Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.8 #50
Expected Predictive Rating +12.5 #48
Pace 73.7 #66
Improvement -1.5 #277

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #51 B C+ A+ B- B+
Defense #69 B A B C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.19 #142 +4.0 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #316 0.76 #163 -2.4 #289
Three Pointers 42% #164 1.13 #57 +3.0 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #70 +4.6 #68
Freethrows 19.9 #71 66% #322 13.2 #144
Second Chance 38.7% #17 1.24 #19 0.48 #7
Turnovers 15.5% #110
Total Offense +6.8 #51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #7 1.09 #97 -3.6 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #199 0.54 #8 +2.4 #42
Three Pointers 32% #354 0.96 #128 +5.2 #27
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #66 +4.0 #66
Freethrows 12.8 #20 71% #148 9.1 #20
Second Chance 29.9% #151 0.90 #44 0.27 #71
Turnovers 17.0% #159
Total Defense +4.0 #69

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #40 1.7% #309
Shot Type Make Effect 6.3% #90 -9.2% #46
Possession Length 15.3 #39 18.2 #318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #72 0.19 #235
Improvement -0.7 #239 -0.8 #239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 3.9% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.3% 56.4% 33.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.7% 54.6% 32.4%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 9.6
.500 or above 94.3% 97.7% 90.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.6% 76.7% 49.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.6% 2.1%
First Four11.3% 11.9% 10.7%
First Round39.2% 49.9% 27.9%
Second Round16.7% 22.1% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 4.3% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.3% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Home) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 49 - 12
Quad 35 - 115 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 337 Southern Indiana W 88-58 98%     18.3   1 - 0 +15.6 +4.7 +8.9
  Sat, Nov 8 356 IU Indianapolis W 112-80 99%     13.5   2 - 0 +14.9 +3.7 +4.0
  Tue, Nov 11 335 Chicago St. W 98-66 98%     24.1   3 - 0 +18.2 +13.8 +3.0
  Sat, Nov 15 35 @SMU L 85-87 29%     0.0   3 - 1 +14.4 +13.3 +1.3
  Fri, Nov 21 85 South Carolina W 79-72 65%     6.5   4 - 1 +13.8 +10.8 +3.1
  Sun, Nov 23 32 Virginia W 80-73 37%     4.8   5 - 1 +21.1 +13.4 +7.8
  Fri, Nov 28 141 Wright St. W 94-69 88%     4.5   6 - 1 +23.0 +14.0 +7.2
  Tue, Dec 2 207 Eastern Michigan W 84-68 93%     6.6   7 - 1 +9.9 +14.2 -3.4
  Sat, Dec 6 51 Boise St. L 68-77 62%     -1.7   7 - 2 -1.3 +4.2 -5.9
  Sat, Dec 13 80 Providence W 113-110 2OT 73%     -0.2   8 - 2 1 - 0 +7.3 +18.2 -11.4
  Tue, Dec 16 5 @Connecticut L 60-79 10%     -9.7   8 - 3 1 - 1 +6.2 +0.8 +5.3
  Sat, Dec 20 57 Northwestern W 61-58 56%     4.4   9 - 3 +12.3 -5.4 +17.9
  Mon, Dec 22 354 NJIT W 101-52 99%     29.1   10 - 3 +32.2 +19.7 +10.7
  Tue, Dec 30 39 @Creighton L 85-89 31%     -6.8   10 - 4 1 - 2 +12.1 +16.3 -4.1
  Sat, Jan 3 34 Villanova W 73-72 51%    
  Tue, Jan 6 18 St. John's L 79-82 38%    
  Wed, Jan 14 98 @Xavier W 80-78 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 54 @Seton Hall L 71-73 42%    
  Tue, Jan 20 106 DePaul W 79-70 81%    
  Fri, Jan 23 107 Marquette W 84-74 81%    
  Wed, Jan 28 18 @St. John's L 76-85 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 101 Georgetown W 84-75 79%    
  Wed, Feb 4 80 @Providence W 86-85 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 107 @Marquette W 81-77 63%    
  Wed, Feb 11 5 Connecticut L 70-78 22%    
  Sun, Feb 15 54 Seton Hall W 74-70 64%    
  Wed, Feb 18 101 @Georgetown W 81-78 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 98 Xavier W 83-75 78%    
  Wed, Feb 25 34 @Villanova L 69-75 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 39 Creighton W 78-77 52%    
  Sat, Mar 7 106 @DePaul W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.2 3.0 0.8 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.2 6.6 4.0 0.8 0.1 18.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 7.6 8.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 22.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.2 6.0 2.0 0.2 19.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 4.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.6 0.4 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.2 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 3.6 7.0 10.2 13.2 15.9 15.9 13.1 9.6 5.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 61.9% 0.1    0.1 0.1
16-4 18.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 7.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 98.8% 20.9% 77.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
15-5 2.5% 98.8% 12.7% 86.1% 6.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.6%
14-6 5.6% 95.9% 8.5% 87.4% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 95.5%
13-7 9.6% 89.8% 5.3% 84.5% 8.8 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.5 2.1 0.5 1.0 89.2%
12-8 13.1% 75.5% 3.7% 71.7% 9.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.8 1.5 3.2 74.5%
11-9 15.9% 59.5% 2.1% 57.5% 10.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 4.2 3.1 0.0 6.4 58.7%
10-10 15.9% 39.2% 2.0% 37.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.1 0.1 9.7 37.9%
9-11 13.2% 14.5% 1.1% 13.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.1 11.3 13.6%
8-12 10.2% 2.5% 0.6% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.0 2.0%
7-13 7.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.3%
6-14 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 45.3% 2.9% 42.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.7 6.4 9.3 13.3 10.0 0.3 0.0 54.7 43.7%