Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#165
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#184
Pace68.2#181
Improvement+0.6#110

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#200
First Shot+1.7#110
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#336
Layup/Dunks+1.7#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement+0.6#78

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot+1.5#126
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#236
Layups/Dunks+2.9#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#311
Freethrows+2.7#23
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 49.7% 76.8% 43.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 99.0% 91.1%
Conference Champion 7.9% 20.8% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round3.9% 5.2% 3.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 116   @ Richmond L 55-68 31%     0 - 1 -7.5 -10.1 +1.7
  Nov 21, 2022 88   San Francisco L 69-75 30%     0 - 2 -0.3 -3.7 +3.5
  Nov 22, 2022 118   Grand Canyon L 67-69 40%     0 - 3 +0.8 +2.1 -1.5
  Nov 26, 2022 282   Northern Illinois W 83-76 81%     1 - 3 -2.1 +0.3 -2.9
  Nov 30, 2022 92   @ Bradley L 53-68 23%     1 - 4 -6.9 -8.2 -0.5
  Dec 03, 2022 341   Evansville W 72-55 90%     2 - 4 1 - 0 +3.0 -0.7 +4.8
  Dec 06, 2022 103   Toledo L 75-83 44%     2 - 5 -6.2 -2.4 -3.9
  Dec 09, 2022 339   McNeese St. L 49-52 90%     2 - 6 -16.7 -28.5 +11.5
  Dec 12, 2022 131   South Florida L 69-72 53%     2 - 7 -3.5 -4.2 +0.8
  Dec 17, 2022 141   Towson W 83-66 44%     3 - 7 +18.7 +10.3 +8.3
  Dec 21, 2022 151   St. Bonaventure W 62-52 58%     4 - 7 +8.2 -3.7 +12.9
  Dec 28, 2022 138   Missouri St. L 67-79 54%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -12.9 -1.9 -11.6
  Dec 31, 2022 235   @ Illinois St. W 66-60 55%     5 - 8 2 - 1 +4.8 -11.1 +15.6
  Jan 04, 2023 268   @ Valparaiso W 69-67 62%     6 - 8 3 - 1 -0.9 -3.0 +2.1
  Jan 07, 2023 130   Southern Illinois W 69-57 52%     7 - 8 4 - 1 +11.6 +5.8 +7.0
  Jan 10, 2023 161   Murray St. W 75-67 60%     8 - 8 5 - 1 +5.7 +0.1 +5.6
  Jan 14, 2023 127   @ Belmont L 72-76 32%     8 - 9 5 - 2 +1.0 +5.2 -4.4
  Jan 18, 2023 235   Illinois St. W 65-63 74%     9 - 9 6 - 2 -4.5 -6.7 +2.3
  Jan 21, 2023 264   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-72 62%     10 - 9 7 - 2 +3.2 +9.5 -6.0
  Jan 25, 2023 268   Valparaiso W 77-66 79%     11 - 9 8 - 2 +2.8 +1.9 +1.0
  Jan 28, 2023 124   @ Indiana St. L 71-79 32%     11 - 10 8 - 3 -2.8 -1.5 -1.1
  Feb 01, 2023 84   @ Drake L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 04, 2023 92   Bradley L 66-68 41%    
  Feb 08, 2023 341   @ Evansville W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 11, 2023 124   Indiana St. W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 15, 2023 84   Drake L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 18, 2023 138   @ Missouri St. L 62-66 34%    
  Feb 22, 2023 130   @ Southern Illinois L 61-66 32%    
  Feb 26, 2023 127   Belmont W 72-71 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 4.3 1.5 0.3 7.9 1st
2nd 0.8 7.2 2.2 0.1 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.0 6.0 0.2 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 11.7 1.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.5 9.1 5.8 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.9 10.6 0.8 15.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 8.7 3.5 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.6 4.3 3.9 0.2 9.1 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.9 6.5 17.0 26.0 25.1 16.0 6.7 1.6 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-5 95.0% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 64.5% 4.3    1.2 2.1 1.0 0.1
13-7 11.2% 1.8    0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 0.3
15-5 1.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-6 6.7% 7.6% 7.6% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 6.2
13-7 16.0% 6.2% 6.2% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 15.0
12-8 25.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.2 24.0
11-9 26.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.2 0.7 25.1
10-10 17.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 16.5
9-11 6.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 6.3
8-12 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.6 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3%
Lose Out 0.9% 2.2% 16.0 2.2