Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.1 #38
Expected Predictive Rating +10.8 #56
Pace 68.0 #229
Improvement +4.0 #13

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #39 B C- C B C+
Defense #42 A- A+ B D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.30 #54 -0.6 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #298 0.71 #221 -2.5 #295
Three Pointers 52% #17 1.09 #84 +7.7 #16
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #73 +4.6 #70
Freethrows 15.2 #285 76% #79 11.6 #245
Second Chance 30.5% #189 1.02 #207 0.31 #186
Turnovers 15.0% #81
Total Offense +7.5 #39

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.04 #55 +1.2 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #49 0.61 #31 -0.2 #204
Three Pointers 34% #343 0.92 #79 +5.3 #24
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #32 +6.3 #31
Freethrows 10.0 #3 70% #95 7.0 #2
Second Chance 28.2% #107 0.92 #56 0.26 #51
Turnovers 15.5% #252
Total Defense +5.7 #42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #144 -1% #93
Shot Type Make % Effect 8.1% #68 -11.4% #31
Possession Length 17.1 #167 17.9 #286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #22 0.11 #23
Improvement +2.7 #23 +1.3 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 2.4% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 12.1% 4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.1% 72.2% 49.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.8% 69.4% 45.8%
Average Seed 8.5 8.3 8.9
.500 or above 93.6% 97.6% 89.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 97.3% 87.9%
Conference Champion 5.4% 7.9% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four9.6% 9.0% 10.2%
First Round56.3% 67.7% 44.2%
Second Round30.4% 37.8% 22.6%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 10.0% 5.3%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.5% 2.0%
Final Four0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 27 - 210 - 12
Quad 35 - 115 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 293 South Dakota W 92-76 97%     11.9   1 - 0 +5.7 +8.1 -3.0
  Tue, Nov 11 6 @Gonzaga L 63-90 15%     -11.3   1 - 1 -2.8 -2.5 +0.9
  Fri, Nov 14 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-45 99%     18.0   2 - 1 +23.8 +12.3 +14.9
  Wed, Nov 19 322 North Dakota W 75-60 98%     8.8   3 - 1 +2.2 +3.7 -0.2
  Mon, Nov 24 27 Baylor L 74-81 43%     -5.3   3 - 2 +8.0 +7.3 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 25 4 Iowa St. L 60-78 19%     -10.2   3 - 3 +4.4 +0.7 +3.2
  Thu, Nov 27 55 Oregon W 76-66 63%     5.8   4 - 3 +19.7 +9.4 +10.6
  Tue, Dec 2 216 Nicholls St. W 96-76 95%     15.3   5 - 3 +13.6 +22.4 -8.3
  Sun, Dec 7 26 @Nebraska L 50-71 32%     -13.8   5 - 4 -3.0 -9.6 +4.6
  Sat, Dec 13 69 Kansas St. L 76-83 78%     -7.7   5 - 5 -1.9 +7.8 -10.0
  Wed, Dec 17 99 @Xavier W 98-57 68%     21.3   6 - 5 1 - 0 +49.4 +25.0 +22.3
  Sat, Dec 20 108 Marquette W 84-63 86%     13.6   7 - 5 2 - 0 +22.3 +5.0 +15.4
  Mon, Dec 22 217 Utah Tech W 92-69 95%     10.7   8 - 5 +16.6 +13.7 +2.3
  Tue, Dec 30 50 Butler W 89-85 70%     6.8   9 - 5 3 - 0 +11.8 +15.6 -3.9
  Sun, Jan 4 54 @Seton Hall W 70-69 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 34 @Villanova L 68-71 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 18 St. John's L 77-78 47%    
  Tue, Jan 13 102 Georgetown W 82-71 84%    
  Fri, Jan 16 80 @Providence W 83-80 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 99 Xavier W 81-70 84%    
  Tue, Jan 27 108 @Marquette W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 5 Connecticut L 68-74 29%    
  Wed, Feb 4 102 @Georgetown W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 54 Seton Hall W 72-66 72%    
  Wed, Feb 11 107 @DePaul W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 34 Villanova W 71-68 60%    
  Wed, Feb 18 5 @Connecticut L 65-77 15%    
  Sat, Feb 21 18 @St. John's L 74-81 26%    
  Wed, Feb 25 107 DePaul W 78-66 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 80 Providence W 86-77 79%    
  Wed, Mar 4 50 @Butler L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.7 6.8 5.1 1.5 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.9 8.9 9.2 4.4 0.8 0.0 28.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.2 8.9 5.8 1.9 0.3 23.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.1 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.2 8.1 12.3 15.4 16.6 16.0 12.2 7.2 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 88.1% 1.0    0.6 0.3
17-3 55.8% 1.9    1.0 0.9 0.1
16-4 19.5% 1.4    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 5.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.5 2.2 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.5% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.2% 98.5% 17.0% 81.4% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.2%
15-5 12.2% 94.3% 10.0% 84.3% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.6 3.5 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.7 93.7%
14-6 16.0% 86.6% 8.9% 77.7% 8.7 0.0 0.5 1.7 4.0 3.9 3.0 0.8 2.2 85.3%
13-7 16.6% 73.0% 8.4% 64.6% 9.4 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.4 4.4 1.9 0.0 4.5 70.5%
12-8 15.4% 49.7% 5.2% 44.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 3.2 0.1 7.8 46.9%
11-9 12.3% 26.2% 3.5% 22.7% 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.2 9.1 23.5%
10-10 8.1% 7.4% 2.3% 5.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 7.5 5.2%
9-11 4.2% 1.9% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
8-12 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 1.9
7-13 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.1% 7.7% 53.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.7 8.1 11.6 12.1 12.2 8.3 0.4 0.0 38.9 57.8%