Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #28
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #8
New Prairie Regional Rank #3
New Prairie Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.8%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/19 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 378 456 315 391 454 392 422 451 390 392
Team Adjusted Rating 456 315 391 454 388 422 427 384 392
State RankRunnerSeason Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
10  Jakob Kintzele 12 15:43 15:49 15:36 15:38 15:44 15:50 15:54 15:48 15:43 15:41
203  Nathan O'Connor 11 16:54 17:35 17:09 17:18 17:30 17:19 17:18 17:04 16:48 16:47
220  Andrew Smenyak 12 16:58 16:33 16:31 16:52 16:29 16:39 17:14 17:26 17:05 17:25
292  Mathew VanKley 11 17:07 17:38 17:10 17:22 17:42 17:03 17:03 17:06 17:10 17:00
553  Matthew Streeter 9 17:39 17:50 17:16 17:47
599  Kenny Erow 11 17:43 18:05 17:29 17:42 18:07 17:53 17:33 17:43 17:35
684  Sam Winski 12 17:51 17:44 17:42 17:39 18:13
753  Dylan Draves 10 17:57 17:46 16:57 17:16 17:50 17:41 18:46 18:13 18:45
843  Ethan Contreras 9 18:04 18:04 18:12 18:07 17:48 18:13 17:58
947  Will Shook 10 18:11 17:54 17:56 18:36 18:18 17:55 18:22
948  Kyler Haynes 10 18:11 18:03 17:27 18:59 18:13 17:56 18:38 18:05
1,315  Ethan Pape 12 18:38 18:40 18:37
1,366  Travis Kanarski 10 18:41 18:15 19:00 18:49 18:59 18:24
1,411  Dylan Olson 12 18:45 18:52 18:18 18:12 18:28 19:38 19:12
Brendan Hoch 9 19:11 19:08 19:45 19:11 18:58
Timber Whittemore 12 19:26 18:33 19:22 18:34 19:59 20:10




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 20.1 464 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.7 4.8 5.5 6.3 8.7 11.5 12.5 16.2 14.0 11.3
Semi-State 100% 6.7 203 0.4 3.2 7.4 14.6 21.8 21.8 14.2 9.0 5.6 1.7 0.6 0.1
Regionals 100% 2.7 79 0.5 31.9 62.2 4.9 0.6 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.1 75 0.3 93.2 6.1 0.5 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 100% 10.2 1.4 4.0 5.4 5.5 6.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 6.0 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.9 1.5 100.0%
Nathan O'Connor 100% 133.1 3.2%
Andrew Smenyak 100% 140.0 1.9%
Mathew VanKley 100% 156.1 0.2%
Kenny Erow 100% 190.7 0.0%
Sam Winski 100% 196.0 0.0%
Dylan Draves 100% 199.2 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 100% 1.4 37.3 29.1 16.7 8.9 3.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Nathan O'Connor 100% 39.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 98.5%
Andrew Smenyak 100% 44.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 98.3%
Mathew VanKley 100% 57.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 88.7%
Kenny Erow 100% 97.9 5.4%
Sam Winski 100% 106.7 1.5%
Dylan Draves 100% 114.8 0.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 100% 1.0 89.1 9.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Nathan O'Connor 100% 14.9 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 5.8 5.9 8.0 8.5 9.0 8.2 8.4 7.8 5.5 4.8 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.1 1.0 100.0%
Andrew Smenyak 100% 16.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.6 5.3 5.7 7.1 8.0 8.0 8.7 9.3 6.9 7.0 4.7 4.1 3.4 2.6 2.0 100.0%
Mathew VanKley 100% 21.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.8 2.6 4.2 5.1 6.2 7.7 8.5 8.1 7.7 6.8 6.5 5.7 99.7%
Kenny Erow 100% 39.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 55.4%
Sam Winski 100% 43.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 32.2%
Dylan Draves 100% 46.5 18.2%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 1.0 91.1 8.2 0.6 0.1 0.1
Nathan O'Connor 11.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.0 8.0 8.6 9.1 11.2 10.2 11.0 9.1 7.2 4.8 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1
Andrew Smenyak 12.4 0.4 1.4 1.6 2.8 4.8 7.0 7.6 8.6 11.1 11.6 10.3 7.3 6.5 5.2 3.7 3.2 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.5
Mathew VanKley 16.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.9 2.5 4.0 4.7 5.5 8.5 9.6 8.3 8.8 7.4 6.7 6.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 3.0 2.0
Kenny Erow 31.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.6
Sam Winski 34.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6
Dylan Draves 37.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1