Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.6 #110
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 #119
Pace 58.9 #364
Improvement -5.5 #349

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #252 C+ D- B D- B-
Defense #33 B+ A- C B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.22 #100 +3.9 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #265 0.79 #132 -1.3 #250
Three Pointers 41% #194 0.96 #257 -1.3 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #132 +1.3 #135
Freethrows 0.25 #332 67% #331 0.17 #349
Second Chance 20.9% #357 1.06 #130 0.22 #345
Turnovers 15.0% #62
Total Offense -3.0 #252

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #236 1.13 #138 +1.6 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.71 #95 +0.2 #171
Three Pointers 42% #139 0.82 #6 +3.4 #50
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #40 +5.3 #40
Freethrows 0.26 #52 71% #98 0.18 #46
Second Chance 24.8% #20 0.89 #29 0.22 #11
Turnovers 17.1% #171
Total Defense +6.6 #33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #70 -0.4% #133
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.0% #157 -10.1% #33
Possession Length 18.9 #330 18.5 #338
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #356 0.12 #40
Improvement -2.0 #304 -3.5 #337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 9.4% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 93.9% 97.4% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 72.4% 83.0% 52.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.4% 9.4% 6.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 53 - 8
Quad 37 - 59 - 13
Quad 49 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 187 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 79% +17  1 - 0 +24 +9 A- D+ B- +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 177 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 77% +4  2 - 0 +3 -4 B F C- +8 B- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 164 Furman W 70 - 54 75% +10  3 - 0 +13 +2 B F A- +12 A+ A C
 Tue, Nov 18 308 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 92% +3  4 - 0 +1 +2 A F+ F +1 C- A C
 Sat, Nov 22 118 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 41% +3  5 - 0 +7 +4 C+ F A+ +3 B+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 279 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 83% +18  6 - 0 +14 +5 C+ F+ A+ +12 A+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 69 Tulsa L 60 - 63 33% -3  6 - 1 +5 -7 D- D+ B +11 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 99 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 57% -2  6 - 2 -3 -4 C+ F A +1 D A- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 128 Oakland W 75 - 63 68% +5  7 - 2 +11 -5 C- F A +15 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 135 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 46% +2  8 - 2 1 - 0 +11 -1 A- F F+ +12 A+ B+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 15% +2  8 - 3 +10 +1 B- D B +8 A+ D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 160 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 74% +3  9 - 3 2 - 0 +7 -2 C D+ C+ +11 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 199 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 81% +1  10 - 3 3 - 0 +3 +7 B B C+ -2 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 270 @Evansville W 62 - 48 74% +12  11 - 3 4 - 0 +11 -4 B F F +16 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 74 Belmont L 65 - 78 45% -8  11 - 4 4 - 1 -8 +5 C+ D- A+ -16 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 121 @Bradley L 69 - 75 42% -2  11 - 5 4 - 2 -0 +1 D+ D A+ -2 C B F
 Tue, Jan 13 135 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 69% -0  11 - 6 4 - 3 -9 -4 F B- A- -6 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 53% -2  11 - 7 4 - 4 -7 -17 F D- A- +8 A+ C D-
 Wed, Jan 21 86 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 29% -5  11 - 8 4 - 5 +4 -8 F C- B+ +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 106 Murray St. W 81 - 76 59% +4  12 - 8 5 - 5 +6 +10 A+ F+ A -3 A D D
 Wed, Jan 28 137 @Southern Illinois L 50 - 65 47% -6  12 - 9 5 - 6 -11 -14 D+ F F +2 D A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 270 Evansville W 71 - 55 88% +16  13 - 9 6 - 6 +7 +11 B+ A+ D+ -0 B- B- F
 Fri, Feb 6 121 Bradley W 67 - 63 65%
 Mon, Feb 9 106 @Murray St. L 69 - 73 37%
 Thu, Feb 12 74 @Belmont L 64 - 71 25%
 Sun, Feb 15 163 Drake W 67 - 60 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 199 @Indiana St. W 66 - 63 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 137 Southern Illinois W 65 - 60 69%
 Wed, Feb 25 86 Illinois St. W 63 - 62 51%
 Sun, Mar 1 163 @Drake W 64 - 63 53%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 10 +4 -3 C+ D- B +7 B+ A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.6 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.8 5.6 2.4 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.4 6.1 7.0 0.5 14.0 4th
5th 0.2 5.1 12.9 2.3 0.0 20.5 5th
6th 0.1 4.0 14.0 5.0 0.1 23.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 9.4 5.2 0.2 17.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 4.6 3.2 0.2 8.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 1.9 8.5 16.9 25.0 25.0 15.8 5.6 1.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 36.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.0% 28.1% 28.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.7
13-7 5.6% 16.9% 16.9% 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 4.7
12-8 15.8% 13.3% 13.3% 12.1 0.1 1.6 0.4 13.7
11-9 25.0% 9.4% 9.4% 12.4 0.0 1.4 0.8 0.1 22.6
10-10 25.0% 6.8% 6.8% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 23.3
9-11 16.9% 4.8% 4.8% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 16.1
8-12 8.5% 2.8% 2.8% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.3
7-13 1.9% 1.9
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 12.4 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.5 51.9 48.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%