Creighton
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#29
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#26
Pace69.1#155
Improvement+4.4#27

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#35
First Shot+10.0#5
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#333
Layup/Dunks+4.5#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.5#2
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement+1.5#106

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#23
First Shot+8.2#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#228
Layups/Dunks+3.3#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#84
Freethrows+5.3#1
Improvement+3.0#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 3.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 9.7% 23.6% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 37.2% 62.1% 26.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.0% 99.7% 97.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.6% 99.6% 96.8%
Average Seed 6.8 5.8 7.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 31.3% 73.4% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round97.9% 99.7% 97.1%
Second Round62.4% 71.2% 58.6%
Sweet Sixteen23.0% 31.1% 19.5%
Elite Eight9.1% 12.2% 7.8%
Final Four3.3% 4.6% 2.8%
Championship Game1.0% 1.5% 0.8%
National Champion0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 6
Quad 27 - 313 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 266   UT Rio Grande Valley W 99-86 97%     1 - 0 +4.6 +12.5 -9.1
  Nov 10, 2024 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 96-70 99%     2 - 0 +13.4 +7.5 +3.1
  Nov 13, 2024 289   Houston Christian W 78-43 98%     3 - 0 +25.5 +2.4 +24.4
  Nov 16, 2024 235   UMKC W 79-56 97%     4 - 0 +16.4 +3.7 +12.5
  Nov 22, 2024 42   Nebraska L 63-74 70%     4 - 1 -1.7 -6.2 +4.7
  Nov 26, 2024 57   San Diego St. L 53-71 69%     4 - 2 -8.2 -7.4 -2.2
  Nov 27, 2024 18   Texas A&M L 73-77 43%     4 - 3 +12.5 +8.5 +4.1
  Nov 30, 2024 89   Notre Dame W 80-76 79%     5 - 3 +10.3 +9.0 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 10   Kansas W 76-63 46%     6 - 3 +28.8 +12.9 +15.9
  Dec 07, 2024 97   UNLV W 83-65 87%     7 - 3 +20.6 +16.3 +5.2
  Dec 14, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 75-83 22%     7 - 4 +14.9 +5.0 +10.5
  Dec 18, 2024 78   @ Georgetown L 57-81 69%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -14.3 -5.9 -9.1
  Dec 21, 2024 40   Villanova W 86-79 70%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +16.4 +26.1 -8.8
  Dec 31, 2024 13   St. John's W 57-56 49%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +15.9 +0.1 +15.9
  Jan 03, 2025 24   @ Marquette L 71-79 39%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +9.7 +6.1 +3.7
  Jan 11, 2025 66   @ Butler W 80-76 65%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +14.7 +10.8 +3.9
  Jan 14, 2025 77   Providence W 84-64 82%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +24.9 +10.5 +14.0
  Jan 18, 2025 28   @ Connecticut W 68-63 40%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +22.3 +14.3 +9.0
  Jan 21, 2025 115   @ DePaul W 73-49 81%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +29.5 +7.5 +23.4
  Jan 25, 2025 174   Seton Hall W 79-54 94%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +22.0 +16.3 +8.4
  Jan 29, 2025 46   Xavier W 86-77 71%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +18.0 +19.8 -1.6
  Feb 01, 2025 40   @ Villanova W 62-60 51%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +16.4 -4.4 +20.9
  Feb 05, 2025 77   @ Providence W 80-69 68%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +20.8 +10.2 +10.5
  Feb 08, 2025 24   Marquette W 77-67 58%     18 - 6 11 - 2 +22.7 +23.4 +0.9
  Feb 11, 2025 28   Connecticut L 66-70 59%     18 - 7 11 - 3 +8.3 -0.6 +8.7
  Feb 16, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 68-73 30%    
  Feb 23, 2025 78   Georgetown W 74-64 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 115   DePaul W 79-65 92%    
  Mar 01, 2025 46   @ Xavier W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 174   @ Seton Hall W 73-60 88%    
  Mar 08, 2025 66   Butler W 79-70 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.7 17.7 9.7 31.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 6.8 28.9 15.4 51.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 8.4 3.5 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 1.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 4.2 16.4 36.2 33.1 9.7 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 9.7    7.9 1.9
16-4 53.5% 17.7    5.0 10.7 2.0
15-5 10.3% 3.7    0.2 1.5 1.7 0.4
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 31.3% 31.3 13.0 14.1 3.7 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 9.7% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 4.4 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
16-4 33.1% 99.7% 20.8% 78.8% 6.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 5.6 8.7 9.5 4.1 0.8 0.0 0.1 99.6%
15-5 36.2% 98.5% 19.1% 79.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.9 11.2 10.3 4.8 0.8 0.0 0.6 98.1%
14-6 16.4% 94.9% 14.2% 80.7% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.8 94.0%
13-7 4.2% 90.2% 8.8% 81.4% 8.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.4 89.3%
12-8 0.4% 88.6% 8.6% 80.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 87.5%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.0% 19.1% 78.9% 6.8 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.6 10.3 17.3 24.6 21.2 11.5 3.3 0.3 2.0 97.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 2.8 6.6 31.3 41.3 17.0 3.5 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 100.0% 4.3 0.5 3.2 17.6 37.6 30.8 10.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0% 100.0% 5.1 7.3 21.5 33.7 29.4 6.9 1.3