Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#185
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.7% 3.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.6% 9.7% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 24.6% 24.8% 5.5%
Top 6 Seed 40.9% 41.1% 15.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.5% 72.8% 40.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.0% 69.3% 38.1%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.2
.500 or above 87.6% 87.9% 57.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.8% 79.0% 54.3%
Conference Champion 12.2% 12.3% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.6% 4.2%
First Four5.1% 5.1% 4.1%
First Round70.2% 70.4% 38.3%
Second Round51.1% 51.4% 21.9%
Sweet Sixteen25.0% 25.2% 7.8%
Elite Eight11.3% 11.4% 2.7%
Final Four5.0% 5.0% 0.4%
Championship Game2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2025 294   South Dakota W 96-71 99%    
  Nov 11, 2025 19   @ Gonzaga L 76-80 34%    
  Nov 14, 2025 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 86-52 99.9%   
  Nov 19, 2025 315   North Dakota W 89-62 99%    
  Nov 24, 2025 23   Baylor L 70-71 49%    
  Nov 25, 2025 20   Iowa St. L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 02, 2025 233   Nicholls St. W 83-61 97%    
  Dec 07, 2025 60   @ Nebraska W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 13, 2025 57   Kansas St. W 75-67 77%    
  Dec 17, 2025 50   @ Xavier W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 20, 2025 43   Marquette W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 22, 2025 271   Utah Tech W 84-60 98%    
  Dec 30, 2025 66   Butler W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 04, 2026 101   @ Seton Hall W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 07, 2026 39   @ Villanova L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 10, 2026 8   St. John's L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 13, 2026 69   Georgetown W 78-68 80%    
  Jan 16, 2026 59   @ Providence W 73-70 58%    
  Jan 21, 2026 50   Xavier W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 27, 2026 43   @ Marquette L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 31, 2026 4   Connecticut L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 04, 2026 69   @ Georgetown W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 07, 2026 101   Seton Hall W 74-61 86%    
  Feb 11, 2026 84   @ DePaul W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 14, 2026 39   Villanova W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 18, 2026 4   @ Connecticut L 65-75 21%    
  Feb 21, 2026 8   @ St. John's L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 25, 2026 84   DePaul W 79-67 83%    
  Feb 28, 2026 59   Providence W 76-67 76%    
  Mar 04, 2026 66   @ Butler W 75-72 61%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.8 3.2 2.7 1.2 0.3 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.3 5.2 4.3 1.8 0.3 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.6 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.4 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.3 1.3 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.9 5.2 7.0 8.8 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.0 9.2 7.8 5.1 3.0 1.2 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
18-2 89.1% 2.7    2.1 0.5 0.0
17-3 63.6% 3.2    2.0 1.1 0.1
16-4 36.3% 2.8    1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 15.5% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.5 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 51.2% 48.8% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.0% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.9 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.1% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.8% 99.9% 25.4% 74.5% 3.5 0.5 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 9.2% 99.7% 18.6% 81.1% 4.5 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 11.0% 98.5% 14.1% 84.4% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.3%
13-7 11.2% 95.8% 10.9% 84.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 95.3%
12-8 11.0% 88.4% 6.4% 82.0% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.3 87.6%
11-9 10.2% 74.6% 5.0% 69.6% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.6 73.2%
10-10 8.8% 53.8% 3.0% 50.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.0 4.1 52.3%
9-11 7.0% 26.7% 1.2% 25.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 5.1 25.9%
8-12 5.2% 8.2% 0.5% 7.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 7.7%
7-13 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 1.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.0%
6-14 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.2%
5-15 1.5% 1.5
4-16 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 72.5% 11.5% 61.1% 5.9 3.7 5.9 7.0 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.4 7.5 6.4 6.0 3.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 27.5 69.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.4 12.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0