Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#75
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#100
Pace77.9#23
Improvement+0.8#123

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#48
First Shot+5.4#49
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#105
Layup/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#59
Freethrows+1.4#99
Improvement+1.1#80

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot-0.4#187
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#85
Layups/Dunks+3.0#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#335
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement-0.3#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 18.7% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.4% 17.1% 6.0%
Average Seed 9.8 9.6 9.9
.500 or above 51.4% 69.1% 43.6%
.500 or above in Conference 36.5% 53.8% 28.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 4.1% 11.7%
First Four3.6% 5.7% 2.6%
First Round8.7% 15.6% 5.7%
Second Round3.3% 6.0% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 15
Quad 35 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 288 Holy Cross W 89-79 94%     1 - 0 -0.1 +1.7 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 8 65 Virginia Tech L 101-107 OT 46%     1 - 1 +2.6 +9.8 -5.9
  Tue, Nov 11 252 Penn W 106-81 92%     2 - 1 +16.8 +15.4 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 14 63 @Colorado L 88-97 35%     2 - 2 +2.7 +7.5 -3.7
  Tue, Nov 18 335 New Hampshire W 98-66 97%     3 - 2 +18.3 +21.3 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 22 111 Penn St. W 77-65 65%     4 - 2 +15.7 +2.8 +12.9
  Thu, Nov 27 40 Wisconsin L 83-104 35%     4 - 3 -9.3 +3.1 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 28 15 Florida L 78-90 17%     4 - 4 +5.9 +10.6 -4.1
  Tue, Dec 2 361 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94-64 98%     5 - 4 +12.0 +17.4 -3.5
  Sat, Dec 6 118 Rhode Island W 90-71 76%     6 - 4 +19.1 +18.5 +0.7
  Tue, Dec 9 210 Brown W 86-79 90%     7 - 4 +0.7 +6.8 -6.6
  Sat, Dec 13 53 @Butler L 82-88 30%    
  Fri, Dec 19 64 Seton Hall W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Jan 3 16 @St. John's L 78-91 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 6 Connecticut L 72-82 17%    
  Sat, Jan 10 76 @Xavier L 80-83 40%    
  Tue, Jan 13 39 Villanova L 76-77 46%    
  Fri, Jan 16 56 Creighton W 80-79 52%    
  Mon, Jan 19 88 @Marquette L 82-83 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 91 Georgetown W 85-80 67%    
  Tue, Jan 27 6 @Connecticut L 69-85 7%    
  Fri, Jan 30 39 @Villanova L 73-80 26%    
  Wed, Feb 4 53 Butler W 86-85 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 128 DePaul W 83-75 78%    
  Wed, Feb 11 64 @Seton Hall L 73-77 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 16 St. John's L 81-88 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 128 @DePaul W 80-78 58%    
  Tue, Feb 24 76 Xavier W 83-80 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 56 @Creighton L 77-83 31%    
  Wed, Mar 4 88 Marquette W 85-80 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 91 @Georgetown L 82-83 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.0 4.1 0.8 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.6 4.2 0.8 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.0 6.8 9.9 12.5 13.8 13.7 12.2 9.5 6.8 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 74.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 40.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 94.9% 4.2% 90.7% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7%
15-5 1.1% 89.3% 7.2% 82.1% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 88.5%
14-6 2.2% 76.1% 5.5% 70.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 74.8%
13-7 4.2% 59.3% 5.3% 54.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.7 57.0%
12-8 6.8% 38.0% 3.4% 34.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.0 4.2 35.8%
11-9 9.5% 15.9% 2.4% 13.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 8.0 13.8%
10-10 12.2% 5.4% 1.8% 3.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 11.6 3.6%
9-11 13.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.3%
8-12 13.8% 0.6% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.7
7-13 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5
6-14 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 9.9
5-15 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 6.8
4-16 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.7% 1.4% 9.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 3.2 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.3 9.4%