Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.1 #61
Expected Predictive Rating +10.6 #56
Pace 72.7 #78
Improvement -4.1 #331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #55 B- A B- B+ B
Defense #94 B- B- C A- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.22 #109 +4.3 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #303 0.83 #83 -1.8 #277
Three Pointers 42% #161 1.05 #134 +1.1 #139
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #72 +3.6 #72
Freethrows 0.37 #12 71% #228 0.26 #35
Second Chance 36.4% #35 1.25 #12 0.46 #12
Turnovers 14.7% #77
Total Offense +6.4 #55

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.16 #173 -2.6 #268
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #126 0.64 #24 +0.7 #134
Three Pointers 35% #334 0.90 #41 +5.1 #14
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #73 +3.2 #73
Freethrows 0.21 #7 72% #146 0.15 #11
Second Chance 30.0% #154 0.94 #49 0.28 #92
Turnovers 16.6% #171
Total Defense +2.8 #94

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #41 0.3% #191
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.7% #100 -6.6% #62
Possession Length 15.8 #46 18.0 #292
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #73 0.18 #223
Improvement -0.3 #195 -3.8 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 26.8% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.7% 25.4% 12.9%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.5
.500 or above 93.3% 96.7% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 37.8% 45.9% 18.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.4% 7.9%
First Four11.4% 12.9% 7.8%
First Round16.8% 19.7% 9.5%
Second Round5.4% 6.4% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 58 - 13
Quad 35 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 324 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97% +18  1 - 0 +17 +7 B- B+ D +8 B+ A- D+
 Sat, Nov 8 340 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 98% +14  2 - 0 +18 +5 D A+ C +5 B+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 358 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 99% +24  3 - 0 +14 +13 B A+ C- +0 F+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 37 @SMU L 85 - 87 23% +0  3 - 1 +15 +13 A+ B- F +2 D B A+
 Fri, Nov 21 89 South Carolina W 79 - 72 61% +7  4 - 1 +13 +11 C A+ C+ +2 A+ B+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 22 Virginia W 80 - 73 24% +5  5 - 1 +24 +15 A+ C- D +9 A+ B+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 147 Wright St. W 94 - 69 86% +5  6 - 1 +23 +12 A A+ B+ +9 B A B-
 Tue, Dec 2 240 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 93% +7  7 - 1 +9 +14 A- A+ C- -5 C+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 63 Boise St. L 68 - 77 62% -2  7 - 2 -3 +1 C- A A- -5 A+ B- D
 Sat, Dec 13 70 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 65% -0  8 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +17 B A A+ -10 C B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 10% -10  8 - 3 1 - 1 +4 -0 F+ B A+ +4 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 58 Northwestern W 61 - 58 49% +4  9 - 3 +12 -6 D C+ F+ +18 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 332 NJIT W 101 - 52 97% +29  10 - 3 +35 +20 A+ A+ B +14 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 55 @Creighton L 85 - 89 35% -7  10 - 4 1 - 2 +9 +13 C A- C+ -4 C F B
 Sat, Jan 3 33 Villanova L 67 - 85 42% -3  10 - 5 1 - 3 -7 -2 F A+ C -4 D+ A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 19 St. John's L 70 - 84 30% +1  10 - 6 1 - 4 +0 +2 A+ F F -2 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 82 @Xavier L 75 - 89 47% -11  10 - 7 1 - 5 -4 +4 D A+ C -8 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 53 @Seton Hall W 77 - 66 35% +6  11 - 7 2 - 5 +24 +19 A- F A+ +6 A+ C+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 96 DePaul W 87 - 80 73% +8  12 - 7 3 - 5 +10 +15 A+ A B- -6 A+ F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 95 Marquette W 87 - 76 73% +5  13 - 7 4 - 5 +14 +16 C+ A+ A- -2 C- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 19 @St. John's L 70 - 92 15% -11  13 - 8 4 - 6 -2 +15 C+ C A+ -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 31 88 Georgetown W 80 - 74 71%
 Wed, Feb 4 70 @Providence L 87 - 89 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Marquette W 80 - 79 52%
 Wed, Feb 11 10 Connecticut L 70 - 78 23%
 Sun, Feb 15 53 Seton Hall W 72 - 70 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 88 @Georgetown L 77 - 78 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 82 Xavier W 84 - 79 69%
 Wed, Feb 25 33 @Villanova L 70 - 78 23%
 Wed, Mar 4 55 Creighton W 80 - 78 58%
 Sat, Mar 7 96 @DePaul W 76 - 75 52%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 11 +9 +6 B- A B- +3 B- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.0 7.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 18.7 4th
5th 1.4 8.9 10.3 3.4 0.3 24.3 5th
6th 0.9 9.7 11.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 24.6 6th
7th 0.1 4.6 7.6 1.4 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.1 1.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 1.6 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 2.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.4 12.3 20.1 22.6 19.3 12.0 5.0 1.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 96.6% 6.9% 89.7% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.3%
13-7 1.4% 88.0% 5.4% 82.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 87.4%
12-8 5.0% 77.9% 5.4% 72.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.1 76.7%
11-9 12.0% 58.4% 2.9% 55.4% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 3.0 0.0 5.0 57.1%
10-10 19.3% 36.8% 2.3% 34.5% 10.6 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.6 0.0 12.2 35.4%
9-11 22.6% 13.3% 1.6% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.1 19.6 11.9%
8-12 20.1% 3.1% 0.8% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 19.5 2.3%
7-13 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 11.1 0.1 0.0 12.2
6-14 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 5.4
5-15 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.1% 1.8% 21.3% 10.3 76.9 21.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%