Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#112
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#228
Pace70.9#134
Improvement+4.6#4

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#90
First Shot+2.2#118
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#109
Layup/Dunks-1.3#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#76
Freethrows+2.2#58
Improvement+3.9#3

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#163
First Shot-2.3#257
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#44
Layups/Dunks-1.9#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#306
Freethrows+1.4#103
Improvement+0.7#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 12.1% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.6% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 13.0
.500 or above 59.3% 68.7% 45.4%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 82.5% 59.4%
Conference Champion 7.1% 10.3% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 0.9% 5.8%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round9.1% 11.7% 5.2%
Second Round1.8% 2.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 59.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 33 - 6
Quad 35 - 58 - 11
Quad 47 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 233   Nicholls St. L 58-62 83%     0 - 1 -10.5 -14.0 +3.2
  Nov 11, 2021 104   Vermont L 57-71 59%     0 - 2 -12.7 -13.0 +0.4
  Nov 17, 2021 24   @ Arkansas L 80-93 12%     0 - 3 +3.5 +9.2 -4.7
  Nov 27, 2021 39   @ St. Bonaventure W 90-80 17%     1 - 3 +23.7 +20.7 +2.6
  Dec 01, 2021 213   @ Bradley W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 05, 2021 83   Richmond L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 14, 2021 258   Jackson St. W 74-62 87%    
  Dec 18, 2021 114   @ Marshall L 81-84 39%    
  Dec 22, 2021 171   Liberty W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 02, 2022 245   Evansville W 72-61 84%    
  Jan 05, 2022 204   Valparaiso W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 93   @ Missouri St. L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 11, 2022 174   Indiana St. W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 15, 2022 154   @ Southern Illinois L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 19, 2022 204   @ Valparaiso W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 58   Drake L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 26, 2022 245   @ Evansville W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 241   Illinois St. W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 02, 2022 213   Bradley W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 58   @ Drake L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 09, 2022 154   Southern Illinois W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 13, 2022 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 15, 2022 241   @ Illinois St. W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 20, 2022 93   Missouri St. W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 174   @ Indiana St. W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 33   Loyola Chicago L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 7.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.4 5.2 3.7 1.6 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.8 7.0 3.4 0.6 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.6 6.4 1.7 0.2 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.8 3.3 1.0 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.3 1.8 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 2.8 4.6 7.1 9.6 12.0 13.0 14.3 12.1 9.7 6.3 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 93.5% 1.5    1.2 0.3
15-3 54.5% 1.9    1.0 0.8 0.0
14-4 32.4% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.5% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 98.7% 55.3% 43.4% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
17-1 0.5% 78.5% 43.4% 35.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.9%
16-2 1.6% 53.3% 33.3% 20.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 30.0%
15-3 3.4% 30.6% 22.5% 8.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.4 10.5%
14-4 6.3% 20.1% 19.0% 1.0% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.0 1.3%
13-5 9.7% 13.5% 13.1% 0.4% 12.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 8.4 0.5%
12-6 12.1% 11.9% 11.9% 12.8 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 10.7
11-7 14.3% 8.3% 8.3% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 13.1
10-8 13.0% 6.0% 6.0% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 12.2
9-9 12.0% 3.9% 3.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.6
8-10 9.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.3
7-11 7.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 7.0
6-12 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.4% 8.5% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 90.6 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.4 4.8 47.6 47.6