Providence
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#25
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#20
Pace67.3#202
Improvement+1.8#16

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#19
First Shot+4.4#58
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#7
Layup/Dunks+2.9#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#242
Freethrows+2.9#19
Improvement+0.8#56

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#50
First Shot+5.5#36
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#228
Layups/Dunks-1.9#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#33
Freethrows+2.4#33
Improvement+1.0#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.5% 7.9% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 29.9% 31.1% 11.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.0% 84.8% 71.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.2% 83.0% 68.8%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 14.9% 15.6% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.7% 5.5% 9.4%
First Round81.5% 82.4% 67.1%
Second Round49.6% 50.3% 37.4%
Sweet Sixteen20.7% 21.1% 14.0%
Elite Eight9.0% 9.2% 6.6%
Final Four3.7% 3.8% 2.7%
Championship Game1.4% 1.4% 0.8%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 6
Quad 24 - 28 - 8
Quad 35 - 113 - 9
Quad 49 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 196   Rider W 66-65 93%     1 - 0 -3.1 -5.4 +2.4
  Nov 12, 2022 252   Northeastern W 89-65 96%     2 - 0 +16.5 +16.8 +0.5
  Nov 15, 2022 340   Stonehill W 100-76 98%     3 - 0 +10.2 +18.7 -9.1
  Nov 19, 2022 34   Miami (FL) L 64-74 53%     3 - 1 +2.1 -4.3 +6.1
  Nov 20, 2022 79   Saint Louis L 73-76 73%     3 - 2 +3.6 +3.7 -0.2
  Nov 23, 2022 337   Merrimack W 71-57 98%     4 - 2 +0.6 +3.3 -1.6
  Nov 26, 2022 346   Columbia W 78-64 99%     5 - 2 -0.8 -1.6 +0.5
  Nov 30, 2022 15   @ TCU L 62-75 33%     5 - 3 +4.4 +0.2 +3.9
  Dec 03, 2022 198   @ Rhode Island W 88-74 86%     6 - 3 +15.3 +17.9 -2.6
  Dec 07, 2022 294   Manhattan W 99-59 97%     7 - 3 +30.3 +9.1 +16.2
  Dec 10, 2022 336   Albany W 93-55 98%     8 - 3 +24.6 +8.6 +14.3
  Dec 17, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall W 71-67 48%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +17.5 +5.8 +11.5
  Dec 20, 2022 8   Marquette W 103-98 2OT 49%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +18.2 +14.7 +2.6
  Dec 29, 2022 86   @ Butler W 72-52 67%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +28.5 +8.3 +21.2
  Jan 01, 2023 124   @ DePaul W 74-59 77%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +20.3 -1.7 +21.1
  Jan 04, 2023 6   Connecticut W 73-61 44%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +26.5 +17.8 +10.5
  Jan 07, 2023 72   St. John's W 83-80 78%     14 - 3 6 - 0 +7.8 +4.4 +3.1
  Jan 14, 2023 11   @ Creighton L 67-73 31%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +12.1 +5.3 +6.7
  Jan 18, 2023 8   @ Marquette L 75-83 29%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +10.7 +13.1 -2.9
  Jan 21, 2023 124   DePaul W 75-64 89%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +10.8 +4.9 +6.5
  Jan 25, 2023 86   Butler W 79-58 82%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +24.0 +13.1 +12.0
  Jan 29, 2023 62   @ Villanova W 70-65 57%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +16.2 +10.2 +6.6
  Feb 01, 2023 19   @ Xavier L 83-85 OT 36%     17 - 6 9 - 3 +14.6 +12.7 +1.9
  Feb 08, 2023 186   Georgetown W 82-65 94%    
  Feb 11, 2023 72   @ St. John's W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 14, 2023 11   Creighton W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 62   Villanova W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 22, 2023 6   @ Connecticut L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 26, 2023 186   @ Georgetown W 79-68 85%    
  Mar 01, 2023 19   Xavier W 80-78 58%    
  Mar 04, 2023 41   Seton Hall W 70-65 68%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.2 8.0 2.3 14.9 1st
2nd 0.4 5.6 14.2 4.6 0.2 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.8 15.5 7.2 0.2 27.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.5 12.2 7.4 0.6 23.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.7 1.8 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.0 19.2 28.9 26.2 12.8 2.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 92.1% 2.3    1.6 0.7 0.0
16-4 62.8% 8.0    2.4 4.2 1.4 0.1
15-5 16.1% 4.2    0.4 1.6 1.7 0.5
14-6 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 4.4 6.5 3.3 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.5% 99.9% 15.5% 84.4% 3.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 12.8% 99.2% 12.5% 86.7% 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.1 4.5 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
15-5 26.2% 96.1% 11.5% 84.6% 6.5 0.1 0.9 4.3 7.1 7.8 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 95.6%
14-6 28.9% 88.1% 10.1% 78.0% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.2 7.6 5.2 2.6 0.6 3.4 86.8%
13-7 19.2% 71.0% 8.6% 62.3% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 3.5 4.0 2.2 0.0 5.6 68.2%
12-8 8.0% 49.5% 7.9% 41.7% 10.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.0 4.0 45.2%
11-9 2.0% 26.0% 6.3% 19.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.5 21.0%
10-10 0.3% 11.6% 7.3% 4.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.6%
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 84.0% 10.4% 73.7% 7.3 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.8 9.7 12.7 15.8 14.4 10.4 8.4 5.0 0.1 16.0 82.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 99.9% 3.2 2.8 17.6 42.7 31.4 4.9 0.6 0.1