0.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.0 0.1%
14-6 14.8% 20.4% 20.4% 12.1 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 11.8
13-7 14.2% 15.7% 15.7% 12.2 0.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 12.0
12-8 12.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.1
11-9 9.7% 8.5% 8.5% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.9
10-10 6.6% 5.3% 5.3% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.3
9-11 4.1% 3.1% 3.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
7-13 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.7% 18.3% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.8 10.2 2.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 81.3 0.4%