Virginia
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
40  Henry Wynne SO 31:28
62  Chase Weaverling SO 31:36
150  Thomas Madden JR 32:03
173  Brent Demarest FR 32:10
199  Kyle King SR 32:14
202  Zach Herriott JR 32:16
248  Adam Visokay JR 32:25
280  Evan Chiplock JR 32:30
484  Mike Marsella JR 32:57
587  Trevor Hopper SO 33:08
662  Silas Frantz SR 33:16
National Rank #14 of 308
Southeast Region Rank #3 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.7%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 4.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 32.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 83.8%


Regional Champion 31.8%
Top 5 in Regional 95.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Henry Wynne Chase Weaverling Thomas Madden Brent Demarest Kyle King Zach Herriott Adam Visokay Evan Chiplock Mike Marsella Trevor Hopper Silas Frantz
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/26 446 31:38 32:04 31:57 31:41 32:02 31:55 32:27 32:06 31:47
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 491 31:22 31:51 32:04 32:08 32:28 31:52 33:04
ACC Championships 10/30 553 31:29 31:15 32:09 32:35 32:20 33:19 32:49 33:54 35:25 33:18
Southeast Region Championships 11/13 376 31:26 31:30 31:50 32:40 31:36 32:00 32:27
NCAA Championship 11/21 599 31:32 31:30 32:20 32:26 32:30 33:22 32:34





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.7% 13.9 397 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.4 4.4 5.3 6.5 5.7 6.4 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.5 2.9 2.6 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.5 97 31.8 26.5 17.2 12.1 7.4 4.5 0.4 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Henry Wynne 99.3% 43.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5
Chase Weaverling 99.0% 60.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1
Thomas Madden 98.7% 120.1
Brent Demarest 98.7% 136.0
Kyle King 98.7% 148.5
Zach Herriott 98.7% 151.7
Adam Visokay 98.7% 172.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Henry Wynne 7.6 1.9 5.5 7.3 7.5 8.7 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.5 4.7 4.5 3.6 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.6
Chase Weaverling 10.8 0.3 1.6 2.8 4.7 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.5 5.7 4.9 4.7 4.5 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.7 2.0 1.0
Thomas Madden 22.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.2
Brent Demarest 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 3.9 4.5 4.6
Kyle King 28.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.5
Zach Herriott 29.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.3 5.0 4.6
Adam Visokay 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 31.8% 100.0% 31.8 31.8 1
2 26.5% 100.0% 26.5 26.5 2
3 17.2% 100.0% 14.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2 3
4 12.1% 100.0% 4.6 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 12.1 4
5 7.4% 95.1% 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 7.1 5
6 4.5% 84.1% 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 3.8 6
7 0.4% 52.6% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 98.7% 31.8 26.5 14.8 6.5 4.2 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.3 58.3 40.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 91.7% 1.0 0.9
Florida State 91.5% 2.0 1.8
Michigan State 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Louisville 88.3% 1.0 0.9
Furman 88.3% 2.0 1.8
North Carolina St. 87.9% 1.0 0.9
Washington 77.6% 1.0 0.8
Columbia 70.8% 1.0 0.7
Eastern Kentucky 65.9% 1.0 0.7
Tulsa 64.7% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 64.4% 1.0 0.6
Virginia Tech 61.7% 1.0 0.6
Indiana 61.1% 1.0 0.6
Oklahoma 60.8% 2.0 1.2
Boise State 57.0% 1.0 0.6
Illinois 47.5% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Providence 14.1% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 9.0% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 2.0 0.2
Wisconsin 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Portland 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.2% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Duke 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 15.9
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 23.0