Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.4 #57
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 #67
Pace 67.2 #227
Improvement -3.5 #324

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #47 B C- B+ C- C
Defense #108 B- C+ D+ A+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 1.38 #12 +0.5 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #285 0.79 #128 -1.6 #263
Three Pointers 51% #18 1.06 #113 +6.2 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #51 +5.2 #51
Freethrows 0.27 #287 75% #83 0.20 #238
Second Chance 28.7% #240 1.02 #189 0.29 #225
Turnovers 13.8% #33
Total Offense +7.3 #47

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 1.10 #104 +1.0 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #22 0.70 #83 -2.0 #322
Three Pointers 33% #353 1.01 #170 +4.1 #32
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #82 +3.1 #82
Freethrows 0.20 #3 70% #57 0.14 #3
Second Chance 28.4% #93 1.00 #136 0.28 #102
Turnovers 15.1% #274
Total Defense +2.1 #108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #161 -1.8% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.5% #45 -4.2% #91
Possession Length 17.4 #188 17.9 #292
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #37 0.10 #12
Improvement +1.2 #117 -4.7 #356

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 18.7% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.7% 16.3% 5.9%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 10.7
.500 or above 66.5% 82.0% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 80.0% 49.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four6.9% 9.7% 4.5%
First Round8.8% 13.1% 5.1%
Second Round2.8% 4.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 25 - 48 - 15
Quad 34 - 112 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 285 South Dakota W 92 - 76 95% +12  1 - 0 +6 +8 F+ A+ D -3 C B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 11 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 11% -11  1 - 1 -4 -1 B- F+ F -2 D A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  2 - 1 +25 +14 A- B B +14 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 282 North Dakota W 75 - 60 95% +9  3 - 1 +5 +2 F A+ B+ +5 B B+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 44 Baylor L 74 - 81 41% -5  3 - 2 +5 +8 A- D+ D- -3 A+ F C
 Tue, Nov 25 5 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 14% -10  3 - 3 +3 -0 B+ F D +3 A+ F+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 78 Oregon W 76 - 66 58% +6  4 - 3 +17 +9 C+ F A+ +8 A+ B D-
 Tue, Dec 2 249 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 94% +15  5 - 3 +12 +22 A+ B- A- -10 F+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 12 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 12% -14  5 - 4 +1 -7 F+ C B- +6 A B C
 Sat, Dec 13 85 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 71% -8  5 - 5 -3 +9 C+ D- A+ -12 B D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 84 @Xavier W 98 - 57 49% +21  6 - 5 1 - 0 +51 +25 A+ C- C+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 96 Marquette W 84 - 63 74% +14  7 - 5 2 - 0 +24 +5 B- D+ A +17 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 210 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 92% +11  8 - 5 +17 +14 A+ F C+ +2 C D A-
 Tue, Dec 30 66 Butler W 89 - 85 65% +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +9 +14 A- A C+ -5 B+ B- C-
 Sun, Jan 4 52 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 36% +5  9 - 6 3 - 1 +11 -2 D D+ A+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 32 @Villanova W 76 - 72 23% -2  10 - 6 4 - 1 +21 +20 A+ B+ A+ +2 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 20 St. John's L 73 - 90 31% -13  10 - 7 4 - 2 -3 +10 A+ F A+ -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 77 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 69% -1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +7 +22 A+ C- A+ -15 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 67 @Providence L 88 - 93 43% -1  11 - 8 5 - 3 +6 +9 D+ B+ B -2 A F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 84 Xavier W 94 - 93 71% +1  12 - 8 6 - 3 +5 +20 A+ D- A+ -15 F C C
 Tue, Jan 27 96 @Marquette L 62 - 86 52% -17  12 - 9 6 - 4 -15 -5 C F C -10 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 7 Connecticut L 58 - 85 21% -11  12 - 10 6 - 5 -9 +5 B- C+ B+ -19 C F D-
 Wed, Feb 4 77 @Georgetown L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 52 Seton Hall W 70 - 68 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 95 @DePaul W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 32 Villanova L 71 - 73 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 7 @Connecticut L 65 - 80 9%
 Sat, Feb 21 20 @St. John's L 74 - 85 15%
 Wed, Feb 25 95 DePaul W 77 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 67 Providence W 87 - 83 65%
 Wed, Mar 4 66 @Butler L 78 - 80 43%
Totals 16 - 15 10 - 10 +9 +7 B C- B+ +2 B- C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.6 2.6 0.6 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.7 13.3 16.5 7.9 1.3 0.1 41.8 4th
5th 1.8 12.0 11.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 28.7 5th
6th 0.2 5.3 5.6 0.7 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 1.1 3.5 0.6 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.5 3.5 11.3 21.0 25.7 21.4 11.8 4.0 0.8 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.8% 85.5% 5.9% 79.6% 9.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 84.6%
13-7 4.0% 65.6% 6.5% 59.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.4 63.3%
12-8 11.8% 36.8% 3.7% 33.1% 10.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.7 0.1 7.5 34.3%
11-9 21.4% 16.2% 2.8% 13.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 0.1 17.9 13.8%
10-10 25.7% 4.7% 2.3% 2.5% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.1 24.4 2.5%
9-11 21.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 20.7 0.2%
8-12 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3
7-13 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.7% 2.2% 10.5% 10.5 87.3 10.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%