Butler
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#87
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#82
Pace65.8#258
Improvement-3.0#361

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#123
First Shot+3.6#74
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#315
Layup/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#120
Freethrows-0.5#227
Improvement-1.5#341

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#66
First Shot+4.6#55
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#222
Layups/Dunks-3.4#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#37
Freethrows+4.7#3
Improvement-1.5#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 14.7 15.8
.500 or above 12.0% 35.4% 9.2%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 3.1% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.7% 3.0%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.3%
First Round1.6% 2.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 80 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 12
Quad 22 - 43 - 16
Quad 34 - 17 - 17
Quad 47 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 347   New Orleans W 89-53 96%     1 - 0 +21.1 -2.3 +19.2
  Nov 14, 2022 42   @ Penn St. L 62-68 23%     1 - 1 +7.5 -5.0 +12.5
  Nov 17, 2022 325   St. Francis (PA) W 95-67 94%     2 - 1 +16.0 +13.2 +2.4
  Nov 19, 2022 296   The Citadel W 89-42 92%     3 - 1 +36.8 +13.8 +24.4
  Nov 23, 2022 1   Tennessee L 45-71 10%     3 - 2 -6.4 -13.6 +6.6
  Nov 24, 2022 80   BYU W 75-70 47%     4 - 2 +11.7 +7.4 +4.2
  Nov 25, 2022 39   North Carolina St. L 61-76 30%     4 - 3 -3.9 -5.3 +0.9
  Nov 30, 2022 26   Kansas St. W 76-64 33%     5 - 3 +22.3 +11.7 +11.0
  Dec 03, 2022 301   Tennessee Tech W 80-66 93%     6 - 3 +3.6 +12.1 -6.5
  Dec 06, 2022 95   Yale W 71-61 62%     7 - 3 +12.6 +3.5 +9.6
  Dec 10, 2022 221   @ California W 82-58 72%     8 - 3 +23.7 +11.9 +12.4
  Dec 17, 2022 6   Connecticut L 46-68 21%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -7.6 -17.4 +8.7
  Dec 22, 2022 11   @ Creighton L 56-78 12%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -3.7 -4.8 -0.1
  Dec 29, 2022 27   Providence L 52-72 33%     8 - 6 0 - 3 -9.8 -14.4 +3.6
  Jan 01, 2023 188   @ Georgetown W 80-51 66%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +30.6 +10.1 +21.9
  Jan 04, 2023 123   DePaul W 78-70 71%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +7.9 +5.0 +3.0
  Jan 07, 2023 47   @ Seton Hall L 51-76 25%     10 - 7 2 - 4 -12.1 -11.2 -1.3
  Jan 10, 2023 68   @ St. John's L 61-77 31%     10 - 8 2 - 5 -5.2 -8.8 +4.5
  Jan 13, 2023 66   Villanova W 79-71 50%     11 - 8 3 - 5 +13.7 +14.0 +0.3
  Jan 17, 2023 11   Creighton L 52-73 25%     11 - 9 3 - 6 -8.1 -9.5 -0.6
  Jan 22, 2023 6   @ Connecticut L 56-86 10%     11 - 10 3 - 7 -10.2 -4.0 -8.0
  Jan 25, 2023 27   @ Providence L 58-79 18%     11 - 11 3 - 8 -5.4 -5.2 -1.3
  Jan 28, 2023 47   Seton Hall L 49-70 43%     11 - 12 3 - 9 -13.4 -9.1 -7.6
  Feb 04, 2023 8   @ Marquette L 67-80 11%    
  Feb 07, 2023 68   St. John's W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 10, 2023 20   Xavier L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 14, 2023 66   @ Villanova L 62-67 30%    
  Feb 19, 2023 188   Georgetown W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 22, 2023 123   @ DePaul W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 28, 2023 8   Marquette L 69-77 25%    
  Mar 04, 2023 20   @ Xavier L 69-80 15%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.8 5.0 5.6 1.8 0.2 13.4 7th
8th 1.2 9.2 10.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 24.0 8th
9th 3.1 17.4 18.6 5.2 0.4 0.0 44.8 9th
10th 1.2 7.6 6.4 1.1 0.0 16.3 10th
11th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 1.6 10.9 24.9 29.7 20.8 9.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.4% 9.3% 2.9% 6.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.6%
9-11 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 2.4
8-12 9.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9
7-13 20.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 20.4
6-14 29.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 29.2
5-15 24.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 24.7
4-16 10.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 10.8
3-17 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6% 1.4% 16.0 1.4