Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#121
Pace63.6#308
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#106
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.1% 18.0% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.3
.500 or above 77.0% 82.2% 58.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 79.1% 63.5%
Conference Champion 19.4% 21.6% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.1% 4.6%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round15.9% 17.8% 9.1%
Second Round3.4% 4.0% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 78.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 510 - 10
Quad 49 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2025 183   Cal St. Northridge W 77-69 78%    
  Nov 09, 2025 147   South Dakota St. W 74-67 73%    
  Nov 14, 2025 165   Furman W 72-65 76%    
  Nov 18, 2025 306   Northern Illinois W 78-63 91%    
  Nov 22, 2025 105   @ UC Irvine L 66-69 38%    
  Nov 25, 2025 108   Loyola Chicago L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 06, 2025 124   Wichita St. W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 13, 2025 217   Oakland W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 17, 2025 141   @ Illinois-Chicago W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 22, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 56-67 18%    
  Dec 29, 2025 279   Valparaiso W 76-63 87%    
  Jan 01, 2026 209   Indiana St. W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 04, 2026 234   @ Evansville W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 07, 2026 106   Belmont W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 10, 2026 112   @ Bradley L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 13, 2026 141   Illinois-Chicago W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 17, 2026 279   @ Valparaiso W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 21, 2026 101   @ Illinois St. L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 24, 2026 120   Murray St. W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 28, 2026 139   @ Southern Illinois L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 31, 2026 234   Evansville W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 06, 2026 112   Bradley W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 09, 2026 120   @ Murray St. L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 12, 2026 106   @ Belmont L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 15, 2026 131   Drake W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 18, 2026 209   @ Indiana St. W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 21, 2026 139   Southern Illinois W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 25, 2026 101   Illinois St. W 70-68 58%    
  Mar 01, 2026 131   @ Drake L 62-63 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.2 4.7 4.6 3.1 1.5 0.4 19.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.0 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.4 4.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.4 1.9 0.3 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.1 1.2 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.1 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.2 6.0 7.5 8.8 10.3 10.6 10.4 10.2 8.4 6.8 5.2 3.2 1.5 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 96.8% 3.1    2.9 0.2
17-3 87.6% 4.6    3.8 0.8 0.0
16-4 70.1% 4.7    3.0 1.5 0.2
15-5 38.5% 3.2    1.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
14-6 14.2% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 13.4 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 81.2% 56.5% 24.7% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 56.8%
19-1 1.5% 66.7% 55.8% 10.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 24.6%
18-2 3.2% 53.5% 47.9% 5.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 10.6%
17-3 5.2% 44.2% 42.1% 2.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.9 3.6%
16-4 6.8% 32.3% 31.4% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 4.6 1.3%
15-5 8.4% 25.6% 25.5% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.1%
14-6 10.2% 20.2% 20.2% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.1
13-7 10.4% 14.9% 14.9% 12.4 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.9
12-8 10.6% 11.2% 11.2% 12.6 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.4
11-9 10.3% 8.3% 8.3% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4
10-10 8.8% 4.3% 4.3% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4
9-11 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3
8-12 6.0% 1.7% 1.7% 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9
7-13 4.2% 0.8% 0.8% 18.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 18.5 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.1% 15.4% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 5.0 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 83.9 0.7%