Creighton
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#11
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#40
Pace69.8#124
Improvement+1.2#52

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#27
First Shot+7.0#21
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#168
Layup/Dunks+4.7#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#45
Freethrows+0.9#108
Improvement-0.1#219

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#17
First Shot+5.8#31
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#11
Layups/Dunks+0.5#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#57
Freethrows+5.0#1
Improvement+1.3#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 3.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 23.6% 26.5% 9.4%
Top 6 Seed 55.5% 59.6% 35.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.0% 90.8% 80.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.6% 88.8% 76.6%
Average Seed 6.0 5.8 7.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 16.4% 18.8% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 2.3% 5.3%
First Round88.0% 90.0% 78.4%
Second Round66.0% 68.4% 54.9%
Sweet Sixteen36.2% 38.2% 26.9%
Elite Eight18.4% 19.5% 13.1%
Final Four9.2% 9.8% 6.4%
Championship Game4.4% 4.7% 3.1%
National Champion2.0% 2.1% 1.4%

Next Game: Villanova (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 9
Quad 35 - 115 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 266   St. Thomas W 72-60 98%     1 - 0 +3.7 -4.7 +9.0
  Nov 10, 2022 322   North Dakota W 96-61 99%     2 - 0 +23.1 +17.6 +6.0
  Nov 14, 2022 326   Holy Cross W 94-65 99%     3 - 0 +16.9 +13.1 +2.6
  Nov 17, 2022 158   UC Riverside W 80-51 94%     4 - 0 +26.7 +11.1 +17.6
  Nov 21, 2022 53   Texas Tech W 76-65 70%     5 - 0 +20.8 +16.8 +5.2
  Nov 22, 2022 18   Arkansas W 90-87 56%     6 - 0 +16.9 +16.8 -0.2
  Nov 23, 2022 9   Arizona L 79-81 48%     6 - 1 +13.8 +7.8 +6.2
  Dec 01, 2022 10   @ Texas L 67-72 38%     6 - 2 +13.5 +0.3 +13.4
  Dec 04, 2022 94   Nebraska L 53-63 88%     6 - 3 -7.5 -17.6 +10.3
  Dec 10, 2022 81   BYU L 80-83 80%     6 - 4 +3.6 +0.7 +3.3
  Dec 12, 2022 66   Arizona St. L 71-73 75%     6 - 5 +6.4 +5.4 +1.0
  Dec 16, 2022 8   @ Marquette L 58-69 37%     6 - 6 0 - 1 +7.7 -10.0 +17.9
  Dec 22, 2022 86   Butler W 78-56 87%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +25.0 +12.3 +13.9
  Dec 25, 2022 124   DePaul W 80-65 92%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +14.8 +2.5 +11.7
  Jan 03, 2023 41   Seton Hall W 83-61 76%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +30.0 +20.4 +10.4
  Jan 07, 2023 6   @ Connecticut L 60-69 33%     9 - 7 3 - 2 +11.0 +0.3 +10.1
  Jan 11, 2023 19   @ Xavier L 87-90 45%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +13.6 +11.6 +2.3
  Jan 14, 2023 25   Providence W 73-67 69%     10 - 8 4 - 3 +16.2 +5.5 +10.9
  Jan 17, 2023 86   @ Butler W 73-52 75%     11 - 8 5 - 3 +29.5 +12.9 +18.6
  Jan 25, 2023 72   St. John's W 104-76 84%     12 - 8 6 - 3 +32.8 +26.9 +4.0
  Jan 28, 2023 19   Xavier W 84-67 66%     13 - 8 7 - 3 +28.1 +15.4 +13.2
  Feb 01, 2023 186   @ Georgetown W 63-53 89%     14 - 8 8 - 3 +11.8 -7.7 +19.9
  Feb 04, 2023 62   Villanova W 72-62 83%    
  Feb 08, 2023 41   @ Seton Hall W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 6   Connecticut W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 14, 2023 25   @ Providence L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 18, 2023 72   @ St. John's W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 21, 2023 8   Marquette W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 25, 2023 62   @ Villanova W 69-65 65%    
  Mar 01, 2023 186   Georgetown W 82-63 96%    
  Mar 04, 2023 124   @ DePaul W 79-69 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.0 8.9 3.3 16.4 1st
2nd 0.4 5.1 12.7 4.5 0.1 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.6 14.5 6.8 0.2 26.3 3rd
4th 0.2 3.9 12.0 6.5 0.5 23.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.7 2.1 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.1 9.7 19.0 26.3 24.1 13.6 3.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 96.1% 3.3    2.4 0.8 0.0
16-4 65.4% 8.9    2.6 4.7 1.6 0.1
15-5 16.5% 4.0    0.4 1.5 1.6 0.5
14-6 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 5.4 7.0 3.3 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.2 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.1 100.0%
16-4 13.6% 99.9% 21.5% 78.4% 3.7 0.1 0.8 4.9 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 24.1% 99.2% 19.4% 79.9% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.1 8.7 5.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.1%
14-6 26.3% 95.3% 17.0% 78.3% 6.4 0.1 1.0 4.3 8.3 7.2 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.2 94.3%
13-7 19.0% 84.2% 15.4% 68.8% 7.8 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.1 4.5 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.0 81.3%
12-8 9.7% 60.8% 13.1% 47.7% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 2.0 1.6 0.1 3.8 54.9%
11-9 3.1% 33.0% 12.4% 20.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 23.5%
10-10 0.7% 13.3% 11.1% 2.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5%
9-11 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 89.0% 17.6% 71.4% 6.0 0.7 2.5 7.8 12.6 15.6 16.4 13.1 8.6 4.7 4.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 86.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 2.2 17.8 45.8 33.0 3.4