Providence
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#54
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#18
Pace65.8#263
Improvement-0.9#253

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#43
First Shot+3.7#70
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#80
Layup/Dunks+2.8#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#224
Freethrows+5.0#2
Improvement+0.5#119

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#87
First Shot-0.3#179
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#25
Layups/Dunks-0.8#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#273
Freethrows+2.3#48
Improvement-1.4#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.3% 5.7% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 10.8% 17.5% 6.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.3% 62.6% 41.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.0% 60.4% 39.4%
Average Seed 8.3 7.9 8.7
.500 or above 81.4% 90.4% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 51.1% 58.8% 46.5%
Conference Champion 2.9% 4.4% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 4.2% 7.2%
First Four6.7% 6.2% 7.0%
First Round45.5% 59.4% 37.3%
Second Round20.6% 28.7% 15.9%
Sweet Sixteen6.1% 9.5% 4.1%
Elite Eight1.9% 3.2% 1.0%
Final Four0.6% 1.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Home) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 8
Quad 25 - 49 - 12
Quad 35 - 114 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 237   Fairfield W 80-73 91%     1 - 0 +0.2 -2.9 +2.6
  Nov 11, 2021 309   Sacred Heart W 92-64 95%     2 - 0 +16.8 +12.6 +4.6
  Nov 15, 2021 29   @ Wisconsin W 63-58 25%     3 - 0 +20.3 +4.5 +16.1
  Nov 18, 2021 195   New Hampshire W 69-58 88%     4 - 0 +6.5 +10.2 -0.9
  Nov 22, 2021 47   Northwestern W 77-72 45%     5 - 0 +14.6 +13.6 +1.4
  Nov 23, 2021 40   Virginia L 40-58 41%     5 - 1 -7.3 -15.2 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2021 202   St. Peter's W 85-71 89%     6 - 1 +9.2 +20.8 -10.4
  Dec 01, 2021 17   Texas Tech L 67-70 37%    
  Dec 04, 2021 78   Rhode Island W 71-66 66%    
  Dec 07, 2021 104   Vermont W 68-61 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 348   Central Connecticut St. W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 26   @ Connecticut L 66-74 23%    
  Dec 22, 2021 128   Georgetown W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 29, 2021 28   Seton Hall L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 01, 2022 86   @ DePaul L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 04, 2022 62   @ Marquette L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 61   St. John's W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 11, 2022 66   @ Creighton L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 26   Connecticut L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 18, 2022 28   @ Seton Hall L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 23, 2022 103   Butler W 68-61 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 37   @ Xavier L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 62   Marquette W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 01, 2022 61   @ St. John's L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 06, 2022 128   @ Georgetown W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 86   DePaul W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 15, 2022 6   Villanova L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 20, 2022 103   @ Butler W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 37   Xavier W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 26, 2022 66   Creighton W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 01, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 62-74 12%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.4 2.1 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 3.5 3.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 4.3 4.4 1.6 0.2 12.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 5.1 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 5.0 1.5 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.8 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 8.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 3.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 7.1 9.2 11.3 13.1 12.9 11.2 10.1 7.4 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 75.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 63.1% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1
14-6 10.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.5% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.8% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 4.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 4.6% 100.0% 10.5% 89.4% 6.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 7.4% 98.5% 11.8% 86.7% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 98.3%
12-8 10.1% 93.2% 6.9% 86.2% 8.3 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.6 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 92.6%
11-9 11.2% 84.3% 3.8% 80.5% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 83.7%
10-10 12.9% 65.2% 3.3% 61.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 4.5 64.0%
9-11 13.1% 31.8% 2.4% 29.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.0 8.9 30.2%
8-12 11.3% 8.1% 1.1% 7.0% 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 10.4 7.1%
7-13 9.2% 1.9% 0.7% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.0 1.1%
6-14 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 7.1
5-15 4.2% 4.2
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 49.3% 4.3% 45.0% 8.3 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 3.1 4.4 5.7 7.1 7.9 7.7 7.2 2.7 0.1 50.7 47.0%